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It's Time

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 32 Responses »
Aug 032010

I’m about to say something I didn’t think I would say at any point during this season:

It is time to move Derek Jeter out of the leadoff spot. The game against the Jays is still going on, and maybe Jeter will do something awesome in the late innings to make this post look silly, but I’m not wavering (at least until he improves): Jeter needs to be batting lower in the order.

This has essentially been a career worst season for Jeter no matter how you look at it. Starting with the numbers, we see a low IsoP (.113, second lowest of his career). We see a career low AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, wOBA, wRC+…the list goes on.

In terms of the more scouting aspects of the game, we can see it. His bat looks slow. His strikezone judgment has been poor (29.3 O-Swing% is a career high). He’s not hitting the ball with authority (career low 17.4 LD%, 66.5 GB%) and he’s seeing a career low 3.55 pitches per plate appearance. He also seems to have lost some bat speed. While Jeter was never a pull hitter, it seems like he’s been totally un able to do so this year with just a handful of hits to the left side:

This has not been a pretty 2009 for Jeter and unless he gets on a hot streak quickly, the Yankees need to move him from the leadoff spot. I will say that the difference between an “optimized” lineup and non-optimized lineup is rather small, but in a race that looks like it’s going to be tight for the rest of the season, it may need to be done.

If I were Joe Girardi, I’d order my guys like this:

1. Gardner, LF
2. Swisher, RF
3. Teixeira, 1B
4. Rodriguez, 3B
5. Cano, 2B
6. Posada, C
7. Berkman, DH
8. Jeter, SS
9. Granderson, CF

Yeah, I know. I’ve got Derek Jeter, the Yankee captain, batting eighth. Well, right now, his performance merits that. Last night, Rebecca made a similar argument so at least I’m not alone:

If Jeter was not Derek Jeter, if he was, say, Brett Gardner or even Nick Swisher with these numbers, he’d be hitting at the bottom of the line up, the type of weak hitter you can manage in a line up full of All Stars because his defense makes up for the lack of his bat.

This whole article is probably an exercise in futility as I doubt the Yankee organization has the balls to do that to Jeter, but it should be done. If it’s not done, it makes me very fearful of his coming contract negotiations. If they can’t move him down in the lineup, how are they going to negotiate with Jeter? Keeping Jeter in the leadoff spot is placating and appeasing Derek to no end. If we, as Yankee fans, saw any other team doing this, we’d be laughing. Objectively, Derek Jeter is hurting the team as the leadoff hitter. Let Gardner get a shot for now, Joe.

Over the last season and a half or so, Jesus Montero has reportedly been offered to various teams in exchange for pitchers such as Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Many pundits have taken to including him in hypothetical trades for lesser players, suggesting that his lack of a clear position makes him more valuable as a trade chip. While I understand the sentiment and agree that Montero does have some question marks that need to be resolved, the performance of some key Yankee veterans displays why trading Montero is a bad idea.

Put simply, the Yankees are going to need a young, middle of the order bat at some point over the next few seasons. Alex Rodriguez has had a down year to this point, and while I do expect him to recover somewhat, his age and health suggest that predicting a return to the elite player he has been in the past may be wishful thinking. Derek Jeter has an OPS of .722, and he too is at an age where it is legitimate to question whether he will ever recapture his former glory. Jorge Posada can no longer be counted on to stay healthy for a full season, and is likely to hang up his cleats at some point over the next few seasons.

With Curtis Granderson being a disappointment, the only players on the club for whom I would feel reasonably confident in projecting them to approach or replicate this season’s performance are Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, Robinson Cano, and Mark Teixeira (and the first two have some BABIP issues that concern me a bit). While all of the players noted as being in decline will still be useful cogs, they are unlikely to provide the Yankees with the dominant middle of the order production that we have become accustomed to for much longer. Even if Jeter and A-Rod bounce back, it is folly to depend on both to be superstar caliber hitters three or four years down the road.

This is where Montero comes in. Jesus is a 20 year old who, after a slow start, is mashing in AAA much like he did at the lower levels. He has shown himself to be a complete hitter, hitting for average and power, as well as displaying an increasingly solid batting eye. He hits both lefties and righties, early in the year and late, with men on and the bases empty, when trailing and when leading. Any way you slice his minor league splits, he looks like a major league hitter. The scouts love his bat, and I have seen many of them state that his is an elite stick no matter where he ends up defensively. Additionally, he is the only real middle of the order bat that the Yankees have close to the majors, and possibly in the entire system.

Yes, it is possible for the Yankees to supplement their lineup in free agency. But holding onto Montero allows the Yankees to forgo handing out huge contracts to free agents who are just old enough to be leaving their primes. And yes, it is very possible that he does not stick at catcher. But for a team that will need his bat soon, that should be largely irrelevant. You find a position for that sort of potential at the plate. You split his time between DH, C, 1B, maybe the outfield. You do everything you can to get Montero into that lineup on an everyday basis. He is 20 years old, and will be only 27 by the time Teixeira’s contract expires. Looking at the team now and saying that he is blocked is shortsighted. The Yankees should hold on to Montero. If they do not, I think they will regret it fairly soon.

Aug 032010

File this under the Case for Cooperstown Series if you’d like. This post was born out of last night’s Toyota Text Poll in which YES asked fans if Thurman Munson should be a Hall of Famer. Predictably, 93% of the respondents said that the former Yankee catcher and captain should be in the Hall of Fame. My gut reaction was a rather cold “no.”

Maybe this is because I was born in 1987 and know nothing of Thurman aside from memories and stories from parents, family friends, and of course the media. For what it’s worth, he sounded like a great guy: competitive, compassionate, and everything you’d want in a baseball player and a friend. But any time I’ve objectively looked at his numbers, I thought “No, this guy shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame.” It’s tragic that his career was cut short by his early demise, but we obviously can’t reward a player for what he hasn’t done on the field.

Last night, though, I took a bit of a deeper look. Let’s take a walk down Hall of Fame Case Lane and see if my mind can be changed.

The first spot I hopped to was the top 500 historical WAR database. On there, Munson ranks 241st with 43.3 WAR. This ranks above almost 20 current Hall of Famers, including Phil Rizzuto, Jim Rice, and fellow catcher Ernie Lombardi. Averaging out his WAR, he put up about 3.9 WAR per season, which is definitely solid.

Thurman also put up a 116 OPS+, again, solid and that looks even better when we consider that Munson was a catcher. He also put up a 118 wRC+ and a .339 wOBA. The .339 wOBA isn’t sparkling, but combined with his solid defense it made for a very valuable player.

At the end of all this, I’m still not ready to say that Munson should be in the Hall of Fame. Had he continued on his “current” pace, I’d say yes. However, he didn’t. It’s outrageously sad that he didn’t get to continue on that pace, but the fact remains that he didn’t. Had he suffered an injury rather than died, I don’t even know if we’d be having this Hall of Fame discussion. Regardless of that, the main point is that Munson did not get to complete what could’ve been a Cooperstown career. What’s just as sad is that my generation hardly knew him. Rest in peace, Thurman; you’ll never been forgotten.

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