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Jan 112011

Jerry Crasnick is reporting that the Yankees have stepped up their support of former A’s pitcher Justin Duchscherer. The Yankees were interested in Duchscherer back at the 2009 trade deadline, but could not work out a deal with the A’s at the time. I advocated the potential move at the time, and I would endorse bringing him on board now.

It is hard to question Justin’s ability as a pitcher. Here is a brief scouting report on Duke from 2009, written by Joe Pawlikowski of RAB:

Duchscherer is a cut fastball (high 80s, low 90s), overhand curve, slider type pitcher. He strikes out a decent number of guys, around 8 per nine as a reliever and was at 6 per nine as a starter in 2008. He also doesn’t walk many people, 1.5 per nine as a reliever in 2006 and 2.2 per nine as a starter in 08. Even better, he keeps the ball in the park, allowing less than a homer per nine over most of his career. This profiles him as a solid option at both starter and reliever.

The problem with Duke is a variety of health issues that make it difficult to project his performance going forward. He missed time in 2007 due to a hip issue, had some nagging injuries hamper him in 2008, lost the entire 2009 due to an elbow problem, and missed a large chunk of 2010 due to a problem with his other hip. Additionally, he has struggled with depression issues, and he has Irritable Bowel Syndrome, which he feels is exacerbated by the uneven schedule that comes with being in the bullpen. Taken together, the case for Duchscherer reads much like the case for many of the low risk, high reward guys available at this time of the year. When he has pitched, he has been quite successful, but he has had trouble staying on the field.

I prefer Duchscherer over many of the other injury cases on the market, simply because he has produced better results than most of them while pitching in the American League. The criteria for adding a pitcher at this point is that he needs to have a legitimate chance to be better than what the Yankees currently have on staff. If Duchscherer is healthy, he has the best chance of anyone currently on the market of meeting that standard. I would rather the Yankees go with a higher upside, lower probability move over picking someone who may be likely to give you innings but who is fairly likely to perform terribly (see Freddy Garcia). For a contract between 1 and 2 million, I would take a chance on him.

We all know by now that Jeff Bagwell was snubbed on his first hall of fame ballot by the BBWAA. The collective excuse seems to have been that he was just too fit, too shaped, too good to not be taking steroids. At no point has Bagwell’s name ever been connected with steroids in any way, shape or form, but he was a big, strong hitter in the 1990s, so he is guilty until proven innocent.

Jeff Bagwell will not be the last victim of this newfound righteous indignation, and at some point he will probably be inducted into the Hall of Fame, but hopefully the ridiculousness of his case calls attention to the stupidity of the BBWAA’s voters and voting process. Jeff Bagwell’s only sin was that he played during the 1990s, a time when offense soared in the majors in part because of steroid use.

Here is the argument I would like to make: No player should be denied entry to the Hall of Fame because of steroid use – suspected, confirmed, whatever. For most of league history, a wide variety of performance enhancing drugs, including McGwire’s alleged drug of choice Androstenedione, were completely legal both in baseball and wider society. It is absolutely ridiculously that Mark McGwire – one of the best sluggers ever – is being kept out of the Hall of Fame because he benefited from the use of performance enhancers that were both ubiquitous and legal.

Furthermore, even if performance enhancing drugs are considered cheating, there is no precedent to use cheating (except in the case of gambling) to deny a player entrance to the Hall of Fame. Players like John McGraw, Ty Cobb, Joe Niekro, and Whitey Ford were notorious cheaters and dirty players, but were inducted without controversy. The biggest complaint against Gaylord Perry was not that he openly admitted to doctoring balls (and would literally taunt players on the mound by pretending to do so), but that his W-L record had too many losses. And let’s not even get into corked bats.

And let’s not pretend that steroids were some new, particularly powerful form of (completely legal and accepted) cheating that happened to emerge in the 1990s. Jose Canseco in his book claimed that he used steroids in the 1980s to get from the minors to the major leagues. Mike Schmidt admitted in his book that performance enhancing drugs were freely given out in his major league clubhouses in the 1970s.

The 1990s saw a huge surge of home runs for a number of reasons. One was probably that medical science increased the potency of the performance enhancing drugs that were already in use. But that was only one reason – ballparks were smaller, pitchers weren’t allowed to push batters off the plate, managers got stupid using relief pitchers, college players grew up using aluminum bats instead of wooden ones – among many.

This wouldn’t break a rational Hall of Fame voting process, but it does mess with the assumptions made by scores of retired BBWAA writers who are either too dumb or too disconnected to compare hitters against their peers and vote for the Hall of Fame accordingly. The home run surge of the 1990s probably messes with the “500 home run club = Hall of Fame” rule that the writers had leaned on so heavily for so long. If we let a worthy group of people pick who does and does not enter the Hall of Fame, this would not be a problem. If performance enhancing drugs – or corked bats, or doctored balls, or McGraw/Cobb dirty tricks – were generally accepted as a means of playing better, then we should have no problem judging an environment where many or most players benefited from their use.

The counterfactuals bear this out. If Mark McGwire hadn’t used andro (and no one else did too), do you really think he wouldn’t have been a top-10 hitter of his generation? Of course he would be – McGwire hit 49 home runs his rookie year, and set records in high school. If Barry Bonds hadn’t taken whatever he took, would he not still go down as the greatest hitter of the 1990s? Of course he would have. Had Roger Clemens not taken steroids, wouldn’t he still have been one of the best pitchers of all time?

I find it difficult in any way to defend steroids as some kind of moral affront without completely divorcing yourself from baseball history.

Jan 112011

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees’ interest in Andruw Jones has grown and is now classified as “strong.” Steve S. delved into Jones earlier, so consider this an extension of the case for and/or against Jones.

The MLBTR post mentions that the Yankees want a right handed hitter who can handle left and center field. Can Jones still do that? More or less, yeah.

In 2009, Jones was even against righties (.337 wOBA) and lefties (.336 wOBA). In 2010, there was a more pronounced split, but both numbers were good: .342 vs. RHP and .402 vs. LHP. 2009 is a closer representation of Jones’ platoon numbers, though. His career numbers are .355 vs. LHP and .352 vs. RHP. Andruw’s fielding numbers have been solid, too. So, should the Yankees keep going with this? Should their interest be strong? Yes, it should.

Jones is exactly the type of bench outfielder that the Yankees need. As I noted in the comments section of Steve’s piece, the Yankees have cheap options like Greg Golson and Brandon Laird, but both of those represent extreme unknowns at this point. Golson hasn’t proven that he can hit yet–though to be fair, he hasn’t had much playing time. Laird is essentially an experiment in the outfield, though his bat is a little more advanced. As of right now, I’d pencil in Laird as a starter in Scranton to start the year and Golson to be the fifth outfielder.

It might be money saving to use Golson as the fourth outfielder and it would stick to the omnipresent desire to get “younger and more athletic” but I wouldn’t be comfortable with Golson being the first man off of the bench in the outfield. Jones fits the bill to a “t”. And while I’ve advocated for Scott Hairston in the past, I wouldn’t mind Jones one bit. If this interest is real, the only thing left to do is hammer out the contract details.

Per Baseball-Reference, the White Sox paid Jones $500K in 2010 (with the Dodgers giving Jones $3.2M). Jones did have a strong year–.364 wOBA, 126 wRC+, 1.8 WAR in 328 PA–so a raise would likely be in order. The Yankees signed Randy Winn for $1.1MM to be a bench outfielder and I think a similar deal would be perfect for Jones and the Yankees. It gives Jones a substantial raise, is about market value for bench outfielder, and it would also be cheap enough for the Yankees to eat the contract if Jones absolutely bombs like Winn did. Of course, Scott Boras is Andruw’s agent, so negotiations will likely not be easy, as Boras will be looking to capitalize on Jones’ solid 2010. But with the silence on the market for Jones, I don’t think his camp will have much leverage. This seems like a near perfect scenario.

Some will say that the Yankees need to focus on pitching right now and the Yankees shouldn’t be focusing on bench outfielders right now. Ironically, I’m sure many of these people are the same ones who said Brian Cashman couldn’t “multitask” when trying to sign Cliff Lee. Either way, this is what the Yankees should be doing: plugging small holes for now while waiting for a better scenario to acquire a pitcher. There are no starters worth signing. The Yankees don’t seem interested in signing another reliever (regardless of what Heyman says about them in re: Soriano). There is, however, a perfectly suitable fourth OF option out there in Andruw Jones.

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