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The 2010 ALCS schedule

Posted by Stephen R. at 5:15 pm 1 Response »
Oct 122010

Earlier today, rumors surfaced of a day game in the 2010 ALCS.  When I inquired if there was any firm word on this, reader Jamal Gr pointed me to TBS.com.  Lo and behold, in their day-to-day TV schedule is the 2010 ALCS.  As far as I can tell this has not been confirmed by anyone, or even reported, so we have to assume that this is all subject to change.  For now, though, the 2010 ALCS schedule appears to be as follows (and note this is not first pitch time):

Friday, October 15th, Game 1: 8 pm EST

Saturday, October 16th, Game 2: 4 pm EST

Monday, October 18th, Game 3: 8 pm EST

Tuesday, October 19th, Game 4:  8  pm EST

Wednesday, October 20th, Game 5: 4 pm EST

Friday, October 22nd, Game 6: 8 pm EST

Saturday, October 23rd, Game 7, N/A

This means two day games in the ALCS, one on Saturday and one on Wednesday.  I’ve been a fan of bringing back the day game in the playoffs, especially in the World Series.  I have fond memories as a kid of coming home from school and watching the 1990 World Series, so there’s some nostalgic value in it to me.  However, I also think there may be some branding and marketing value for Major League Baseball.  Baseball is a cash cow, but it is important to capture the imagination of the next generation.  It’s really a long-term question, one difficulty to quantify in terms of revenue dollars and viewership, but my instinct is that an occasional day game or early start time might mean more baseball fans twenty years from now.  Just a hunch.

Yet, here I am, slightly annoyed by the midweek day game.  It’s probably because I’m not a kid any more, I’m an adult with a full time job and a commute.  Other adults with full-time jobs and commutes like me are going to miss at least the first half of the game.  Game 5 could be an elimination game, and so it’s possible that plenty of Yankee fans could miss the team clinching the pennant while stuck in traffic on the BQE.  It’s not the worst thing in the world, I suppose, and I know I’m trying to have my cake and it too.  But I can’t help it.

Regardless, here’s an awesome video from fellow Yankee fan Hannah, also known as FirstHeart42.  She put this thing together herself using iMovie, M.I.A.’s “Paper Planes” and video clips from this year’s New York Yankees, and it’s pretty awesome.  My favorite part is the synchronization of the gunshots and the home runs, and the ring of the cash register with the strikeout.  The video is called “no one on the corner has swagger like us: 2010 New York Yankees”.  Like one of the YouTube commenters said, hopefully she can put together another one in a few weeks celebrating our World Series win.

Update, 5:16 PM EST: Right after I published this multiple beat writers confirmed it.  Start times are 8:07 PM EST and 4:07 PM EST.

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Discussion: Fixing The Umpiring

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 7 Responses »
Oct 122010

Over the last few weeks, calls for replay have reached an all-time high, as epic failures by umpires in playoff games have brought the Umpocalypse upon us. However, while replay should be pursued and will help correct the most egregious mistakes, it does not get at the core of the problem. While umpires may be as good as they have ever been, that is no longer enough. Their mistakes have been exposed by technology that allows us to analyze every decision they make, such that MLB is losing some legitimacy due to their lack of competence. I have a few ideas for helping MLB ameliorate this issue, and hope that you will contibute some solutions of your own in the comments.

1) Train umpires in-house: This is an important problem, and it is one that shocks me each time I think about it. Major League Baseball does not train their own umpires, leaving that task to the umpires themselves. This is an untenable state of affairs, as quality control begins at the training stage, and younger umpires are being trained by the very umpires that we find to be incompetent. How can you expect those umpires to be better than those that they are learning from when they have no external influences involved in their formative training? Obviously, even if MLB takes control of umpire training, existing umpires will need to be involved in the schooling. However, MLB needs to have some oversight to ensure proper quality control.

2) Pay at the minor league level: Major League umpires make somewhere between $100,000 and 350,000, a tidy sum for a job that only requires 6 months of work. However, minor league umpires make a pittance despite intense travel schedules and fairly poor working conditions. Being that there are not that many Major League slots and that umpires only release those jobs upon retirement, it is obvious to see why intelligent candidates might eschew umpiring as a career choice. Why endure tough conditions for little money on the off chance that you make the majors when you can make more doing something else? There is little incentive for the best potential candidates to become umpires, leaving us with second-tier talents to train. Major League Baseball should make an investment in the sport and offer higher salaries to umpires at the minor league level. Enticing better umpire candidates should be a priority for MLB in solving their officiating problem.

3) Rigorous evaluation: As I mentioned in the last section, umpires are entrenched at the Major league level, such that those in the minors have little chance of making it to the show. Furthermore, while umpires are evaluated in the current system, there does not seem to be much in the way of repercussions for a poor evaluation. Both problems can be fixed by instituting a system whereby umpires can be sent down to the minors based on poor evaluations, with umpires who have scored well at AAA taking their places. This would incentivize umpires to perform at an optimal level every night, and show fans and players that umpires are being held accountable for their actions. This would also help clear out some of the dead weight that has accumulated in the umpiring ranks over the years, as all umpires would be subject to the evaluation system.

What do you think about these ideas? How would you address the umpiring problem?

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A recommendation for the ALCS rotation and beyond

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Oct 122010

Brian Cashman’s disclosure that the Yankees would use four starters in the ALCS hardly comes as a surprise.  By eliminating the off-day between Games 4 and 5, MLB made it significantly more difficult for teams to use three starters in the first round as the Yankees did last year.  Of course, it’s still possible.  It would simply mean that Sabathia, Pettitte and Hughes would all go on short rest in their second start, and Sabathia would be on short rest for Game 7, if necessary.  But Cashman simplified things for us when he seemed to announce that Burnett would make a start in the ALCS.  Chad Jennings reports:

This afternoon, Brian Cashman left a little bit of wiggle room on the Yankees using A.J. Burnett as their fourth starter, but he didn’t leave much.

“In this next round, the schedule dictates that we’ll have four starters,” Cashman said.

Does that mean Burnett will be the fourth?

“Yeah, that’s what I believe would be the case,” he said. “We’ll talk about it tomorrow, but yeah.”

A few minutes later in a 25-minute conference call, Cashmen went just a bit further: “We’re going to have our meetings, but if we have to go with a four-man rotation, it will be A.J. Burnett.”

There is a bit of wiggle room in Cashman’s words here.  It’s hard to decipher what “if we have to go with a four-man rotation” means.  The schedule is what it is, and it’s up to Cashman and company to decide whether they want to use a four-man or whether they want to push Sabathia, Pettitte, Hughes and then Sabathia out there on short rest in Games 4 through 7.  It’s probable that Cashman is simply hedging, not wanting to give away more information than necessary.  All indications appear that Burnett will start. So will he start Game 4 or Game 5?

As Steve S. laid out yesterday, having Burnett start Game 5 appears to be the most attractive option.  If Burnett starts Game 5, the rotation could break down like this:

Game 1, Friday 10/15: NYY @ TB/TEX: Sabathia v. James Shields/CJ Wilson

Game 2, Saturday, 10/16: NYY @ TB/TEX: Pettitte v. Matt Garza/Colby Lewis

Game 3, Monday, 10/18: TB/TEX @ NYY: Hughes v. David Price/Cliff Lee

Game 4, Tuesday, 10/19: TB/TEX @ NYY: Sabathia v. Wade Davis/Tommy Hunter

Game 5, Wednesday, 10/20: TB/TEX @ NYY: Burnett v. Shields/Wilson

Game 6, Friday, 10/22: NYY @ TB/TEX: Pettitte v. Garza/Lewis

Game 7, Saturday, 10/23: NYY @ TB/TEX: Sabathia v. Lee/Price

This operates under several assumptions.  For one, it slots in Pettitte ahead of Hughes in the rotation.  The Yankees ignored Hughes’ home/road splits in the ALDS and it worked out rather well.  Further, Pettitte pitched superbly in Game 2, so there’s no reason to suspect the order would change in the ALCS.  This order also assumes that the Rays or Rangers will not turn around and start David Price or Cliff Lee on short rest in Game 2 or in Game 6.  This is a reasonable assumption at least for the Rays, given that they didn’t do it facing elimination in Game 4 of the ALDS.  It appears reasonable for Texas and Cliff Lee, but it’s hard to handicap given that they have yet to face an elimination game with an inferior starter on the mound.

The advantages of starting Sabathia three times and Burnett in Game 5 are many.  The most obvious one is that Sabathia would start three games, including a potential Game 7.  The more CC the better (which is apparently the approach CC takes with his diet!  Zing!  Love you CC).  The second advantage is that it allows the Yankees to throw their best starter against the worst starter of the Rangers or Rays in Game 4, which becomes a big advantage for the Yankees.

The downside to this plan is that pushes Sabathia hard in the ALCS and lines him up to pitch Game 1 on the World Series again on short rest.  This would be his third consecutive short rest start, and if the Yankees were to continue the short rest pattern and have him start Games 1, 4 and 7 in the World Series like he did in the ALCS then CC would end up starting 5 consecutive games on short rest.  It’s unlikely that the Yankees would want him to do this, and it’s also unlikely that both the ALCS and the World Series will go to seven games.  Sabathia does have a decent record on short rest .  In 2008 he started three consecutive times on short rest for the Brewers at the end of the regular season and then started again on short rest in Game 2 of the NLDS.  In those regular season starts he pitched 21.2 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs for an ERA of 0.83, striking out 21 and walking only 4.  In Game 2 of the NLDS though he was less effective, giving up 5 earned runs in only 3.2 innings against the Phillies.  Perhaps the heavy workload caught up to him.  In 2010 he started on short rest twice, in Games 4 of the ALCS and the World Series.  In both games he was strong, throwing a combined 14.2 innings, striking out 11 and walking 5, and allowing 4 earned runs.

Regardless, the Yankees by and large need to manage the ALCS with the ALCS in mind.  Quite obviously, they need to win the ALCS before they can truly worry about the World Series, so they have to manage the ALCS to maximize their potential to advance.  If the ALCS goes to seven games it won’t matter how the rotation lines up for the World Series.  The team will need to win to get in.  As such, the Yankees should pursue this plan.   The only exception, I’d argue, would be if the club was up 3-0 going into the Game 4.  In that situation one could make the case that they should save Sabathia’s arm and start him in Game 5 on regular rest.  But the team will need to make the decision before they know what the series score is after three games, and the best course of action appears to be to have CC start Games 1, 4 and 7 and Burnett start Game 5.

One final thing to note is what happens if the Yankees win the ALCS in less than seven games.  In this optimal and awesome scenario, Sabathia will have started Games 1 and 4, the latter on short rest, and then would start Game 1 of the World Series on a week of rest.  Depending on Burnett’s performance, the team could decide to go with a three man rotation in the World Series, lining up Sabathia for Games 1, 4 and 7, Pettitte for games 2 and 5 and Hughes for Games 3 and 6.  Games 4 through 7 would all be started on short rest, but for Pettitte and Hughes it would be their last start of the season.  With the World Series on the line, one has to imagine the Yankees would at least consider this option.  Hopefully we’ll be talking about it in two weeks.

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Johnny Again?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 14 Responses »
Oct 122010

Yesterday, RAB tweeted that Johnny Damon said he was interested in returning to the Yankees in 2011 and didn’t like the sentiment. Friend of the blog Jamal Granger posited that Damon could be an okay DH/extra OF option for $5-6MM. Moshe agreed with Jamal. Another friend of the blog, Mike Axisa, then asked what role the Damon advocates could see him in. Finally, yours truly chimed in:

@mikeaxisa Not advocating for Damon, but he could platoon DH when Montero isn’t on the team. He DHs vs. RHP, Jorge vs. LHP?

Mike’s response was a good one: the Yankees will probably re-sign Thames, rendering my version of Damon useless.

So, now that we’ve finished with the background narrative, let’s jump into the possibility of Johnny Damon returning to the Bronx.

If Damon does indeed return, there’s no way I see him getting a starting job. Brett Garner put up over 5 fWAR in LF this year, Curtis Granderson is a great defender and good hitter, and Nick Swisher is a three to four win player as well. Johnny Damon just doesn’t fit into the Yankee outfield.

The DH spot is one where I could see him fitting, but even then it’s not guaranteed or permanent. As Mike said, the Yankees could bring back Thames to hit lefties and “play” outfield every so often. I disagree with him there, though. I think the Yankees are smart enough to realize that they won’t get anything like this from Thames again and will just thank him for his service this year and let him walk. That could open up a spot for Damon to come back, but only under a very small set of conditions. First, he’d play most of the time, but not all the time. If he was on the team, and I was managing, I’d have him DH against RHP and sit against LHP while Jorge Posada did the DHing. This is, of course, assuming that Jesus Montero does not break camp with the Yankees.

That’s definitely a possibility, but I think the ultimate plan for Montero next year is to have him split time at C/DH with Jorge Posada so he can get a good balance of rest and experience while still keeping his (possibly/probably/hopefully) impact bat in the lineup. Posada’s a switch hitter and has no platoon split, so it’s not like Johnny would be necessary for a platoon caddy when Posada’s not catching. I’m still assuming, though, Montero’s presence on the roster. Let’s explore what could happen if Damon is there during the beginning of the year and Montero isn’t. Damon would likely be used in the way I said: DH vs. RHP, sitting vs. LHP while Jorge gets half a day off. What happens when Montero gets the call, though?

Damon would have to take a significantly reduced role, basically that of the fourth outfielder. Would he want to do that? Would he justify a $5-6MM contract as Jamal suggested? And, lastly, the point of the article, would I do it?

I’m not sure Johnny would be down for it, considering a dip in pay and a reduced role, but I’d do it, but not at as high a price as Jamal proposed. I would only consider it if Damon was willing to take a true bench salary: $1-3MM at most. What do you guys think?

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