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Discussion: Which Killer B Is Best?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 5:00 pm 36 Responses »
Dec 152010

The high-ceiling trio of Dellin Betances, Manuel Banuelos, and Andrew Brackman are all on the cusp of the major leagues. Although they probably do not compare with Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy in terms of value (the Big Three were way ahead in terms of being better prospects), they do find themselves in a similarly comparable position. Usually when we compare prospects, we’re comparing apples an oranges. Who’s better, the above average-looking catcher in Double-A or the 17 year-old potential all-star in rookie ball? So much separates those players that there really isn’t much to argue. They all started the season in A ball and finished it in Double-A, and are all high-ceiling starting pitchers. I also think that there is an argument out there for each one being the best.

So, who’s the best Killer B? Back in September when I ranked them, I listed Manuel Banuelos as #1, Andrew Brackman as #2, and Dellin Betances as #3. I see no reason to change those rankings now.

I believe that Manuel Banuelos is the best Killer B for a number of reasons. First off, he does not carry the serious injury concerns of Dellin Betances and to a lesser extent Andrew Brackman. He missed half a season with a non-baseball related injury, but has received great comments from several scouts about having a smooth, effortless delivery. He may be small (a foot shorter than Brackman!), but that concerns more more down the line, not immediately. Just a year ago he was considered a top prospect because he threw great secondary pitches and was universally recognized as having poise and pitchability beyond his years. Take that, and realize that all of the sudden he’s not throwing 90-91, but 93-95 from the left side. He’s a safer prospect than people realize (unlike the other two Killer Bs) yet has tons of upside.

I ranked Andrew Brackman second, and below several other Yankee prospects, for a lot of reasons. First off, he’s getting to be a bit old. While I don’t blame Brackman – he had an unorthodox path to the majors – it does raise concerns about his upside. I’m not sure how much more development we can expect out of him. That said, its not like Brackman is lacking in physical tools. The man throws in the mid-90s on a pretty nasty downward plane, and tops it off with one of the best curveballs around. He’s 6’10″ and athletic, and even managed to flash pretty good control last season. But he’s far from a safe product. While he was pretty good in the second half of last season, he could very well lapse into the funk that he could not get out of in 2009. Arm surgery explains some of it, but not all of it. I guess I just have trouble seeing Brackman consistently bring it in the majors, despite the package he brings. He’s on track to definitely be some kind of major league pitcher, but there is a lot of variance in how good he could end up being.

To me, Dellin Betances is a no-brainer at last place. Its not for lack of ability – I ranked Betances #1 ahead of both of them in my all-ceiling ranking. Dellin came back from surgery to throw like the absolute monster he could be – 95-96 with lots of movement and awesome secondary pitches. He’s not just a tall guy, but a really strong, built man, and he has finally matured into that body. The guy can chainsaw through hitters. A lot of people have ranked him #2 in the system after Montero. But come on! Dellin Betances is the Rich Harden of minor leaguers. He’s got a terrible health record, having only stayed healthy for one full season in his career. I’d give him more credit had his 2010 season been a 130+, healthy season, but he didn’t even pitch a full season this year. I’ve learned from being burned so many times by Betances over the years. I’m not buying yet, though I acknowledge the big step forward he made in 2010 by finally putting it all together.

But that’s my opinion. What do you guys thing?

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Burnett Went Through Divorce This Season? (Update: Nope)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 7 Responses »
Dec 152010

Update: Marc Carig is reporting that Burnett’s agent is denying this story. While it is possible that Burnett did have domestic issues, he is not divorced.

The question mark is in the title because the source is Colin Cowherd. Mike Silva has the quote:

Via NYBD reader Gregg Ferrara who is listening to ESPN Radio
“Colin Coward on Burnett divorce The stories are ugly. Wife was vindictive and spiteful. Think of worst divorce you’ve heard and double it”
I guess this might explain the black eye and poor 2010 season.

This information does not provide an excuse for Burnett’s poor season, as he was being paid a ton of money to perform no matter his situation at home. However, it may be an explanation for a season that was vastly out of line with his career numbers. We often forget that these players are not automatons, and that they have lives that they may be unable to prevent from impacting their job performance much like anybody else.

If Burnett’s tumultuous personal life was to blame for at least part of his decline, that might give hope that Burnett sees some sort of resurgence in 2011. Brian Cashman seems to think so, as he has said on a few occasions that what was bothering Burnett last season is gone and that he therefore believes AJ will bounce back. We now have context for Brian’s remarks, and although I remain skeptical that AJ will return to the guy he was in 2009, I feel pretty confident that his 2011 will be better than 2010 was simply because 2010 was not in line with a typical aging pattern. No matter what you think about the “divorce impacting performance” theory, you would likely expect an improved Burnett in 2011.

Finally, this lends some context to comments AJ made about Joe Girardi back when he was not included in the ALDS rotation:

“Joe’s the best manager I ever played for,” Burnett said. “He’s done more for me this year probably than any manager has ever done. He cares about me as a person and as a player. I’ll be down in that pen and be ready to get one out or two outs or whatever I’ve got to do for him.”

At the time it was unclear what was meant by these remarks, but you can surmise that AJ appreciated Girardi’s support through his divorce process, his tempter tantrum in which he cut his palms, and the black eye incident. Being that this is the first we are hearing about the divorce, it seems that the entire organization was discreet and respectful of the issue, which is good to see.

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Jesus Montero's Place On The 2011 Team

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 12 Responses »
Dec 152010

With Russell Martin under control, the Yankees have an interesting conundrum on their hands. Before it looked like Martin would be available, the Yankees were prepared to commit to the 2010 season with Jesus Montero as their primary catcher. Francisco Cervelli would back him up, and Posada would DH.

Assuming that the Yankees do not trade Jesus Montero, they now have some decisions to make. How do they bring their top prospect up into the majors? Russell Martin will bring his 2-3 WAR production to the team for 2 years now, but Jesus Montero isn’t going to wait for 2 years. He hit a robust .289/.353/.517 at Triple-A last year, including .351/.396/.684 in a monster second half. He improved his defense up to an acceptable (if poor) major league level. He doesn’t have a lot to gain by waiting for two years. And he still needs to catch full time. Montero made big strides over the past season and a half once he started catching 5 days a week, and the Yankees would be making a big mistake by reversing that trend.

So, what do you do? As far as I can tell, the Yankees have three options. They could trade Jesus Montero for a pitcher. They could bring Montero up right away, but play him only 2-3 days a week behind the plate (and possibly some DH some) while Martin remains nominally the starting catcher. Or they could let him sit in the minors until he either forces his way into the majors or Martin forces his way off the team.

Of these options, I prefer the third. Montero gains long term by playing every day no matter where he does it. The Yankees can bring him up when he’s on a hot streak, or even when the weather is warm. Cold weather was was theory to explain Montero’s very slow start last season, as he had never played a cold weather game before. The Giants did this with Buster Posey last season, and it worked very well.

As an added bonus, they also give Russell Martin some time to try and rebound. If he becomes his old self, or some fraction of it, he will both have value to the team and to other teams. Say the Yankees call Montero up in late-May, and he immediately hits. His defense isn’t too bad, and the team is confident that he represents the future option. Martin would then present a great trade chip to acquire the kind of pitching that the Yankees will surely need. The Yankees would be further adding to their surplus of catching talent, and could leverage it for some team’s surplus pitching talent.

A quick aside about trading Montero: now is not the time to do it. There aren’t a lot of particularly satisfying options out there, and prices will definitely rise after the free agent spending spree that we saw. Once teams start to fall out of contention, more options will be on the market, and the Yankees have a good enough team to keep them in contention for some time now. A strong start from A.J. Burnett or Phil Hughes could even negate the need for another pitcher. And Montero is a really, really good player who shouldn’t be traded lightly.

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Fred for Fourth?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 10 Responses »
Dec 152010

One of the small pieces the Yankees need going into the 2011 season is a competent fourth outfielder. Matt Diaz was scooped up by the Pirates and we’ve heard nothing on the Scott Hairston front. Both of those would’ve/would be good options. The Yankees have also apparently inquired on Jerry Hairston, Jr. He can play outfield–and infield–but his bat isn’t good enough to be the fourth outfielder.

Another option we’ve heard little about this Hot Stove Season is Fred Lewis. Lewis was traded to the Blue Jays on April 15 of this year from the San Francisco Giants. The Jays, in turn, non-tendered Lewis on December 2nd.

For his career, Lewis has been just about average. His OPS+ sits at 102 and his wRC+ sits at 108. He has a career line of .272/.348/.418, good for a .766 OPS and a .339 wOBA. It doesn’t really get more average than that.

His IsoP of .146 is also quite average. It’s a little low considering his high career strikeout rate of 25.5%, but he augments those swings and misses with a good deal of walks–9.42%.

Adding to the averageness, we have a -0.4 raw UZR in 309 career games in LF out of a possible 375. Lewis strikes me as the perfect fourth outfield candidate. His services are not in high demand; he’s going to come rather cheaply; and he can produce at or around league average. The only problem, though, is the platoon split.

Lewis, a left handed batter, is not very good against left handed pitching. For his career, he owns a .296 wOBA against fellow southpaws (.348 against RHP). This definitely hurts his chances since the Yankees will most likely need the services of a fourth outfielder when they face left handed pitching.

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Some perspective on losing Lee

Posted by Steve S. at 7:00 am 13 Responses »
Dec 152010

Many, if not most Yankee fans are licking their wounds right now over their dreams of seeing Cliff Lee in a Yankee uniform being dashed by his decision to sign with the Phillies. I wanted to add a few notes of perspective for those who think the Yankee chances for next year and beyond are greatly diminished.

1-Long term deals on pitchers rarely work out well

Sam Borden of LoHud discusses this in his column this morning. He writes:

The rejection is a blessing. The Yankees may not think so. Not right now, at least. But they also thought giving Carl Pavano a four-deal was going to work out.

Examples like that are littered all over baseball, carcasses of long-term deals for pitchers that went sour. Mike Hampton. Kevin Brown. Russ Ortiz. Barry Zito. Did the Yankees get a positive return on their deal with Mike Mussina? Sure. But let’s not act like they’ve got a great batting average on these deals, either. Kei Igawa hasn’t exactly been a good investment for $46 million. A.J. Burnett sure doesn’t look like one, either, at just about twice that price.

If Lee had signed with the Yanks, we’d be reading article after article about all the things that could go wrong, and how rarely these deals go right. Remember what Kevin Goldstien of Baseball Prospectus wrote recently, that when the money gets as crazy as this, the winner most often the team that finishes 2nd in the bidding. You’re paying for past performance for a 32 year old pitcher. 

2-The Yanks aren’t worse off today

As difficult as it may be to hear right now, the Yanks haven’t suffered any significant losses from the team that went to the ALCS this past year. The 2011 Yankees aren’t any worse than the 2010 team, they just didn’t get any better by adding Lee. Here’s the players that the Yanks have lost so far this off season from last year’s roster:

Javier Vazquez-Marlins

Lance Berkman-Cardinals

Juan Miranda-Diamondbacks

Do any of those losses concern you? Nope. There are still some key potential losses in Andy Pettitte and Kerry Wood, but until they sign with other teams (or in Andy’s case officially retire) they are still in play. Brian Cashman now has an extra 23 mil to play with, and we all know he’s going to spend some if not all of it to improve the club. It’s also worth noting that two of their main rivals from 2010, the Texas Rangers (Lee) and Tampa Bay Rays (Crawford, Soriano, Pena) have suffered huge losses and have much work to do if they just hope to stay even. The field is worse, and while the Red Sox have improved lets not forget they finished with 89 wins and were 7 games back last year. The Sox needed to improve to catch up.

3-Lee would guarantee nothing

The 1990s Atlanta Braves teams had starting rotation that featured 3 future Hall of Famers in Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, and was rounded out by some fine pitchers like Steve Avery, Denny Neagle and Kevin Millwood. The won 104 games in 1993 and 100+ games for three straight years from 1997-1999. The have one World Series championship to show for a decade of dominating the National League. Further, the team that went all the way in 1995 wasn’t one of their best editions, going 90-54 in the regular season. Point being, we’ve seen All-Star rotations assembled before and it doesn’t necessarily translate into winning championships. It may improve your odds a bit, but we all know the playoffs are still a crapshoot. Adding Lee simply doesn’t mean as much as most fans would like to think it does.

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