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Oct 112010

I spent much of my “Twitter time” in September defending Joe Girardi’s plan for preparing for the postseason. While the team was clearly struggling as Girardi rested players and held postseason roster auditions, he was skewered in the media for costing the Yankees a division title. I felt at the time that Joe was making the right move, as close observation showed that Joe had most of the players important to a potential Yankees World Series run rested, healthy and effective going into October. Additionally, while losing the division cost the Yankees one home game for the upcoming ALCS, it also ensured that they would face the inferior potential opponent in the ALDS. Once the Yankees swept the Twins, I did not expect any of the media members who had ripped into Girardi every day for a month to do much more than briefly acknowledge that Joe may have known what he was doing.

Surprisingly, I was wrong. Wally Matthews, of all people, penned a column in which he called Girardi the MVP of the ALDS:

Yet no one did more to ensure that the New York Yankees would advance to the second round of playoffs, the final hurdle between them and another World Series, than the only Yankee who didn’t play for one pitch of any of the three games….

For all the head-scratching we self-styled experts have done over some of his in-game moves and his interview-room gyrations of the tumultuous final month of the regular season, it is Girardi who comes out looking like a genius…..

And it was he who, as September became a sticky mess of shoddy play and growing uncertainty, doggedly stuck to his plan of resting his regulars — ultimately at the cost of winning the AL East — in the hopes of having a healthy roster come October.

He was ridiculed for many of these moves, and quite frankly, at times I was one of the ridiculers.

But right is right, fair is fair, and you are what your record says you are. In his fourth season as a manager, Girardi now has one Manager of the Year Award, one World Series ring and, now, a 3-0 record in the 2010 playoffs and the luxury of allowing his team to rest a full five days while waiting for the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays to settle their increasingly nasty argument…

And thanks to Girardi’s careful rotation of off days and DH days for his aging and aching core, it is likely that by the time the ALCS gets under way, Jeter, Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada will be as fresh and rested as it is possible to be after 165 games.

That last paragraph is the reason I credit Girardi for a job well done in both 2009 and 2010. In both seasons, the Yankees have gone into the postseason as healthy as it is possible to be with an aging core of veterans. The lineup does not have single hitter who is exceedingly worn out, and it showed in the Yankees offense against the Twins. The bullpen is fresh as well, as Kerry Wood, Dave Robertson, Boone Logan, and Mariano Rivera look primed to have a strong October. And although the rotation is not perfect, Andy Pettitte pitched well enough to justify his Game 2 start and Phil Hughes looks quite strong despite having surpassed his career high for innings.

Although the Yankees were not winning down the stretch, they were making sure that when the games actually became important, they would be in the best possible position to succeed. It is a credit to Girardi that he had the confidence to execute his plan despite the angry bleatings of some fans and most of the media, and it is a credit to Matthews that he was able to admit that he was wrong and tip his cap to the manager.

With the Rays and Rangers headed for a sure to be thrilling Game 5 in their ALDS series, I wanted to get a vibe for who our readers are rooting for in that series. Both teams would provide a strong matchup for the Yankees, but each has different stengths and weaknesses that could create unique issues for the Yankees. As I see it, these are some very rudimentary reasons that we might want/not want to face each team (Once the opponent is known, Stephen will dig a lot deeper into that team in his multi-part preview).:

Texas: Texas has struggled a bit against lefties this season, and as Steve showed us this morning, it would be feasible for the Yankees to throw lefties in 5 of 7 starts in the series. On the other hand, they do have some righty hitters, particularly Nelson Cruz, who can carry them if their key lefties have been neutralized. The Texas bullpen has looked a bit shaky in recent days, and the Yankees have not found Neftali Feliz impossible to hit. As for the Texas rotation, Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson provide a daunting lefthanded duo, and make me think that TB might be the easier matchup. Finally, from a novelty point of view, it might be fun to see the Yankees play a young team from another division rather than a club that the Yanks played 18 times during the regular season.

TB: Tampa has fairly even platoon splits, but with Evan Longoria a bit banged up, they might be susceptible to lefthanded pitching as well. The back of their bullpen does not scare me, but the front end of Soriano and Benoit are as good as it gets among remaining playoff teams. The TB rotation has some question marks, and with David Price not slated to go until Game 3, the Yankees would likely have a chance to get a quick start in the series against James Shields and Matt Garza (who they usually hit fairly well). Finally, the rivalry with Tampa really took a step forward this season, and an epic ALCS would be a great continuation of a fun regular season race.

I lean very slightly towards prefering Tampa, mostly because of the respective rotations and because I have felt all season that these two clubs were destined for an unforgettable 7 game ALCS. Larry at Yankeeist has already chimed in on the issue, prefering to see Texas win Game 5.

Which team would you prefer to see?

Oct 112010

Even when he’s not pitching, Joba Chamberlain makes news. He didn’t make an appearance in the ALDS vs. the Twins, and some found it at least curious. Steve touched on it yesterday and so did Ben Kabak. For some reason, I enjoy writing about Joba (and people seem to enjoy rooting for him) so I’ll give my thoughts on the possible paths for Joba.

There are three distinct paths I can envision for Mr. Chamberlain. One is the trade path, one is the back to starting path, and the last is the stay the course as a reliever pat. Two of those three–one and two-require a lot of things to happen, so we’ll discuss them as we move forward.

As Ben noted, Chamberlain is about to be arbitration eligible and that means he’s going to get a raise. If Joba is indeed a reliever, the Yankees may determine he is too expensive (as they did with Melky Cabrera) and ship him on out. At the end of the day, I think this is relatively unlikely. Even though Joba closed on a hot streak, he’s perceived to have had a bad season and his value is most certainly at its lowest. The fact that he had this “mediocre” season out of the bullpen also hurts his trade value. Despite his youth, he’s still “just a reliever” and there isn’t a lot to be had for relievers in trades. Even if the team the Yankees are trading with views Joba as a starter in the future, that team has no incentive to admit that and give the Yankees more in a trade.

Though I brought it up, the Joba-as-starter ship has more or less sailed. There is likely no way that Joba will ever start another game for the New York Yankees. It’s sad to say that, but there are only two real ways that Joba starts again in pinstripes: the Yankees don’t sign Cliff Lee OR Andy Pettitte does indeed retire. If either one of those things happens, I think Joba will at least get a shot to be the fifth starter. I’m not going to hold my breath on it, though, and I encourage you to do the same.

And that brings us to the possibility that is most likely: Joba stays with the Yankees as a reliever. It doesn’t seem that the Yankees will get anything great in a trade for Joba at this point and there isn’t much room for him to start. Hell, even if they want him to start mid-season next year, they can’t; Joba’s out of options and can’t be sent down to stretch himself out. As of right now, he’s worth more to the Yankees as a relief pitcher than he is as a trade piece.

As I’m sure most of our readers know, the Rays-Rangers ALDS Game 5 scheduled for Tuesday means that the Yanks will only face either Cliff Lee or David Price twice in the ALCS, and most likely not until Game 3. My money’s still on the Yanks facing the Rangers, based simply on the fact that Lee has been so unbeatable in October the past few seasons. But I wanted to take a quick glance at what some rotation scenarios would look like with the Yanks facing either the Rangers or Rays.

Thankfully, good buddy Mike Silva over at NYBD has already done some of the heavy lifting for me. In a recent post he lined up some various configurations of the Yankee rotation. With neither Yankee opponent able to feature their staff ace and Andy Pettitte healthy,  I’ll  presume the Yanks will have the luxury of not needing to make Pettitte/Hughes go on short rest. So I’ll use Mike’s ‘everyone on full rest but CC’ rotation and see what the match ups could look like. Here goes:

Everyone on full rest but Sabathia Rotation

Oct 15th, Game 1- Sabathia vs CJ Wilson/ James Sheilds
Oct 16th, Game 2- Pettitte vs Colby Lewis/ Matt Garza
Oct 18th, Game 3- Hughes vs Cliff Lee/David Price
Oct 19th, Game 4- Burnett vs Wade Davis / Tommy Hunter
Oct 20th,Game 5- Sabathia vs CJ Wilson/James Sheilds
Oct 22nd, Game 6- Pettitte vs Colby Lewis/Matt Garza
Oct 23rd Game 7- Hughes vs Cliff Lee/David Price

As you can see, the TEX/TAM ALDS series going the limit gives the Yanks a huge edge in the pitching match ups for the 2010 ALCS no matter which team they face. By the time they face Cliff Lee in Game 3, they could very well already have a commanding lead in the series and look to wrap it up in 5 or 6 games. But that Game 7 of Hughes vs Lee really jumps out at me as a bad idea.

Of course, this isn’t the only configuration the Yanks may choose to go with. Here’s the schedule with CC Sabathia going 3 times in the series, twice on short rest. I’ll assume that everyone goes on full rest from the Tampa/Texas perspective.

Sabathia 3x Rotation

Oct 15th, Game 1- Sabathia vs CJ Wilson/ James Sheilds
Oct 16th, Game 2- Pettitte vs Colby Lewis/ Matt Garza
Oct 18th, Game 3- Hughes vs Cliff Lee/David Price
Oct 19th, Game 4- Sabathia vs Wade Davis / Tommy Hunter
Oct 20th,Game 5- Burnett vs CJ Wilson/ James Sheilds
Oct 22nd, Game 6- Pettitte vs Colby Lewis/ Matt Garza
Oct 23rd Game 7- Sabathia vs Cliff Lee/David Price

This is the rotation I suspect Girardi will go with. CC pitches well on 3 days rest, and will be heading into the series on an 9 day layoff. It gives you the match up you want for Game 7 should the series go that far. Hughes only pitches once, but trading one of Phil’s starts for an extra CC start is an easy choice. We all know anything can happen in the playoffs, but the Yanks have the inside track to make it back to the World Series this year.

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