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Dave and Joe, on an Eiland?

Posted by Eric Schultz at 5:15 pm No Responses »
Oct 302010

Forgive the horrific pun in the title, sometimes a guy can’t help himself.  There are a lot of whispers swirling around as to why exactly Dave Eiland ended up losing his job as Yankee pitching coach.  Some argue that the performance of the Yankee pitching staff this season, particularly Javy Vazquez and AJ Burnett, is reason enough for Eiland to not be rehired.  Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York describes a breakdown in the relationship between Girardi and Eiland that occurred after Eiland’s leave of absence in June.  From Marchand’s post:

…a person with knowledge of the relationship between Eiland and Girardi said it went south after Eiland returned from his near-month long personal leave of absence in June.The person said that, upon his return, Eiland felt his opinions were deemphasized. It is unclear if by the end of the season if Eiland and Girardi were working better together.

While the reason for Eiland’s personal leave is still unknown, and will likely remain that way, it appears that Eiland’s absence didn’t sit well with Girardi or the rest of Yankee management.  If there were personal issues between Girardi and Eiland, then perhaps the performance of Vazquez and Burnett was the straw the broke the camel’s back, or else just a pretense for not bringing Eiland back.  I do think Marchand and the media are probably overstating the significance of the Girardi-Eiland fallout, but it is worth discussing anyway.
Did Eiland deserve to lose his job?  My reaction is fairly ambiguous.  It’s hard for me to pin the struggles of Burnett and Vazquez on him when both pitchers have not exactly been models of consistency throughout their careers.  Burnett has been erratic throughout his entire career, and Vazquez lost 3 mph off his fastball and also struggled in his last go-round with the Yankees.  Phil Hughes made significant progress as a starter in the first half of the season, but struggled somewhat in the 2nd half of the season (his strikeout rate dropped significantly and his walk rate increased).  Can we blame Eiland for Hughes 2nd-half regression, or simply chalk it up to a normal explanation of wearing down and the league catching up to a young pitcher?

I can’t necessarily blame Eiland for these or any other problems, but on the other hand, did he do anything great to be worthy remaining as Yankee pitching coach?  He got the job largely on the strength of his work with “Generation Trey” in the minors, but maybe he got too much credit for the dominating performances of some very talented pitching prospects.  It’s hard for me to evaluate the quality of the work he did behind the scenes with Yankee pitchers, so it seems that we may never know the true reason for Eiland’s non-hiring.

What can the Eiland situation tell us about the Yankees’ future pitching coach?  Most importantly, it will have to be someone with whom Joe Girardi can work and agree.  This would make me wonder if the Yankees would consider Rick Kranitz, the Marlins’ pitching coach when Girardi managed the team.  Kranitz is currently Baltimore’s pitching coach, and I’m not sure if he is still under contract.  I also suspect that the Yankees may want an established major league pitching coach after their dissatisfaction with Eiland.  This may rule out current AAA pitching coach Scott Aldred, who is well-respected in the organization and from the outside seems like a qualified candidate.  Who do you think will be/should be considered?

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Looking for a Lefty-FA edition

Posted by Steve S. at 8:34 am 5 Responses »
Oct 302010

Brian Cashman said yesterday that the team has two main priorities this off season, a starter and a lefty for the bullpen. Neither comes as any surprise, the Yanks have pined for Cliff Lee for years and on the heels of the news of Damaso Marte’s scheduled shoulder surgery there was going to be an opening in the bullpen. Chad Jennings of LoHud has the details:

“If I can find a left-handed reliever who can join Boone Logan, I think that will make our choices out of the pen better for our manager,” the GM said. “It’s easy to talk about it. It’s harder to find it. Those are the obvious things that stand out for me: Continue to improve your starting rotation, find a left-handed reliever and then get after it.”

There’s three paths he can take with this. Free agency, trade, or internal options. Given that Cashman said he’s looking to “find” a lefty, let’s put aside internal options for the moment. Today we’ll look at this year’s free agent crop and tomorrow we’ll peruse the arbitration eligibles to look for trade candidates.  Here’s the list of 2011 free agents, courtesy of MLBTR:

Left-handed relievers
Joe Beimel (34)
Bruce Chen (34)
Randy Choate (35) – Type B
Scott Downs (35) – Type A
Pedro Feliciano (34) – Type B
Mark Hendrickson (37) – $1.2MM club option with a $200K buyout
Ron Mahay (40)
Will Ohman (32)
Dennys Reyes (34)
Arthur Rhodes (41) – Type A
J.C. Romero (35)
Bobby Seay (33)
Scott Schoeneweis (37)
Hisanori Takahashi (36)
Taylor Tankersley (28)

Lets discard a few names right away. Taylor Tankersley, Scott Schoeneweis, Randy Choate and Bruce Chen have as much chance becoming Yankees next year as I do, which is zero. The fact that 41 year old Arthur Rhodes is a Type A shows the flaws in the Elias ranking system, despite his good season. Expect him to re-sign with the Reds or have a Juan Cruz-like journey to finding a new home. Another note, Hisanori Takahashi isn’t a free agent yet, he and the Mets agreed to extend his 10/31 deadline. He switched agents, and the extended deadline signals that both sides have expressed an interest in working out a deal. Had a nice first season in the bigs for the Mets and provided them some versatility as a starter and reliever.

On to the lesser names on the list. Joe Beimel doesn’t miss many bats (4.2 SO/9)  Pedro Feliciano has had a very disconcerting workload under old school regime of Omar Minaya (86, 88, 92 Games past 3 seasons) Denys Reyes walks too many (5.0/9) and doesn’t strike out enough (5.5/9) and JC Romero has no idea where the ball is going (7.1 BB/9). They’re all out.

Onto the more attractive candidates. Will Ohman performed nicely for the Marlins after being traded from the O’s, but it was too small a sample to draw anything from. He is what his career 109 ERA+ suggests he is, a nice league average pitcher. Bobby Seay has good numbers, giving up less than a hit (8.7) per inning pitched and walking a reasonable amount (3.7/9). His strikeouts were down (6.9/9) a bit from last year (9.3/9) but in line with his career averages (7.7/9) Another solid, if uninspiring option.

The one who jumps off the list to me is Scott Downs. He’s been healthy, pitching 48 innings or more every year since 2006. He’s tough to hit, posting Hits per 9 of 7.3 or less in 3 of the past 4 seasons. His walk rates have only improved of late, declining to 2.5/9 in 2009 and 2.1/9 last year from his already good career average of 3.3/9 IP. He’s not an extreme strikeout pitcher but in his past 4 seasons he’s posted SO/9 rates of 8.8, 7.3, 8.3, and 7.0 last year. He’s done all of this pitching in the AL East, so there’s no surprises there. As a pitcher, there’s nothing not to like. The only question will be does Brian Cashman want to surrender Type-A draft pick compensation for a Lefty reliever, to a team in his division, no less. If the Yanks were to land Cliff Lee, Downs would be their second Type-A free agent this year. As you may recall in 2009, that means he would cost their 2nd rounder (61# overall) and a supplemental pick. The Yankee farm system is pretty stocked right now with pitching at the upper levels, so you could argue that they could afford it. But will they? Cash has been pretty steadfast about not giving up draft picks for relievers, but Downs would be such a good fit its possible they make an exception.

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Letting Go Of Wood

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 4 Responses »
Oct 292010

Cliff Corcoran of the excellent Pinstriped Bible checks in on Kerry Wood:

Kerry Wood posted a 1.344 WXRL and 0.69 ERA with the Yankees, but he also walked 18 men in 26 innings. He was lucky. Opponents hit .236 on balls in play against Wood after he came over from Cleveland, and just 3.1 percent of his fly balls left the ballpark, down from a career rate of 8.6 percent. Meanwhile, he gave up fly balls and line drives more often than he had previously in his career.

Wood’s high strikeout rates allow him to get away with more walks more than a less powerful pitcher could, but walking 5.7 men per nine innings, as Wood did in 2010, is playing with fire, and his home run rate is sure to shoot back up next year, particularly if he spends half of his home games pitching in the new Yankee Stadium. Wood will be 34 in June and has a extensive injury history, which begs an unwelcome comparison to Marte, who turned 34 soon after signing his current contract.

Cliff goes on to note that there are better and likely cheaper options available on the free agent market, and that the Yankees could fill bullpen roles internally as well. I am partial to Scott Downs, a lefty who can actually get righthanders out, which would give Girardi more options in the late innings. However, Downs is a Type-A free agent, which means that signing him would cost the Yankees a draft pick. This is the one advantage that Wood has over the free agent options, as he would not cost the Yankees picks should they resign him.

Nevertheless, I would pass on Kerry. I think Wood is likely to disappoint the team that inks him to a pricey two or three year deal this offseason. He has been worth more than .4 wins once since 2004, and his inability to stay healthy combined with the general volatility of relievers make him a poor investment. He simply puts too many runners on base to be trusted regularly in important spots. During the regular season, you do not want to be forced to use your closer to bail him out in the 8th inning of games in which he does not have his control. Someone will sign him to close, and the lack of a safety net will prove problematic when he start to walk the ballpark. The Yankees got an excellent few months out of Wood, and they should be content with that and walk away.

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No Need For An Upgrade Like Cliff Lee

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 29 Responses »
Oct 292010

So far, I’ve given my argument against signing Cliff Lee, and laid out some alternatives (most of which don’t look pretty good), and stated my belief that the Yankees should stand pat and fill the position internally. Assuming Andy Pettitte re-signs, the team will go into 2011 with the same top-four as they did last year. How much of a problem is this?

The 2o10 Yankees won 95 games, giving them the second-best record in the American League by just 1 game. They scored 859 runs (leading the league by a good margin) and allowed 693 (6th-best in the league) for a Pythagorean record of 97-65, the best in either league. In the playoffs, they swept the ALDS against the Minnesota Twins, and lost in 6 games against the Texas Rangers in the ALCS.

If the 2011 Yankees replicate the performance of the 2010 Yankees, they will almost certainly make the playoffs. Once there, you roll the dice. Few Yankees pitched or hit well in the ALCS, and the Texas Rangers put together some outstanding performances. That’s how baseball works: any team can win on any day. Playoff victories are almost all about luck. Cliff Lee isn’t a magic baseball fairy – look at what the light-hitting Giants did to him. Its still about luck.

The Yankees would need an upgrade if they think that the 2011 Yankees will be significantly worse than the 2010 Yankees. However, looking at the team’s performance last season, I think that its fair to argue that the team as currently constituted will be better. The Yankee offense led the league without too many players having career years. Robinson Cano had a great year, but his only real improvement over past great years was new plate discipline. There’s no reason to believe he can’t bring that discipline through his prime. Nick Swisher had what looked like a career year, but in reality he improved only mildly over his career norms by trading on base percentage for slugging percentage. Brett Gardner could very easily play much worse next season, and probably isn’t an odds-on favorite to post a .383 OBP again, but his defensive value should remain. And Marcus Thames’ production on the bench probably won’t be replicated.

That’s it. Everyone else actually had a down year – a testament to how strong the team’s hitting core is. The team lost Nick Johnson, their primary DH, early in the season. Curtis Granderson missed time and had a down year. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter had horrendous down years. Francisco Cervelli played almost as much as Jorge Posada. Mark Teixeira had a season to forget. After Thames, contributions from the Yankee bench were anemic, with Russo, Pena, Winn, Curtis, Kearns, and Miranda all getting playing time but playing terribly.

Regressions go both ways. Players that were better than average tend to regress to the mean. But players that were worse than average tend to get better. Most of the Yankee hitters are odds-on favorites to play better than they did last year. The offense should be even better. Especially if the Yankees use some of their extra cash (they aren’t really freeing much up this offseason) to do a better job on the bench.

There is good news on the pitching side too. They balanced out terrible performances by A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez with great years by Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabathia, plus a strong introduction to starting from Phil Hughes. We all saw how good Hughes was at the beginning of the season, and can probably expect him to improve in his second MLB season as a starting pitcher. Hughes probably got tired as the season went on, which is understandable. He’s your #2-3 pitcher with Andy Pettitte. Pettitte won’t be nearly as good as he was last year, but he’s still a pretty good pitcher and a great guy for the playoffs. Any regression by Pettitte should be made up from the poor performance of his replacement pitchers. And regressions work this way with A.J. Burnett: we may not like him, but he’s usually reasonable effective as a pitcher. This year, he everything took a dive. It may be age-related decline, but even so he should rebound a bit.

So, if we can upgrade from Javy Vazquez, we probably will upgrade our pitching staff. I don’t see any reason why the best of Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Lance Pendleton, and Joba Chamberlain (who was already a lot better than Vazquez just a year ago. and actually had a pretty good FIP this season and his best K/BB since he was a rookie) and whomever else comes along can’t beat a 5.37 ERA. By mid-season, players like Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi, and even Dellin Betances or Manuel Banuelos will be ready to take the ball.

Signing Cliff Lee would add another long term commitment on top of Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett (and soon, Robinson Cano) deep into the next decade. Long term contracts, especially for aging players, are very risky. Lee would be a win-now move at the expense of win-later. The Yankees are already set up to win now. For a marginally better chance at winning now, the Yankees could jeopardize their chance to win later. Don’t sign Cliff Lee.

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Questions for the Hot Stove and Beyond

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 2 Responses »
Oct 292010

The official start of the Hot Stove season isn’t until after the World Series, but friends, it is never too early to start thinking about it. Steve hit on the top ten things the Yankees must do in the offseason earlier, so I won’t rehash something like that. Instead, I’m going to offer up a few brief questions, give a few brief answers, and leave them for you all to talk amongst yourselves.

1. Brandon Laird is coming off of a career year and has a 1.002 OPS in the Arizona Fall League thus far. The way I see it, there isn’t much room for Laird on the big club in the near future. His trade value is never going to be higher than it is now, unless he hits well at AAA Scranton to start the 2011 season. I don’t know if that’s worth risking. The Yankees should look to shop Laird now, likely as part of a package, because I think he’ll add more value to the team going forward as a trade piece than he will with his own play.

2. What’s going to happen with the OF bench situation in 2011? I’m assuming the Yankees will employ the same outfield they did for most of 2010–Gardner, Granderson, Swisher from LF-RF. It’s the extra outfielders who may look different. Austin Kearns will most certainly be gone. Marcus Thames may be back, but I honestly hope not. It’s nothing personal, Marcus…only business. He did great job in 2010 but the chances of 2010 being repeated are really, really, REALLY small. If the Yankees are smart–and they usually are–they’ll let Thames walk. The only problem is that there aren’t many good free agent options and the in house options–Colin Curtis and possibly Brandon Laird–are uninspiring. New York may have a lot of 40 man spots open, though, so they could snatch someone up from the Rule V draft like they did last year with Chad Huffman (even though that didn’t go well).

3. Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood, and Javier Vazquez are all type B free agents so there is absolutely no point in offering any of them arbitration. Granted, the chances of that wouldn’t be high even if all three were type A free agents. Lance Berkman will most certainly be gone, as will Javier Vazquez. Kerry Wood may be back, but I’m not going to hold my breath.

I’m very torn on Kerry Wood. He pitched well for the Yankees, obviously, but he’s always at risk for injury and chances are someone is going to offer him closer money. If I were going to offer Wood a contract, though, it would probably be pretty modest. His $11MM option was just denied and at most, I think I’d offer Wood a one year deal worth $5-6 million. Not long ago, I was okay with splitting the option over two years, but a two year deal for Kerry Wood isn’t a great idea. Would it be nice to have Wood as the set up guy in 2011? Yeah, sure. But is it necessary? No, I don’t think so.

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Girardi's hits and misses

Posted by Steve S. at 7:31 am 8 Responses »
Oct 292010

Chad Jennings over at LoHud recaps some of the decisions that did and didn’t work for the Yankee manager this season. I’ll go through them individually, with comments of my own. Here goes:

Three decisions that worked
Taking the fifth: Robinson Cano and Phil Hughes

Agree. It was time to challenge him entering his age 27 season and he didn’t disappoint. We all knew the tools were there with Robbie and his profile is that of a perfect #5 hitter given how much he swings the bat and his contact rates. The Yanks have wanted him there for years, and 2010 was when he finally put it all together. On Hughes, his strong 2009 out of the bullpen and upside as a starter made him an easy call as well, unless you had your mind made up about ‘Joba the Starter’ going into 2010 spring training.

Trusting Tex: In the No. 3 spot, Mark Teixeira rebounded

Agree, but it’s not like he was going to bench a player who signed a massive 8 year contract just a season earlier. We all know he’s a notorious slow starter, and this is something the manager and fans will have to live with.

Resting Rodriguez: Days off kept Alex Rodriguez fresh

Again, easy call. The Yanks aren’t about winning games in June, they’re about October. If anything, in retrospect he may wish he rested Alex more given his late season injury and lackluster 2010 playoffs.

Also give him credit for: Recognizing Javier Vazquez couldn’t start… Sticking with Marcus Thames through a brutal spring training… Pushing the right buttons with minor league call-ups in the middle of the season.

Thames I’ll give you, though it was similar to Tex in that the Yanks didn’t have a ton of other options for power off the bench against Lefties. Vazquez’ stuff was way down all year and he pitched himself out of the Yankee rotation, twice. I can’t give Joe too much credit for recognizing the obvious.

Three decisions that didn’t work
Hoping for better: Keeping Derek Jeter in the leadoff spot

Given Derek’s 15 year track record and Brett Gardner’s tenuous status on the team at the time, this was another easy call. You could argue that Derek should have been dropped down around mid season, but Jeter has been so good for so long you almost have to give him a full season to succeed or fail. As Chad said it didn’t work out, but Derek has meant so much to the team over the years that you can’t mess around with him too much, especially as a manager on an expiring contract. Had he fooled around with him, we’d all be blaming Joe for the down year.

Joba rules: Or maybe he doesn’t

The Yankee brass had a lot riding on Joba, with how he’s been handled and all the debate he’s stirred in his time with the team. In 09 he was given every chance to succeed as a starter, in 2010 he was given a full shot as a reliever. Neither worked out, so now the blame falls squarely on him. I’m in the camp that thinks if there’s a deal out there to be made, the Yanks won’t let him stand in the way of acquiring a needed piece.

Bad platoon: Austin Kearns kept getting at-bats

I didn’t get this one either, but between Kearns and Gaudin most of September seemed to be spent auditioning for October. Neither worked out.

Also worth questioning: Using Chad Gaudin ahead of playoff pitcher Sergio Mitre down the stretch… Treating A.J. Burnett considerably differently than Vazquez, despite similar seasons… Keeping Francisco Cervelli partnered with Burnett, despite poor results.

There are 4 years and 67 million reasons why the two pitchers were treated differently. As to pairing Burnett with Cervelli, I think the manager believes Posada is too old and slow to handle Burnett’s hard breaking pitches and overall wildness when he’s off his game. As a former Catcher, I’ll take his word for it.

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Cliff Lee Alternatives

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 59 Responses »
Oct 282010

In response to the early discussion, I should probably say: I support option #1, which is essentially standing pat. Tomorrow I’ll argue that the Yankees don’t need an upgrade.

Yesterday, we had some really vibrant discussion on whether or not the Yankees should sign Cliff Lee. I think that an important missing piece of my post was alternatives to signing him. To be clear, I don’t support signing him to a long term contract (more than 3-4 years) no matter the alternatives, but the alternatives are still important and interesting to look at.

If we assume that Andy Pettitte continues his career, the Yankees will have a rotation of Sabathia-Hughes-Pettitte-Burnett-X. The X has to be filled by someone. Here are five options that I think they should consider:

1. Fill the position internally

The Yankees have a lot of starting pitchers close to the major leagues. This option, my preferred one, is to let them battle it out for a spot in the starting rotation. The favorite would probably be Ivan Nova, who would spend Spring Training trying to impress Joe Girardi more than Joba Chamberlain, David Phelps, Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi, Dustin Moseley, Lance Pendleton, and Adam Warren. The Yankees have a pretty broad group to choose from, which makes this option attractive. If their first choice doesn’t work out, the others will be waiting at Triple-A.

Its not hard to imagine any one member of this group proving an upgrade from Javy Vazquez’s 5.32 ERA. Furthermore, players like Noesi, Warren, Brackman, and even Dellin Betances, will look much more attractive in the middle of the season. So, if David Phelps can’t hack it around June 1st, the Yankees should have a Killer B or two to choose from.

One downside is that such a move would decrease the team’s starting pitcher depth. The next-best guy like Nova would normally be the immediate replacement for the first starting pitcher to get injured. But I don’t think this is much of a problem given how many pitchers the Yankees can call upon. The bigger problem is that even if a prospect pitches well, they don’t offer a huge upgrade for the rotation like Cliff Lee does. At another time (maybe tomorrow) we can debate how much of a need exists for that big upgrade, but it would be nice nonetheless.

2. Trade for Zach Greinke

You all know Zach Greinke. He won the AL Cy Young in 2009. He’s going to be 27 years old. The Royals are likely to shop him, given that their time frame doesn’t match up before his free agency. Greinke is one of the few available players out there who could potentially replicate Lee’s production. His 205 ERA+ last season was Pedro-like. While Greinke had a down year in 2010 (100 ERA+ in 220 innings), he should be a pretty good bet to play well.

The downside, of course, is that they team would have to trade for him. Jesus Montero or some of the Killer B’s would likely go the Royals’ way in return. I’m not crazy about losing Montero, but I would consider doing the trade if other prospects formed their baseline, or the Yankees worked out some creative deal involving Brett Gardner and David DeJesus. I think that its possible. Still, a steep price would push the Yankees other places. Furthermore, Greinke’s well-documented personal issues could be a problem in the New York media market.

3. Sign another free agent

Other free agents on the market include Jake Westbrook, Ted Lilly, and Bronson Arroyo. All had very effective seasons in the National League (Westbrook was traded mid-season). All would be much cheaper than Lee, and not require a commitment of more than 2-3 years. Lilly and Arroyo are Type-A free agents, so the team would have to surrender a 1st round draft pick to sign them.

Of these, Westbrook really is my favorite. He has more AL experience, is a ground-ball machine, doesn’t require the forfeiture of a draft pick, and should be the cheapest of the three. The Yankees don’t need Westbrook to be an ace. They just need someone to eat some innings and keep them in games. He would represent a significant upgrade over Javy Vazquez’s performance. How does 2 years, 20 million sound?

Doh. Thanks T.O. I was working off an old list.

4. Trade for a non-ace.

I’m sure that everyone here could come up with their own trade scenarios. Trade for Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano and Brett Myers represent risky potential upgrades. I’m more of the mind for Paul Malholm, John Lannan, Jeremy Guthrie, or even Joe Blanton. Someone to eat innings and keep the team in games, like the above free agent targets. They wouldn’t cost Jesus Montero or Brett Gardner, but would represent a modest upgrade over Javier Vazquez.

I think that this is an important option. There are plenty of MLB pitchers out there that teams outside of contention would rather not pay, and wouldn’t mind getting something in return for. The Yankees could aim for someone whom they wouldn’t mind demoting to the bullpen if a better option comes along. They would preserve their starting pitcher depth, and possibly find a decent little pitcher.

5. Re-sign Javy Vazquez.

Just kidding. What do you all think? What other players would you target in trades/signings?

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Season in Review: Jorge Posada

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 2 Responses »
Oct 282010

This is the first in a series of posts I’ll do about players and how they fared, compared to their various projections. Luckily, FanGraphs stores projections so it will be an easy comparison to make. Let’s start at one of the most important positions on the field: behind the plate.

Jorge Posada had a vaguely healthy year, playing in 120 games. He came up to the plate 451 times, the most for him since 2007 (589). When he did play, Jorge did hit pretty well. The average wasn’t pretty at .248, but his OBP was good at .357 (13.1% walk rate) he hit for good power, a .454 SLG and a .206 IsoP. His wRC+ was 122, just off his career mark of 127. He wOBA’d .357. So how did Jorge do against his projections?

Batting Average: Jorge fell short of all five projections–Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS, and Fans in terms of batting average. His high projection was .281 by Marcel and his low projection was .256 by ZiPS. Before moving on to the other rate stats, it’s worth noting that none of the five systems expected Jorge to play as much as he did. The highest PA projection for him was the fans at 426. That Jorge was able to out play those projections is pleasing.

On Base Percentage: Jorge beat CHONE (.349) and ZiPS (.336) in terms of OBP and fell short of the others, which were .361, .363, and .372. Jorge’s IsoD of .109, however, beat each system’s projection which means he really did out perform his projections.

Slugging Percentage/IsoP: Posada beat ZiPS (.430) and CHONE (.453) while falling short of the rest. There is, though, a caveat: Jorge’s strong .206 IsoP beat each projection system by at least 11 points.

wOBA: This is where the systems really nailed it with Posada. All the projections were in the .340-.365 range and Posada was just about in the middle of that–more towards the high end–with a .357 wOBA. As for the ones Jorge fell short of (this goes for BA as well), we could easily attribute that to some batted ball differences between the projections and what actually happened.

Jorge’s BABIP was just .287 this year (.318 career). No projection system had him lower than .307 for his 2010 BABIP. Despite a drop in IFFB% which would indicate better contact, Posada’s line drive rate fell to 18.5% (21.3 in ’09, 20.2 career), so some of the poor BABIP could be blamed on Posada and a bit of weak contact. If he was able to reach his projected BABIP numbers, he could’ve met/exceeded more of his projections.

Jorge Posada stayed more healthy in 2010 than we thought he would, after playing in just 162 games in ’08 and ’09 combined. He may not have met everything the five systems set out for him, but he was never wildly below them (or above them). I’m not exactly doing this all justice because I’m not taking into account standard deviations, but I’d be willing to say with (some) confidence that Posada’s numbers are not many standard deviations away from the average projection. I’m very happy with Posada’s offensive year. Any time you can get an IsoD over .100 and and IsoP over .200 from a catcher, your offense is in pretty good shape.

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Minor Surgery For CC

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm No Responses »
Oct 272010

Joel Sherman and George King had the scoop:

CC Sabathia was diagnosed with a minor meniscus tear of the right knee that will require surgery, The Post has learned.

Sabathia was diagnosed yesterday at Columbia Presbyterian Hospital and is expected to undergo surgery in the coming days. The Yankees do not consider the procedure significant and expect Sabathia to recover within three weeks and be fully ready for spring training.

Nevertheless, the worry with signing Sabathia to the largest-ever pitching contract always had been the two Ws: weight and workload. He has carried a lot of both, and, thus, it is hard to look at any surgery — especially on a joint — as minor.

The Yankees already are planning a full-court press for free agent Cliff Lee, and any concerns about their ace, Sabathia, only would make the Yankees more motivated to solidify the top of the rotation.

While the writers do make a valid point about needing help at the top of the rotation, one could argue that injuries like this can help make a case against Cliff Lee. As EJ noted earlier, there are risk inherent to signing older players, one of which is an increased likelihood of injury. Even a minor injury to a pitcher who is considered a “horse” might drive home the idea that handing a large contract to a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 may not be the most prudent idea. I still prefer Lee and would not shy away from handing him a big deal, but I am sure that health and age are two considerations that Brian Cashman will weigh when putting together an offer for the star lefty.

As for Sabathia, I am not a doctor and therefore cannot comment as to whether we should be concerned about his health going forward. I will say that many have told me that this is an outpatient procedure and should not be indicative of an underlying problem that could cause a recurrence. Hopefully this surgery becomes nothing more than a footnote to an otherwise healthy Yankee career for CC.

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Girardi-Yanks Closing In On Deal

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:11 pm 2 Responses »
Oct 272010

Joel Sherman has the scoop on the widely expected move:

The Yankees and Joe Girardi are closing in on a three-year contract that will pay him somewhere between $9 million and $10 million, The Post has learned.

Girardi would receive a bump from a contract that expires Saturday that was paying him $7.5 million over three years. The raise would make Girardi the fifth- or sixth-highest paid manager in the major leagues.

The sides believe the deal could be finalized Wednesday or Thursday.

When the deal is complete, the Yankees will move on to more complicated issues involving free agency for Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, and formulating a plan to chase the diamond of the free-agent class, Cliff Lee.

Despite all of the handwringing and doubts about Girardi’s return, this issue was handled quickly and without any drama. Hopefully the Derek Jeter negotiations have a similar feel and end with a similarly fair contract.

In exclusive BREAKING news, 3 sources tell me that Incarcerated Bob is full of it.

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