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Dec 312010

In 13 hours, 2010 will officially be in the books. We’ll have finished our 365th rotation around the sun and we’ll starting writing the first lines of the new year. However, we could argue that 2010 will be on-going, at least for us baseball fans. The Hot Stove season, however cooled it may be, is still burning and that gives us a link to 2010 and our new year won’t start until pitchers and catchers report in mid-February. But, in keeping with tradition, here’s some Yankee and baseball themed resolutions for us to try out:

–This is for a certain (growing) segment of Yankee fans: Stop being obsessed with what the Red Sox do. Yes they’re the Yankees chief rival but we can’t always look up I-95 (to 91 to 84…or the Merrit to 91 to 84 if you please) and say “WHY AREN’T THE YANKEES DOING THAT?!”

–Let’s remember that it’s still a 162 game season, a marathon, not a sprint. No one game or no one week is likely to decide the season. This goes for the team’s performance as well as the collective performances of the players.

–Maybe I can stop irrationally hating Ian Kinsler and Aaron Hill. I don’t even know why, but I get a lot more enjoyment rooting for them to fail than I do from anyone in the non-Red Sox division.

Regardless of your resolutions, or what you plan to change in your baseball-mind in 2011, let’s all remember that we’re at this blog for one common reason: we love the Yankees. That’s something that will carry us through 2011, just as it did through 2010.

Happy New Year, everyone!

Yesterday, we learned that Jim Callis regards the Yankees as a top-6 farm system in baseball. Accompanying them are probably going to be Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and possibly two of  Minnesota, Atlanta and Oakland. Among this group, how to the Yankees rank?

At the top of each organization, the Yankees probably have the best prospect. Jesus Montero’s main competition for the title probably includes Jeremy Hellickson in Tampa and the Kansas City trio of Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, and Mike Moustakas. I think Montero is a pretty clear choice  over that group – Hellickson is a really good prospect, but probably not a perennial all-star like Montero should be. Hosmer is a 1st baseman without a ton of power (though great at everything else), Montero will hit far better than Myers, and Moustakas is the worst player of the bunch. Montero’s your best player here.

Right below them, the Yankees rank two of Manuelos, Brackman, Sanchez, Betances, and Noesi at spots 2 and 3. No one in the group compares favorably to Kansas City’s dynamic group, led by the previously mentioned Wil Myers and Mike Moustakas. Tampa Bay’s Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore are clearly better than any of them too. However, the Yankees definitely have an edge up on Cleveland’s Alex White and Jason Kipinis, and no other system really comes close. This same advantage extends to the Yankees all the way down through their top six players. None of the teams has that kind of impact player depth in their farm system.

I really can’t judge the depth of the none-Yankee systems after that, as I’m not too familiar with the players. But I do know that the Yankees have the best group of prospects that they’ve ever had in the 8-15 rankings, headlined by guys like Slade Heathcott, Cito Culver, Brandon Laird, Adam Warren, and Graham Stoneburner. I have trouble imagining that many systems, if any, are that deep.

What’s the conclusion? The Yankees should not be ranked lower than 3rd, behind Tampa and Kansas City, in the overall organizational rankings. That would be the highest ranking that the Yankees have managed in recent memory (they ranked 5th in 2007 and 2002), and a huge step up from their 22nd overall panned ranking last season, which I think BA may regard as a mistake at this point. The Yankees do it on the backs of a whole lot of depth and Jesus Montero, who should yet again be a top-5 prospect in all of baseball. Even BA is starting to accept that Montero will stick at catcher for the time being in the majors, and everything knows how well he can hit.

Very encouraging stuff.

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog.)

The holidays are also major league baseball’s Hall of Fame season. Once the ballot is released after Thanksgiving, hundreds of BBWAA members endeavor to narrow down the choices, and in the process, usually write about their selections ahead of the official announcement on January 5. As a result, an undercurrent usually emerges from the collective prose to offer a hint as to the eventual outcome.

Unfortunately for the likes of Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines, Roberto Alomar and Alan Trammell, there really hasn’t been a resounding sentiment that would foreshadow their deserved elections. Instead, the major theme of the process has been steroids. With the addition of Rafael Palmeiro to the ballot, the focus on PEDs is certainly understandable. After all, despite collecting 3,000 hits among many other accomplishments, the former All Star first baseman is now best known for his finger pointing denial in front of Congress just months before testing positive for a banned substance in 2005. Interestingly, Palmeiro, who joins Mark McGwire on the ballot as a qualified candidate stained by PEDs, still maintains his innocence, but the overwhelming sentiment is that he has virtually no chance of being elected.

I was telling the truth then, and I am telling the truth now. I don’t know what else I can say. I have never taken steroids. For people who think I took steroids intentionally, I’m never going to convince them. But I hope the voters judge my career fairly and don’t look at one mistake.” – Rafael Palmeiro, quoted by AP, December 30, 2010

Although no one can come close to knowing the true impact that steroids and other “performance enhancing” drugs actually have on the playing field, it is perfectly legitimate to hold an admission or failed drug test against a particular candidate. According to the Hall of Fame’s BBWAA elections rules, “voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” Clearly, taking performance enhancing drugs calls into question the qualifications of integrity, sportsmanship and character. Of course, the impact of those qualities still has to be weighed against the overall contribution, not to mention measured against the prevailing attitude of the era. Nonetheless, when there is evidence of  PED use, it becomes reasonable to disregard an otherwise perfectly deserving candidate.

Unfortunately, far too many members of the BBWAA have gone beyond the careful consideration of evidence and allowed rumors, unverified allegations and, even worse, mere hunches to factor into their decision. The chief victim of this perverted process has been Jeff Bagwell. Although some might argue that Bagwell wasn’t as dominant as other more prominent first baseman of his era, it’s nearly impossible to build a case against him on a statistical basis. Based on his numbers and reputation within the game, Bagwell should be a slam dunk, no doubt about it, first ballot Hall of Famer. So, what’s the problem?

Apparently, a large segment of the voting population has gotten it into their heads that Jeff Bagwell did steroids. In what Craig Calcattera perfectly labeled “Steroid McCarthyism”, several eligible voters have openly accused Bagwell of being tainted without offering one shred of evidence to support their vitriolic allegations. Instead, these writers have cowardly hid behind hunches, suspicions and undisclosed circumstantial evidence to not only smear an individual, but make the entire process seem so illegitimate.

The baseless accusations against Bagwell are somewhat curious because his career followed the normal path that one would expect from a superstar player. At the age of 23, he broke into the majors as a productive player, had several strong peak years in his mid-to-late 20s and then slowly declined into his 30s until finishing his last full season at age 36. Unlike other players of the era, Bagwell did not resurrect a stalled career, nor find the fountain of youth in the years after his prime. He has repeatedly denied using PEDs, but that hasn’t stemmed the tide of cowardly innuendo. In fact, the repeated allegations have done so much damage that the truth probably doesn’t even matter anymore.

So much has gone on in the last eight or nine years, it’s kind of taken some of the valor off it for me. If I ever do get to the Hall of Fame and there are 40 guys sitting behind me thinking, ‘He took steroids,’ then it’s not even worth it to me. I don’t know if that sounds stupid. But it’s how I feel in a nutshell.” – Jeff Bagwell, quoted by ESPN.com, December 29, 2010

Another argument many have used against Bagwell is “guilt by association”. Although no evidence exists about his personal use, the theory goes, he still warrants a scarlet letter because of the era in which he played. Clearly, that’s a nonsensical approach to the issue that can’t possibly be applied with any consistency. In fact, one who holds that sentiment should recues himself from the voting process.

Over the past 10-20 years, it has become obvious that the voting process for the Hall of Fame needs a major overhaul. Just as it has demonstrated with its annual post season awards, the BBWAA is no longer uniquely qualified to serve as the sole arbiter of baseball’s greatest honor. Before the advent of the internet and proliferation of television, sportswriters, by virtue of their access, were among a select group of people with particular insight into the game. Nowadays, however, that is no longer the case. On the contrary, the aging BBWAA population has proven to be significantly out of touch with the game’s development, and therefore woefully inadequate in its role as a third-party overseer. This disintegration is perfectly illustrated by the dozens of trade group members who have deemed themselves qualified to serve as doctors and lawyers when considering Hall of Fame candidates.

The current electorate’s inability to see the distinction between Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven is disturbing enough, but its mob mentality in handling players like Bagwell is really the last straw. Using pens as pitchforks, some BBWAA members have torched reputations and tarnished accomplishments, all in the name of preserving the game’s integrity. In reality, however, the opposite has been true. Therefore, the time has come for major league baseball and the Hall of Fame to take a serious look at the electoral process as well as the qualifications of those casting votes.

There are many intelligent, thoughtful sportswriters who should remain a part of the process, but as recent events have proven, there are also many who should not. Simply being a tenured member of a trade group should not merit such a distinct honor. Last decade, baseball endeavored to clean up the game by enacting a strict drug testing regimen. This decade, it should aim to revamp the Hall of Fame election process by ensuring that a more deserving and better qualified group of voters is entrusted with preserving its history. It’s time to put an end to the age of suspicion, and those who wish to wallow in rumor and innuendo should be left behind.

Back in August, Jim Callis of Baseball America was asked if the Yankees had a top 10 farm system. He was noncommittal, but suggested that they might be ranked in that range and were certainly in the conversation. Yesterday, he was asked a similar question, and his answer was an encouraging one for Yankees fans:

Yes. @mitchellnj: #Yankees Top 6 Farm System?

As I said back in August, this ranking displays the growth of the Yankees system over the last few months. Players such as Jesus Montero and Manny Banuelos retained the status they achieved last year, while Andrew Brackman and Dellin Betances had recovery years. Meanwhile, some players considered lesser prospects stepped up this year, as Hector Noesi, Brandon Laird, Ivan Nova, and Eduardo Nunez all bolstered their prospects status. Finally, some recent draftees and signings had big seasons or at least showed some promise, with Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Corban Joseph, Jose Ramirez and Graham Stoneburner all popping up on the prospect radar.

The Yankee system is not yet elite, and it remains somewhat thin on the position player side. However, it took a major step forward this year, and considering how the Yankees offseason went, the availability of pitching prospects in the upper levels of the minor leagues is a boon to a team that needs all the pitching depth it can get. The farm system is there to supplement the major league club when necessary, and it seems that the Yankee system should be a source of cheap talent and trade fodder for the Yankees over the next 3 to 5 years or so.

Andrew Brackman is a better pitcher than most people realize. That’s a bit odd, because Brackman has also mostly been a disappointment to fans since he was drafted. In his freshman and sophomore years in college, Brackman was a 100 mph fireballer. That and his size earned him routine comparisons to Randy Johnson, and it was probably deserved. He was likely to be considered for the 1st overall pick in the draft, and quickly move on to become a major league ace.

Of course, we all know that things worked out differently. He didn’t recover fully from his elbow injury (perhaps because he waited to be drafted and handled $4 million dollars before undergoing it), and had trouble adjusting to both a long layoff and reduced velocity. Nothing was really working for him a year ago. Now, he’s completed the Double-A level, has recovered to 93-95 mph, and has some of his mechanics better locked down.

In a perfect world, Brackman would be given at least one more year to pitch and settle down his mechanics. That’s not really something you can do in the major leagues. He would be allowed close to a full season at Triple-A, a 160+ inning workload, and be pressed into service when he would be most likely succeed. Unfortunately, two factors make this difficult. First, the Yankees have a need, and Brackman may present the best option right now for a MLB pitcher to help the Yankees win the AL East. And second, and more importantly, Brackman has only one option year left. For some unknown reason, the Yankees signed him to a major league deal at the draft, despite knowing that he would immediately undergo Tommy John surgery. This means that once Spring Training 2012 ends, he must either be on the MLB team (mostly likely in the rotation), put on waivers, or traded.

I think that the Yankees interest and Brackman’s development plan may align somewhat. Brackman, if he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, will begin 2011 at Triple-A. Around the middle of the season, assuming he is pitching well, the Yankees could call him up and make him a regular member of the rotation. He’ll be allowed to pitch 60-100 innings at the level, and then prepared for a permanent spot in 2012. The Yankees probably wouldn’t be ready to commit to Brackman’s rotation spot out of spring training unless their hand was forced, which it is. I think this is a good thing – if the Yankees are pressured by Brackman’s lack of options to commit to his 2012 rotation spot, then they’ll have to do the necessary call up in 2011 (especially if they need starters, which they probably will) to make that happen. If he’s pitching well enough to deserve that call up, this actually works out well both for the short term team interests and Brackman’s long term development.

Of course, this could all be moot if Brackman either makes the team out of spring training, or goes back to pitching poorly. Hell, if the Yankees look at Brackman in spring training and his mechanics are all clean, and he’s throwing 96 mph, and they don’t bring in another starter, they would wise to go straight with him. Pitching and physical abilities aren’t what the man lacks. Its just all mechanical. But I don’t think that’s likely – just like in 2009, Brackman may need some time to get going before everything’s working well. He needs less Triple-A experience than he simple needs experience.

Dec 302010

A lot of us have said–and I have, too–that one of the pluses about the Yankees not signing Cliff Lee is that they will have the ability to add a lot more payroll in the middle of the season. While we have absolutely no idea what the trade market will look like in season, we can speculate that guys with expiring deals are the ones who will likely be on the trading block.

This thought drove me to Cot’s to check out the potential free agent starters for the 2011-12 Hot Stove Season. There’s a decently sized list, but there are only a few names worth looking at.

The first one to pop out is Mark Buehrle. I’m not the biggest fan of Buehrle, but if he becomes available (unlikely), he’s worth at least thinking about. In every year from 2001 through 2010, Buehrle pitched at least 201 innings. If anything, he could eat innings for a Yankee rotation that may be hurting for them. That’s about the most attractive thing from the left hander from the White Sox.

Next comes Chris Carpenter, but his case is a little different. He has a $15M option ($1M buyout) for the 2012 season, and the Cardinals might want to exercise it instead of trading him mid-season. Carpenter doesn’t strike many guys out (under 7.0 K/9 in the last two years), but he’s got good control and generally keeps the ball in the park. Since coming back from injury, he’s also pitched a good amount of innings, 192.2 in ’09 and 235 in ’10. He also has a GB% over 50% for his career and the last two years. I would definitely want him over Buehrle if they were both available.

The next player worth looking at is another lefty, Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez. Of the guys on this list, he’s the most likely to be available. Mike Axisa laid the case out nicely here.

Lastly, there’s C.J. Wilson (go ahead and swoon, ladies…I still don’t get why you think this guy is so attractive). Wilson broke out with the Rangers last year, pitching to a 3.35 ERA while racking up 4.4 fWAR in exactly 204 innings. He did a great job keeping the ball in the park (0.44 HR/9), had a good amount of strikeouts (7.50 per nine), but struggled a bit with command (4.10 BB/9). As Moshe alluded to yesterday, the Rangers are projected to be in fairly good shape, but you never quite know with the A.L. West, especially so early in the off season. I wouldn’t bet on Wilson being available and the big innings jump from 2009 (73 IP as releiver) to 2010, I’m not sure I’d want him.

This is all incredible speculation. I have no idea where the White Sox, Astros, Cardinals, or Rangers will be in the middle of 2010. I feel comfortable saying the Astros probably won’t be competing, but the other three teams will all likely be buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline.

It’s also worth noting that I limited this target list a lot in choosing only guys who are set to be free agents after this coming season. Players become available at the drop of a hat for any reason and we could definitely see that happen during the 2011 season.

Yesterday’s Bobby Jenks – Oney Guillen brouhaha spurred some discussion about Jenks’ character, and brought a 2005 ESPN article about Jenks and his upbringing to my attention. The article suggests that Jenks is lacking in terms of intelligence, and that he is a “backwoods” guy with a drinking problem. The following anecdote caught my eye:

His ex-agent says Bobby Jenks used to call him D.J., short for Dirty Jew.

The agent says Bobby would say it casually on phone messages — “Call me back, D.J.” — and while Bobby denies it, it’s a window into the mystery of a backwoods pitcher.

The relationship between agent Matt Sosnick and Jenks seemingly did not end well, such that I cannot take anything said in the aftermath of their split entirely at face value. However, assuming for a moment that Sosnick is telling the truth, the anecdote raises an interesting point. I wanted Jenks on the Yankees, and I am not sure how I would have felt, as a Jew, after reading the ESPN story if he was in pinstripes. So the question that I have is, how much leeway do you give as a fan to players who have questionable beliefs or have committed morally troublesome acts?

I tend to root for the uniform, and would have no overwhelming qualms about rooting for known cheaters and even criminals should the league rule the player fit to play. I want the Yankees to win, and if they adjudge the player to be a necessary piece in achieving that goal, I can swallow my misgivings and root for the laundry rather than the individual. I am sure that over the years, I have at some point supported racists and anti-Semites, albeit unbeknownst to me. Furthermore, it is often misguided to assume that we can determine the beliefs and value system of a player from a few quotes obtained through the media.

I can understand the competing perspective as well. Although we can claim that we are rooting for what the players do on the field rather than for their personalties, it is often difficult to separate the two. I can imagine that rooting for Michael Vick has made some animal-loving Eagles fans very uncomfortable, despite the fact that he is supposedly remorseful and rehabilitated. When you root for someone, you do not get to define how those cheers are interpreted, such that cheers for Michael Vick the football player are inevitably cheers for Michael Vick the person. In the case of bigotry such as that which Jenks is accused of, I can see how this reality that you are rooting for the individual would make many fans squeamish. Unlike in a case of criminal activity, where there is a legal system that can properly mete out justice for certain actions, bigotry is handled in the court of public opinion. Cheering for Jenks allows him to go “unpunished” in that realm, and in fact celebrates him where he should probably be chastised.

And so I am torn as to how I would have reacted to hearing this story about Jenks if he was a Yankee, and it has made me question my tendency to root for the laundry. Now that he is on the Red Sox, this story just gives me more reason to boo him, but him signing in New York would have complicated matters. I likely would have ended up swallowing my issues and rooting for him while he was with the club, but I am far from certain about that.

How about you? Do you blindly root for the uniform?

SG over at RLYW has posted his initial CAIRO projected standings for the 2011 season, with the caveat that it is really, really early to be drawing significant conclusions from the data. Regardless, they should provide a decent guide for where teams stand relative to one another at this point, so click through to view the standings and then come back here for some takeaways:

1) The AL East should be a dogfight again, although the Red Sox (98 wins) are clearly ahead of the Yankees (89) and Rays (87) at this point. However, it is important to note that the Yankees and Rays are not finished products, while the Red Sox look largely complete. Adding Andy Pettitte, a bullpen arm, and a bench bat would likely put the Yankees in the 93 win range and in the conversation for a division title if they got a few breaks. Even without adding anybody, they should be good enough to compete for a wild card spot, which allows Brian Cashman some cushion before he needs to address the starting rotation.

2) The Blue Jays project to win 74 games, and I would not be surprised to see the Orioles pass them in the standings this season. The Jays are just mediocre all over the field, and losses in both the rotation and the bullpen will hurt them mightily.

3) The Twins, Tigers, and White Sox all project between 86 and 84 wins, and I could see that division going down to the wire, with the Twins the slight favorite to come out on top. However, an argument could be made that all 3 AL East teams are superior to any of the Central teams, and I think it likely that the Wild Card once again goes to an AL East team.

4) The Rangers project as being 7 wins better than the improved Athletics and a whopping 12 wins ahead of the still unfinished Angels. Adrian Beltre and Rafael Soriano would help close that gap, and move the Angels to within striking distance in the division. I do not see another logical suitor for either player, and expect both to land in Los Angeles.

5) Other than the Phillies, the NL is a morass of decent-to-mediocre clubs that should make for some fascinating races. The Cards, Brewers, Reds, Rockies, Giants, and Dodgers should all contend for their respective division titles, while the losers in those divisions will likely compete with the Braves for the Wild Card. The NL seems to have achieved some measure of parity, and I would not be at all surprised to see 3 new playoff teams come out of the league.

An on going theme of 2010 for the Yankees has been the vast improvement of the minor league system. What was once barren has now been replenished. There may be some kinks to work out–a few more potential impact position players would be nice–but behind Jesus Montero, there are definitely some high quality arms we could see either this season or in the next one or two.

Adding to the praise of the revamped Yankee farm system is catching prospect Austin Romine. In a recent blog post by the Daily News’s Anthony McCarron, Romine spoke of the talent in the Yankees farm system.

“There are so many good pitchers in our organization and it’s being overlooked. DJ Mitchell, (David) Phelps, (Dellin) Betances, (Andrew) Brackman. They’re all really good. I had the good fortune to catch a few of them in Double A and see them go up and I’m really proud of that.

We’ve, rightly, heard a lot about Betances and Brackman this season. They both have high ceilings and made big strides this year. There’s still room to grow, though, as both need to stay healthy going forward. Brackman improved his control this year, cutting almost four (!!) walks per nine from his 2009 total. He kept his strikeout stuff, too, as he fanned 8.1 per nine (3.23 K/BB).

Betances pitched 85.1 innings in 2010, the second most of his career. He posted a career high 11.4 (!) K/9, while walking just 2.3 per nine (4.91 K/BB). If Big D can keep that performance up while still building up his innings, we could definitely see him in the Bronx in 2012.

Mitchell pitched 150.2 innings between Trenton (22 starts) and Scranton (3 starts). His WHIP was 1.400, but he did manage a 2.11 GB/FB rate at Trenton, as well as a 1.12 at Scranton. Aside from strikeout guys like Brackman and Betances, the Yankees should be focusing in groundball guys like Mitchell. While we’d probably like to see his K/9 creep over 7, as long as he gets grounders, we’ll be happy.

David Phelps had his second straight solid season in the Yankee system, posting a 3.92 K/BB and a 2.50 ERA across 158.2 innings between Trenton (88.1 IP) and Scranton (70.1 IP). Phelps pitches a lot of innings and gets good results; he’s another guy we could see make his debut in 2011.

Romine talked most about everyone’s favorite left hander, Manny Banuelos:

Banuelos out here was lights out in (the AFL All-Star game). That was one of the top starts I’ve seen.

“That’s tough for a 19 year old kid. Ninety percent of the guys on that field (in the AFL A-S game) are going to the big leagues and he came out and to pitch the way he did, he should be nothing but confident now. And I love seeing him gaining that confidence every month, it seems like, from when I got him from high A. He came up wide-eyed, a young kid. I didn’t know who he was and he was throwing gas. To see him mature over that time is great. He’s only 19 now and that’s young and he’s mature over his years.”

It looks like Romine saved his biggest praise for Banuelos and it’s well deserved. Of all the players mentioned, he probably has the best combination of upside and likelihood. Despite an appendectomy, Banuelos still managed to strike out 11.8 batters per nine innings while walking 3.5 per nine (3.40 K/BB). That 3.5 BB/9 is a bit inflated by bigger walk numbers in small appearances in the GCL and Trenton. In the place where he spent the most time, Tampa, Banuelos walked just 2.8 per nine.

I expect that we’ll be hearing big things out of all of these pitchers in 2011, Banuelos most of all. With each passing year, I get more and more pleasure out of following these guys in the minors. The best part of that is with each passing year, these guys get closer and closer to the big leagues.

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog.)

The New York Yankees are in the unfamiliar position of entering a new year without having made any significant improvements to the team. Although the free agent signings of Russell Martin and Pedro Feliciano are both positive complementary acquisitions, the team’s failure to make a big splash has left it vulnerable to a serious of question marks, one of which will become an exclamation point should Andy Pettitte decide to retire. Patience has been this offseason’s theme, and hopefully its virtue, so instead of looking too far ahead, perhaps it would be better to look back at past acquisitions over the last decade? Below is a list of the major names acquired (re-signings generally excluded) after each season (based on conventional wisdom at the time) along with an assessment of the group’s overall performance.

2009: Javier Vazquez, Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson

Fresh off their 27th World Series championship, the Yankees were far from complacent. The team said goodbye to veteran contributors Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui and replaced them Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson. Cashman also sought to round out what had been a top heavy rotation by acquiring what he hoped was a rejuvenated Javier Vazquez from the Braves. On paper, the Yankees got a little younger, if not better, heading into their title defense.

Until Granderson and hitting coach Kevin Long worked on an adjustment in August, Cashman’s three most significant offseason moves all looked as if they would come up snake eyes. Since returning to the lineup on August 12, however, Granderson posted a line of .261/.356/.564 in his final 192 plate appearances, and then followed that with an OPS above 1.000 in both the ALDS and ALCS. Unfortunately, there wasn’t a “rags to riches” end for either Johnson or Vazquez. After getting off to a poor start, Johnson developed his usually spate of injuries and was eventually shutdown for the season. Meanwhile, Vazquez temporarily rebounded from a poor beginning, but eventually resumed his struggles and ended the season with an ERA+ of 80.

2008: Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett

After making the playoffs in 12 consecutive seasons, the Yankees finished in third place under rookie manager Joe Girardi in 2008. With high salaries like Jason Giambi and Mike Mussina coming off the books, the Yankees pushed their chips all in and came away with a pair of aces and a wild card.

CC Sabathia’s acquisition was the linchpin, and with the big lefty in the fold, everything fell into place in 2009. Although not as dominant, A.J. Burnett turned in one his finest seasons and teamed with Sabathia and Pettitte to form a three-man rotation throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira was everything the Yankees expected, both with his potent bat and golden glove at first. When all was said and done, the three acquisitions played a monumental part in the Yankees’ return to glory.

2007: Alex Rodriguez* and LaTroy Hawkins

Even though Alex Rodriguez was already a member of the team, the whole production surrounding the opt out made his eventual return seem like a new acquisition. Perhaps distracted by the Rodriquez situation, the Yankees made few other significant additions. LaTroy Hawkins was expected to be a sold bullpen contributor, but after raising the ire Yankees fans by wearing Paul O’Neill’s unretired #21, he struggled mightily and was eventually trade to Houston.

Although Alex Rodriguez had a very strong 2008 campaign, he not only declined from his MVP form in 2007, but also missed 27 games. Still, Arod wasn’t the reason the team missed the playoffs. Instead, it was the failure to strengthen the rotation that did the Yankees in, especially when the team’s reliance on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy backfired. During the offseason, the Yankees were widely expected to trade for Johan Santana, so the team’s subsequent failure was seen as a repudiation of Cashman’s decision to forgo obtaining the Cy Young lefty from Minnesota. However, one season later, Cashman’s decision would be vindicated.

2006: Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa

In 2006, the Yankees had a powerhouse lineup, but the starting rotation proved rather thin. So, in addition to clearing out a few square pegs like an unhappy Gary Sheffield and Randy Johnson as well as Jaret Wright, the Yankees’ focus for 2007 was centered on acquiring a reliable starter. With the rest of the market both thin and overpriced, the team eventually wound up reuniting with Pettitte, who had left for Houston after the 2003 season, and rolling the dice on Kei Igawa, a move that was at least in part a knee jerk reaction to Boston’s acquisition of the more heralded Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Pettitte, who went 15-9 with a 112 ERA+, was exactly what the Yankees needed in 2007. Unfortunately, the rotation was little improved from the previous year because Mike Mussina suffered through the worst season of his career. What’s more, the signing of Igawa proved to be a colossal bust as the Japanese import was quickly exposed as nothing more than a triple-A talent. The Yankees’ continuing rotation crisis forced them to lure Roger Clemens out of retirement one more time, but even the addition of the 44-year old Rocket wasn’t enough. Not only did the team relinquish the division title for the first time since 1997, but its lack of pitching depth was exposed in the ALDS as the Cleveland Indians knocked the Yankees out of the playoffs in the first round.

2005: Kyle Farnsworth and Johnny Damon

The Yankees won their eighth consecutive A.L. East division title in 2005, but didn’t make it past the Angels in the ALDS. During the decade, the Yankees gradually drifted toward being a lineup of mashers that would compensate for a mediocre pitching staff by bludgeoning other teams, and 2005 was the pinnacle of that trend. Still, the Yankees most significant offseason move was to snatch Johnny Damon from the rival Red Sox and continue to gradually nudge Bernie Williams toward retirement. Damon was an immediate success in pinstripes and eventually wound up providing commensurate value over the entire term of the four-year deal, contrary to initial expectations at the time.

On the pitching side, the Yankees brought in Kyle Farnsworth to take the place of the departing Tom Gordon, who had proven to be an invaluable regular season reliever. The team made no adjustments to the rotation, however, despite its collective failure during the 2005 season. Instead, the Yankees seemed to roll the dice that Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina would rebound from disappointing years, while Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright would enjoy better health in their sophomore seasons in pinstripes. Only Mussina panned out, and the Yankees once again found themselves with a subpar rotation.

2004: Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Tony Womack, and Jaret Wright

The 2004 ALCS collapse to the Red Sox was a cataclysmic event that prompted the Yankees to pretty much replace their entire starting rotation. Javier Vazquez, Jon Lieber and Orlando Hernandez were all jettisoned from the staff in favor of Johnson, Pavano and Wright. Although much was expected from Johnson, the initial reaction to the acquisitions of Wright and Pavano was met with justified scorn. Neither would contribute much to the team over the terms of their contracts, but Pavano’s comical 145 innings over four season earned him a special brand of infamy. Luckily, the 2005 season would be saved by two unheralded acquisitions, Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small, who combined to go 17-3, as well as the emergence of Chien-Ming Wang from the minor leagues.

In 2004, Miguel Cairo had surprisingly strong season, but the Yankees smartly decided not to roll the same dice the following year. Unfortunately, they opted to go with an even worse option by signing Tony Womack, who quickly proved to be one of the more futile players in recent team history. Once again, however, fate played a favorable hand when the promotion of Robinson Cano not only added life to the lineup, but also forced the Yankees to incorporate a player who would eventually emerge as a bonafide star. In the meantime, however, Womack continued to be a drag on the lineup as a left fielder.

Although Johnson led the Yankees with a 17-8 record and a respectable 3.79 ERA, he wasn’t the dominant force that team thought it had acquired. Particularly because of the three brutal free agent signings, the 2004 offseason easily ranks as one of the worst in team history. It would take several seasons for the Yankees to free themselves from the mistakes made in the winter of 2004, which only added insult to the injury of that year’s shocking ALCS.

2003: Tom Gordon, Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown

The Yankees lost the 2003 World Series to the Marlins, but the euphoria from winning a dramatic ALCS against the Red Sox almost seemed to override that disappointment. Nonetheless, Brian Cashman wasn’t resting on his laurels, despite having a lineup and pitching staff that both performed well above average. On offense, the Yankees added a perennial masher in Gary Sheffield (even if Cashman’s preference for Vladimir Guerrero would have worked out better in the long run). However, an offseason injury to Aaron Boone added a significant hole at third base, which the Yankees wound up filling with the shocking acquisition of Alex Rodriguez. The idea of adding Arod and Sheffield to a lineup that already included Jason Giambi, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui seemed like enough to guarantee a return trip to the World Series…and it should have…except for a late season breakdown in the pitching staff.

In addition to a lineup overhaul, the Yankees also revamped the starting rotation by replacing Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens with Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown. On paper, the swap seemed to favor the Yankees, and the early returns were somewhat positive, but both Brown and Vazquez suffered a myriad of mental and physical breakdowns that quickly made their situation in the Bronx untenable. Both pitchers would contribute in a big way to the team’s game seven debacle in the ALCS and forever be branded as failures in the minds of Yankees fans.

The ALCS collapse also stained Tom Gordon, who had two outstanding regular seasons in pinstripes, and even Rodriguez, who was on his way to being the series MVP before going dormant over the final three games. Because of the team’s demise in the playoffs, the overall contribution of Cashman’s 2003 offseason acquisitions was largely discounted. Collectively, the quartet contributed 18.5 wins above replacement, but it was their high profile failures in the ALCS that would be remembered.

2002: Todd Zeile, Hideki Matsui, Jon Lieber and Jose Contreras

After the 2002 season, the Yankees were feeling the unfamiliar sting of an early exit from the playoffs. It was hard to get too worked up, however, because the team recorded 103 wins and outperformed statistically in just about every phase of the game. So, it seemed as if only minor additions would be needed.

Along with the addition of some depth in Todd Zeile and a reclamation project like Jon Lieber, the Yankees turned to the international market for reinforcements. Both Hideki Matsui and Jose Contreras were widely acclaimed as stars in their respective countries of Japan and Cuba, so much was expected from the two veterans. Matsui was always ticketed for the Bronx, but the pursuit of Contreras caused the first real resumption of hostilities between the Yankees and Red Sox when Boston General Manager Theo Epstein reportedly trashed his hotel room after learning of the Yankees’ signing. Although the conquest of Contreras also prompted Boston CEO Larry Lucchino to refer to the Yankees as the Evil Empire, it was the signing of Matsui, who hit a key double off Pedro Martinez in the fateful eighth inning of the 2003 ALCS, that would torment the Red Sox for years to come.

2001: Robin Ventura, Steve Karsay, Rondell White, Jason Giambi and David Wells

The Yankees responded to a shocking and bitter walk off defeat in the 2001 World Series by making several significant changes to the team. The most notable was the replacement of Tino Martinez with Jason Giambi, who at the time was one of the most feared hitters in the game. The Yankees also compensated for the retirement of Paul O’Neill and Scott Brosius with the signings of White and Ventura, respectively, before rounding out the bullpen and rotation with the addition of Karsay and the return of Wells.

With the exception of White, all of Cashman’s moves worked according to plan, and the team went onto to an impressive 103-win season, despite getting eliminated by the Angels in 2002 ALDS. Over the long term, however, the addition were mostly stop gap moves, with the exception of Giambi, whose declining skills and defensive limitations (not to mention steroid revelations) eventually made his contract an albatross.

2000: Mike Mussina

In a classic case of the rich getting richer, the three-time defending world champions responded to that season’s sudden decline of David Cone by replacing him with Mussina, one of the game’s best pitchers. The addition of Mussina helped give the Yankees a formidable front-line rotation in 2001 and provided the team with an anchor during a turbulent decade that featured more than its share of mediocre starting pitchers. Unfortunately, Mussina never won a World Series with the Yankees, but his 123-72 record over eight seasons in pinstripes is testament to the quality of the signing.

It’s hard to pinpoint which offseason from the recent past is most similar to the current one. In many ways, by putting all of their eggs in the Cliff Lee basket, the strategy resembles the team’s approach with Mussina after the 2000 season. Would the Yankees have returned to the World Series in 2001 and 2003 without the former Orioles ace? And, more importantly, will they go back soon without Lee?

Then again, with the Yankees anxiously awaiting a final decision from Andy Pettitte, this offseason could wind up resembling the 2006 winter when the veteran lefty’s return gave the Yankees’ rotation enough rope to hang on until a midseason reinforcement. We know it won’t end up looking like the treasure troves acquired after the 2003 and 2008 campaigns, but by the same token, Cashman’s philosophy of patience should help avoid the long-term negative ramifications from an offseason similar to 2004.

Unlike all of the offseasons mentioned above, the one difference from this year is there are still three more months until Opening Day. Although very few attractive free agents remain, there is still the possibility of a trade. From a historical perspective, Yankees’ fans just have to hope that if such a transaction occurs, it will turn out to be more like another Arod trade than the one for Randy Johnson.

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