Way back on February 19th, FanGraphs’s Matt Klaassen wondered if Brett Gardner could do in 2010 what Nyjer Morgan did in 2009. Morgan came out of seemingly no where to post a fWAR of 4.9, fueled mostly by an insanely high 27.6 raw UZR mark.
Morgan’s performance at the plate was nothing to sneeze at either. He hit .307/.369/.388, which led to a .340 wOBA and a 108 wRC+. So, as we’d expect, great defense + above average hitting = high WAR.
Klaassen ended his piece with the following:
Should we expect ~5 WAR from Brett Gardner in 2010? No — that would be insane. But if Nyjer Morgan could do it in 2009, Gardner can in 2010. I suppose the Yankees would even settle for Michael Bourn’s “mere” four win 2009.
To say any of us expected Gardner to be worth 5+ WAR would be lying. But, regardless of our “low” expectations, Gardner ended up posting a 5.4 fWAR. How did he do it and how does it compare to Nyjer Morgan’s 2009?
In the field–Gardner spent most of his time in LF in 2010–Gardner nearly matched Morgan. In 150 games, he posted a raw UZR of 22.0 (21.7 in LF, 0.3 in CF). This is something we see every day with Brett: great defense no matter where he goes on the field. A UZR mark this high will certainly lead to a high WAR. In fact, on fielding alone, Gardner was worth 3.7861 WAR. That’s right–assuming 0 runs offensively, using the FanGraphs system–Gardner’s fielding ALONE nearly made him a four win player. Adding in the offense just bumped him up even more.
Offense is basically a bonus at this point with Gardner. So long as he had hit around league average, he would’ve been incredibly valuable for the Bombers. Brett bested average, though. All in all, Gardner hit .277/.383/.379, .358 wOBA, 123 wRC+ while also stealing 47 bases (Morgan stole 42 in 2009).
So, to answer Klaassen’s question, yes, Brett Gardner was 2010′s Nyjer Morgan, only better. Morgan may have had the slight edge defensively, but Gardner out hit him (and had a handful more PAs) and played great defense himself. This will not likely be the norm for Brett moving forward, but that doesn’t make his 2010 season any less special.
I can see him having a lot of years just like this. He’s patient and has a good eye, has a swing built to take advantage of his speed, and seems to be constantly working to improve his game. oldpep(Quote)
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I hope he stays in the Yankee’s plans for the OF…and If that is the case, I really think you’d get the most value from his range out in CF. Move Granderson to LF- his routes are not the best–i think everyone understands that. Now an opposing argument could be made for BG to stay in left considering his 9 assists. maybe he doesn’t make as many from CF. any thoughts? Mike F(Quote)
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Jason from The Heartland Reply:
October 6th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
I agree that Gardner should be in the everyday lineup this post-season. His speed if he’s on base is reason enough. I would start him batting ninth and, should the top of the order struggle, Gardner could move up. His patience also helps. Plus, Kearns has been horrible down the stretch despite batting pretty decently before that. I’d keep the OF defense as is. Grandy does well in center, and Gardner has an OK arm that is particularly accurate–key from LF. Jason from The Heartland(Quote)
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Brett Gardner is not Nyjer Morgan, because Nyjer Morgan is sort of a psychopath. Hannah(Quote)
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Jason from The Heartland Reply:
October 6th, 2010 at 12:56 pm
Well said, Hannah–unstable at the very least. Jason from The Heartland(Quote)
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