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It's a Metaphor

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:58 pm 3 Responses »
Oct 192010

Here’s how this series feels right now:

–This seal.

–Quint at the end of “Jaws”, sliding towards the shark.

–Barry Pepper’s character Jackson at the end of “Saving Private Ryan” watching the tank gun slowly rise.

–The annoying boss on his car phone in “Independence Day” watching the cars/fire coming at him.

–Princess Leia waiting for the Death Star to fire.

–Freddo on Lake Tahoe saying the Hail Mary.

–Shredder falling into the garbage truck and flailing.

–Frodo fighting that damn giant spider.

–The dude that got his eyes and tongue taken out before being killed in “The Mummy.”

–This.

ALCS Game 4: Rangers at Yankees

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 7:00 pm 13 Responses »
Oct 192010

11 wins to defend that title.

11 wins to once again reach the pinnacle of the baseball world.

Four down, seven to go.

The march to championship #28 continues tonight.

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Cervelli gets the nod

Posted by Stephen R. at 5:02 pm 3 Responses »
Oct 192010

burnett

“Sorry for knocking your mask off with a wild pitch, man”.  Photo courtesy of daylife.com

Earlier today I speculated that the Yankees would stack a lefty-heavy lineup against Tommy “Canada’s Country Gentleman” Hunter, using Swisher in the two-hole and featuring Posada, Berkman, Granderson and Gardner at the bottom of the lineup.  That dream came to an end a few hours ago when it was announced that Cervelli would be catching Burnett tonight and batting in the nine hole.  The new lineup is as follow:

Derek Jeter SS

Curtis Granderson CF

Mark Teixeira 1B

Alex Rodriguez 3B

Robinson Cano 2B

Nick Swisher RF

Lance Berkman DH

Brett Gardner LF

Francisco Cervelli C

There are plenty of reasons to be upset about this.  It takes Posada’s bat out of the lineup until Burnett’s done pitching.  Of course, if Burnett pitches fantastically then the Yankees might not need Posada’s bat, but that’s a  doubtful proposition (and by the same token, if Burnett bombs they’ll get Posada back sooner than ever!  Everyone wins!).  Further, Cervelli’s best offensive attribute is his ability to hit left-handed pitching.  He has an OPS of .846 against lefties and an OPS of .617 against righties.  Hunter is a righty.  He’s not a very good righty, but he is one nonetheless.  More to the point though it’s generally annoying to see a bench bat get a start in the midst of a very crucial game and it’s annoying that Burnett has a personal catcher when he’s been such a very poor pitcher for the lion’s share of the year.

Mentally I had prepared a load of snarky comments about why this is a dumb move, but I don’t think that ultimately helps anyone.  I think this is the wrong move, but there’s a tiny part of me that wants to be OK with it.  AJ Burnett needs all the help he can get at this point.  If he imagines he has chemistry with Francisco Cervelli, if it gives him confidence and enables him to pitch a great game, then more power to him.

But if he bombs I will call down the hammer of Thor upon his crown.

Cubs Hire Mike Quade (Translation: Girardi Stays)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm No Responses »
Oct 192010

MLBTR has the word:

The Cubs signed manager Mike Quade to a two-year deal with a club option for 2013, according to the team. Quade, 53, became Chicago’s interim manager on August 23rd after Lou Piniella retired. He was the team’s third base coach from 2007-10 after managing the Triple-A Iowa Cubs for four seasons.

Iowa’s most recent manager, Ryne Sandberg, was also a finalist for the major league managerial job. Mariners manager Eric Wedge interviewed for the position and the Cubs also appeared interested in Yankees manager Joe Girardi, whose contract expires after the season.

While it is possible that Joe Girardi leaves New York, it was always unlikely, and this news further lengthens the odds. When the rumors of him leaving for the Cubs last cropped up, I gave the following reasons for why I believe he will stay:

1) Money: The most frequent reason for employee movement tends to be that the new city is offering more cash than the old. While the Cubs certainly have the money to offer Joe a competitive contract, I have a hard time believing they can outbid the Yankees for his services. If the Yankees want Joe back, and barring an epic collapse I would assume that they will, their offer is likely to be the largest he receives.

2) Winning: Occasionally, a player or manager will make a move that is not the best financial decision, sacrificing some money for the sake of winning. Once again, the Yankees outrank the Cubs, as the Cubs have shown an inability to translate high payrolls into consistent results. Meanwhile, the Yankees have been contenders for the last 15 seasons, and do not figure to fall back to the pack any time soon.

3) Glory/Legacy: This factor is typically overplayed by fans and the media, with a fine example coming this summer in the Knicks pursuit of LeBron James. One factor Knick fans tried to push was that winning one title in New York would cement LeBron as a New York legend forever. While that may have been true, it did not trump other factors in the eyes of the player. I have heard similar arguments regarding Joe and the Cubs: “If he wins one with the Cubs, he is set for life.” While that may be true, it presupposes that his legacy is important to him. Additionally, winning one in Chicago would be great and would make him a local deity. Winning 4 or 5 in New York would likely get him into the Hall of Fame and give him a larger national profile. If Girardi wants glory, New York is just as likely to provide it as Chicago.

4) Family/Local/Organizational Ties: While Girardi does have strong ties to the Yankee organization, he is an Illinois native who went to school at Northwestern, was drafted by the Cubs, and played in Chicago for 7 seasons in two separate stints. This is the one category where the Cubs beat the Yankees, but I am not certain that it will be enough to trump what the Yankees can offer Joe. Similar concerns were raised about CC Sabathia and the West Coast as well as Mark Teixeira and the Baltimore area, and in both cases the money and winning in New York was the deciding factor. I see no reason for this situation to be any different.

All of these factors continue to ring true. The only one that worked in Chicago’s favor was the family and organizational ties that Joe has with the Cubs, something that does not apply to any other team. There does not seem to be a logical landing spot for Girardi should he choose to leave, and he likely lost a lot of leverage at the negotiating table now that the Cubs have filled their opening. Unless something goes horribly wrong at the negotiating table, Joe Girardi will be managing the Yankees in 2011.

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10 Tommy Hunter facts to warm your heart

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 26 Responses »
Oct 192010

It’s time to forget about Cliff Lee, about RISP, about 13:1 K/BB ratios, about a 2-1 series deficit, about Cliff Lee, about a Game 7 started by Cliff Lee, about the 9th inning bullpen implosion, about the Yankees’ starter this evening and about, of course, Cliff Lee.  Let’s focus on Tommy Hunter.  There are a few things about him that you’re gonna want to know.

1. There were 71 pitchers in the American League in 2010 who threw more than 100 innings.  Of those pitchers, Tommy Hunter had the 9th highest FIP.  This is bad.  FIP is an acronym for Fielding Independent Pitching.  It examines the pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and home runs and tells you how well a pitcher pitched regardless of his fielding.  While there’s legitimate dispute about whether a pitcher can control his home run rate, FIP cuts down on a lot of the noise present in ERA due to fluctuations in BABIP and defense. What I’m trying to tell you is that Tommy Hunter does a poor job at controlling the things he’s supposed to control.

2. Of the 71 AL pitchers with 100 innings in 2010, Tommy Hunter’s strikeout rate is eleventh worst.  He was beat out in the race to the bottom by such luminaries as Nick Blackburn, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Joe Saunders.  Maybe next year, Tommy.

3.  This is a real-life picture of Tommy Hunter when he was pitching for the Rangers’ Double-A affiliate, the Frisco Roughriders:

hunter

Seriously.

4.  Tommy Hunter had the 2nd highest strand rate of the 71 AL pitchers with 100 innings or more.  The first highest was Brian Duensing.  Hunter’s strand rate was 10% higher than the average of 71%. It’s probably safe to bet that he won’t replicate these results in the future.

5.  Tommy Hunter’s nickname is “Canada’s Country Gentleman”.  Oops, wrong Tommy Hunter.  I was thinking of the 73 year old Canadian country music performer, best known for hit singles such as “Bill Jones General Store”, “Born to be a Gypsy” and “Walk with Your Neighbour” (note the Canadian spelling).  There was another Tommy Hunter from North Carolina known for his fiddlin’, but sadly he passed away in 1993.  According to Wikipedia, this Tommy Hunter doesn’t have a cool nickname like Canada’s Country Gentleman.  However, Wikipedia does provide this lovely picture of him:

hunter

Derp.

6.  When I said that Wikipedia doesn’t list a cool nickname for Hunter, I didn’t mean that he doesn’t have one at all.  He has one but Wikipedia, and presumably the world, doesn’t know it yet.  If you check out his Baseball Reference page you find that it’s sponsored by two individuals known as “Joe and Dan”.  Unfortunately, Joe and Dan didn’t link to any website, so I’m left to assume that they’re just two dudes with a love for high FIP pitchers.  Regardless, they say his nickname is “Big Game”.  Big Game Tommy Hunter.  Tommy Big Game Hunter.  Either one just rolls right off the tongue.

7. Tommy Hunter had the 2nd lowest ERA-FIP discrepancy and the third lowest BABIP.  So if you happen to wander into a 7-Eleven  at the same time as Tommy Hunter be sure to ask him to buy you a lotto ticket before his good luck train runs out of fuel, careens off the tracks and explodes and melts in the white hot flames of statistical  regression.

8.  Per Aaron Gleeman, Hunter gave up 21 home runs in 128 innings.  Gleeman notes how bad this is: “Among all the AL pitchers who threw at least 120 innings this season only Javier Vazquez and Brian Bannister had a higher home run rate. And he’ll be facing a Yankees lineup that was one of just three MLB teams to smack 200 or more homers this season.”  Yes, yes he will.

9.  Tommy Hunter is worse against left-handed batters than righties.  In fact, he’s somewhat terrible against lefties.  Maybe it’s his sub-par arsenal, maybe it’s his inexperience, but lefties make Canada’s Country Gentleman sing the blues.  Here’s Gleeman again:

“During his 250-inning career left-handed batters have hit .285 with an .832 OPS against Hunter, compared to .241 with a .678 OPS by right-handed batters. Not surprisingly in two previous starts against the Yankees he’s 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, allowing seven runs on 14 hits in 9.1 innings. He also lasted just four innings against the Rays in Game 4 of the ALDS, taking the loss.”

Lovely.  My best guess for tonight’s lineup is Jeter-Swisher-Teixeira-Rodriguez-Cano-Posada-Berkman-Granderson-Gardner.  That’s Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and seven lefties.  If they’re going to pound a starter in the playoffs, tonight’s the night to do it.

10.  AJ Burnett has a better FIP, xFIP, strikeout rate, ground ball rate, tERA and SIERA than Tommy Hunter.  He also doesn’t have a fluky BABIP or strand rate.  It’s not much, but I’ll take it.

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Examining Derek's Postseason Numbers

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 1 Response »
Oct 192010

Yesterday, I looked at Andy Pettitte’s post season numbers (how great was he last night?) and compared them to his regular season numbers. I then hinted that I’d do the same with Derek Jeter. This doesn’t include his numbers from last night’s game.

We all know the story of Derek Jeter: great contact hitter who takes his fair share of walks and hits for good power, especially for his position. All told, Jeter has a .314/.385/.452/.837, 119 OP+ line. His 162 game average has those rate stats with 17 homers and 298 total bases. Like Pettitte, his playoff numbers have essentially matched that.

His average “drops” to .313 and his OBP “drops” to .381, but his SLG does “rise” to .476. In 143 playoff games, Jeter has hit 20 homers, which would put him on pace for 23 in 162 games. He’s had 277 total bases, which would be 313 in 162 games. Both of those would represent the second highest in Jeter’s career, if we made the post season as just another regular season. Oddly enough, his .857 OPS would be the 7th highest in his career.

The same thing that applies to Pettitte applies to Jeter: his playoff numbers are not outrageously different than his regular season numbers, but it’s remarkable that he’s been able to keep up the same level of consistency in the playoffs.

Where we do see a bit of a drop–albeit in a small sample size–is in the 49 game sample (237 PA) Jeter’s had in his ALCS trips. He’s got only a .771 OPS in that round. His best round has been the ALDS–.955 OPS.

The most hits he’s had in a series was 11 in the ’09 World Series against the Phils.

His worst series was the 2001 ALCS vs. Seattle when he “racked up” a .318 OPS. Ouch.

His best series was the 2006 ALDS vs. Detroit when he had eight hits and a 1.467 OPS.

Yeah, I know this post isn’t much but fluff, but I just needed something to get my mind off the kickassiness of Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee's postseason dominance

Posted by Steve S. at 7:07 am 1 Response »
Oct 192010

Photo courtesy of the New York Post

Year Age Tm Lg Series Opp W L  W-L%  ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP  H  R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2009 30 PHI NL NLDS W COL 1 0 1.000 1.10 2  2  0  1   0  0 16.1 11  4  2  0  3   0 10   0  0  2  62 0.857 6.1  0.0  1.7  5.5  3.33
2009 30 PHI NL NLCS W LAD 1 0 1.000 0.00 1  1  0  0   0  0  8.0  3  0  0  0  0   0 10   0  0  0  26 0.375 3.4  0.0  0.0       11.3
2009 30 PHI NL WS   L NYY 2 0 1.000 2.81 2  2  0  1   0  0 16.0 13  6  5  0  3   0 13   0  0  0  63 1.000 7.3  0.0  1.7  7.3  4.33
2010 31 TEX AL ALDS W TBR 2 0 1.000 1.13 2  2  0  1   0  0 16.0 11  2  2  1  0   0 21   0  0  0  60 0.688 6.2  0.6  0.0       11.8
2010 31 TEX AL ALCS W NYY 1 0 1.000 0.00 1  1  0  0   0  0  8.0  2  0  0  0  1   0 13   0  0  0  27 0.375 2.3  0.0  1.1 14.6 13.00
2 Seasons    (5 Series)   7 0 1.000 1.26 8  8  0  3   0  0 64.1 40 12  9  1  7   0 67   0  0  2 238 0.731 5.6  0.1  1.0  9.4  9.57

Last night, Cliff Lee proved why he is earning a well-deserved reputation as one of the best post season pitchers of this generation. With each start the sample gets bigger, and the rate stats only improve. If he was wearing pinstripes (as he may soon) you would like him facing any pitcher on the remaining teams, including anyone currently on the Yankee staff if the roles were reversed.

To echo Joel Sherman, don’t blame AJ Burnett if the Yanks lose this series. The Rangers have the best pitcher in Lee, an equal bullpen (#2 AL Bullpen ERA/Yanks #3) better overall pitching staff (#4 AL Team ERA/Yanks #7) and a comparable lineup (#3 in Runs Scored/Yanks #1). They’re a very good team, arguably equal or better than the Yankees. An even handed preview of this series would lead you to believe that it was a tossup, but right now the Yanks are making the Rangers look far superior.

From Joel’s column:

“I don’t think we are in trouble,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “We are a good club. We are down two-games-to-one, not three-games-to-none and losing in the bottom of the ninth.”

A five-run eighth inning in the opener is all that stands between the Yankees and actually being down three-games-to-none, so thoroughly are they being outplayed.

Both takes are correct. It feels worse than it is because they’ve played so poorly. A win tonight behind Burnett will change the mood in this town dramatically, especially with expectations as low as they are for AJ and rust being such an issue so far (AJ hasn’t pitched since October 2). But there’s no excuses for being unable to hit Tommy Hunter. A loss will be a reflection on the team as a whole, not just Burnett. Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada showing their age, Tex and Alex doing nothing, their inability to get a well pitched game from CC and Hughes, the decision to use Pettitte against the dominant Lee. Teams that do it with offense tend to stumble in October, as we saw in 2004. It’s the nature of hitting, which tends to come and go. Should the Yanks lose there will be plenty of blame to go around. But there will also be plenty of credit due the Rangers, who still aren’t being given their just due of being every bit as good as the Yanks.

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