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AL Run Scoring Way Down In 2010

Posted by EJ Fagan at 4:55 pm 1 Response »
Dec 132010

Back in June, I wrote a post about how AL run scoring had declined in the first half of the year to 1992 levels. Despite some speculation that run scoring would rebound in the warm summer months, second half run scoring was actually significantly lower than first half, and the AL finished at 4.45 runs scored per game. An updated graph:

For whatever reason, run scoring plummeted this year back to the levels last seen before the home run era. I’d suspect that it partially cyclical (a wave of talented young pitchers has arrived) and partially due to teams better valuing defensive players, but also an effect of performance-enhancing drugs exiting the game. Health might also be important. Factors that make it easier on pitchers tend to cascade, as pitchers who take less of a beating pitcher longer into games, which means the worser members of a bullpen pitcher less, which lowers ERA.

But the significantly different environment really does change how we evaluate players. The average hitter batted .260/.327/.407 in 2010, but .267/.336/.428 in 2009. That difference helps to make the decline of players like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter more drastic, and disguises how big of a step forward players like Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner and Robinson Cano made. On the other hand, it makes the performances of Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett seem that much worse. Statistics indexed to the league average, like ERA+ and OPS+ become that much more important. Also, rough calculations on the back of the envelope for things like WAR and wins should use 9 runs per win as a baseline instead of 10 runs per win.

Also, the gains from things like stolen bases, bunts, hit and runs, etc become more pronounced. Leverage becomes more useful as ballgames are tighter, so teams with stronger bullpens will reap some advantages. Its also theoretically easier to break in young pitchers, who will be entering a more forgiving run scoring environment. All of these probably net benefit the Yankees more than their opponents, so this is all good news.

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Case for Cooperstown: Larry Walker

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Dec 132010

Before you know it, the Hall of Fame voting results will come out and we’ll see who makes it. I’m hoping for Bert Blyleven to finally get into Cooperstown, but I won’t hold my breath. Larry Walker is on the ballot for the first time. Let’s see if he has any chance.

On raw numbers alone, it’s hard to argue against Walker. He’s got a career line of .313/.400/.565/.965 with a 140 OPS+, .414 wOBA, and 145 wRC+. He hit 383 homers in his career, averaging 32 per 162 games. He led the league in batting average three times, OBP/SLG/OPS twice, as well as 2B/HR/TB once each. He won the NL MVP in 1997. He OPSed under .841 in only two full seasons (.807 in 1991, .761 in 1990).

The problem, though, is that walker played most of his home games in Coors Field. A lot of people think that game him an advantage on offense. Of course, though, it’s worth noting that OPS+ adjusts for a player’s home park, and that still gave Walker a 140 OPS+. It’s worth noting that no matter where Walker called home–Coors, Olympic Stadium, or Busch Stadium–he hit well: 1.172 OPS at Coors, .890 at OS, and .926 at BS. Granted, those numbers are rather simplified, but the point stands: Larry Walker was a damn good hitter. Let’s look at his bWAR numbers.

Walker tallied 67.3 bWAR, an average of exactly 4.0 per season (6.2 per 162 games). The only eligible (sorry Pete Rose) hitters with that many bWAR NOT in the HOF are: Bill Dahlen and Bobby Girch. It would appear that Walker has just about everything going for him. If I had a vote, I’d probably give him one. Then again, I guess I’m more of a “Big Hall” guy than most (though I’d still vote against guys like Jim Rice and Andre Dawson). Would you guys vote for Walker?

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WAR Projections: Brett Gardner

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 10 Responses »
Dec 132010

To say Brett Gardner had a surprising 2010 would be an understatement. Behind a fantastic walk rate of 13.9%, Gardner ended up with a .383 OBP and a .358 wOBA. All of that led to a 123 wRC+. Combine that with a 21.9 UZR, and you get a fantastic 5.4 fWAR.

There are people that doubt Gardner can do that again. I’m going to cautiously agree. To expect a guy with as little a track record as Gardner to put up a 5.4 fWAR season again is expecting a lot. But, then again, a .358 wOBA is definitely do-able for Gardner, especially if he can keep walking like Nick Johnson. What do Bill James and CAIRO say for Brett?

James projects a .349 wOBA and CAIRO projects a .329 wOBA. To save time, let’s take the rough average of those two for our projection. That comes out to .339 for the average. We’ll use that going forward, using the same process as in my A-Rod post.

I’ll run this three ways: with Gardner playing CF full time, with Gardner playing LF full time, and with a hybrid approach. For they hybrid approach, I’ll use the same positional adjustment as this year: -4.4. We’ll also assume +10 defense for LF, +7 for CF, and +8.5 for the hybrid (average of the two). I realize those are aggressive numbers, but I’m comfortable going that high for Gardner. Assume 10 runs per win.

CF: 3.56 fWAR
LF: 2.86 fWAR
LF/CF: 3.02 fWAR

Those numbers look pretty okay to me. The 2.86 fWAR might look crappy compared to last year’s, but let’s remember that 2010 was likely Gardner’s absolute ceiling and that considering how little he’s paid, he’ll likely still be a valuable asset at 2.86 WAR.

We’ve also got to remember that the 3.02 fWAR scenario is most likely, especially if Gardner continues his performance against lefties while Curtis Granderson continues to struggle a bit (unless he really is #cured), and a platoon guy like Scott Hairston is signed to hit against LHP.

.339 is also a bit low on the projection, considering he just wOBA’d .358. I don’t think he’ll get as high as .358, but I don’t think he’ll go as low as .339. In projecting, though, it’s probably better to be conservative.

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Yankee news and notes-December 13th

Posted by Steve S. at 6:58 am 4 Responses »
Dec 132010
"Ok maybe I still am a kid. This place is awesome!"-Joba Chamberlain

"Ok maybe I still am a kid. This place is awesome!"-Joba Chamberlain

-Jon Heyman still pushing the idea that there’s a “mystery team” involved in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Yawn. Whenever you hear an agent push the idea that there’s a unnamed team involved, it’s usually a ploy  to gain more leverage for his client. Remember the ‘mystery team’ that was after Manny Ramirez all winter two years ago? Boras wound up taking his client all the way to the middle of spring training and eventually signing the Dodgers initial offer. Always remember that as a rule, the highest offer lands the player with few exceptions. All reports have the Yanks with the highest offer. If I had to bet the rent money, Lee’s a Yankee.

-Old friend Hideki Matsui looks like he’s found a home for next year, and good for him.

-Nice writeup by Mike Axisa over at RAB breaking down Mark Buehrle, for those of you who’ve been wondering about him as a plan B for either Lee or Pettitte. Whether it’s Buehrle or Derek Lowe, I have trouble targeting ground ball pitchers with the Yankee left side of the infield as old and slow as it is. As a rule, the Yanks target guys who miss bats, and neither of those guys do .

-Looks like Roger hasn’t been missing many meals. And ‘Goodfellas 2′? Somewhere a shark just sprained a fin making that leap.

-According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Mariano Rivera’s agent initiated contact with the Red Sox. Which is another way of saying Fern Cuza was doing his job. This may be an attempt by the Red Sox brass to smooth over things a bit with the always-combustible Paps, or simply an honest answer to a direct question. Either way, it’s meaningless.

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