IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

Apparently baseball’s GM’s support the plan to expand the postseason (via Craig):

The general managers are all meeting in Florida this week and, as we’ve expected, one of the items on the agenda will be making a proposal to Commissioner Selig about expanding the first round of the playoffs with an additional wild card team. The news nugget here is that the GMs USA Today’s Bob Nightengale spoke to all prefer that the first round of the playoffs, which would be between each league’s two wild card teams, either be a one-and-done elimination game or, at most, a best of three scenario.

This plan will have some consequences that I fear may be detrimental to the sport. As Craig notes, a 1 or 3 game series simply adds to the randomness of the postseason, and will often result in the better team going home. Relatedly, this system rewards mediocrity and will allow weak teams into the postseason. A perfect example of the ill effects of this idea can be found in the events at the end of the 2010 season.

If there had been an extra wild-card round in 2010, the AL might have been more exciting down the stretch. The Yankees and Rays likely would have been playing much harder so as to win the East and obtain a first round bye. On the other end, the 89 win Red Sox and 88 victory White Sox would have been locked in a battle for the second Wild card spot. Conversely, some of the drama may have been pulled from the NL race to the finish, as the Giants, Padres, and Braves would have all been guaranteed of at least a wild card berth.

The question that needs to be asked, of course, is whether we want those teams in the postseason. Why should the 95 win Yankees and 89 win Red Sox, with a clear gulf in talent between them, be put on equal footing in a wild card round? By the same token, does anyone really believe that the 2008 Yankees belonged in a postseason series with the 2008 Red Sox? The short nature of the series means that the highly inferior clubs would have a legitimate chance to advance. This plan diminishes the importance of the 162 game schedule, which is the feature that distinguishes baseball from other major sports.

A better plan would focus on tweaking the current system to make the wild card berth significantly less valuable than a division championship. One solution would be to give the team playing the wild card team an extra home game, with the wild card club getting only Game 3 in their building. This would make winning the division a priority, while serving to create a race for the best record in the league (and right to play the wild card team) as well.

Do you like the playoff expansion idea? Do you have an alternative?

With Jesus Montero being given a chance to win the starting catcher’s job in spring training, the development of his defense has become an important issue facing the Yankees going into 2011. A few days ago, Joel Sherman raised a point that many have brought up:

The Yankees, for example, want Montero to win this job. But he will play at 21 and — at best — has a lot of rough defensive edges. Last year it took him half a season as among the youngest players in the International League to gain comfort and shine at Triple-A. So the same growing pains should be expected in the majors, at the least. Will the Yankees tolerate such growing pains when they have championship aspirations?

In terms of offense, Montero will largely be taking plate appearances that belonged to Frankie Cervelli, so I think the club and the fans can handle some growing pains in that area. However, considering that there have been significant doubts about his ability to field his position, a disastrous start behind the plate could make for a major blow to both his confidence and his value. I do think that if the Yankees are able to sign Cliff Lee and bring back Andy Pettitte, they can set up a catching rotation that would help ease Montero into the big leagues.

The element of a catcher’s game that tends to get noticed the most by fans is his ability to handle the running game. A catcher who is being run on constantly will be deemed an awful catcher who is turning singles into doubles by dint of his slow and inaccurate arm. One thing that helps slow down a running game no matter the talent of the receiver is to have a left-handed pitcher on the mound.

Right-handed pitchers faced 133,598 batters in 2010, and allowed 2306 stolen bases against 834 caught stealing (73.4% success rate). That means 3140 attempted steals, or one attempt every 42.5 plate appearances. Conversely, lefties faced 51,927 batters and allowed 653 steals to 295 runners caught (69% success rate). That means 948 attempted steals, or one attempt every 54.8 plate appearances. While these stats do not account for a variety of factors, they do suggest that the idea that lefties help diminish the opponent’s running game is accurate. Runners steal less frequently and at a lower success rate when a left-hander is on the mound.

Taking that fact into account, the Yankees should help ease Montero into the major league catching position by allowing him to catch all of the lefties in the rotation. Hopefully, there will be 3 of them, all of them very good pitchers who limit baserunners to begin with. Cliff Lee has seen an average of 10 baserunners attempt to steal on him per season, while Andy Pettitte is a pickoff artist who averages 18 attempts against. CC Sabathia averages 23, but that number is skewed by 2 poor seasons to starts his career, and he is typically somewhere around 18-20. By comparison, righty pitchers such Tim Lincecum, Carl Pavano, and Jered Weaver had 30+ attempts against them in 2010, and AJ Burnett was on the hill for a whopping 42 attempts this past season.

The Yankees can have Montero catch most of the starts by Sabathia, Lee, and Pettitte, assuming the latter two sign. Jorge Posada would catch Phil Hughes, while Frankie Cervelli can handle AJ Burnett. The idea is not to hide Montero or have him do this for his entire career. Rather, this is an attempt to have Montero adjust to catching at the major league level by working with pitchers that can help the limit the damage that his inexperience and weaknesses might otherwise cause. Once Jesus feels comfortable behind the plate, the team can move to a different arrangement.

What do you think of this idea?

Continuing my series, here’s my season in review for Alex Rodriguez.

It’s worth noting, though, that as of now, FanGraphs has taken down its 2010 projections. Luckily, I had the first round of 2010 ZiPS projections book marked, so I’ll be able to see one projection system and what A-Rod did.

2010 ZiPS Projection:

.281/.382/.526, 30 HR, 93 RBI, 141 OPS+ in 128 G

2010 Actual:

.270/.341/.506, 30 HR, 125 RBI, 123 OPS+ in 137 G

All in all, that’s not a bad season. Hell, a career line like that could get you very far. But, this is Alex Rodriguez we’re talking about; that’s a rather pedestrian season for him. Alex beat his games played projection which was good.

Perhaps the most disappointing part was that Alex had only a .071 IsoD when he was projected for a .101 IsoD (career .084). His walk rate dipped significantly this year, though. That was due to a four percent jump from 2009′s O-Swing% (21.1% in ’09, 25.3% in ’10).

Moving from swing data to contact data, we see a trend of generally weaker contact from Rodriguez in 2010. A-Rod’s line drive percentage plummeted to 13.8% (!!). His mark in 2009 was 20.0 and his career mark is 17.8. This led to a BABIP of just .274 (career .318). If you want to know why Alex didn’t hit for a high average, there’s your answer. Weak contact, low BABIP, “bad” batting average.

His IFFB% was 8.6, which was below his career average of around 10%, so that goes against my weak-contact hypothesis. His fly ball percentage, 40.2, was actually above his career average (40.0), again poking a bit of a hole in my theory. BUT, we need to note his HR/FB%. For his career, Alex has powered 23.1% of his fly balls over the fences and into the people. His previous career low was 19.3% in 2004. This year, it was all the way down at 17.1%

For some reason, Alex Rodriguez was just not getting much power behind his swings. If I were a doctor and/or hitting coach, I’d explain how and why Alex’s hip was sapping his power. But, since I’m just a blogger, I’ll only allow myself to venture a guess that Mr. Rodriguez’s hip was the culprit for his low line drive and HR/FB percentages.

2010 was not horribly kind to Alex. He put up career lows (for full seasons) in just about every category you could think of. In 2011, let’s hope he’s more healthy and can stay in the lineup more often. A healthy A-Rod is a good A-Rod. A good A-Rod is incredibly valuable to the Yankees. I have full faith in him bouncing back. You can only keep that talent down for so long.

Brian Cashman still doesn’t know who his pitching coach will be, but he knows who it won’t be. Anthony McCarron has the story from today’s NY Daily News:

Cashman refused to identify other candidates. But when asked specifically about former Braves and Orioles pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who has said he’s interested in the job, Cashman said, “No, we’re not going to interview Leo. Leo turned down the Yankee job once. He was offered the job before Gator (Ron Guidry) in 2006 and he went to Baltimore.”

Tom Hagen: Mr. Corleone never asks a second favor once he’s refused the first, understood?

In all seriousness, Mazzone’s pitching philosophy doesn’t mesh well with that of the Yankees. He believes in throwing more often, that the more you throw the stronger you get. There’s loads of medical research that contradicts that theory, which is why teams ‘baby’ pitchers the way they do nowadays. The Yanks pay their pitchers tons of money, they’re not about to hire a Pitching Coach that going to upset the way they do business. He may have had someone pushing for him within the organization back then, but it sure sounds like it wasn’t Cashman.

Further, Mazzone was a bit exposed in his stint with the O’s. Some folks thought he was a genius when he was in Atlanta coaching Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine (who all raved about him) but his 06-07 stint with the Orioles produced little in terms of results. They were 10th in the AL in team ERA the year before he arrived (05) and fell to 13th each of his two seasons as Pitching Coach. The human metronome will have to seek employment elsewhere.   

© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha