IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog.)

During the entire off season, the Yankees have been stymied in their attempt to add a starting pitcher. First, Cliff Lee eschewed their hefty contract offer because of the apparent belief that it’s always sunny in Philadelphia, and then Zack Greinke and Matt Garza were both traded to the friendly confines of the NL Central. Making matters worse, Andy Pettitte has spent most of the winter on a beach in Hawaii instead of his gym back in Texas, leaving Brian Cashman with little alternative than to patiently bide his time. Well, it’s time for him to make a master stroke.

Aside from hoping that Pettitte has a change of heart, the Yankees seem destined to enter the season with a compromised rotation. Without any viable starting pitchers to pursue at this point, the idea of locking down the late innings by adding Rafael Soriano to the backend of the bullpen has surfaced. The only problem with that option, however, is Soriano’s status as a Type-A free agent. So, if the Yankees decided to sign the former Rays’ closer to pitch in middle relief, it would not only cost a pretty penny, but also a first round draft selection (which, to make matters worse, would be forfeited to a division rival).

Despite all the rumors of the Yankees’ interest in Soriano, Cashman has been emphatic to the contrary. In fact, he couldn’t have been more explicit on the topic. “I will not lose our number one draft pick,” Cashman was quoted as saying by the LoHud Yankees Blog. “I would have for Cliff Lee. I won’t lose our number one draft pick for anyone else.”

But, what if the Yankees didn’t have to give up their first round pick to get Soriano? The reporters at LoHud asked Cashman about the possibility of such a “sign and trade”, but he seemed to dismiss it as a “legal maneuver” that was both difficult and rare. Desperate times call for desperate measures, however, so if such an arrangement is possible, the Yankees should keep exploring every option.

For those unfamiliar with baseball’s free agency compensation rules, here’s how it basically works (for a more detailed explanation, click here). At the end of the season, prospective free agents are rated and classified as either Type-A or Type-B. Soriano was labeled a Type-A free agent, so a team that signs him would have to give the Rays their first round pick. However, if that team finished in the bottom half of the standings (ranked 16-30), their first round pick would be protected, meaning they would only have to yield a second round selection (or a third rounder if that same team already signed a higher rated free agent).

As this MLB.com report confirms, sign-and-trade deals are permissible, but only with the prior written consent of the free agent involved. Normally, a recently signed free agent can not be traded until June 15, but a player can waive that requirement of the Basic Agreement. As a result, if the Yankees were to be involved in such a deal, they would not only have to negotiate with another team, but Soriano as well.

In order for the hypothetical sign-and-trade to work, the Yankees would first have to agree to terms with Soriano and then convince another team to sign him on their behalf. Then, they would also have to compensate that team for both facilitating the signing and surrendering their draft selection in the process. Theoretically, any club could serve as the surrogate, but the cost of compensating a team that has to give up its first round pick could itself be prohibitive. Instead, the most likely scenario would involve a team that either has a protected first round pick or already surrendered it because of a prior free agent signing. Of course, the optimal candidate would be a team that qualifies on both accounts, and this year, the Washington Nationals just so happen to fit the bill.

Because of their poor placement in the standings, the Nationals hold the number six pick overall, which, as previously mentioned, is protected. For that reason, when the team signed Jayson Werth, it only had to yield a second round selection to the Phillies. Therefore, if the Yankees came to an agreement with the Nationals, the latter would only have to send a third round pick to the Rays as compensation for signing Soriano (Werth’s Elias rating of 91.807 is just a shade ahead of Soriano’s 91.799).

As things currently stand, the Nationals’ third round selection is 92nd overall (before the first and second rounds is a supplemental round that includes other free agent compensation picks). Although one can never assume the level of compensation that the Nationals would expect for surrendering this slot in the draft, the value would undoubtedly be significantly less than what the Yankees would otherwise have to give up in a straight free agent signing. Also worth keeping in mind is that the Nationals received another first pick as well as a supplemental pick (34th overall) because of Adam Dunn’s departure to the White Sox. Both of those selections are also protected, so Washington essentially has three first round picks. Considering the amount of money it will cost to sign all three of the selected players, the Nationals may actually be eager to give up their third rounder (and the signing bonus that comes with it) in exchange for a cost-controlled minor leaguer.

One other advantage to this sign-and-trade arrangement would be the Rays would not get a first round pick for Soriano. In fact, they wouldn’t even get a second rounder. Forcing a chief rival to pick as many as 70 slots lower in the draft is not an insignificant consideration. Along those lines, the Yankees could also turn to the Rangers or Tigers if the Nationals prove too unreasonable. Although both of those team still have their second rounders, each has already surrendered its first pick to the Red Sox because of the Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez signings. Because Soriano rates higher than Beltre and Martinez, the Red Sox would have to settle for a second rounder if either the Tigers or Rangers signed the reliever on behalf of the Yankees. Undoubtedly, such an arrangement would cost the Yankees much more than a deal with the Nationals, but it would have the added benefit of lowering the value of the Red Sox’ draft pick.

Most of the time, Brian Cashman has had the luxury of being the bully on the block. This offseason, however, he has been forced to be more of a chess master. To date, the events of the winter have kept the Yankees’ plans in check, so perhaps the time has come for a more creative endgame strategy? It’s Cashman move, but can he find someone else to play along?

Jobs

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Jan 102011

There are a few conversations I’ve been privy to over last weekend that got me thinking about jobs that each player has when he took the field. One conversation was a Twitter conversation between Moshe and friend of the blog @TomZig. The other was a conversation I heard on Saturday morning on MLB Network between Greg Amsinger, Mitch Williams, and recently HOF member elect Bert Blyleven.

Amsinger asked if we were getting away from wins and losses being the most important of the pitcher stats. Blyleven more or less side-stepped the question, but said instead that consistency was the best thing a pitcher could have. I’d venture that he meant consistency in terms of going out and pitching a lot of innings, putting the team in a position to win.

The conversation between Moshe and Tom was, of course, about when to assign blame and credit for wins and losses in football. Quarterbacks, like pitchers, are credited–or docked–because of something the team does: Win and lose.

Many in the mainstream will say that the pitcher’s job is to win the game, since we assign wins and losses to pitchers only. As I’ve made it quite obvious in my time here, I despise the practice of judging a pitcher by his wins and losses. My theory can be summed up as such: pitchers aren’t good because they win a lot of games; pitchers win a lot of games because they are good (most of the time at least).

The pitcher’s job is not to win the game. That is the team’s job. The team wins and the team loses. The pitcher’s job, quite simply, is to prevent runs from scoring. He cannot help it if his team scores runs. All he needs to be concerned with stopping the guys in the other shirts from crossing home plate. Likewise, the hitter’s job isn’t just to get a hit. The hitter’s job is to avoid making outs. Like we’ve all come to realize, a hitter does not fail because he does not get a hit. As for the fielders, they’re there to assist the pitcher in preventing runs by attempting to turn batted balls into outs.

We always hear that if all the players on a team “do their Jobs,” then the team will succeed. It’s obvious analysis at best, but sometimes the obvious things are the ones that ring most true.

Bill Madden, of whom I’m no great fan (so let that be a disclaimer) wrote a piece recently about the Yankees and their apparent need to trade for Joakim Soria. On the surface level, I don’t entirely disagree with the idea. Adding Soria would make sense since he’s one of the top relief arms in all of baseball and because he’s relatively cheap. I disagree with what Madden thinks the Yankees should give up and why they should do it.

I’m not going to go paragraph by paragraph and do a full FJM on this bad boy because it doesn’t deserve that, and that tune’s more than a little bit played out. I may cut and paste certain quotes to highlight, but mostly I’ll be commenting on the tone of the piece and Madden’s justifications.

Starting with the tone, it doesn’t come off as all that desperate, but the title of the piece does. While the Yankees’ offseason has certainly not gone entirely as planned, that’s mostly due to losing out on Cliff Lee. Granted, that’s a very big thing on which to miss out, but they’ve still re-signed Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera while bringing in a lefty reliever–a stated goal–and adding some depth by signing Russell Martin. If Andy Pettitte retires, things may look a little more grim, but that hasn’t happened yet so I’m not going to freak out. The team as of right now has some flaws but it still a generally well constructed team with a top-flight lineup and a solid bullpen.

A lot of people in the media and the various comments sections across the Yankee blogosphere keep saying that the Yankees are desperate because they keep missing out on big pieces, like signing Lee or trading for Zack Greinke. The patience the Yankees have shown in this offseason, not jumping on a player simply for the sake of jumping on a player demonstrates a dearth of desperation. What the Yankees are doing now is exactly what they should be doing: Waiting for the right move to come along. Making a trade or making a signing simply for the sake of doing so is a way to waste money in the present and in the future.

Getting back to the Soria-non-trade and Madden’s actual words:

His first paragraph ends with a statement we’ve heard all winter: Kerry Wood saved the Yankees’ season. Kerry Wood threw 26 innings with the New York Yankees. They were a solid 26 innings, but they represented 1.8% of the total innings thrown by Yankee pitchers in 2010. When you pitch just 1.8% of a team’s total innings, you are not a savior. If you want a season savior, go look at CC Sabathia with the Brewers in 2008. Never have 20something innings been made such a big deal by the New York media or the fans (well, except one 20something inning stretch that I’d rather not discuss anymore).

The next bothersome statement is that Madden calls Kansas City GM Dayton Moore’s refusal to trade Soria “shortsighted.” I’ll agree with that–it’s silly for the Royals, a team that is unlikely to contend this year, to tie up resources in a great closer. He’ll have a minimal effect on such a bad team. However, when Madden suggests that the Yankees should trade Jesus Montero for Joakim Soria, that’s even more shortsighted. Madden displays a complete lack of awake of awareness here. Even though Soria has options through 2014, trading a hitter like Jesus Montero is a complete waste. Madden mentions that the Yankees offered Montero for Soria earlier in the season, but we never got official confirmation of that and the rumor was that they “dangled” Montero; that doesn’t mean they offered him.

From the article: “Holding on to [Soria] would seem like a waste, especially since his value couldn’t be higher and the Royals won’t likely be contending for another couple of years. Said one AL exec: ‘It’s a lot easier finding closers than it is power-hitting catchers. Dayton’s got a chance here to fill two huge needs – catcher and shortstop – to complement that bumper crop of talent he’s got coming. Why wouldn’t you do that?’” Well, A.L. scout, you wouldn’t do that because it probably wasn’t offered. If the Yankees did offer Montero for Soria and a deal didn’t go down, both GMs made a mistake: Cashman for offering it in the first place and Moore for not accepting it as soon as the offer was made. (Note: the shortstop discussed is Eduardo Nunez, who is probably unappealing to the Royals for a few reasons: 1) He’s Eduardo Nunez and 2) They just traded for Alcides Escobar; Nunez isn’t a need for the Royals and shouldn’t be a want.)

The assertion that Austin Romine is as close to ML ready as Jesus Montero is at the moment is also off base. In terms of raw OPS, his numbers have dropped steadily each year (.781-.763-.726), though that’s admittedly rather simplistic analysis. However, it’s something of which to take note. We also saw a big second half drop off from Romine in 2010 and his defensive reputation took a bit of a hit as well. Romine also doesn’t have near the offensive potential that Montero does, which gives the latter some more flexibility. Montero may not be able to stick behind the plate in the majors, but his bat will likely allow him to play anywhere, including first base and DH (Jesus Montero will be just 27 when Mark Teixeira’s contract is up). That second half swoon from Romine suggests that the Yankees will likely start Romine at AA Trenton agains this year, especially if Montero is going to start the year with the AAA team in Scranton-Wilkes Barre. And, even if the Yankees did sign Russell Martin, that doesn’t mean they’ve given up on Jesus Montero, especially when Martin’s primary back up going into the season will be Francisco Cervelli. It should signal that they’re willing to be patient with Montero and let him get some development time in Scranton–as well as see what they have in Martin–before bringing him up to the big leagues.

Madden closes the bulk of his article by talking about signing Rafael Soriano for “the sake of the staff” which is a misguided notion I’ve covered before, so I’ll sum up my thoughts in one sentence: A good bullpen does not make up for a lacking starting rotation and the Yankees shouldn’t be interested in giving up a draft pick for a relief pitcher and multi-year deals for relief pitchers are a bad idea and Madden even takes note of the Yankees’ spotty history with multi-year-deal relievers. Okay, that was a run on sentence, but I’m okay with it. Madden also says that the Royals need to “come to their senses” and build for the future and unload Soria. Yeah, sure, I’ll agree. But first, Madden needs to come to his senses and realize that trading one of the best prospects in the minor leagues for a relief pitcher is a near-senseless idea.

Baseball Prospectus has a really nice piece up where Billy Martin Jr discusses his father’s life and times, and makes a Cooperstown case for the Veteran’s Committee to consider. It’s subs req’d, but content like this really makes the annual fee worthwhile, and I highly recommend it if you don’t already subscribe. Here’s some highlights from the interview:

On his childhood:

He came from a very humble upbringing. He was very poor. I know that this sounds like one of those “I walked seven miles in the snow” stories, but he used to take mustard sandwiches to school. He’d pull sacks out of the trashcan at school so he’d have a clean-looking lunch sack—one that didn’t have somebody’s name on it—and he’d make two mustard sandwiches. Then he’d grab fruit from one of his neighbor’s fruit trees on his way to school, so that his lunch sack would look more full and so that he had enough to eat.

On George:

He had a secretary who George had told, “Do not let them put mayonnaise on my sandwich.” Sure enough, after the second sandwich arrived with mayonnaise on it, George fired the girl. Afterward, one of the other girls in the office got the courage to walk into his office and say, “Mr. Steinbrenner, you do know that the only reason she was working here was to put her kid through college?”

(snip)

Going back to the story, he fired that girl and someone told him she worked there because she was trying to put her son through college. George being George, he thought about it and then took the son out to lunch. He told him, “Here’s the deal. If you maintain this grade point average, and keep your nose clean, I’ll continue to pay for your college.” He didn’t hire the mother back. There was no way he was going to do that, because he was very demanding.

On Reggie:

I’m sure that you saw when he pulled Reggie [Jackson] off the field? Reggie bashes him, still. Well, Reggie, my dad got the best out of you.

He did what he had to do to hold that team together, because all that Reggie said when he first got there divided that team. I think that if dad hadn’t gone out of his way to continue to keep Reggie down, he would have lost that whole team. The inmates can’t run the asylum. He was doing that to mess with Reggie, and he was doing it publicly so the team could see, “Hey, we’re not going to let somebody come in here and say that they’re better than the rest of the team.”

His case for Cooperstown:

He took every team he ever managed to the postseason, except the Texas Rangers. I think that only two managers have taken three teams to the postseason, Dad and La Russa, and Dad is the only one to take four teams. He also did it before they expanded the playoffs. And Texas came very close, in 1974, which was his only full season managing them. They fired Whitey Herzog and hired my father, and he took the same team and almost went to the postseason with it. This was a team that had lost over 100 games the year before.

On the Yankees: (Last week in Oakland as manager)

There were only a few weeks left in the season, and all of the reporters left, except for a guy named Randy Galloway. Dad trusted Randy, because he could tell him things without getting burned, and he told Randy, “I’ve got a little something for you, and in about three weeks you can let this out, but you didn’t hear it from me. You can say that I’m going to be the Yankees’ manager next year.” In unison, Randy and I both asked, “Why?!”

He looked at me like he wanted to kill me, because I asked him why he wanted to put up with the press there, and the owner, and everything. In Oakland he was The Show. It was Billyball. He was the Pope of that town. It was awesome, but he looked at me, so mad. He said, “Because I’m a Yankee, pard. I‘m not happy anywhere else.”


© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha