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Nov 172010

Joel Sherman still believes the Yankees are the favorite to land Cliff Lee, which as Cliff Corcoran notes, has become increasingly important:

Last Thursday I took a look at the available free agent starting pitchers not named Cliff Lee or Andy Pettitte and boiled it down to four viable alternatives for the Yankees in the event of Lee singing elsewhere and/or Pettitte retiring. Less than a week later, half of those pitchers have already signed with other teams. Worse yet, the two pitchers who signed were the top two in my ranking of the four. Hiroki Kuroda re-signed with the Dodgers for just one year and $12 million. Jake Westbrook re-signed with the Cardinals for two years and $16.5 million with an $8.5 million mutual option for 2013. Both deals are extremely reasonable, making the signings all the more painful for the other teams around the league looking for starting pitching help.

The Plan-B list now looks like this:

1. Jon Garland
2. Jorge De La Rosa

Neither option is interesting to me. Garland would get smacked around in the AL East, and the upper limit for him would be to provide a league average inning eating season. De La Rosa has plenty of talent, but has not actually pieced it all together. His high walk rates, ERA that has never been below 4, and type A status make him a poor fit as well.

Quite frankly, the Yankees need both Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte if they want to improve their rotation via free agency this offseason. Alternatively, they can pursue a trade, but the cost would likely be high for the sort of pitcher that would fill a slot at the top of the rotation. Unless the Yankees are ready to hand two rotation spots to players like Ivan Nova, they need to be proactive in terms of securing both left-handers for the 2011 season.

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog. It is the beginning of a series on infamous historical figures who also had a notable association with baseball.)

When the notorious bandit Willie Sutton was asked why he robbed banks, legend has it that he matter-of-factly replied, “It’s where the money is”. When Cliff Lee eventually signs his mega free agent contract, his motivation will likely be the same, but when it comes to money, baseball players aren’t always as honest as bank robbers. Just ask John Dillinger. He tried his hand in both professions.

Dillinger was gunned down outside the Biograph theatre in Chicago.
On July 22, 1934, the Yankees swept a doubleheader from the White Sox at Comiskey Park. In the first game, Babe Ruth pushed aside father time and an injured leg to knock in four runs and belt homerun number 702, one of his last in pinstripes. Meanwhile, over on the North side of town, the nation’s public enemy number one had decided to take in a movie at Chicago’s Biograph theatre. Unfortunately for Dillinger, as he and two female companions (his girlfriend and Anna Sage, the infamous “lady in red” who betrayed him) watched Clark Gable in Manhattan Melodrama, the FBI was waiting in ambush. Only moments after leaving the theatre, Dillinger was shot at least twice, including once in the chest and once in the back of the head. No longer the most wanted man in America, Dillinger’s lifeless body now laid face down in the street amid a pool of his own blood. Perhaps he should have gone to the baseball game instead?

John Dillinger has taken up baseball as a pastime to while away the hours spent in eluding the law enforcement agents of the nation”. – UPI, June 28, 1934

The idea of Dillinger attending the White Sox vs. Yankees doubleheader isn’t far fetched at all. During his time in Chicago, Dillinger was believed to have attended several baseball games, including a contest between the Cubs and Dodgers at Wrigley Field on June 26, 1933. According to eye-witness Robert Volk, Dillinger took a seat beside him in at the top of the bleachers before departing during the seventh inning stretch.  

 Dillinger depicted in a baseball card created by Dave Stewart, a Vietnam veteran who created several picture card sets to raise money for disabled American veterans.Anyone who had known Dillinger in his youth would likely not have been surprised that he had risked capture to take in a major league game. After all, aside from crime, baseball was perhaps Dillinger’s greatest passion.

At various stages of his life, Dillinger not only played the game, but did so with notable accomplishment. His first known exploits were as a member of a local club in Mooresville, Indiana, the farming town where Dillinger’s family relocated. Part of the motivation for the move was the senior Dillinger’s attempt to get Johnnie, as he was known as a boy, to settle down and turn away from the life of petty crime that had dogged him in Indianapolis. Unfortunately for his father, Dillinger’s success as a second baseman and pitcher for the local team did little to curb his deviant behavior.

Dillinger eventually joined and then deserted the Navy in 1923 before settling in Martinsville, Indiana and eventually getting married on April 12, 1924, just in time for the start of the baseball season. According to Elliott J. Gorn, author of Dillinger’s Wild Ride, the future bank robber was “good enough to pitch and play shortstop on a Martinsville semiprofessional team”. Even if Dillinger wasn’t really pro-material, he was certainly good enough to earn some extra cash playing ball. In fact, he even earned a $25 bonus from a local furniture store for being the best hitter on the Martinsville team. Unfortunately, when the season ended in August, Dillinger had little prospects for a job and no means to replace the income he had been receiving from playing baseball.

 Dillinger (top row, far right) pictured with his teammates on the Martinsville, IN semi-pro baseball team.

Even in his early days as a youth in Indianapolis, Dillinger was predisposed toward the wrong side of the law, but it wasn’t until meeting William Edgar Singleton (a distant relative of his step mother and umpire in the league in which he played) that his life turned down the path that would lead him to his demise outside the Biograph.

Like Dillinger, Singleton was a petty criminal who was in need of some quick cash. According to most accounts, the older Singleton recruited Dillinger to assist in a stick up. The target was Frank Morgan, an elderly grocer who was known to carry the day’s receipts with him after closing up the shop. So, on September 6, the plan was hatched. During the attempted assault, however, Morgan managed to fight off Dillinger, discharging the latter’s gun in the process. Scared away by the shot, Dillinger fled on foot while Singleton sped off alone in the getaway car.

Because of his odd behavior following the botched robbery, suspicion was immediately cast upon Dillinger, who, taking his father’s advice, immediately confessed to the crime with the hope of receiving leniency. There was none forthcoming. Dillinger was sentenced to 10-20 years in the Indiana State Reformatory. Meanwhile, Singleton, now being called the “accomplice”, was convicted of a lesser crime and only served two years.

For the first time, baseball had steered Dillinger wrong. To that point, it had been a stabilizing force in his life, but now, thanks to the influence of Singleton, it proved to be his downfall. While in prison, however, Dillinger didn’t turn away from the game. In his attempt to be a model prisoner and earn an early release, Dillinger participated in several prison activities, but it was baseball that proved to be his greatest solace, especially after his wife served him with a divorce five years into his sentence.

On the day before his first parole hearing, Dillinger played in a prison baseball game in front of Indiana Governor Harry Leslie, one of the men who would preside over his fate the next day. According to John Toland, author of The Dillinger Days, the convict played so well in the game that the governor told an Indianapolis reporter, “That kid ought to be playing major league ball”. The rest of the parole board apparently did not agree. His parole was denied.

 One of Dillinger's many mugshots.

This is the point where most historians believe Dillinger, whose bitterness over the unfairness of his sentence was now compounded by the denial for parole, crossed over the edge. However, despite his shock over the decision, baseball still wasn’t far from his mind. When asked if he had anything to say before returning to prison, Dillinger requested a transfer to the Michigan City State Penitentiary. Confused by the odd preference for a tougher prison, a trustee on the board asked why. “I want to go up there and play baseball. They have a real team,” Dillinger replied, according to Toland’s book. With prodding from Governor Leslie, Dillinger’s request was granted.

Well, baseball season is nearly here but I don’t care to try for the team here although I love to play, if I hadn’t played on the team at the reformatory, I don’t think I would have been sent up here; and I’m sure I would have made a parole there this Winter, so you can see why I am not so enthusiastic about making this team”. – John Dillinger, in a letter home from the Spring of 1930, from The Dillinger Days by John Toland

Life at the state penitentiary wasn’t what Dillinger expected, and he soon came to regret his decision, even going so far as to convince himself the denial of his parole and subsequent transfer were really motivated by the board’s desire to have him play shortstop for Michigan City. When baseball stopped being his favorite prison pastime, it was replaced by the lessons in a criminal lifestyle being offered by fellow inmates like Russell Clark, Harry Pierpont and Homer Van Meter, all of whom would eventually join Dillinger’s notorious gang. Any fanciful notions about playing profession baseball were now replaced by plans for a future of robbing banks, but Dillinger still needed to be released from prison to put his new ambitions into action. The opportunity finally came on May 10, 1933, when he was granted parole.

 Public Enemy #1.Almost immediately upon being released, Dillinger returned to a life a crime, adding bank robbery to his already lengthy rap sheet. Once again, however, he was quickly captured and pled guilty to the charges. While awaiting extradition to the Ohio state penitentiary in Columbus, Dillinger penned a letter to his niece, with whom he had developed a strong bond, and expressed as one of his regrets his inability to drive to Washington and New York to attend the World Series being played by the Senators and Giants.

Dillinger never made it to Columbus. On October 12, his fledgling gang was successful in breaking him out of prison, setting in motion a crime spree that included dozens of bank robberies and nearly as many murders. Unfortunately for Dillinger, however, the escape didn’t happen until five days after the Giants bested the Senators in the World Series.

Who knows…if not for Dillinger’s ill fated decision to rob a grocery store, one of the most notorious criminals in the nation’s history might have been better known for his contributions to the national pastime? Instead of robbing banks, he could have been stealing bases. Instead of knocking over police stations, he could have been knocking balls out of the park. Instead of gunning down law enforcement agents, he could have been throwing out base runners from the shortstop hole. It’s probably a leap to suggest that baseball could have been Dillinger’s salvation, but it does seem to be the only influence that could have steered him away from a life a crime. However, in an ironic twist, baseball actually helped lead him down his ill-fated path…one in which sliding into home was replaced by laying in a pool of blood on the corner of Fullerton Street and Lincoln Avenue.

Brian Cashman finally ended the Joba debate yesterday by calling the starting experiment over. Ben Kabak does a great job summing up what went wrong, and the internet is rife with people explaining how the Yankees should have handled matters. However, it seems that some of those opinions are based on hindsight, as I seemed to remember a lot more support for the actions that were taken by the Yankees as things unfolded. I decided to go back through the RAB archives (TYU is not old enough to cover it all) to try and reconstruct all of the twists and turns of the Joba saga.

2007

The Yankees moved Joba into the bullpen in the summer of ’07, and the initial reaction from Ben was that it was not a great move for Joba’s development. However, after letting the idea ferment for a few days, Ben and the commenters became more comfortable with the idea, as Joba would help the big league club without Joe Torre being allowed to destroy him.

In October, the Yankees reaffirmed their stance on Joba being a starter, but November brought Joba to the bullpen debates and the Johan Santana question. When December rolled around, the Yankee plan to limit Joba’s innings by starting the season with him in the bullpen came into view. This idea was met with concern that he would never end up in the rotation, but Ben wrote that if it was in fact being done to limit his innings, it would not be a terrible move.

2008

Reports then surfaced that Joba would prepare in Spring Training to start but would actually begin the year in the pen. He would then remain in the bullpen until June, after which he would be stretched out and moved to the rotation while some other relievers stepped up and seized the 8th inning. Joe dubbed this plan ideal, and I recall feeling the same way at the time. Joba finished spring training with some quotes that worried the Joba-to-rotation crowd, talking about how much he enjoyed relieving again.
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Yesterday, we heard that the Yankees were checking in on left handed relief pitcher Pedro Feliciano, as well as newly available right fielder The Justin Upton. On some level, both players make sense for the Yankees.

Feliciano is a lefty reliever who, shockingly enough, kills lefties. Justin Upton is my age and has already established himself as a legitimate player.

For a player of Upton’s talent, there is almost always room on the roster. For a pitcher like Feliciano, there’s almost certainly always a job because everyone wants a lefty at some point. However, I don’t see the interest from the Yankees being anything more than cursory at worst and tepid at best.

The Yankees, like all major league teams, are interested in everyone for the right price and will almost always look into any and all players who become available. Both of these guys, though, will likely be passed over by New York.

In the case of Pedro, Boone Logan stands in the way. If not for Logan, I think I’d want the Yankees to go a little harder on Feliciano. However, there isn’t much need for a second lefty in the bullpen. Joe Pawlikowski and Mike Axisa touched on Feliciano during their radio show yesterday and I’ll agree with their points: Feliciano may have racked up a ton of miles; his control isn’t pinpoint (even adjusting for IBBs as Mike noted); he can’t face RHB at all; and, as Joe pointed out, having a lefty for the sake of having a lefty isn’t all that attractive. That’s a pass on Pedro.

Justin Upton is one of my favorite young players in the big leagues. He’s now apparently available. Obviously, I’d want the Yankees to jump on him, right? Well, not so much. The cost it would take to get Upton–the package starts with Jesus Montero for sure–is just way too high. The Yankees could dangle some pieces to appear interested, but I don’t think they’ll do anything more than that, unless the price drops. Trading for Upton also creates a roster crunch, as the Yankees have three starting caliber outfielders already. While Upton and his $4.25MM salary for 2011 would be an incredible value, the current Yankee OF is relatively cheap and still very productive. This is painful, but pass on The Justin as well.

Other notes:

The Yankees are, apparently, interested in utility man Bill Hall. He had two great years in Milwaukee, signed a big contract, then fell flat. He had a resurgence in Boston last year, posting a 111 wRC+, a .342 wOBA, and a .209 IsoP. Hall played 71 games in the outfield as well as five and six at third base and shortstop, respectively. All told, he was a 1.0 fWAR player for the Sox in ’10, acceptable for a bench player. His versatility and pop makes him attractive, but a strikeout rate over 30% and a walk rate under 9% takes the shine off of that apple just a bit. I was concerned, too, with the possibility for a Fenway Boost, but Hall only lost 8 points of wOBA away from home in 2010 (.346 in Boston, .338 away).

The Yankees aren’t sure how long Mariano wants his next contract to be. According to Buster, they expect that he wants a two year deal. I’m not opposed to that, but would prefer it if he went year to year. If I had to bet on it, I’d say Mo will end up with a one year, $15MM deal.

The Yankees have been loosely linked to Jorge De La Rosa, though he appears to prefer the Pirates over other teams. De La Rosa would be an okay back up option if Cliff Lee passes on the Yankees and Andy Pettitte retires.

In non-Yankee news…

I just want to parrot Moshe’s point that adding a playoff team is a bad idea.

Lastly, the Marlins were just all sorts of silly yesterday. First, they traded Dan Uggla for a questionable package. Mike Dunn may still have a little upside left (but that’s being very generous) and Omar Infante is just…eh. He had a nice season in 2010, but it was an empty .321 that he hit. I find it hard to believe that the Marlins couldn’t find anything better than Infante/Dunn for Uggla.

And, secondly, three years and $18MM for John Buck? Really, Florida? Just…wow. That’s got awful idea written all over it.

As I’m sure you know by now, the Yanks and Red Sox were both reported to have inquired on the availability of Diamondbacks star CF Justin Upton. I wonder where the other 28 teams were, if this rumor is at all serious. It may be nothing, all players are available on some level and Kevin Towers has been known to talk a bit when you stick a microphone under his nose. But with the D-Backs in full rebuild mode it’s something you have to at least take a look at. Good buddy Mike Silva of NYBD has some details (via Ken Rosenthal) on what a potential deal might look like:

Reports indicate the asking price for Upton will be an outfielder, a reliever and a starting pitcher. The Yankees have those pieces to spare as they could offer Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain, and a pitcher of the Ivan Nova, Hector Noesi, or Andrew Brackman ilk.

I’m not sure that’s enough, but Mike makes an excellent point when he goes on to say that the Yanks would have an inside track in dealing with Towers. He’s long been friends with Brian Cashman and just finished a brief stint as a consultant for the team, so he’s very familiar with the Yankee system. I’d have to think he would insist on one of the other killer B’s in Betances or Banuelos for a young star like Justin. Of course any of your outfielders are expendable if you acquire a CF, but given that the D-Backs have long had financial issues and they just held a fire sale last year, the young, cheap Gardner sounds like a good fit over more expensive alternatives in Swisher or Granderson.

In a recent post on Fangraphs Dave Cameron broke down his residual value, and even with modest performance expectations it’s still huge:

Good Player, Not A Superstar

2011 – +3.5 WAR, $17.5 million value, $4.25 million salary
2012 – +4.0 WAR, $20.8 million value, $6.75 million salary
2013 – +4.5 WAR, $24.8 million value, $9.75 million salary
2014 – +4.5 WAR, $25.7 million value, $14.25 million salary
2015 – +5.0 WAR, $30.0 million value, $14.5 million salary

Total: +21.5 WAR, $118.7 million value, $49.5 million salary

That puts Upton at about $70 million in surplus value over what his contract will pay him between 2011 and 2015.

Upton Becomes Elite

2011 – +4.5 WAR, $22.5 million value, $4.25 million salary
2012 – +5.0 WAR, $26.0 million value, $6.75 million salary
2013 – +5.5 WAR, $30.25 million value, $9.75 million salary
2014 – +6.0 WAR, $34.25 million value, $14.25 million salary
2015 – +6.5 WAR, $39.0 million value, $14.5 million salary

Total: +27.5 WAR, $152.0 million value, $49.5 million salary

This is where making a deal becomes daunting. In either scenario there’s an enormous amount of value to make up for. Brett Gardner gives you some of it, but the reliever would need to be someone less speculative than Joba, and the starter prospect would have to be a no brainer. Many think that Manny Banuelos will wind up in the bullpen given his small stature, and Betances is considered to be a high-upside/big downside wild card with some injury history. Ivan Nova has a lower ceiling but higher floor, and could be plugged into a MLB rotation from the beginning of next year. Not sure if Towers will want to roll the dice on Dellin or take a safer bet in Nova. As we saw last year with Ian Kennedy, you don’t need a huge upside to compete and succeed in the NL West. I wouldn’t completely rule out Joba as well. Towers may think (as many do) that the Yanks have totally screwed up his development, and may view him as a starter with some big upside. But that makes him something of a throw-in for a deal, where he takes Joba over some AA pitcher as a final piece. The Yanks may want to hold onto him in that scenario.

All totaled I think a possible deal would be Brett Gardner, Dave Robertson, Ivan Nova and another arm that could go either way (bullpen/rotation) with some upside in Stoneburner, Warren or Joba. What do you think? Would you make that deal? Or do you think the Yanks would be better off keeping their depth and standing pat?

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