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Aug 272010

Before we start, I’d just like to let everyone know that today is likely the last day for a while in which I’ll have two posts up. On Monday, my internship and graduate classes start back up again, so it’ll likely be one post a day from here on out. Thanks so much for reading these last few months; it’s really been a great summer. With that said…

Let’s start the insanity. How about we go backwards this time?

Scroll down for a post about the 2011 rotation.

THURSDAY:

I contemplated Javy the Reliever. Obviously, we’ve had just one go ’round with this and it may be a few games before we do again. Still, though, I have faith in Javy to adapt to his new role.

I was also frustrated by Phil Hughes and his bad outing. Maybe I overreacted to this. I’ve got to give him some leeway as a young guy in his first truly full season as an MLB starter.

WEDNESDAY:

Some other thing have happened since this post. The Yankees are apparently uninterested in Hiroki Kuroda, so that point is moot. Chad Gaudin is still hanging around, and I guess he’ll serve as mop-up-duty man until the end of the season, then be left off the post-season roster.

This one got a lot of hits and I’m glad it did; that was the point, after all. I’m sticking to my side here: focus on Lee and roll with the under contract outfielders (unless, of course, there’s an offer you just can’t refuse for someone).

TUESDAY

Another one with a lot of reader reaction, I expressed some displeasure with the YES Network. I’m likely not going to change my mind here, though Ben’s comment about the MiL stuff makes a great deal of sense.

The reign of Ivan the Nova started Monday night so I took a quick look at him. He did well, but got a little lucky in that first inning. He settled nicely after that, though, and out pitched what I thought he’d do. Let’s see what he can do in his next start.

MONDAY

Another Derek Jeter post (kind of) and some free agent talk. I’ll stand by the free agent stuff, as well as the retirement issues.

Have a good weekend, everyone. For those readers going back to school, good luck this semester. If you need help with an English paper, feel free to drop a line.

Keith Law and Jim Callis both chimed in on the Yankee farm system in chats this week, and the prognosis is encouraging. Let’s take a look at the chat answers from Callis first:

Nick (Connecticut): Is the Yankees farm system in the top 15?

Jim Callis: Yes. It takes a lot of time to break down all the systems and rank them against each other, but I’m confident enough to say the Yankees should rank in the top 10.

o (ct): Let’s get this straight, you are saying the Yanks system is in better shape than the sox?

Jim Callis: I did say that, yes.

A few weeks ago we parsed some comments from Callis to mean that the Yankees would be near the top 10, so it is good to see him confirm that assessment. The second comments is icing on the cake. Although the Red Sox strong 2010 draft may change that evaluation shortly, it seems fairly clear that the Yankees have more major league talent close to the big leagues. Keith Law was asked a similar question, and had the following to say:

Q: KLaw, I know the Red Sox just added some serious talent with this years draft but as of right now who has the better Farm System Yankees or Red Sox. Thanks in advance.
Klaw (1:21 PM): Yanks have more near-in talent. Red Sox have more depth and had a stronger 2010 draft.

It is amazing how a few months ago, the Yankees had little near in talent, with Romine and Montero their only real prospects above A ball. With Betances, Banuelos, and Brackman now at AA and Adam Warren, Hector Noesi, Brandon Laird, and David Phelps taking a step forward, the Yankees have a number of strong prospects at AA or higher. Speaking of “The Killer B’s,” Law was asked about them:

The Killer B’s. Brackman, Banuelos, Bentances. Who cracks the top 100?
Klaw (1:15 PM): All three.

Elsewhere, Law stated that 5 Yankees would make his top 100. With Montero a lock and the Killer B’s involved as well, the last slot will likely go to one of Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, and Austin Romine. Law has cooled on Romine and Heathcott has struck out plenty at A this season, so I would guess that Sanchez makes his list. For the first time in a few years, the Yankees have 6 or 7 prospects that are legitimate candidates for top 100 prospect rankings. For a system that was ranked 22nd by Baseball America just last season, this has been quite a remarkable turnaround.

There are a few ways the 2010 Yankee pitching rotation could end up. Let’s run ‘em down. Disclaimer: I’m not including Javier Vazquez in any of these plans. I think there’s literally a 0.0% chance he is with the Yankees after 2010.

First, there’s this one:

CC Sabathia/Cliff Lee/A.J. Burnett/Andy Pettitte/Phil Hughes

That’d is probably the most desirable rotation out there. It’s got two of the best lefties in the game, a flame throwing (but inconsistent) right hander with a devastating curveball, a veteran lefty who can pitch a good amount of innings, and a young righty with plenty of upside. It will be hard for any team to top this hypothetical rotation.

Then, there’s the possibility that the Yankees sign Cliff Lee, but Andy Pettitte retires. In that case, everyone moves up, and there’s a hole in the fifth spot. In that case, I’d imagine we’ll see another competition for the fifth starter’s spot. I’m sure Ivan Nova would be involved in that and, hopefully, Joba Chamberlain would be as well. As Ben Kabak, others, and I discussed on Twitter the other day, we would be pretty mad if the Yankees have an open spot in the rotation come Spring Training and don’t give Joba Chamberlain a shot. I’m not holding my breath, but it could happen.

Then, there’s the situation that’s not optimal: the Yankees don’t sign Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte decides to hang ‘em up. In that case, there’d be two rotation spots open and in that case, I really think the Yankees would be forced to give Joba another shot. If that happens, though, they could change course a bit. Perhaps in that situation, they’d look to trade someone (Brett Gardner, perhaps, as his stock has risen a bit) for a starter and go after Carl Crawford or look to retain Austin Kearns as a full time starter. I say they’d possibly go for a trade because after Cliff Lee, the starting pitching market is rather thin. Well, I guess in that situation the Yankees would have to give him at least a second thought, but I still don’t think we’ll see Javy with the Yankees after 2010.

No matter what happens, we’ll look back at this post on April 1, 2011, and laugh at my awful crystal ball skills.

Photo Credit

Could his next uniform be pinstriped?

There was a level of panic being promulgated by the local newspapers yesterday surrounding Andy Pettitte’s scheduled bullpen session today. Some of it was sparked by this quote from Joe Girardi:

If Pettitte passes a bullpen test tomorrow in Chicago, the Yankees can start planning on when the veteran lefty will return from the disabled list. If the groin doesn’t allow Pettitte to push off the rubber? How about a dark October?

“I think it will be a good indication,” manager Joe Girardi said of what Pettitte is able to do in the 20- to 25-pitch session. “If he is able to push off [it will be good]. If not, that would be a pretty big setback.

Try a killer setback.

The timing of getting Andy back would be tight, but not impossible. Looking at the schedule, the playoffs start roughly 6 weeks after today’s bullpen session, so a 2 week rest you still have a month to get in rehab and a start or two. Let’s walk through this. If he’s still hurt he’d be shut down for another few weeks. Assuming he’s fine after then, you figure they’d do some bullpen work or simulated games (minor league season ends late August) and he should be able to squeeze in a late September start and/or the early October Boston series and be ready to return for the ALDS. He hasn’t pitched since July 19th, so he’d need to see some game action just to get back in the flow of things. It’s doable, but there’s no doubt the timing gets squeezed somewhat. But if you wait two weeks and Andy failed his test, then you have your back to the wall with limited options. That’s where Kiroda comes in. From the same article:

The current state of the Yankees’ rotation has many baseball executives believing the Yankees will make a play for Dodger Hiroki Kuroda, who is on trade waivers that expire today.

I think the scheduling of the Andy bullpen session has as much to do with this as it does with Andy’s health. If they waited one more week with Andy, there would still be time to get him back on the field. But at that point, the window on Kuroda would be closed. I’m sure the Yanks want to gather all relevant information before pulling the trigger on an expensive (2.7 mil) late season pick up like Kiroda, for a rotation spot that may very well be filled in short order. So if Andy’s session doesn’t go well today, don’t panic folks. It’s the Yankees, they have a plan B.

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