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Cervelli Stance Change

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 21 Responses »
Sep 302010

Francisco Cervelli has long been the whipping boy for Yankee fans.  It’s not really his fault: he’s a backup catcher, and good hitting backup catchers are hard to come by unless you’re the Cincinnati Reds, so perhaps the biggest problem with Cervelli is that he’s gotten so much playing time this season.  Cervelli’s year has been quite the rollercoaster, a study in how shifts in BABIP can affect the results.  By playing a little arbitrary start and endpoint game, we can see how his season has been divided into very good and very bad.

Start of season to May 31st: 120 PAs, .320/.388/.400, 0.364 BABIP

June 1st to August 27: 145 PAs, .178/.254/.217, 0.215 BABIP

August 29 to present: 47 PAs, .441/.587/.529, 0.517 BABIP

The simplest and easiest answer here to explain his recent surge is to assume that he’s just getting more good fortune on balls in play like he did when the season started.  In all probability, this is the best explanation. But in this morning’s comments leftylarry suggested that Cervelli had made some changes to his batting stance:

“Anybody else notice that Cervelli is no longer leaning his head forward with his back (right ) shoulder up to high?
LONG finally figured it out and lately he’s hitting the ball again PRETTY well.  He won’t get HIT in the head now anymore either as he can see the ball earlier and pick up the rotation and velocity better.”

I’m always interested in alternative explanations, so we’ll examine his batting stance over the past few months after the jump.

Continue reading »

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Pitching Frustrations in Last Night's Game

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Sep 302010

During last night’s game, I found myself rather frustrated by the Yankees’ pitchers.

Javier Vazquez’s performance–which could be his last innings as a Yankee–was the cherry on top of the disappointment sundae that has been 2010 for Mr. Vazquez. He was one out away from giving up just four runs in 4.2 innings, but a hanging curveball to Aaron Hill changed that. I was sad for Javy that he gave up that blast, but there was a bit of anger in me. Granted, that anger had little to do with Vazquez and everything to do with the hitter: I have an irrational hatred for Aaron Hill. I don’t know why; I don’t know where it comes from…I just hate the dude.

Encouragingly enough, Javy did manage to get six swings-and-misses last night, but that’s just looking on the super bright side. As I’ve said many times, it’s just sad, and borderline painful, to see the 2010 version of Javier Vazquez. Many will stand up and say, “See? I knew he couldn’t pitch in New York!” but that’s ridiculous. Javy lost the zip on his fastball and the bite on his breaking pitches. Because of that, his changeup was ineffective. No matter what league, no matter what city, Vazquez likely would’ve struggled this year. Diminished stuff, not physical location, is what killed Javy.

Most of my frustration about the pitching, though, came from after the exit of Vazquez.

Even after the Yankees made it 7-3, this game was most likely not winnable and not high leveraged. Look at the WPA graph; the Yankees were never really in this game. Why, then, were David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain allowed to pitch? Robertson has had back spasms and should not be pitching in this low leverage a situation. Obviously, he needs to stay sharp, but I think resting him before an off day may’ve been a better choice.

Joba just threw the other night against the Red Sox and I think he, too, could’ve used another day before an off day.

I’m not really sure what Joe Girardi was thinking by throwing those two in this essentially meaningless game. I could see them pitching if the Yankees had a slim lead or even a slim deficit, but to throw these guys when the team is down four in a throw away game is maddening. I’m usually very supportive of Girardi and what not, but I’ve got to question these moves.

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Does Joel Sherman read TYU?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:14 am 10 Responses »
Sep 302010

Odd thing happened yesterday. I was reading Joel’s latest article on AJ Burnett and something struck me as very familiar.

On Tuesday, September 28 I posted this:

By contrast, Cervelli has been AJ Burnett’s personal catcher, logging 23 of his 33 starts behind the dish. When Burnett is on the mound, opponents have stolen 36 bases this year, which is the highest of any pitcher in all of Baseball. AJ has also logged 15 wild pitches (#2 in AL) and hit 16 batters (1st in AL) to go with his 75 Walks (7th in AL). When a pitcher is that wild, it makes it that much harder for the catcher to catch and throw to 2B.

On Wednesday, September 29 Joel had this passage in his article:

Burnett’s strikeout rate is down to 6.97 per nine innings, which is actually lower than Vazquez (7.13). His opposing OPS is .823, which means he turns the average hitter against him into Torii Hunter. And how, exactly, do you trust the pitcher who has the most hit by pitches (17) and steals against (36) in the majors, and the second-most wild pitches in the AL (15)? This guy does everything conceivably to try to lose a game.
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Coincidence? Maybe. But if you’re out there Joel, thanks for reading.

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Predicting The Playoff Roster, Take 2

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 4 Responses »
Sep 292010

Now that the Yankees have clinched a spot in the postseason, it is once again safe to discuss the postseason roster. I last did so at the end of August, and provided the following list of players I believe to be locks:

Position Players (12)
Jorge Posada
Francisco Cervelli
Mark Teixeira
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Marcus Thames
Austin Kearns

Pitchers (8)
CC Sabathia
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
David Robertson
Boone Logan
Kerry Wood

I think Austin Kearns has lost his lock status due to some poor play and better performance from Lance Berkman, but I would still be surprised if he was not on the roster, as he would provide some pop off the bench that could be useful in a long game.

My final 5 looked like this:

Ramiro Pena
Chad Moeller
AJ Burnett
Ivan Nova
Damaso Marte

I think Burnett is a lock at this point due to a decent September and Joe Girardi’s faith in him, so that leaves 4 spots, with Eduardo Nunez, Javier Vazquez, Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, Greg Golson, and Royce Ring joining the players listed above as options. Marte is obviously out due to injury, so that leaves 10 players for 4 slots.

To complete the bullpen, I think the Yankees will take Ivan Nova and Javier Vazquez. Nova has performed well his first time through the batting order in most starts, and has the kind of stuff that should translate well to short relief. Vazquez wins the last spot by default, although I would not be shocked if Gaudin, Moseley, or Mitre stole that long relief role if Javy gets smacked around tonight. Additionally, with the Twins being susceptible to lefties, I think Royce Ring will at least get some fleeting consideration from Joe Girardi.

For the final two position players, I think Eduardo Nunez and Greg Golson will be the choices. Moeller is out because I do not think AJ Burnett will get an ALDS start, thereby leaving Frankie Cervelli on the bench and obviating the need for a third catcher. As for Nunez, he seems to have surpassed Pena as the Yankees primary utility guy over the last few weeks. While they may favor Pena’s defense, they seem to prefer Nunez’ bat and baserunning, which should result in Nunez making the roster. Golson’s ability to play the outfield makes him the final choice, with his speed on the bases being an additional factor in his favor.

This makes the final 5:

AJ Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Ivan Nova
Eduardo Nunez
Greg Golson

What would your roster look like?

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Cured: The Curtis Granderson Story

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:06 pm 17 Responses »
Sep 292010

grandy

And if you don’t know, now you know! Photo courtesy of AP and daylife.com

As the buzz from the 2009 World Series wore off and Yankee fans began to look to the next season of baseball, Ninja-in-Chief and General Manager Brian Cashman struck with precision and speed and dealt longtime Yankee prospects CF Austin Jackson and RHP Ian Kennedy, along with LHP reliever Phil Coke to the Arizona Diamondbacks and Detroit Tigers as a part of a three-way deal that brought CF Curtis Granderson to the Yankees.  After watching Melky Cabrera hack his way through a full season and without knowing what to expect from Brett Gardner, most fans rejoiced.  The Yankees were getting a real life centerfielder!  And not an old one!  And he wasn’t just a good arm in the outfield, he could actually get hits!

In four full seasons with the Tigers, Granderson averaged 23.5 home runs per year and was the owner of a .273/.346/.484 batting line over that time.  However, his career had been something of a rollercoaster.  His 2009 campaign with Detroit had been something of a disappointment.  2007 was the high-water mark, as a .360 BABIP led him to a .302/.360/.552 line and his single-season 14.3 UZR combined to make him worth 7.4 fWAR on the year.  The next year was a bit of a downer, and as his BABIP dropped some 45 points his batting line fell to .280/.365/.494.  Oddly, his UZR swung wildly to -11.3, providing yet another good example of the vagaries of single-season UZR (and, by extension, WAR).  His next season with Detroit would prove to be his worst and his last.  His BABIP fell another 40 points and his line dropped down to .249/.327/.453.  For a guy who had gotten on base at a 36% clip in the past, this was a fairly decent sized drop off.  The odd part was that Granderson wasn’t past the aging curve.  28 years old is well within the range of the peak level of physical performance for position players, so it wasn’t as if he was simply slowing down.  On the other hand, Granderson had always been a player with a very high strike out rate (24% on his career), and his on-base percentage had seemingly been fueled by a high BABIP throughout his career, rather than by taking plenty of walks (BB% only 9.5%).  Despite that, some looked at his batted ball data and concluded that Granderson was due for a rebound in 2010.  After all, his line-drive percentage had stayed relatively static.  He had even dropped his ground ball percentage in 2009, upping his fly-ball percentage, and despite the fact that his IFFB percentage had increased it seemed to the naked eye that Granderson would be a good bet to bounce back to something like .275/.355/.470.  Of course, there were troubling signs as well.  Granderson has always hit righties better than lefties, but he fared particularly awfully against lefties in 2009 with a .484 OPS.  He was a question mark, but a player with considerable upside.

As the 2010 season got underway, it seemed that 2010 was going to look more like 2009 than 2008 or 2007.  Things were not going well for Granderson.  In the first month of the year he put up a line of .225/.311/.375 with only 2 home runs.  Of course, the sample size was small and so when Granderson went down with a groin injury on May 1st fans were still hopeful that the Granderson bounceback year would get underway when he returned.  Nearly four weeks later he came back and the early results were good.  In a homestand against the Indians and the Orioles he posted an OPS of 1.190 and homered once.  He was never able to find a consistent rhythm, though, and when he headed into the All-Star Break his post-injury line stood at .248/.308/.428, leaving him with a first half line of .240/.309/.409.  Meanwhile, Austin Jackson had gotten off to a scorching hot start with the Tigers, cruising to a .300/.354/.403 line fueled mostly by good fortune on balls in play.  Meanwhile in Arizona Ian Kennedy had already thrown 111.1 innings of 4.12 ERA ball with a K/9 of 8.08 and a K/BB ratio of 2.38.  Had the Yankees made a big mistake?

The first part of the second half offered no relief.  Up to and including the Boston series on August 7-9, Granderson hit a meager .240/.301/.440, an improvement in power but very unimpressive overall for someone making X dollars.  At that point, Granderson approached Kevin Long and asked for help with his swing.  As the Yankees traveled to Texas for a two-game series starting on Monday, Granderson got some time off.  He appeared in both games as a pinch-runner, but spent most of the games on the bench and working with Long to try to regain some of his past success.  When he returned, Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues noted that Granderson had made a few very slight alterations to his stance: lowering his hands and removing some of the extraneous movement.

Whether it was that or some magic pixie dust that Long sprinkled over Granderson, it worked.  It worked so well that Granderson went on a tear.  It worked so well that Axisa created the Twitter hashtag #cured to refer to every Granderson success.  It worked so well that in the 179 PAs Granderson has had since his little Kevin Long siesta he’s hitting .275/.362/.588 with, wait for it, 14 home runs.  It’s been an astoundingly hot 45 game stretch for Granderson, and he’s raised his season line all the way up to .249/.325/.470 with a wOBA of .348, which is higher than his .340 mark in 2009.

Granderson was one of the biggest acquisitions the Yankees made this offseason, but the Yankees have relied on players other than him in 2010.  The batting order is littered with guys who  get on-base  and hit with power like it’s going out of style: Berkman, Swisher, Teixeira, Cano, Rodriguez and Posada.  There’s the familiar Jeter at the top of the order and the speedy OBP-machine and P/PA monster Gardner at the bottom.  But nestled in there in the seven or eight hole in the linup is Curtis Granderson.  He’s heating up and turning into a very valuable weapon, one with the potential to do serious damage to opposing pitchers in this year’s playoffs.  It’s a no-brainer to name him my playoff sleeper.

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Upon Making the Playoffs

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 2 Responses »
Sep 292010

Finally.

At the end of what has seemed like the longest September in Yankee history, the Bombers finally clinched the playoffs last night when they defeated the Toronto Blue Jays. A few things strolled across my mind as the final out was recorded:

1. Congratulations to the Yankees. They’ve worked hard to get to where they are and it’s great to see them get into the playoffs. We knew from the beginning of the year that they would most likely end up here, but that doesn’t make the act of clinching the playoffs any less special. The ultimate goal is to win the World Series, but you’ve got to make the playoffs before you do. The Yankees have accomplished that step and we should celebrate it, just like they did last night.

2. OH PEACE, BOSTON! With the win, the Yankees eliminated the Boston Red Sox from playoff contention and that’s always something sweet. Seriously, though, considering all the injuries that team went through, along with under performances from Josh Beckett and John Lackey, it’s pretty crazy that they were able to hang around this long. They remind me, in a way, of the 2008 Yankees: they will miss the playoffs, but actually did pretty well considering the roster at the end of the season. Like the 2008 Yankees, they will likely have a similar record to a team that DOES make the playoffs and that must sting just as badly as missing the playoffs all together.

3. The ridiculous lineups we’ll see in the next few days will definitely bring a smile to my face. Tomorrow, I’m sure we’ll see a Scranton heavy lineup. There is, however, one crazy thing I kind of sort of want to happen: part of me wants Andrew Brackman to get a start. I know it’s probably not going to happen because he hasn’t started for a while and the likelihood of the Big Brack seeing innings is a long shot, but it would be cool to see him pitch.

4. Bring on the Rangers or Twins in the first round. I don’t care whom the Yankees face in the ALDS, I’m confident they can beat that team, even if they don’t have home field advantage.

5. Most importantly: thank you to all of you out there in Internet-land. This was my first season here at TYU and I wouldn’t have been able to enjoy this season nearly as much without my fellow writers and, of course, you the readers. Whether I’ve talked with you here, on River Ave. Blues, or on Twitter, thank you for reading and you’ve truly made my fan and writer experience more enjoyable.

The New Yankee Magic Number

Posted by Steve S. at 10:33 pm 2 Responses »
Sep 282010

Overstating the Importance of a 4th Starter

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 6 Responses »
Sep 282010

Since AJ Burnett’s awful performance in last night’s game against the Blue Jays, the pundits have ramped up the “Yankees have no pitching” storyline. Of course, these articles tend to ignore the similar lack of depth in all of the AL contenders’ rotations, and make it seem like the Yankees have major pitching issues. As I showed yesterday, this is simply not the case. More on point, it seems that many writers and fans are overstating the importance of the 4th starter in the postseason.



As you can see, the Yankees could use their 4th starter just twice over the entire postseason (Game 4 or 5 in ALCS and World Series), while only using a pitcher on 3 days rest one time (CC Sabathia in Game 4 of the ALDS). So we are talking about two games for AJ Burnett, likely matched up against Wade Davis, Jeff Niemmann, or Tommie Hunter in the first one and a Joe Blanton type in the second. While I clearly do not trust Burnett, the opposing pitchers are not exactly world beaters and the Yankees have the advantage in terms of offense.

Do I wish that Burnett was pitching well and that the Yankees had 4 solid starters? Certainly. But the struggles of their 4th best pitcher is not the death knell for the Yankee season that some are making it out to be.

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Starting CC Tonight A Mistake

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 5 Responses »
Sep 282010

With 5 games left in the season and a 5.5 game lead over the Red Sox in the Wild Card race (Sox have 6 remaining), the Yankees have a playoff spot all but locked up. The Red Sox have a less than 1% chance of making the postseason, as they would need to win all of their remaining games while the Rays or Yankees would have to lose all of theirs for the Sox to earn a spot in a 1 game playoff. While the 3 game set with the Yankees this weekend might make it seem like Boston has a real chance to make up their deficit, the odds are stacked heavily against them. Despite all this, after spending the better part of a month being smart about the health of their players and prioritizing the postseason, the Yankees will turn to CC Sabathia tonight and put aside setting up their playoff rotation in order to clinch now. This is a mistake born of anxiety to clinch, and presents an example of a team succumbing to pressure, both internal and external.

The initial plan had Sabathia pitching this Friday, to line him up perfectly for a start in Game 1 of the ALDS the following Wednesday. Of course, the plan also had the Yankees clinching by now, but a magic number of 1 should be close enough to allow Joe Girardi to stick to his initial decision to focus upon setting up the playoff rotation. Instead, CC will pitch tonight, and likely will not see any action for over a week prior to his Game 1 start. While CC had two periods of long rest prior to excellent playoff starts last postseason, he has performed a bit worse over his career with extended rest and has mentioned that he would prefer to be on schedule for the postseason.

Ultimately, this is not a huge deal, and I do not think it will have much impact on how CC pitches in the postseason. It just disturbs me that the organization is ignoring the overwhelming odds in their favor and is changing course after a month of preparing for October.

Update: As I was writing this post, Mike Axisa took a longer, more detailed look at the issue. Check it out. In that post, commenter j_yankees makes an excellent point that I may have overlooked:

I think proponents of the Yankees going with a 3 man rotation in the ALDS should look at this move as a positive.
Had the Yankees rested CC now and let him go into the postseason on normal rest AND decided to go to CC in game 4 on 3 days rest, he would be looking at pitching 3 games in the span of 9 days.
Now if he starts tonight and you go to a 3 man rotation. You’ll start him tonight, give him rest before game 1 and go back to him for game 4 on 3 days rest. You’re looking at 3 games in the span of 13 days.

Looking at last postseason, CC had at least 8 days off prior to both sets of three day rest starts that he made, as this chart shows:

Series Date Tm Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA
Series Tm Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA
ALDS g1 Oct 7 NYY MIN W,7-2 GS-7 W(1-0) 99 6.2 8 2 1 0 8 0 1 1.35
ALCS g1 Oct 16 NYY LAA W,4-1 GS-8 W(2-0) 8 8.0 4 1 1 1 7 0 0 1.23
ALCS g4 Oct 20 NYY @ LAA W,10-1 GS-8 W(3-0) 3 8.0 5 1 1 2 5 1 0 1.19
WS g1 Oct 28 NYY PHI L,1-6 GS-7 L(3-1) 7 7.0 4 2 2 3 6 2 0 1.52
WS g4 Nov 1 NYY @ PHI W,7-4 GS-7 3 6.2 7 3 3 3 6 1 0 1.98
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/28/2010.

While I have no way of knowing whether this was a factor considered by the Yankee decision-makers, it does balance the scales a bit and suggest that starting CC tonight may not be quite as bad for the club as I made it out to be.

Where do you come out on this issue?

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Rays' Attendance Issue More Complicated Than It Seems

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 32 Responses »
Sep 282010

After last night’s 4-0 loss to the Orioles in which the Rays blew a chance to clinch a playoff spot, Evan Longoria and David Price lashed out at the Rays fanbase. Talking about a sparse crowd of 12,446 for a potential clincher, Price called the situation embarrassing while Longoria referred to it as disheartening. This set off a Twitter war in which many criticized the pair for ripping into a fanbase mired in the throes of an awful recession while others applauded them for noting an obvious problem. Yankees fans, at least the ones that I interacted, tended to be in the first group, lamenting poor attendance for a team that has been competitive for three years now. While I understand that last night’s attendance figure looks atrocious on the surface, I think there are a number of factors that many people critical of the Rays fanbase are missing.

The most important point that I can make is to note that the Rays do very well on television and on the radio. This season, they are 7th in the majors in both television and radio ratings, according to Sports Business Daily (thanks to @capitolavenue for link). This suggests that the fans are far from apathetic, and that there is a strong core group of individuals who follow the Rays on a day-to-day basis. Just from my experience dealing with bloggers on the internet, it is fairly easy to see that there are plenty of passionate, involved Rays fans. The idea that there are no Rays fans is a myth perpetuated by poor attendance numbers. They have the fans, they just cannot get them out to the ballpark. The question then becomes, why not?

There are a number of factors that can explain the lack of fan involvement:

1) Tropicana Field is an ugly ballpark in an awful location. This is the simplest explanation, and in my view, the driving factor for the Rays poor attendance numbers. There are no public transportation options to reach the stadium, and the drive to the ballpark is usually plagued by traffic. Additionally, the park is not actually in the primary population center in the area, separated from Tampa by a bridge. Another problem with the location of the ballpark is that those fans that are very close to the ballpark tend to be elderly or transients, two groups that are not likely to purchase season tickets or purchase many seats on game day. The location of the ballpark makes for a perfect storm that suppresses attendance despite legitimate fan interest.

2) The ailing economy has hit the Tampa/St. Pete area particularly hard, with unemployment numbers in the area exceeding 12%. People without jobs or with less disposable income are likely to stay away from the ballpark and watch the games at home, which is exactly what is going on in Tampa. Remember, the fans did show up for clinching games in 2008, suggesting that something may have changed since then that has impacted the ability of fans to turn up at the ballpark. The current economic climate seems to be one such factor.

3) The Rays were awful for many, many years and have very little positive history on which to draw. It is very difficult to build a season-ticket base in a football state when the team is that bad for that long without ever showing the slightest bit of improvement. As such, while you may build some interest in the club, you are unlikely to get people to invest in the team until they sustain success for an extended period of time. Combine this factor with the fact that they are now contending in the middle of a recession and that the ballpark is difficult to get to and is fairly dingy, and you have a situation where it is unlikely that they will be able to build a significant season ticket base for a while. (Additionally, I am told by @leokitty that their ticket plans are an atrocity, and do not incentivize purchasing tickets).

Last night, I suggested that the Rays need a new ballpark in the Tampa area to survive in that region, and most Rays fans agreed with me. However, the local governments in Tampa are not amenable to building a publicly funded ballpark, and the current owners do not seem likely to build one on their own. The Rays may not be long for Tampa Bay, but it is not due to a lack of fan interest. Rather, it is a structural and economic issue that has limited the team’s ability to draw their fans away from their television sets and radios into the ballpark.

It is very easy to sit back as Yankee fans and criticize the Rays fanbase for its failure to show up to watch a contender. We follow a team that has contended for about 100 years and has a brand new ballpark that is easily reached by various forms of public transportation. There was a time, not too long ago, that the Mets outdrew the Yankees in New York, so the idea that Yankee fans will show up in any circumstances is a myth perpetuated by fans who began following the team in 1996. Fans tend to be fickle, and factors such as stadium accessibility can play a major role in an individual’s decision on whether to go to the ballpark or watch at home. Until the Yankees move their Stadium to an area unreachable by public transportation, it is not our place to judge Rays fans for not going to Tropicana Field, particularly when there are many factors distinct from fan apathy that contribute to the Rays attendance issues.

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