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It has been too long since I have taken stock of the Yankee farm system, so in this post I will go over the top 10 (in my humble opinion) prospects on the farm.  Overall it has been a good year for the farm, with many guys taking substantial steps forward in their prospect status.  Without further adieu, Eric’s Summer Top 10.  Critique away by all means.

1.  Jesus Montero (C, AAA, 20): What more can be said about Montero that hasn’t already been said?  After a rough start to his AAA career at the tender age of 20 (with sub-.700 OPS’s in April and May), Montero heated along with the weather, OPS’ing .829 in June and 1.073 in July.  His 11 homers on the season are indicative of his ability to hit for power, and his 40:69 bb:k ratio, while not elite, does indicate that patience should not be an issue for him at the big league level.  Jesus has all the tools to be a legitimate middle of the lineup force in the big leagues, with great hitting ability, excellent power, and solid plate discipline.  He also hits lefties and righties equally well.  Whether you buy into his ability to catch at the big league level (if he does, he may struggle to be even average there), Montero is a top 5 prospect in all of the minors, and could be the next great homegrown Yankee hitter.  Even if he moves to DH or 1st base, his bat is valuable enough to make him a big-time contributor in the lineup.

2.  Austin Romine (C, AA, 21): Like Montero, Romine’s 2010 has been a tale of two seasons, but the hot and cold streaks are reversed.  Romine raked in Trenton for the first two months, OPS’ing .917 in April (albeit, with an unsustainable .434 BABIP) and .841 in May (with a still high, but more reasonable .362 BABIP).  Since then, Romine’s production has dropped off, with a .667 OPS in June and a .633 OPS in July.  It is possible that Romine may be wearing down somewhat after a long season of fulltime catching, but even with his recent struggles, there are some positive signs.  Romine’s 34 walks represent a career high, so his plate discipline, long a problem, has improved  somewhat.  Also, it is worthy of note that Romine has significant home/road splits.  In Trenton, a notorious pitcher’s park, Romine has posted a pathetic .215/.287/.313 line, while on the road, his line is a lofty .320/.383/.474.  While the drastic disparity in performance cannot be attributed all to the park he is playing in, it is possible that Trenton may be suppressing his offensive production somewhat.  Despite his struggles, Romine’s bat should be good enough to get him to the majors, especially since he is strong enough defensively to stick at catcher.  He may never be a star, but Romine’s likelihood of being even a league-average catcher is pretty high, and that has significant value.  He is capable of more than that of course, but his floor looks pretty high.

3.  Dellin Betances (RHP, 22, A+): I know ranking the 22 year-old Betances this high after less than 60 innings may be controversial, especially since he’s only in high-A.  However (and these words could come back to make me look stupid later), when I see a player with his physical gifts begin to figure things out, the sky is the limit.  In Dellin’s case, this is exactly what has happened since returning from elbow surgery in June.  Betances has dominated Tampa throughout 58 1/3 innings, posting a 2.17 FIP with 10.49 k/9 and a very impressive 2.31 bb/9.  The high strikeout rate and low walk rate are indicative of Betances’s ability to command his fastball (which is now frequently in the mid-90′s, and touching a tick faster).  Command has historically been a problem for Betances, but it is possible that a healthy elbow is making all the difference for the towering righty.  His curveball, previously erratic, has become a nasty strikeout pitch.  To those wondering if Betances is benefiting from a friendly home park, his home/road splits are fairly similar (2.34 FIP at home, 2.04 FIP away).   If Betances can sustain these improvements into the upper levels of the minors, he could find himself on the fast track to the majors in 2011.  Part of me even wants to put him ahead of Romine, because Betances’s ceiling is so high, but for now, I’ll slot him in at #3.  Like Montero and Romine, he should easily make the top 100 prospects list.

4.  Manny Banuelos (lhp, 19, A+): Banuelos is another somewhat aggressive ranking, since he has only thrown 23 2/3 innings on the season since returning from an appendectomy.  However, Manny has not seemed to suffer from the time off, posting a 2.24 FIP, with 12.17 k/9 and 2.66 bb/9.  It is also worthy of note that his BABIP against is high at .375 (albeit in a small sample size), so it is possible that he is even getting a little unlucky (or perhaps has bad defense behind him).  While Banuelos does not touch high-90′s like Betances, his 3-pitch repertoire a low-90′s fastball (touching 94), plus change, and above-average curveball should be more than sufficient to handle major league hitters.  The fact that he is doing what he is doing at age 19 is quite impressive.  Like Betances, Banuelos’s home/road splits do not point to a benefit from pitching in Tampa, as his FIP at home is actually higher (SSS alert!).  You can’t really expect much more out of a young pitcher in high-A than what Banuelos has done, and the fact that he is a lefty makes him even more valuable.  He should also crack the top 100.

5.  Gary Sanchez (C, 17, RK): Sanchez exploded onto the scene this season with an impressive stateside debut, posting a .372/.440/.628 line, with 5 homers.  He has been probably the top hitting prospect in the Gulf Coast League (along with Minnesota’s Miguel Sano), and the fact that he is posting the numbers he is as a catcher is pretty phenomenal.  While Sanchez was not believed to have a bat quite as good as Jesus Montero’s, Sanchez’s stateside debut at the same age has been even more impressive, and the sky is the limit for this kid.  Gary’s defense has been somewhat rough so far, allowing too many passed balls and not throwing out many basestealers.  However, he’s young enough to figure the defensive side out with proper instruction, and he has all the physical tools to be a solid defensive catcher.  The only negative I can see in his performance (aside from defense) is a strikeout rate (23 in 25 games) that could be lowered, but Sanchez has plenty of time to improve.  He could very easily be #1 on this list next season if Montero graduates.

6.  Andrew Brackman (RHP, 24, AA): It pains me somewhat to rank Brackman this highly, since at age 24, his 3.74 FIP and 4.81 ERA are not too impressive.  What is impressive is Brackman’s athleticism, 6’10″ frame, and his ability to hit the mid-90′s consistently with his fastball, and spin a hard-breaking curveball.  He has made steady improvements, and his peripherals are pretty solid (8.53 k/9, 3.86 bb/9).  I’d like to see him raise the strikeout rate a little and drop the walk rate.  Brackman has not appeared to benefit from his time in pitcher’s parks, with a 4.14 FIP at home against a 3.33 FIP away.  His 1.64 GO/AO ratio is also pretty solid, will help him when he gets better defense behind him.  Most pitchers Brackman’s age would be considered maxed out developmentally, but with his relative inexperience at pitching due to playing college basketball and missing a season to Tommy John Surgery, Brackman may still be learning how to keep his mechanics in order.  Except for maybe the young Sanchez, the distance between Brackman’s ceiling and floor is probably the greatest of any player on this list.

7.  Slade Heathcott (OF, 19, A-): The Yankees challenged their 2009 first-round pick by sending him to full-season ball in Charleston instead of short-season ball in Staten Island.  Slade has held his own in the Sally League, putting up a .271/.367/.335 line, with 1 homer and 11 steals.  Slade’s lack of power and high strikeout rate are a bit concerning (57 k’s in 47 games), but he is still young and toolsy enough to improve in both areas.  While the stats may not wow you, the athletic Heathcott has a very high ceiling, and the fact that he is holding his own after a challenging assignment is worthy of note.  It is his ceiling, more than his current performance, that earns him a place on this list.  However, the performance could be coming.

8.  Jose Ramirez (RHP, 20, A-): After owning GCL competition last season, Ramirez has handled the transition to full-season ball quite well, with a 3.16 FIP for Charleston through 108 2/3 innings.  His 7.95 k/9 and 2.98 bb/9 ratios are good but not great, but his repertoire gives him the potential for bigger things.  The skinny righty can touch the mid-90′s with his fastball, and throws a very good changeup to complement it as a strikeout pitch.  I haven’t heard much about the state of his other offerings, but his first two pitches are good enough for him to have major success.  He has only given up 2 homers on the season (both in his last 3 games, ironically enough), which bodes well for a pitcher who uses the changeup as frequently as Ramirez does.  His ceiling gives him a lot of potential helium should he have a strong 2011 in high-A.

9.  Brandon Laird (3B, 22, AAA): I have never been very high on Laird, who has had a history of questionable plate discipline and mediocre defense at a corner infield position, and seemed to be a likely bet to move to 1st base or DH.  Laird has broken out in a big way in 2010, posting a .291/.355/.523 line with 23 homers in pitcher-friendly Trenton, followed by a 8/12 AAA debut in which he slugged 2 homers and 2 doubles.  Looking at his home/road splits, Laird’s OPS is .05 points higher on the road, which could indicate that Trenton has suppressed his offense somewhat.  Laird’s continued improvement with the bat, and newly respectable defense (he may be able to stick at 3rd base) have definitely put him on the radar, and he could wind up becoming an Aubrey Huff type player if all goes right.  Given that 1st base and 3rd base are tied up for the foreseeable future, Laird could wind up as trade bait down the line, unless he moves to a corner outfield position.  I may be ranking him too highly on this list, but his season has really impressed me, and I think he could hit enough to be a valuable player in the majors.

10.  Graham Stoneburner (RHP, 22, A+): The decision for this last spot was difficult, but the righty Stoneburner earned the nod because of his combination of stuff and performance this season.  Between Charleston and Tampa, Stoneburner has posted a 2.89 FIP with a 2.25 bb/0 ratio and a 9.90 k/9 ratio.  I’m very impressed with his control so far.  I expected a high strikeout rate because of a repertoire that includes a mid-90′s fastball and a good slider, but I expected Graham to struggle with his control as many power pitchers are wont to do.  Stoneburner has also done a great job keeping the ball on the ground, with a 1.78 GO/AO ratio.  2011 will be a big season for Stoneburner, as he will likely wind up in AA at some point, with the chance to prove that he could be a starter at the big league level.  If he can’t, however, his fastball-slider combo would profile nicely out of the pen, and he could be an excellent late-inning reliever.

Just Missed (in no particular order): David Adams, Hector Noesi, David Phelps, Corban Joseph

Aug 062010

As you know, I love numbers, so let’s dive into some fun Yankee numbers:

–Robinson Cano leads the Yankees with 2.46 WPA. Nick Swisher has the most +WPA (9.06) but Cano has less -WPA (-6.46 to Swisher -6.69).

–Robinson Cano leads the team with a .398 wOBA. Nick Swisher is second with a .394 wOBA.

–Robinson Cano leads the Bombers with 5.2 WAR (FanGraphs); Nick Swisher comes in second with 3.3 WAR. Are you beginning to sense the pattern here?

–Predictably, CC Sabathia leads all Yankee pitchers in WAR with 3.1. Both Mariano Rivera (1.8) and Joba Chamberlain (1.4) have more WAR than A.J. Burnett (0.8) and Javier Vazquez (0.6).

–David Robertson is 5th in the AL (min. 30 IP) with 10.94 K/9. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that number rises. Chicks dig the curveball, my friends.

–Catching prospect Gary Sanchez has a .611 slugging percentage and a .233 IsoP. He has 21 singles and 13 XBH (9 2B, 4 HR).

–As a LFer, Brett Gardner has a 7.0 raw UZR; Curtis Granderson has a 3.7 raw UZR mark as a CFer. I like this a lot. Robinson Cano’s 5.8 UZR is fantastic, too. But Rob Neyer told me the Yankees don’t care about defense…

–Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada (255) are tied for 7th all time on the Yankee home run list. Sixth place belongs to Bernie Williams (287).

That’s it for now. Have a good weekend everybody. I’ve got my last softball game of the season tonight before heading off the the shore for the weekend with my girlfriend. Have a great weekend, everyone! Go Yankees! Bury Boston!

As the baseball season progresses into the dog days of August, it becomes difficult to avoid looking ahead to the playoffs.  To be sure, this is risky business.  Any number of things could intervene to prevent the leading teams from reaching the postseason, like catastrophic injuries or unforeseen hot streaks from teams only on the fringes of contention.  Yet, statistically speaking the race for the 4 spots in the American League playoffs appears to be a six horse race, seven if you want to be nice and include Boston.  As of this morning, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA-adjusted Postseason Odds looked like this:

AL East

Yankees – 57% AL East odds; 38% Wild Card odds, 95% playoff odds.

Rays – 41% AL East odds, 51% Wild Card odds, 93% playoff odds.

Red Sox –  1.6% AL East odds, 8.7% Wild Card odds, 10.3% playoffs odds.

AL Central

White Sox – 60% AL Central odds.  Twins – 40% AL Central odds.

AL West

Rangers – 99% AL West odds.

So, with a solid two months to go in the American League, things appear pretty settled.  In all likelihood the AL East and the Wild Card belongs to the Yankees and the Rays.  The Red Sox have an outside shot, but it’s very unlikely.  The AL Central will be won by either the White Sox or the Twins, and the Rangers look certain to win the AL West.

Inspired by a post at The Hardball Times looking at the leaders in kwERA, which is essentially FIP without the home runs, I started playing with the advanced peripheral statistics for each pitching staff.  Which staff looks the best now?  Which team has the most formidable pitcher?  What you will see in the chart below is a ranking of 31 pitchers from all six contenders, Red Sox included.  Each pitcher’s ERA, FIP, xFIP, kwERA, K/9, BB/9 and K/BB ratio is listed and then scored on a 1-31 ranking, 1 being the best and 31 being the worst.  For example, Cliff Lee has a 2.51 ERA, which is the lowest in the group.  As a result, Lee gets a 1 in the ERA component.  Nick Blackburn has the worst ERA, so he gets a 31.  When it came to K/9 and K/BB ratio, I simply inverted the scale so that the highest K/9 and K/BB score received a 1, and the lowest score received a 31.  I’ve also included IP, by way of reference. The final column on the right is Composite Score.  The lower the score, the better.

AL Contending Starters

There are several ways to evaluate this chart.  Every category is assigned a particular color (ERA is yellow, FIP is blue, etc) and if a particular player’s box is colored, this means that he is in the top 5 of all pitchers in that category.  Thus, Lee, Lester, Price, Pettitte and Buchholz’s ERAs are all colored yellow.  If a player’s box is colored, it means he’s in the top 5 for that category.

One of the more interesting aspects of this chart is the way the more advanced statistics cluster together.  It’s no surprise that the xFIP and kwERA scores come in close together, since they both “eliminate” the home run rate in their own unique way.  But it is interesting to actually see xFIP/kwERA cluster more closely with FIP and K/9 rather than ERA.  In the same vein, it’s notable that the Composite Score seems to correlate more with the advanced statistics than just simple ERA.  In other words, if you attempted to create a list of the best starters on contending teams and used ERA as your sole guide,  you would come up with a very different list.  This isn’t to say that ERA isn’t useful.  Clay Buchholz could have such a low ERA despite relatively poor scores in advanced metrics because he’s gotten great defense when he pitches and could get the same in the playoffs.  This Composite Score metric is by no means exhaustive; there are dozens of ways to evaluate the skill of a pitcher.  SIERA would be an interesting statistic to include next time around.  But this method does attempt to bring to light the relative skill of starters on contending teams in a few very important areas.

Another fascinating thing this chart brings out is the skill of Colby Lewis.  If prompted, what percentage of non-Ranger fans would list Colby Lewis as one of the best pitchers on a contending team in 2010? 5 percent?  3 percent?  Regardless, After spending time in Japan, Lewis has reinvented himself and vaulted into elite company.  The first thing that often comes to mind when thinking about the Rangers is their offense, and rightfully so.  But in Lee and Lewis the Rangers have a very good 1-2 punch, making them a formidable ALDS opponent.

This brings up an interesting question, then.  In all probability the Yankees will face either the Rangers, White Sox or Twins in the ALDS.  Of those, which pitching staff is the most formidable?  The Rangers have Lee and Lewis, both top 5 pitchers by this metric, with Hunter and Wilson on the back-end and Harden as an option.  The White Sox have a nice duo in Danks and Floyd, perhaps the best tandem baseball, with Buehrle and Garcia rounding out their 4.  The Twins have the pitcher with the best Composite Score in Francisco Liriano.  Their three other pitchers all rank in the top 5 of BB/9, and are solid options.  Which would be the best to face in a short series?  When you factor in offense, does that change?

Personally, I’m not overly frightened by any of the three.  If I had to choose one team to face, I would pick the White Sox. The Rangers have Cliff Lee, and I don’t ever want to see him on an opposing mound again.  I’m also not wild about the idea of Vazquez taking the hill in Game 3 in Arlington against that home run-heavy lineup.  The Twins have a dominant ace in Francisco Liriano, who clearly has the ability to shut down offenses entirely.    Additionally, if the Twins get Morneau back their offense becomes respectable.  But the White Sox offense is relatively subpar, and while Danks and Floyd are superb pitchers I believe the Yankees could handle them.  But I think the Yankees could handle just about anyone.

In 2010, aside from replacement level guys Francisco Cervelli (.295) and Ramiro Pena (.219–I frankly didn’t think it was that high), Curtis Granderson (.327) and Derek Jeter (.328) have had the worst wOBA marks on the team by quite a good deal–”after” Jeter, Alex Rodriguez’s .347 wOBA is the third lowest among the regulars. Thanks to fielding and position adjustments, they’ve both been somewhat valuable this year. Derek Jeter’s current WAR is 2.1 (4th among AL shortstops) and Granderson’s is 1.7. Still, their years at the plate have been disappointing. Granted, this is perhaps a glimpse of how the other “half” lives. Not many teams get great production out of their shortstops and centerfielders. More, though, is expected out of these two as they’ve established themselves as two of the premier hitters at their respective positions. The rebound, it appears, is here.

Over his last fifteen games, the recently maligned (at least by yours truly) Derek Jeter has hit very well. His triple slash in that time frame is .347/.397/.476/.873. The peripherals–.050 IsoD and .129 IsoP–aren’t fantastic and the .396 BABIP seems high, but considering how Jeter’s hit most of this year, I’ll take it. It’s also good to see his BABIP that high. It’s been low by Jeter standards for most of this year so he’s been due for a regression to his normally high BABIP. This means he’s been hitting the ball harder. Keep it up, Derek. I want you to prove me wrong.

Over Curtis’s last fifteen games, he’s also hit well–.286/.345/.551/.896. That’s more like it, Mr. Granderson. The near 9% walk rate is solid and the .265 IsoP is all sorts of awesome. I don’t expect Curtis to hit that well the rest of the way out, but I’m glad to see him improving. Like Jeter does at SS (and Jorge Posada’s at catcher), a bat like Granderson’s in CF is incredibly value and is what makes the Yankees so incredibly dangerous.

Keep it up, guys!

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