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Reach for Rauch

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 2 Responses »
Dec 202010

The market has been literally mute on right handed relief pitcher Jon Rauch. Bill Madden mused about it yesterday, but let’s explore it further.

Rauch has been around since 2002, playing with the White Sox, Expos/Nationals, the Diamondbacks, and the Twins. For his career, Rauch owns a 117 ERA+, a 3.89 FIP, a 1.240 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 2.62 K/BB. Basically, Rouch does everything you want a reliever to do: get some strikeouts and avoid the walk. His HR/9 is 1.0, which is a bit “meh” but we can live with it, as long as he keeps the walks and hits low (which he does).

One problem that presents itself is that Rauch, at 47.7% for his career, is a bit of a fly ball guy which may not go over well in Yankee Stadium. We would definitely expect a rise in HR/9 and HR/FB, especially after he spent 2010 in spacious Target Field (30th in the majors in park factor for HRs).

To his credit, Rauch has been upping his ground ball numbers over the last three years, but they’re still low. 2010 was his second highest ever at 37.7% (high was 42.6 in 2004).

Cost here is a little hard to figure out, though. On the one hand, relievers have been getting big pay days this year, and Rauch will probably want that. However, as we established earlier, the market for him has been completely dead. He may have to settle for a team friendly deal. He made $2.9MM last year, though, so he will probably require a decent raise.

Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth between about $3-4.5MM over the last three seasons. Though as Joe Pawlikowski noted in a piece on that same site last week, fWAR could undervalue relievers. Based on that statement, and the dollar numbers, I think I’d be comfortable giving Rauch a deal worth $5MM for one season. He may not want a one year deal, though. Going to two years is the most I would want, and I’d feel comfortable bumping the salary up to about $9MM with some incentives thrown in. Considering the market for Rauch along with that of other relievers, I think that would be fair. What do you think? Should the Yankees go for Jon Rauch? Am I hypothetically offering too much?

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On to Floyd?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Dec 202010

The Yankees missed out on Kansas City Milwaukee right handed Zack Greinke over the weekend, but there are still some other options out there. The headliner–at least that we know of–is Gavin Floyd. Some could’ve considered Ricky Nolasco the best available pitcher, but he is optimistic about being able to stay with the Marlins. That leaves the White Sox’s right hander as the available trade piece.

We’ve heard, though, very little on Floyd of late and the post from MLBTR gives us no indication as to what the White Sox would like in return. Before we discuss that, let’s see if Floyd is someone worth trading for. The first thing we have to decide is whether it makes economic sense to trade for Floyd. To Cot’s we go.

Floyd is signed through the 2012 season, with a $9.5M club option for 2013. Next year he makes $5M and in 2012 he makes $7M. At those prices, Floyd is outrageously affordable. In terms of age, he’ll be 28 when the 2011 season starts.

Now let’s move on to production. Since joining the Chicago rotation full time in 2008, Floyd has averaged 196 innings pitched, a 3.99 ERA (114 ERA+), a 1.285 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 2.45 K/BB. Those are good numbers. He’s given up exactly one homer per nine innings in that stint as well, which is a negative for someone possibly joining the Yankees. However, U.S. Cellular Field had the highest park factor (1.545) for home runs in 2010 (Yankee Stadium had the third highest at 1.420) so that could contribute a bit.

Running counter to that, though, are Floyd’s batted ball numbers. In each of the last three years, he’s lowered his FB% (39.7% in ’08; 33.2 in ’09; 32.1 in ’10) while upping his ground ball numbers (41.2/44.3/49.9). That signals a positive trend in batted ball data, especially considering Yankee Stadium. As a result, his HR/FB numbers have trended downward (11.8/11.2/7.6), as has his tRA, which is a contact based form of keeping track of runs. In short, the harder contact you give up the worse you look. Since just posting Floyd’s raw tRA numbers is unhelpful, I’ll post his tRA+ (think ERA/OPS+) numbers instead, courtesy of StatCorner: 99 in ’08; 112 in ’09; and 114 in ’10.

Over the last few years, Floyd has reduced his fly balls, increased his ground balls, and given up weaker contact. On top of all of those numbers, his FIPs have improved yearly as well: 4.77, 3.77, 3.46. Floyd is doing what pitchers in their mid-late twenties should do: adjusting his game and still producing results.

Gavin Floyd may not be the sexiest name in the world in terms of starting pitching, but he’s a solid pitcher who comes at a pretty cheap monetary cost. In terms of what it would take to get him, I have no idea since I can’t speak intelligently on the needs of the Chicago White Sox. I am, however, confident in saying that any possible deal for Floyd would not need to include Jesus Montero.

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Farewell to Arms: Despite Being Shutout of Off Season’s Best Pitchers, Greinke Deal No Cause for Panic

Posted by William J. at 10:34 am 7 Responses »
Dec 202010

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog)

Everybody knew that Zack Greinke would be traded before Spring Training, but the suddenness of the deal, not to mention the destination, was somewhat of a surprise. However, despite attempts to suggest the contrary, the Yankees were not caught off guard by the transaction.

As soon as Cliff Lee finally made up his mind, Greinke trade rumors became the new fuel for the hot stove. Because the Yankees and Rangers were both jilted by Lee’s decision, the natural assumption was that both would be the front runners for the Royal’s ace, but once again, a “mystery” team emerged from the pack. Not surprisingly, Greinke’s trade to Milwaukee was portrayed as another blow in the Yankees’ off season of discontent, but in reality, it was really evidence of a firm hand steering the ship.

Without a doubt, Greinke is a very talented pitcher, but some of the recent analysis of the trade seems to be based on the notion that the right hander’s real plateau is his 2009 Cy Young season, in which he had a WAR of 9.4 and ERA+ of 205, and not the more “normal seasons” that have surrounded it. That’s not to suggest Greinke isn’t a top of the rotation starter, however. In particular, WAR likes Greinke enough that his 2008 and 2010 seasons both ranked among the top-20 pitchers in all of baseball. Although ERA+ is less kind (ranked 21 in 2008 and 61 in 2010 among all qualified pitchers), Greinke’s performance before and after his Cy Young season has been strong enough to suggest continued success, especially with a move to the weaker NL Central, but that doesn’t mean he should be viewed along the lines of Lee or any other top ace in the major leagues.

On the Strength of a Historic 2009 Cy Young Season, Zack Greinke Has Ranked Among the Best Starters in the Majors Since 2008

  2008 2009 2010 Total Rank
WAR 4.9 9.4 5.2 19.6 4
ERA+ 126 205 100 133 11
xFIP 3.76 3.15 3.76 3.55 11

Note: Minimum of 450 innings.
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

It remains to be seen how well the Royals made out in the deal (respected evaluators like ESPN’s Keith Law and BP’s Kevin Goldstein disagree somewhat), nor is it certain that the Yankees could have offered a similar package without including higher end prospects like Jesus Montero. Regardless, it seems as if the Yankees made an informed decision that Greinke’s past health issues and overall performance, combined with the asking price, all conspired to make him a less than ideal alternative to the team’s failed pursuit of Lee. In other words, there likely wasn’t any panic in the Yankee offices when the Greinke deal was announced.

So, if Greinke wasn’t the best fit for the Yankees, who is? Even with the return of Andy Pettitte, the Yankees will still need to fill one rotation slot. Mark Buehrle seems to be an ideal candidate, but White Sox GM Kenny Williams has stated that the veteran lefty is not on the trading block. One pitcher rumored to be available is the Rays’ Matt Garza. However, even if Tampa was willing to trade within the division, the volatile right hander’s declining peripherals suggest that he wouldn’t qualify as a frontline starter, nor be worth the expected cost. In fact, he has the hallmarks of another A.J. Burnett, and the Yankees likely have their fill of pitchers with that profile.

Considering the lack of attractive options, the Yankees may well decide to entrust the role to rookie Ivan Nova and then bide their time for a midseason acquisition. Patience has been the off season-long theme for the Yankees, and the Royal’s trade of Greinke shouldn’t trigger a change of course. It might be hard as a fan to accept, but as long as Brian Cashman practices what he preaches, the 2011 season remains in good hands, even if the Yankees seem to be lacking the necessary arms.

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