IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

SG over at RLYW released his updated CAIRO projections last night, so I thought it would be interesting to look at the wOBA projections for the Yankees’ and Red Sox’ lineups, being that both teams are pretty much set from 1-9. For those who are unaware, wOBA is a catch-all measure of offense. It does not adjust for ballpark or position, and it is just trying to give a raw estimation of production.

Ellsbury .319
Crawford .347
Pedroia .355
Gonzalez .383
Youkilis .396
Ortiz .374
Drew .365
Saltalamacchia .319
Scutaro .333

Jeter .342
Swisher .357
Teixeira .384
Rodriguez .384
Cano .372
Posada .354
Granderson .346
Montero .337
Gardner .329

Here they are lined up without names:

NYY, BOS
.384, .396
.384, .383
.372, .374
.357, .365
.354, .355
.346, .347
.342, .333
.337, .319
.329, .319

It looks like the Red Sox might be a smidgen stronger in the middle, while the Yankees have the advantage at the bottom. If you unscientifically just tally up the wOBA’s on each team, you would get a gap of 14 points in favor of the Yankees, a minuscule difference across 9 spots. In all, these are two excellent lineups, with the Yankees possibly having the slight advantage of being a little deeper. Now it is up to Brian Cashman to build a pitching staff that can hang with Boston’s and contend for a division title.

16 Responses to “Comparing The Yanks and Sox, By wOBA”

  1. Moshe, I’d mention that since wOBA is not park-adjusted that will make Boston’s wOBAs seem better in comparison to the Yankees because Fenway boosts offense more.

    In a neutral park I’d have the Yankees’ starting nine hitting for a collective wOBA of .355 and the Red Sox hitting for a collective wOBA of .349 Over a full season that’s a difference of about 30 runs.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Moshe Mandel Reply:

    Thanks, SG. I actually thought for some reason that the park factor on the New Stadium is higher, or at least was this year. I’d guess it is somewhere between the below average number from last year and then astronomical one from this year, but we do not even have a 3 year factor to use at this point. Which factor are you referring to when you say Fenway boosts more?  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    SG Reply:

    I use four years for park factors, so for stadiums that don’t have four years of data I substitute league average, which regresses them until we have more evidence. Also, I don’t just use runs scored/allowed away and home, I use the linear weights batting runs of the events that happened as a way to smooth out any fluctuations due to variance. So even though more runs scored in Yankee road games than Yankee home games in 2009, the collective wOBA for the Yankees and their opponents was higher at Yankee Stadium. AFAIC, that’s more predictive of how we’d expect it to play going forward, as we saw in 2010.

    Fenway has boosted offfense by about 9% over the last four seasons (weighted average). It actually reduces HRs, but boosts doubles by a lot. It also boosts singles and BBs by a bit.

    New Yankee Stadium has boosted overall offense by about 7%, but that gets regressed to about 6%. It boosts homers, but is neutral in hits and has actually slightly suppressed 2B/3B so far. It has suppressed BBs by a bit.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Moshe Mandel Reply:

    Thanks for the explanation, that makes sense.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Moshe Mandel Reply:

    Oh, also, I noticed Jed Lowrie wasn’t on the spreadsheet, unless you have updated since you first posted it yesterday.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    SG Reply:

    Yeah, a few guys slipped through the cracks. He’s projected for .257/.335/.412, .328 wOBA and I’ll make sure he’s added.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

  2. wOBA is NOT an overall measure of offense. It is an overall measure of hitting.

    If you are trying to project runs scored, baserunning comes into play, and here the Sox have a significant advantage, now with two guys likely to finish #1 and #2 in the league in stolen bases.

    In addition, Gonzalez figures are based on his playing in Petco; most experts predict that playing half his games in Fenway will add 7-10 homers, a similar number of doubles and perhaps 15 to 20 points — or more — to his batting average.

    Also, not sure about the numbers themselves. James, for instance, has Ellsbury at .349, not .319. Big difference. In Ellsbury’s last full year (discounting 2010, where he was injured all except for a handful of games), his wOBA was .354. Pegging him at .319 makes no sense whatsoever.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Moshe Mandel Reply:

    James is usually very high, for everybody. He has almost all of these players higher.

    Additionally, I think but I am not sure that SG has already adjusted Gonzalez’ numbers for Fenway.

    As for baserunning, the Yankees have Gardner as well. So we are talking one superior baserunner, although I’d have to take a closer look at baserunning numbers for the other players. More importantly, I’m not sure about SG’s wOBA, but I know that Fangraphs includes stolen bases in wOBA. I’d guess that SG does as well, but I cannot be certain.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Moshe Mandel Reply:

    Oh, and as for the numbers, in the statistical community, CAIRO is generally considered one of the more accurate systems. Im pretty sure it has outperformed James’ rankings regularly.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    SG Reply:

    I can double-check Ellsbury, because that does seem low to me too, but as Moshe says, James is always way too high for everyone.

    If you take James’s pitching projections and hitting projections and line them up, they don’t make sense. There’s no way for the hitters to hit as well as he projects against pitchers who pitch as well as he projects.

    As far as wOBA, baserunning, etc., the impact of that isn’t really all that big. I think the biggest spread you’ll see is about 20 runs from the best team to the worst team, and it’s not like the Yankees don’t have Gardner, Granderson and to a lesser extent Jeter and Rodriguez as SB threats of their own.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    SG Reply:

    BTW looks like Gonzalez is still listed with San Diego. He should have a wOBA of .409 in Fenway.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Moshe Mandel Reply:

    Yeah, that makes more sense. When I posted the .383 to Twitter, I had Sky Kalkman and a few other doubt that number.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

  3. OK, I’ve uploaded a corrected version with Crawford (Bos wOBA = .361) and Gonzalez now listed correctly with Boston and with Jed Lowrie added.

    Also, I meant to answer this in an earlier comment but my wOBA does NOT include SB/CS.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

  4. These wOBA numbers are way too low. You use Fangraphs, right?

    Okay, just saw that you exclude SBs.

    I wonder how much that decreases Crawford, Ellsbury, and Gardner’s numbers.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    SG Reply:

    Looks like an impact of .015 – .020 points of wOBA depending on # of attempts and success rate for high SB guys like CC,JE and BG..

    So I guess that explains a big part of the difference between my Ellsbury projection and James’s. . .334-.339 compared to .349 doesn’t look quite as bad as .319 compared to 349.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

  5. .329 for Gardner? He had surgery on his bum wrist this winter and should be in top form next year. I hope Boston and other teams keep underestimating Brett, he should be somewhere around; avg.-.285 and OBP-.390 all+/- for 2011, maybe even higher for his OBP.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

Leave a Reply

(required)

(required)

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha