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Jan 142011

DSC00648
photo courtesy of Andy in Sunny Daytona

Year Age Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 17 2 Lgs 62 239 197 22 41 5 4 1 19 7 6 33 40 .208 .329 .289 .618
2009 17 DOSL 11 52 39 8 10 0 3 1 5 0 1 11 5 .256 .423 .487 .910
2009 17 GULF 51 187 158 14 31 5 1 0 14 7 5 22 35 .196 .303 .241 .543
2010 18 3 Lgs 65 268 234 36 71 13 4 2 26 5 1 31 42 .303 .390 .419 .808
2010 18 GULF 43 189 158 33 52 10 4 2 22 4 1 28 22 .329 .436 .481 .917
2010 18 SALL 14 51 48 3 12 3 0 0 2 1 0 3 15 .250 .294 .313 .607
2010 18 FLOR 8 28 28 0 7 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 .250 .250 .250 .500
2 Seasons 127 507 431 58 112 18 8 3 45 12 7 64 82 .260 .361 .360 .721
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/14/2011.

It’s been a while since I posted anything prospect-related, so I figured this might not be a bad time to take a quick look at one of my favorite sleeper prospects: Ramon Flores. A 5’10″ lefty swinger who plays left field, Flores received a bonus around $775,000 when he signed with the Yankees out of Venezuela in 2008 at age 16. He made his debut in 2009 at age 17, raking for 11 games in the Dominican Summer League, before coming stateside and struggling, posting a .543 OPS.  There’s not a lot of info out on Flores yet, but he’s definitely somebody whom I will be keeping an eye on during next season.

In 2010, at age 18, Flores made impressive work of the Gulf Coast League, posting a .329/.436/.481 line, good for a .917 OPS (despite only hitting 2 home runs). The most important statistic to me, however, was his walk rate. He walked 28 times in 43 GCL games, while striking out just 22 times.  After 43 strong games, Flore was further challenged by a promotion to the low-A Sally league for 14 games (in which he posted a .607 OPS) and an 8-game stint in the high-A Florida State League (.500 OPS).  Although he clearly struggled at the higher levels, these are much tougher levels of competition than any 18 year-old would be expected to face (especially one who’s not considered an elite prospect), and the fact that he was able to perform acceptably in low-A was encouraging.

Flores is kind of an odd prospect because he’s a bit of a tweener: not fast enough to play centerfield, but not powerful enough to be a prototypical corner outfielder.  None of his tools particularly stand out as elite, but his walk rate in the GCL this season is indicative of an advanced approach at the plate, with good contact skills to match.  Plate discipline is a skill that tends to remain as a hitter advances through the minors, which bodes well for Flores’ future.  If he’s really 5’10″ 150 as his baseball reference page indicates, he probably has some room to add muscle and power, while not getting too big for the outfield. I’m not sure he’ll ever be a big power guy, but he could become a doubles machine who can get on base frequently.
If Flores can continue to maintain his polished hitting approach, he should be successful in his return to full season ball (he’ll likely start the season with Charleston in the Sally League), and if he performs well, the Yankees could be aggressive with him again. I wish there was more scouting info to go on, but from the numbers, I consider Flores to be an underrated prospect (he probably won’t be in many people’s top 30), who could shoot up the Yankee list with a strong season. Of course, the jump from the GCL to low-A is a big one, which will be a big test for the talented teenager, though having the more-hyped Gary Sanchez on the team could help take the pressure off.

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog)

All winter, Brian Cashman has taken his lumps for patiently biding his time during the off season. However, those criticism were nothing compared to harsh rebukes he has received in the hours since John Heyman announced that the Yankees had signed Rafael Soriano.

Before delving into the wisdom of the signing, the pink elephant in the room is Cashman’s earlier insistence that the Yankees would not surrender a first round pick for any free agent not named Cliff Lee. So, either Cashman was holding his cards close to the vest (i.e., lying), had a serious change of heart, or was overruled by another in the organization.

If Cashman was being deceptive, well, good for him. His chief responsibility is to make the Yankees better, so if that means throwing up a smoke screen or two, so be it. Unfortunately, it’s hard to see where the Yankees benefitted from an improved negotiation position, but then again, the full details of the contract and pursuant negotiations have not been revealed. Nonetheless, a general managers’ commandments are made to be broken when the right (or sometimes wrong) deal comes along. Just ask Bubba Crosby.

As mentioned, the exact terms of the Soriano contract have not yet been divulged, so in the details may be the reason why Cashman did an about face from his earlier vow.  Maybe he believed that Soriano would return to the Rays at a discount, or sign with a wild card competitor? Perhaps further evaluation of the draft revealed less than promising prospects for the 31st pick? Maybe it was Andy Pettitte’s latest display of indecision that pushed his hand? Or, it could be that Cashman has other contingent moves in place (e.g., moving Joba Chamberlain back to the rotation, or a trade that involves the team’s now impressive bullpen depth)? Regardless, just because Cashman changed his mind doesn’t mean he panicked.

The third option is the one that is cause for real concern. In his daily column, Buster Olney hinted at a divide within the Yankees organization, while Peter Gammons tweeted that Randy Levine was the driving force behind the signing. Even Mariano Rivera has been credited with holding sway. If true, that could be disastrous for the Yankees. Whether you like Cashman or not, the Yankees have seemed to benefit from having one coherent voice on baseball-related matters, so a return to the days of front office factions could have undesirable consequences. I am sure more on that topic will be written in the coming days, but usually when there’s an early leak, there’s also an unhappy general manager.

Putting aside the intrigue behind the Yankees’ change in course, let’s now return to an examination of the player and the contract (for a concise rundown of how the Yankees blogosphere has reacted to the deal, check out Bronx Banter). The biggest criticism of the deal has dealt with the fact that Soriano does not address the team’s greatest weakness, which, of course, is the starting rotation. But, should that really make a difference? The Yankees did not get Cliff Lee, nor were they able to trade for Zack Greinke or Matt Garza. Nothing can change that reality, and there are no apparent acquisition targets capable of filling the resulting void.

Instead of focusing on a cadre of has-beens, also-rans, and could-bes, the Yankees instead decided to bolster the backend of the bullpen with a bonafide quality reliever. Granted, the contract, which at $11.7 million per year makes Soriano the third highest paid reliever in the game, seems exorbitant, but should that matter to anyone but the Yankees’ accountants? After all, just because he will be paid closer money doesn’t mean he won’t be very valuable pitching in the eighth inning. When you are a billion dollar franchise in an offseason when no one else will take your money, you can afford that kind of luxury.

Another knock on the contract stems from the fact that Soriano has had Tommy John surgery, but since undergoing the procedure in 2004, he bounced back with healthy seasons in four of the last five. In 2008, however, Soriano missed most of the season and eventually required another elbow surgery, so the risk is definitely real. But, again, that’s really a financial concern.

Statistically speaking, it’s nearly impossible to justify the monetary terms of the contract, so once you get past that hang-up, the bottom line becomes that the Yankees are a better team with Soriano than without. Even if one wanted to boil down the addition in terms of value added, it could be argued that if he pitches as he did in 2010, Soriano would come close to approximating the contribution that would be lost if Andy Pettitte does in fact retire. Also, in addition to giving the Yankees one of the major’s best bullpens, it also provides the team more flexibility, both in terms of whom they can move into the rotation and how much rest they can afford Rivera. There is a domino effect at play, and although the benefits don’t trickle down enough to match a $12 million outlay, the addition of Soriano does strengthen the team.

Perhaps the most legitimate criticism of the deal centers around losing the 31st pick in the 2011 Rule IV draft. It should be noted, however, that the Yankees still have a supplemental round pick thanks to the departure of Javier Vazquez. So, if the draft really is as deep as many experts have suggested, the Yankees should still have enough quality selections to replenish their farm system.

Finally, much has been made of Soriano’s opt out clauses, which allow him to terminate the deal after the first two seasons AND be paid a $1.5 million buyout for his troubles. Although this may seem to be a very one-sided perk, it actually gives the Yankees an out in the event that Soriano has a terrific 2011 season. Because the contract is end-loaded, it isn’t likely that Soriano’s future performance would ever surpass his salary, so if the right hander were to allow his ego to send him back into the free agent market, the Yankees would be freed of the risk associated with the length of the deal. In other words, the Yankees would wind up with one great year from Soriano and Type-A free agent compensation, which means they’d swap one draft pick for two. Should that happen, the Yankees’ end of the bargain would look much better, which is exactly why the opt outs are probably more in their best interest than Soriano’s (i.e., it provides him with a temptation that isn’t likely to work toward his benefit).

The Yankees’ signing of Rafael Soriano has met with some criticism, and rightfully so. The size of the deal and loss of a draft pick seem to outweigh his value as a set-up man, and his injury history adds a large dollop of risk to the equation. However, I have seen some doubts as to his possible performance, and I think they are being overstated. I feel fairly confident that if Soriano is healthy, he will perform on a high level. Let’s address some of the concerns.

1) He is a flyball pitcher moving to Yankee Stadium: This is undeniably true, as he has a career .62 GB/FB rate, with a 49.9% flyball rate. However, the impact of this fact is being vastly overstated. Soriano has a high FB rate, but much of that is attributable to an unusually high rate of infield flies. His career IFFB rate is 14%, a number that was beaten by just 4 qualified pitchers in 2010. This has lead to a low HR/9 (.89) for a flyball pitcher, and it is relevant to note that his ability to prevent the home run has improved over the last 3 seasons. Additionally, the Yankees are very strong defensively in the outfield, so that although Soriano does not fit the ballpark perfectly, his defense should serve him well. He is a flyball guy who is not giving up a lot of long flyballs, such that I do not see him being at risk for a huge blow-up in Yankee Stadium.

2) He got lucky last season: He had a .212 BABIP last season, which some have suggested means that he is due for a major regression in 2011. The problem with this is that it ignores that he has a low BABIP for his career, at .256, and that he has had an obscenely low one in 3 of the last 4 seasons. His BABIP has tracked well to his line drive rate, which tells me that this is likely not a fluke. When he is not getting hit for a lot of line drives, he will provide very low BABIP’s. He is not getting lucky, he is just a good pitcher.

3) He struggles against lefties: He is definitely worse against lefties than righties, but real concern over this issue requires a slavish devotion to FIP/xFIP despite the fact that there are doubts as to whether it is a great metric to use regarding relievers and that Soriano may be a good candidate to outperform his FIP/xFIP (due to his ability to induce weak contact, as evidenced by his low BABIP). Looking at the raw numbers, Rafael has a perfectly acceptable platoon split. Lefties hit .229/.296/.392 against him for his career, with the lone issue being the power that lefties show against him. If there is one valid concern in all of this, it is that his HR rate against lefties is a bit high. That said, for the weaker half of his platoon split, his numbers against LHB are just fine.

These are the issues that I have heard raised most often, and none of them strike me as being incredibly significant. If Soriano remains healthy, he will pitch well in 2011. That does not mean that the Yankees made the right move, but the problems with this deal have little to do with expected performance.

Jan 142011

So I’ve said over and over again that there’s really no way A.J. Burnett’s 2011 can be worse than his 2011. Do I have any proof for this? Frankly, I’m not really sure. There’s nothing we can predict about A.J. He’s got the classic “results don’t match the stuff” tag and that’s definitely hard to shake. Let’s look at 2010 and see if we can find ANYTHING that can help us predict a better 2011 for Mr. Burnett.

The first thing that’s at least a little positive is that Burnett did drop his BB/9 below 4.0. He was at 3.76 BB/9, which is right below his career mark of 3.78 BB/9. The bad thing is that his K/9, 6.99, fell to a nine year low. That’s something that needs to improve for Burnett to be successful (yes, you can give this the Capt. Obvious tag).

Burnett’s HR/9 in 2010 was the second highest of his career at 1.21 (highest 1.25 in ’07 for the Jays). His BABIP, .319, was also the second highest of his career (.328 in ’08). So, there’s a small chance that both of those numbers could come back down to A.J.’s career numbers (0.87 HR/9; .297 BABIP).

The high BABIP, as well as a low strand rate of 68.8%, helped contribute to Burnett’s ugly and a half 5.26 ERA. However, his FIP, 4.83 and xFIP, 4.66, were nothing to write home about either.

I’m really stretching here. There’s not much in Burnett’s 2010 that suggests he’ll have a significant improvement for next year. The FIP and xFIP numbers tell me that there’s a chance he could be A BIT better, but not much. Then again, we never know what the hell’s gonna happen when this guy uncorks one from his right arm.

Have a good weekend, TYU readers. I’ll be taking my You-Get-to-Be-a-Teacher exams on Saturday morning, so send me good vibes. Go Jets and Packers this weekend!

Jan 142011

On the heels of last night’s signing signing of Rafael Soriano, much of the Yankee blogosphere and fan base was opposed to the move for two reasons. The amount of money being paid for what is going to essentially be a middle reliever for the next year or two, and the draft pick compensation involved. In signing Rafael Soriano, the Yanks will lose their 1st round pick for this years coming draft which is #31 overall.

As far as the money goes, with the signing the Yanks are still a shade below 200 mil and well below last years payroll of 206.3 mil (BR) so they could certainly afford it. I’ll admit giving up the draft pick bothers me as well, especially for a reliever who only figures to contribute around 2 WAR if all goes well, and relievers are so volatile that it all too often doesn’t. Maybe this move allows the Yanks to move Joba Chamberlain back to the starting rotation, in which case it would have the triple effect of building a solid bridge to Mo this year, fill a much needed rotation slot for 2011, and have a replacement in house for Mo if he begins to show his age and/or retires in 2 years.

One thing is for sure, we can throw out everything Brian Cashman has publicly said about the Yankee 2011 plans up to this point. He said he wasn’t going to give up a 1st round draft pick for a reliever, and that Joba will not be shifted back to the rotation. This is the first time I can remember Brian Cashman so clearly and obviously saying one thing and doing another. I thought he was unfairly attacked for his “Bubba Crosby is our starting CF” comment, which was a simple statement of fact based on the Yankee roster construction at that time. I also gave him a pass for the “fantasy land” comment leading up to the Mark Teixeira signing, where it was later revealed there was a late breaking development of Tex heading to Boston, where Brian had to go to ownership and ask Hal to expand payroll for a unique and pivotal circumstance. But this one appears to either be a flat out, bold faced lie or a complete turnabout in his position, neither of which makes Brian look good. If this move is a reaction to Andy Pettitte not signing a contract, or some info related to his retirement, then don’t make the initial comment about the draft picks. It’s not as if the fallout from Andy not signing was something that Brian couldn’t see coming.

Moving back to the fan complaints about this move, I recently did a piece where I posted the Baseball America Top 10 Yankee prospects from 2004-the present. With all the reaction to the Yanks losing their 1st rounder, I thought it would be timely to go back through those Top 10 prospect lists to see how many of them were 1st rounders, and where in the draft the annual Top 10 were acquired by the team. Going back to 2004, here’s how all of those top 10 prospects were acquired:

1st round-Bronson Sardinha, Jeff Marquez, CJ Henry, Eric Duncan, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Andrew Brackman, Slade Heathcott
Supplemental-Joba Chamberlain
2nd Round-JB Cox, Austin Romine, JR Murphy, Estee Harris
3rd Round-Zachary McAllister, Brett Gardner, Christian Garcia
4th Round-Brad Suttle, Ross Ohlendorf
8th round-Dellin Betances, Austin Jackson
9th Round-Mark Melancon, Tyler Clippard
11th Round-Alan Horne
26th Round-Phil Coke
27th Round-Brandon Laird

International Free Agents-Dionar Navarro, Robinson Cano, Jose Tabata, Rudy Guillen, Joakin Arias, Eduardo Nunez, Marcos Vechionacci, Alfredo Aceves, Jesus Montero, Gary Sanchez, Arodys Vizcaino, Hector Noesi, Manny Banuelos.

I have a few takeaways. First, its pretty obvious that how most of the best Yankee prospects of the recent past were acquired via the International draft or as IFAs. Next, the Yankee 1st round results have been very, very mixed. While many of the 1st rounders have showed up on BA Top 10 lists, few have made it to the show. Only Hughes and IPK have any MLB experience to speak of, and even if we eliminate Brackman and Heathcott as incomplete (as we should) you still have only 2 of the 6 first rounders making it to the major leagues. Take Hughes (6.4) and IPKs (2.8) career WAR , divide it by the 5 years of drafts it took to obtain them and you get…less than 2 WAR. Which is what Soriano will give you next year, and hopefully for each of the next 3 years. One could argue you’re paying twice, with both money and talent. But as we discussed earlier the Yanks can easily afford it with their current payroll, so the money won’t impact how the Yanks operate. From an organizational standpoint it’s not a bad move, especially if it allows them to move Joba back to the rotation to fill a much needed rotation slot.

Next, it’s interesting to see how the MLB amateur draft isn’t as linear as one would think. Brett Gardner was a 3rd rounder, current major leaguer Austin Jackson was drafted in the 8th round, as was top pitching prospect Dellin Betances. Phil Coke was all the way down in Round 26. We can even go back to the Core 4 for more evidence along these lines. We all know Derek Jeter was a high 1st round pick, but the other three were not. Andy Pettitte was drafted in the 22nd round of the 1990 draft. Jorge Posada was drafted in the 24th round of that same draft.  Mariano Rivera was an IFA. So you have two sure HOF players, and two borderline HOF players, but only one picked in the 1st round. Baseball’s not like Football or Basketball, it’s a very difficult sport to draft.

There’s no doubt that many of the annual MLB All Stars were selected high in the first round of the MLB draft, but that’s a position we all hope the Yanks will never draft at. Given where they draft on an annual basis and the rate of success they’ve had with 1st rounders, losing a 1st round pick to fill a clear need on the MLB club is not as big a cost as many fans think it is.

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