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CC Says He Will Not Opt Out After 2011 Season

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 3 Responses »
Dec 102010

Jim Baumbach with the money quote:

CC Sabathia says he won’t opt out after next season regardless of how much money Cliff Lee gets. “It’s got nothing to do with that.”

Additionally, CC spoke to Jill Martin at halftime of a Knicks game the other night, and RAB transcribed his response to a question about the opt-out:

“I signed up for seven years, and it’s a good organization. We have a chance to win a championship every year. I think that was an easy decision.”

I would love to take CC at his word and celebrate his decision, but he may come to realize that he would be leaving a ton of money on the table and change his mind before the opt-out deadline. Let’s assume that Cliff Lee gets a 7 year deal with a similar AAV to CC’s. Lee is a year older than CC will be next offseason, so if CC has another strong year he can expect a similar deal on next year’s market. That means that remaining in his current contract assumes that when his deal expires at age 34, he will be able to get more than a 3 year deal at 23 million dollars per year. That is a very risky assumption that I think most agents would counsel against.

There are obviously concerns other than money at issue here, but let’s not make it like CC has this deep attachment to New York. He is a West Coast boy who likely would happily move to L.A. if the Angels offered him a huge deal next offseason. New York is not the only place that he can be happy, win, and get paid, and I think there is at least a decent chance that he realizes that and becomes a free agent in the 2011 offseason. It will be very interesting to see how the Yankees approach him if he does choose to opt-out.

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Comparing The Yanks and Sox, By wOBA

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 16 Responses »
Dec 102010

SG over at RLYW released his updated CAIRO projections last night, so I thought it would be interesting to look at the wOBA projections for the Yankees’ and Red Sox’ lineups, being that both teams are pretty much set from 1-9. For those who are unaware, wOBA is a catch-all measure of offense. It does not adjust for ballpark or position, and it is just trying to give a raw estimation of production.

Ellsbury .319
Crawford .347
Pedroia .355
Gonzalez .383
Youkilis .396
Ortiz .374
Drew .365
Saltalamacchia .319
Scutaro .333

Jeter .342
Swisher .357
Teixeira .384
Rodriguez .384
Cano .372
Posada .354
Granderson .346
Montero .337
Gardner .329

Here they are lined up without names:

NYY, BOS
.384, .396
.384, .383
.372, .374
.357, .365
.354, .355
.346, .347
.342, .333
.337, .319
.329, .319

It looks like the Red Sox might be a smidgen stronger in the middle, while the Yankees have the advantage at the bottom. If you unscientifically just tally up the wOBA’s on each team, you would get a gap of 14 points in favor of the Yankees, a minuscule difference across 9 spots. In all, these are two excellent lineups, with the Yankees possibly having the slight advantage of being a little deeper. Now it is up to Brian Cashman to build a pitching staff that can hang with Boston’s and contend for a division title.

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Martin to Start if Signed?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 8 Responses »
Dec 102010

Via George King and Hardball Talk, the Yankees have made an offer to Russell Martin and apparently want him to start if the joins the Bronx Bombers. This is big news.

If true, it apparently signals a shift from the mindset that Jesus Montero was going to get the starting catching job out of Spring Training. Of course that doesn’t mean Montero won’t be on the Yankees in 2011, but we can see a path developing here.

It would seem that the Yankees are waiting on Cliff Lee, to whom they’ve apparently made a seven year contract offer. What does this have to do with Montero? Like we’ve all said all off season, if the Yankees don’t sign Lee, it’s possible that they go out and trade for a starter. If they do, Montero is likely to be part of the package. It will be very hard for the Yankees to get an impact starter like Zack Greinke or Francisco Liriano without giving up Jesus Montero.

If the Yankees don’t trade Montero–regardless of signing Lee or not–they could still give Martin the starting job, while starting Montero in AAA. This would give him more seasoning time, which never hurts, and delay his arbitration clock. I doubt the latter is the intention, though, since the Yankees will more than likely be able to afford Jesus’ arbitration raises.

I’m of the opinion that the Yankees will probably land Lee, making it unnecessary to trade Jesus Montero (unless they feel they could use the depth if Andy Pettitte retires). I think there’s a small chance they sign Martin to be the stater. If that’s the case, I hope they just stash Montero in AAA until they feel he’s ready. On another Montero note, the latest round of CAIRO Projections from Replacement Level has Montero projected as a .337 wOBA hitter in 2010. That is something I would most definitely accept.

Re-switching gears back to Martin.

There is always the possibility that what was said was not true. The starting catcher comment came from Martin’s agent, Matt Colleran. King’s article doesn’t have confirmation of that from the Yankees, so it’s possible that Colleran is doing his job and trying to get some leverage on his client’s side.

It’s also possible that the Yankees said that to Martin as an empty promise. Of course, they could give him the starting job out of Spring Training (if they sign him) then find countless reasons to take that job away from him.

Until we see a confirmation of this from the Yankees–or see it happen on Opening Day–I don’t believe Russell Martin will be the Yankees’ starting catcher. I do think, though, there’s a good chance he’ll be a Yankee anyway.

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