He's wearing a Yankee cap, trust me
New Year’s Day is the time of year where many take stock in what we’re doing and see if we can do better in the coming year. Many resolve to exercise more, eat less, make more money, have more fun, be nicer to people they don’t like, etc, etc. Most of these resolutions are soon forgotten, but I think Yankee fans will be constantly reminded they need to take a different approach this year or they will be setting themselves up for disappointment. The #1 resolution I think Yankee fans will need to subscribe to this coming year is what Brian Cashman has been preaching this off season. Something fans of all sports are not often known for, especially not Yankee fans with the sky-high annual expectations they generally have. The word for the 2011 Yankees is “Patience” and I see it manifesting itself in 3 ways:
Patience with the kids. In all likelihood, we will be watching some of the exciting young talent get incorporated and go through some inevitable growing pains. As Mo noted the other day, the Yanks have a top 6 farm system with some high-upside arms and bats close to the majors. Players like Montero, Betances, Banuelos and Brackman could easily find themselves on a big league roster sometime around mid-season, if not sooner. Others like Ivan Nova, Hector Noesi or David Phelps could find themselves breaking camp with the team, or filling in for a few starts in case of injury. It’s a sign of a strong, healthy organization to have so many quality options available in-house. I know Yankee fans are accustomed to buying top-shelf, ready made MLB players via free agency or the trade market, but that appears unlikely this year. In order to keep the Yankee payroll at a reasonable level, they need to incorporate young, cheap talent of their own. For those who pan out you get to have those prime production age 25-33 seasons recorded in house, as opposed to paying someone as a free agent for what he did elsewhere. The Yanks will be looking to build the next core of championship teams, as they did with a slew of young talent in the mid 90s.
Patience with the trade market. With a lack of attractive 2011 free agent pitchers and 3rd year arb eligibles, it’s unlikely the Yanks will find their #1 need for a high end starter via mid season trade this coming year. The teams that have even modestly attractive free agents like Mark Beuhrle or Chris Carpenter are perennial contenders, and therefore unlikely to hold a mid-season fire sale. That’s not to say there won’t be players available, just not high end talent. The finances of Baseball have changed in recent years. With revenue sharing and internet media funds being distributed equally from the MLB offices, teams like the Marlins, Rays and Twins have the funds to retain top players with big contract extensions, buying out a player’s arb years and a few years of free agency. That means top players hit the free agent market less and less, and those that do often hit the market later in their careers. Cliff Lee is a good example of that. Since he was the only top flight pitcher available, the demand for his services was extreme and the price tag was eye popping. Chances are that most 32 year old pitchers have seen their best days already, so developing your own players is more important than ever.
Patience with the division and league. We should concede that the Red Sox currently look better than the Yanks on paper. With that being said, I still don’t believe that major parts of the team will be able to stay healthy for an entire 162 game season, and they don’t have a ton of MLB ready talent at AAA to fill in when they go down. While some of Boston’s injuries last year were freakish and the overall number extreme, many others were all too predictable. Josh Beckett has only made 30 or more starts 3 times in his 9 year career. John Lackey’s last 2 seasons in Anaheim were marked with arm trouble, and his first season in Fenway wasn’t all that impressive. Dice-K hasn’t been healthy or effective for the past 2 seasons. JD Drew has been banged up his entire career. Dustin Pedroia’s small frame and violent swing are a recipe for the DL. Even newly acquired Adrian Gonzalez is coming off shoulder surgery. If the Sox enjoy good health this season, there’s no doubt they’re the team to beat. But there are many doubts about the ability to stay healthy for key elements of that team. As for the rest of the division, the Rays highly effective 2010 bullpen (#1 overall) has been decimated with the defections of Rafael Soriano, JP Howell and Randy Choate, with Grant Balfour unlikely to return as well. In the rest of the league, the Texas Rangers took a huge step back in losing Cliff Lee and few other contenders have done much to improve themselves this off season.
The 2011 Yanks return largely intact, and if Andy Pettitte returns the only notable loss from the 2010 roster that won 95 games will be Kerry Wood and Lance Berkman, both of whom were acquired at the trade deadline. Brian Cashman is exercising patience this year because frankly, he can afford to do so.
