That’s Derek Jeter’s line since May 1st. You many recall his April was much better, where he posted a much more Jeterian .330/.354/.521 (.875 OPS) for the month. But there’s an old axiom in Baseball about how you should never believe anything that happens in April or September. The reason is that in April, pitchers are still building up arm strength and their fastballs aren’t quite up to speed yet. Aging hitters who’ve lost bat speed will often put up big numbers in April, only to get exposed as the season progresses. Cecil Fielder comes to mind. There are also many minor leaguers who make a team out of Spring Training that get weeded out over the first few months of the season that veteran hitters can take advantage of early in the year. As I detailed yesterday, Derek’s had a lot of trouble on the fastball this season. A classic sign of a hitter who’s bat has slowed.
When rosters get expanded in September, it’s a similar situation. There are so many call ups from the minors that the overall level of competition suffers. Guys who wouldn’t be on the roster wind up starting because teams are taking a look at their kids, or a 1st place team is so far ahead that they’re resting their regulars. Savvy veteran hitters can often take advantage of a rookie pitcher’s inexperience or flaws based on their predictability or inability to throw strikes. Even if Derek has a good September, I’ll still have some healthy skepticism heading into October, where the best teams feature their best pitchers.
So who’s the real Derek? Barring some injury with Derek that were unaware of, I would have to think the mid-season numbers are what we should expect as a baseline from him going forward. Can the Yanks or Yankee fans live with that? From their leadoff or #2 hitter? I’d like to ask our readers, if that’s who Derek is at this point in his career, can you accept that? If not, both provide an alternative to play SS and a place on the Yanks for him over the next few years, because nobody doubts that he will be re-signed by the team and will retire as a Yankee.
Bernie got at least a couple years to demonstrate that he was in permanent decline before they started moving him around and eventually out. I think we’ll see a similar pattern with Jeter. The clue will come with his next contract. If it’s more than two years then the Yanks are just in denial and stupid will rule the day. If it’s two years, he’ll be at SS and leadoff next year and if he doesn’t rebound, look for him batting seventh after that. the other Steve S.(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
As much as I like Jeter, he turns my stomach when he’s at bat, he’s an 1-2 pitch automatic out. He knew the Yankees were down to the last out last night, and true to form he takes two pitches and he’s OUT.So much for Mr Clutch.
Cashman should really think long and hard about strapping the Yankees down with all these older players, in the near future… salty(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
steve s. Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 9:47 am
Do you like this line from Derek?
.380/.394/.567
That’s his career line for 1st pitch swinging. steve s.(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
ben Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
reading comments like this “turns my stomach” ben(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Steve S. Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
I’ve been pretty up front about where I think Derek is in his career, but I won’t spend one minute criticizing him for it. There’s no shame in getting old, it happens to all great players and I would hope fans would treat him with the same grace and class that he’s carried himself in the pinstripes. Steve S.(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Damn, a Red Sox fansite link. I feel dirty all of a sudden. steve s.(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Moshe Mandel Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 8:57 am
Don’t worry about it. Patrick is a fantastic writer, and one of the fairest Red Sox fans about the Yankees that you will find. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
steve s. Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 9:24 am
Ahhhh . . . gotcha. I should have known a reader of this blog would be one of the few sane ones with obvious good taste. steve s.(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Jeter has changed persona’s with Cano.This is all about approach, not age.Was Cano too old when he was swinging at bad pitches with men on base? Is he younger this year?
Jeter is pressing, showing zero discipline and the results are to be expected.This is a choke job on the new contract.He’s not Derek Jeter and he didn’t get old over 6 months.
If he were 28 and swinging like this nobody would say he’s in decline.
Is Tex too old in April when he swings at everything in the dirt? leftylarry(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
.180/.214/.087…….YOU KNOW WHAT THAT IS? Cervelli’s batting ave for June/July/August. They have to do something. Posada could go down in Sept or during the playoffs and we will be stuck with basically a pitcher in the batting order… and I’m not that impressed with his D lately. Cashman has to work the waiver wire or come with something. Any suggestions? Dlogan(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
steve s. Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 11:02 am
This is the same as the Melky argument in recent years. Anyone that upset about the #9 hitter is looking in the wrong place. steve s.(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Matt Imbrogno Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
I don’t agree with this 100%. It would be one thing if Cervelli was getting the playing time that a normal back up catcher was getting, but when he’s playing as much as he is, it’s a valid concern. Matt Imbrogno(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Steve S. Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
Meh, not me. With Jeter and Alex having big downturns in their production and batting #1 and #4, that’s what I’m focused on. Is it a minor issue, sure. Is it a big enough issue to warrant this reponse-
.180/.214/.087…….YOU KNOW WHAT THAT IS? Cervelli’s batting ave for June/July/August. They have to do something.
Nope, not even close. That’s being way too worried about the wrong thing. Your #1 and #4 hitters will get around 150+ more PAs (each) over the course of a season than your #9. Upwards of 200 most years. That’s where I’m looking. Steve S.(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
ben Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
is there a reason you shouldnt try to field the best team? i dont get the argument “it is only the 9 hitter so it doesnt matter” ben(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Steve S. Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
How’d you like that 2004 team? Great hitter at every spot of the lineup. Steve S.(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Moshe Mandel Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 3:32 pm
I disagree. You need to field the best team possible, and Cervelli is hurting them at the plate and hasnt been too hot defensively either. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Steve S. Reply:
August 24th, 2010 at 5:37 pm
If the Rays/Rangers had a great hitter at the bottom of their order, then they’d have a competitive edge. But they don’t, so this is much ado about nothing or at least nothing meaningful enough to get worked up about.
To expound on my 2004 comment, I like that Cash is building more balanced teams, ones that catch the ball as well as hit. You’re going to give up something at times when you do that, but I still think that’s the right approach for a GM to take. Steve S.(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
With his performance this season he hasn’t earned a multiple year deal. Too protect the team going forward I would only offer him a 1 year deal with multiple team options going forward. If he plays well he comes back but if next year is the same as this year the team can easily move on. Jeter has always been about team first so will he still be? rooster(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]
Perhaps we should separate the hitting and fieldign questions. I can see Jeter as shortstop for two more years, though I prefer to see one-year deals only. His range is poor already, so it may get only marginally worse; his hands are sure, his instincts in the field are sound, and his arm seems as good (or bad) as it has been. But it does not follow that he has to bat first or second; he could be dropped to the bottom of the order, where his declining productivity would be less of a detriment. His offense profiles better for a guy who hits 8th or 9th. Scout(Quote)
[Reply To This Comment]