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Looking at Hector Noesi

Posted by EJ Fagan at 5:00 pm 12 Responses »
Sep 222010

Hector Noesi, Right-handed Starting Pitcher

Ranked 4th best Yankee Prospect

Year Age Tm Lev ERA G GS GF IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2006 19 Yankees Rk 1.29 5 0 2 7.0 5 1 1 0 1 11 0 0.857 6.4 0.0 1.3 14.1 11.00
2007 20 Charleston A 4.50 5 5 0 20.0 25 10 10 2 8 11 0 1.650 11.2 0.9 3.6 5.0 1.38
2008 21 2 Teams Rk-A- 3.33 14 7 1 48.2 43 23 18 7 10 55 2 1.089 8.0 1.3 1.8 10.2 5.50
2008 21 Yankees Rk 3.65 9 2 1 24.2 23 11 10 2 3 24 1 1.054 8.4 0.7 1.1 8.8 8.00
2008 21 Staten Island A- 3.00 5 5 0 24.0 20 12 8 5 7 31 1 1.125 7.5 1.9 2.6 11.6 4.43
2009 22 2 Teams A-A+ 2.92 26 20 0 117.0 96 42 38 6 15 118 1 0.949 7.4 0.5 1.2 9.1 7.87
2009 22 Charleston A 2.38 17 11 0 75.2 62 24 20 3 11 78 0 0.965 7.4 0.4 1.3 9.3 7.09
2009 22 Tampa A+ 3.92 9 9 0 41.1 34 18 18 3 4 40 1 0.919 7.4 0.7 0.9 8.7 10.00
2010 23 3 Teams AA-A+-AAA 3.20 28 27 1 160.1 148 61 57 11 28 153 5 1.098 8.3 0.6 1.6 8.6 5.46
2010 23 Tampa A+ 2.72 8 8 0 43.0 35 14 13 3 6 53 2 0.953 7.3 0.6 1.3 11.1 8.83
2010 23 Trenton AA 3.10 17 16 1 98.2 90 37 34 7 18 86 2 1.095 8.2 0.6 1.6 7.8 4.78
2010 23 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre AAA 4.82 3 3 0 18.2 23 10 10 1 4 14 1 1.446 11.1 0.5 1.9 6.8 3.50
5 Seasons 3.16 78 59 4 353.0 317 137 124 26 62 348 8 1.074 8.1 0.7 1.6 8.9 5.61
A (2 seasons) 2.82 22 16 0 95.2 87 34 30 5 19 89 0 1.108 8.2 0.5 1.8 8.4 4.68
Rk (2 seasons) 3.13 14 2 3 31.2 28 12 11 2 4 35 1 1.011 8.0 0.6 1.1 9.9 8.75
A+ (2 seasons) 3.31 17 17 0 84.1 69 32 31 6 10 93 3 0.937 7.4 0.6 1.1 9.9 9.30
AA (1 season) 3.10 17 16 1 98.2 90 37 34 7 18 86 2 1.095 8.2 0.6 1.6 7.8 4.78
A- (1 season) 3.00 5 5 0 24.0 20 12 8 5 7 31 1 1.125 7.5 1.9 2.6 11.6 4.43
AAA (1 season) 4.82 3 3 0 18.2 23 10 10 1 4 14 1 1.446 11.1 0.5 1.9 6.8 3.50
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/22/2010.

There are a lot of really good reasons to like Hector Noesi. Chief among them is his picture-perfect K/BB rates. Take a look at them, because they are a thing of beauty. A career 5.61 K/BB. 1.6 BB/9. 8.9 K/9. He controls the strike zone like no other Yankee prospect since the days of Phil Hughes. He has slowly built up his innings count in a way not to damage his arm, but to adequately prepare him for a MLB workload. His scouting report is positive across the board, if often unspectacular: a low 90s fastball with some cut to it, an average curveball, and an average-to-above-average changeup. He puts it all together with excellent command, control, and poise on the mound.

Noesi is never going to be an ace. He doesn’t have amazing stuff, and isn’t going to get any better at this point in his career. His K rates didn’t hold up so well in his (admittedly, first crack at) promotion to Double-A and Triple-A. Still, he remained effective and didn’t increase his walk rate. The best case scenario for Noesi is that he ends up being roughly equal to James Shields. But even if he doesn’t make it that far, he should be a useful pitcher in the back end of the Yankee rotation.

But the real question for any Yankee starting prospect is how? How will Hector Noesi break in to a win-now rotation? I think that he is pretty well positioned. Noesi is on the 40-man roster, and will start 2011 in Triple-A. He will likely compete with Ivan Nova and possibly David Phelps for the top spot on the team’s depth chart. From there, the Yankees will demand immediate average or better pitching from Noesi. I think he’s capable of quickly translating his skills to the majors. At the very least, he’ll throw strikes, eat innings, and keep the team in games. A guy like Ivan Nova is vulnerable to charges of taxing the bullpen (with short appearances) or the potential for blow-outs. I think that risk is diminished with Noesi – its part of what makes him so steady.

I ranked Noesi at #4 – ahead of high ceiling prospects like Andrew Brackman, Delin Betances, and ahead of the more experienced Ivan Nova – because I believe he’s a slam dunk to be a major league pitcher. His skills translate really well to the majors. He doesn’t have junk stuff, and he knows how to use it. He’s healthy. He’s in a good position to crack a rotation. I think that there are some concerns – out pitches, control – for Nova, and plenty of them for Brackman and Betances – to warrant this placement. The Yankees might offer him as trade bait, or they might give him a chance in New York.

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Phil Hughes' Outing

Posted by Stephen R. at 3:07 pm 2 Responses »
Sep 222010

What follows is a scouting report of every pitch Phil Hughes threw last night, his tendencies against right-handed and left-handed batters, where he struggled and where he excelled, and why he should be the favorite to start Game 3 of the American League Division Series.  It’s very long, so we’ll get after it as soon as you click Continue Reading.
Continue reading »

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A-Rod's Excellent Baseball Instincts

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 2 Responses »
Sep 222010


Alex Rodriguez is an amazing baseball player who has put together a fantastic career. He will likely finish his career as one of the top 10 or 15 players in baseball history, and has a chance to take down the all-time home run record. While a lot of his success can be explained by his natural talent, Alex also has a reputation for being a hard worker with an good eye for minor details. His preparation and knowledge of the game are highly regarded, and he frequently does the “little things” that often go unnoticed. A few weeks ago, I cited the following Chad Jennings piece to illustrate this point:

Several weeks ago, Andy Pettitte was talking about Alex Rodriguez and said this:

“He can tell me almost every pitch I’ve thrown throughout the course of a game… He’s always in the game. His head’s up. He’s always prepared. That’s why he’s such a great player.”

Last night, Rodriguez said this: “I chased in the first inning, a slider down, but Westbrook had good stuff. He had us off balance all day. With the exception of a 3-2 fastball away to Jorge, and I think it was a 1-0 changeup to Granderson, he didn’t make many mistakes.”

Pretty much every hitter in the game would have remembered swinging and missing at a slider out of the zone, but I’m not sure how many would have known the count on Posada’s single and Granderson’s home run. Especially not a player who wasn’t close to coming to the plate at the time of those hits.

I bring this up because there was a play in Monday night’s game that really drove home how smart a baseball player Alex is. It was not mentioned by the announcers, and I do not think very many fans noticed it. In the long run, it was a meaningless play, but it was a true illustration of Alex’s baseball savvy.

Alex lead off the 4th inning against Matt Garza in what was a 2-0 game. On a 1-0 count, Alex topped a slider out in front of the plate, slightly to the third base side of home. Most baserunners would have taken off for first, where they likely would have been thrown out. However, Alex realized that the ball had a bit of spin on it, and had a chance of going foul if catcher John Jaso could be prevented from reaching it first. Rather than evacuate the batter’s box and try to beat the very slim odds and make it to first, Alex turned his body so that his width blocked the entire batter’s box, as you can see in the picture above. By doing so, he forced a charging Jaso to go around him in order to field the ball. As it turned out, the ball died a bit and Jaso was able to field it prior to it reaching the foul line, but it was a very heady play by Alex to avoid the natural instinct to go to first base upon making contact and instead try to use the few seconds afforded to the batter occupying the box to impact the play and possibly extend his at-bat.

As I stated earlier, the play was ultimately meaningless, particularly because Alex’s little gambit did not pay off. However, the play provided a clear illustration of his incredible baseball instincts, and displayed an uncommon savvy that is all too often overlooked. You would be hard pressed to find a more instinctual or prepared baseball player than Alex Rodriguez.

Photo courtesy of Daylife.com

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Positive about Phil and other Game Thoughts

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Sep 222010

Phil Hughes wasn’t exactly sharp last night, as he did walk five batters in 6.1 innings. He struck out six, though, so that helped his cause. The other thing that I was happy about–and RAB commenter ZZ pointed this out–was that Hughes stuck with his changeup last night.

We’ve all been harping on Phil to use it this season and last night, a game in which he didn’t have a ton of command, he worked on his most undeveloped secondary offering. He threw it 15 times, getting it called for a strike nine of those times. He also got a swing and miss on one. I guess now, when the season is basically over, is a great time for him to work on the pitch. That he was able to do it relatively effectively against the Rays is just a bonus. Hopefully, we see this moving forward in his next start and in the playoffs. I’m still unsure as to who should start a game three–Hughes or Burnett. Frankly, they’re just about equal at this point. Both are capable of dominating and both are capable of blowing up. I guess it depends on the opponent and the matchups. I should just worry about getting there first…

Speaking of that, the Yankees shaved off one game to make the magic number for the playoffs four and the O’s slapped around the Sox 9-1 to make it three. The playoffs are right there.

I didn’t get to watch most of the game and when I did, I found myself again frustrated by poor analysis from Michael Kay and John Flaherty. The frustration came from their discussions of Carlos Pena and B.J. Upton and how they’ve had bad years. On the surface, yeah, it looks like they’ve had very bad years. They’re both hitting in the low .200s and have struck out a lot. But, if we scratch the surface–which the announcers didn’t do–we can find positives (numbers do not include last night’s game).

Despite a super low batting average and a lot of strikeouts, Carlos Pena still has a .331 OBP, a .332 wOBA (aided by a 15% walk rate and a .216 IsoP), and 27 home runs. While those numbers may not be fantastic, they’re not below replacement level or anything. In fact, they’re just about average–the rate stats, that is.

As for Upton, we know he’s got plenty of steals. He’s also still hitting for good power with a .185 IsoP. He’s still taking his walks with an 11% walk rate. UZR doesn’t like his defense that much this year, but his wOBA is still .337. Again, despite a low average and high strikeout rates, B.J. Upton has been productive in 2010. Memo to Kay and Flaherty: Batting average doesn’t tell the whole story.

Nick Swisher belted his 27th homer last night, leaving him just two from tying his career high of 29, which was set last year. Swish and is headed for a career year and could reach 30 homers for the first second time in his career.

Jorge Posada clearly attended the Bronx School of Acting with Derek Jeter and it showed last night. It won’t draw nearly as much commentary, but it’s still at least a little amusing. It ended up being a non-factor when Lance Berkman hit an ‘atom ball’ right to Carlos Pena.

Subjectively, the strikezones for both games appeared quite odd, so I ran to BrooksBaseball to check.

Here’s Monday:

Here’s Tuesday:

For Monday, I count at least 12 pitches in the strikezone called for balls. I count the same number of balls that missed the zone called for strikes.

For Tuesday, I see seven strikes called as balls. I see eight balls called as strikes.

This is not good. You can’t review balls and strikes in any instant replay system, but MLB needs to tell the umpires to come up with a standardized strikezone and enforce it. I sound like a broken record, but this needs to happen. It’s unfair for batters and pitchers to have to guess at what the strikezone is going to be depending on who the plate umpire happens to be.

All in all, it was a successful day for the Yankees. They won, the Red Sox lost, and they gained another game on Tampa Bay. Regardless of how gloomy things seemed in Texas and Tampa, they look great now.

Does Joe's return open door for 'Yankee Years Part 2'?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:00 am 5 Responses »
Sep 222010

Wake up Joe, you're the Yankee manager again

Here’s the scenario. Girardi gets a knock-out offer from the Cubs. One that the Yanks could match, but choose to pass on. Girardi, despite his loyalty to the Yanks, feels the tug of going home and is enticed by the opportunity to bring the Windy City it’s first World Series championship in over 100 years, perhaps the most elusive Holy Grail in all of Baseball. This opens the door for Torre to return as Yankee manager, and he emerges as the best candidate. Bobby Valentine is well thought of by the Yankee brass, but has always had difficulty dealing with people in front offices and the media. Pinella is both too old and too ‘old school’  to work well with Cashman. Tony Pena is a terrific coach, but lacks the skill set for the top job in a city like New York. Donnie Baseball and Buck Showalter just took other jobs. Don’t forget that Hal Stienbrenner was the one who wanted Joe to be there yesterday. He may be smoothing the path for Torre as plan B if re-signing Girardi falls through. What was once thought to be impossible is now at least plausible, Torre returns to the Bronx as their manger for the 2011 season.

This made the rounds yesterday, but frankly I think it’s all far fetched. First, don’t read too much into the Yanks inviting Torre back for what was essentially a public funeral service for George Stienbrenner. Anyone who’s ever been involved in planning a funeral knows that you invite people for all sorts of reasons, giving priority to the wishes of the deceased and celebrating his life over any personal differences which may still remain among the living. George was a person who made loads of enemies, but would eventually make up with most of them. Steinbrenner made up with Dave Winfield of all people, whose personal battle ended up with George being banned from Baseball. Whatever appeared in Joe’s book is a tempest in a teapot compared to what went on between him and Winfield. Joe was Steinbrenner’s manager through his greatest run of success as Yankee owner, George would have wanted Torre there. That doesn’t mean the people who run the Yanks (namely Cashman and Randy Levine) have any desire to see Joe return on an everyday basis.

Next, despite their photo-op yesterday, the bad blood between Cashman and Torre is far from resolved. Torre’s main point in his book was that he and Cashman had drifted apart, with Brian going down the advanced stat path and Torre seeing the game as ‘having a heartbeat’. Torre believes in words like ‘clutch’ and ‘guts’ which Cashman thinks are small samples and utter bullshit, respectively. This isn’t a problem when Billy Beane hires someone like Ken Macha or Art Howe, but it clearly was an issue between these two men. Brian will have much to say about who the next Yankee manager will be, and it’s hard to see him and Torre working together after all that was said in that book. A working relationship requires a certain amount of trust, especially in a big media town like New York where distractions can come from all directions, and these two simply don’t have it.

If you want to sell me that Monday night opened the door for Torre’s number 6 being retired, I’ll buy it. But for a return to the dugout? I just don’t see it happening.

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