This is the second in a series comparing the player’s projections to his results. I’m going to try to vary the format each time so this doesn’t get too stale.
1. Jorge Posada
2010 was a down year for Mark Teixeira. His slow start went a little longer than we normally expected and his year wasn’t quite the “back of the baseball card” year we’ve come to expect from Tex, though he did end up with a .367 wOBA and 3.5 fWAR.
BA: Projected: .280 low, .300 high. Actual: .256.
BABIP: Projected: .303 low, .320 high. Actual: .268.
OBP: Projected: .369 low, .395 high. Actual: .365.
IsoD: Projected: .088 low, .095 high. Actual: .099.
SLG: Projected: .505 low, .565 high. Actual: .481.
IsoP: Projected: .225 low, .268 high. Actual: .225.
wOBA: Projected: .381 low, .406 high. Actual: .367.
HR: Projected: 29 low, 36 high. Actual: 33.
Basically, Tex fell short of everything except his peripherals and his home runs. Like Posada to a certain extent, we can see BABIP as a bit of a culprit here, but again, it’s also mostly the player’s fault.
What’s to blame in Tex’s big BABIP drop (career .303) is the infield flyball. Tex’s IFFB% was a crazy high 13.6%, the 14th highest in the American League. Tex also saw his HR/FB% drop to a career low 15% (18.3 average, 17.8 in ’09, 15.9% previous career low in 2006).
Two month long periods–April and September/October–really killed Tex’s season. In April, he had a .559 OPS. In Sept/Oct, it was .694. In May-August, it was .944.
2010 was a year that, despite being good for most players, was sub-standard by Mark Teixeira standards. I’d be willing to be that 2011 will see Tex at his normal career levels.