IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

This is the second in a series comparing the player’s projections to his results. I’m going to try to vary the format each time so this doesn’t get too stale.

1. Jorge Posada

2010 was a down year for Mark Teixeira. His slow start went a little longer than we normally expected and his year wasn’t quite the “back of the baseball card” year we’ve come to expect from Tex, though he did end up with a .367 wOBA and 3.5 fWAR.

BA: Projected: .280 low, .300 high. Actual: .256.
BABIP: Projected: .303 low, .320 high. Actual: .268.
OBP: Projected: .369 low, .395 high. Actual: .365.
IsoD: Projected: .088 low, .095 high. Actual: .099.
SLG: Projected: .505 low, .565 high. Actual: .481.
IsoP: Projected: .225 low, .268 high. Actual: .225.
wOBA: Projected: .381 low, .406 high. Actual: .367.
HR: Projected: 29 low, 36 high. Actual: 33.

Basically, Tex fell short of everything except his peripherals and his home runs. Like Posada to a certain extent, we can see BABIP as a bit of a culprit here, but again, it’s also mostly the player’s fault.

What’s to blame in Tex’s big BABIP drop (career .303) is the infield flyball. Tex’s IFFB% was a crazy high 13.6%, the 14th highest in the American League. Tex also saw his HR/FB% drop to a career low 15% (18.3 average, 17.8 in ’09, 15.9% previous career low in 2006).

Two month long periods–April and September/October–really killed Tex’s season. In April, he had a .559 OPS. In Sept/Oct, it was .694. In May-August, it was .944.

2010 was a year that, despite being good for most players, was sub-standard by Mark Teixeira standards. I’d be willing to be that 2011 will see Tex at his normal career levels.

Leave a Reply

(required)

(required)

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha