IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

TYU on NYBD

Posted by Steve S. at 8:11 pm 2 Responses »
Jul 252010

Just a quick heads up, I’ll be appearing on Mike Silva’s blog talk radio show tonight, which starts at  @9:00 PM. Topics will be the Dan Haren saga, A-Rod’s chase to 600, Joakim Soria, Curtis Granderson and other Yankee topics. Mike does a good show, and is always a fun listen. Check it out if you haven’t already.

To listen live or hear the segment as an archive click here.

Jul 252010

Just came down about 30 minutes ago on MLBTR, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News is reporting via Twitter that the Angels have landed Dan Haren from the Diamondbacks in exchange for Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez, and a player to be named later.

Earlier in the day, Jon Heyman of SI tweeted that the Diamondbacks wanted Joba Chamberlain, Hector Noesi and Dellin Betances in order to make a deal. Since the trade went down soon thereafter, I’ll guess that was the D-Backs final offer. I would have passed on that as well. Betances has the type of upside that you’ll kick yourself over, and he’s been lights out this year.

Folks, don’t underestimate the fact that Haren wanted to play on the west coast, and the D-Backs may have shopped him around enough to get a decent enough package to accommodate him. They’ve long had a rep for being a very player-friendly organization. The fact that they’re losing money may have made them look to deal him, but Haren could have had some input as well.

As far as the packages that were floated around today (Joba/Betances/Noesi) don’t take them at face value. That could be coming from the Yankee side, for damage control purposes.

Jul 252010

Despite his high profile position as 2 time manager of the NY Yankees, Ralph Houk (like so many other WW2 vets) rarely discussed his military service. With Houk’s recent passing, the New York Times has published a piece that features an interview with Col. Caesar F. Fiore, who was Houk’s commanding officer in the 89th Cavalry Reconnaissance Squadron of the 9th Armored Division in WW2. Fiore died in 1999 at age 88. Here are the parts where he discusses his heroism in WW2:

“The day I remember best was Dec. 21, 1944,” Fiore said at his central New Jersey home. “We were holed up in the snow in Luxembourg. Five days earlier, the Germans had begun their famous Runstedt counteroffensive, the Battle of the Bulge. They had attacked with some 250,000 men and nearly 1,000 tanks on the 85-mile Ardennes Front. At Beaufort, where we were, they had engulfed our A Troop. They had shoved the rest of the battalion back three miles through rock-ridged hills to the picture-book medieval town of Waldbillig.

“Houk, then a second lieutenant in B Troop, had taken charge at Waldbillig. Two adjacent platoon leaders had been killed. He was in control of 60 men. They were trying to stay warm. They also were trying to stay alive. From behind the artillery-rubbled stone houses of Waldbillig, Houk could see some 200 Germans in their blue-gray uniforms sneaking through snow-crusted ditches. Then, one by one, six huge Tiger tanks poked their long black snouts out of the fog and clanked down the road toward Houk and his men.”

“Deliberately exposing himself to the withering fire, although the fire was so intense that his clothes were torn by enemy machine-gun bullets, he calmly moved from one position to another, directing his men. As enemy tanks continued to advance, realizing that his guns were ineffective against them, he secured a tank destroyer from an adjacent unit, and personally directing its fire, he forced the enemy to withdraw from the area. Through his gallant leadership, he was directly responsible for repelling the enemy attack.”

Those words were on Houk’s citation for a Silver Star; he was later awarded a Bronze Star with Oak Leaf Cluster. The day after Christmas (five days after his heroism in forcing the German tanks to withdraw), he was handed a sealed envelope.

“Get these orders into Bastogne,” Fiore recalled that Houk was told, referring to the Belgian city where the 101st Division was surrounded. “Take a Jeep and two armored cars. If you’re captured, destroy the orders. Burn them. Swallow them. Anything.”

Houk got the orders into Bastogne. Just another reason Houk’s enlisted men idolized him, Fiore said. When one of them was flattened with a bullet-riddled leg, Houk dragged him to safety. The leg had to be amputated, but he was alive.

When shrapnel from an 88 artillery shell dug into Houk’s left leg and he was notified that he would be awarded a Purple Heart, he growled: “What the hell is this for? I only got a little scratched up.”

Houk, who grew up on a Kansas farm, enlisted in 1941 after having been a catcher in the Yankees’ farm system for three seasons. After basic training, he attended officer candidate school. During the European campaign, he was promoted to first lieutenant, then captain. He was discharged a major, which became his Yankees nickname.

“In my outfit,” he said with his crooked smile, “all you had to do to get promoted was stay alive.”

Sometimes, you had to be lucky to stay alive. Houk once showed Fiore his steel helmet with two bullet holes from a German sniper. One bullet hole in the back. Another in the front.

“ ‘That damn bullet went in the back, scraped my helmet liner and came out the front,’ ” Fiore remembered Houk telling him. “ ‘An inch lower, I wouldn’t be talking to you.’ ”

An inch lower, and Ralph Houk wouldn’t have talked to anybody, wouldn’t have been the Yankees’ third-string catcher, wouldn’t have managed the Yankees or been their general manager and their manager again, wouldn’t have resigned after one season under George Steinbrenner’s noisy ownership, wouldn’t have managed the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox, and wouldn’t have inspired Fiore’s magazine article.

“I guess I’ve bragged a bit about his being in my outfit,” Fiore, the colonel, said half a century ago. “Some people have given me a suspicious look as if to say, ‘You’re just talking about him because he’s famous.’ They forget that, in the 89th Cavalry Reconnaissance Squadron, Ralph Houk was famous a long time ago.”

Jul 252010

Scott Downs and his weird hair

With the trade deadline a little more than six days away, Scott Downs is currently the most sought-after reliever on the market.  Downs is a 34 year-old lefty who was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the 12th round of the 1994 draft, but opted to go to the University of Kentucky.  After his junior year, the Cubs drafted him in the 3rd round of the 1997 draft, and for eight years after that he bounced around the minor leagues, pitching as a starter.  He debuted for the  Cubs in 2000, but was dealt at the trade deadline to the Montreal Expos for Rondell White.  He was a mediocre major league starter, and was eventually released by the Expos after the 2004 season.  He signed with the Blue Jays, where he relieved and made spot starts.

As with most pitchers, Downs made a better reliever than a starter.  Over the course of his career as a reliever, he has posted a 2.56 ERA over 302 innings with a strikeout rate of 7.6 per 9 and a K/BB ratio of 2.40.  His FIP has been somewhat worse than his ERA for most of the 5 years, but a mid-3 FIP reliever is still above average.  In 2009 he had his best year yet, as he struck out 8.29 batters per nine while walking only 2.51 per nine, on his way to a 3.09 ERA and 3.33 FIP.  In 2010, he’s seen a slight dip in his strikeout rate (6.92), but he’s really only on pace for a few strikeouts less than last year.  It’s hardly worrisome.

At the end of this year, Scott Downs will be a Type A free agent.  This alters the market for him significantly.  This afternoon, Buster Olney has reported that the Blue Jays have asked for high-end talent in exchange for Downs, given that the acquiring team would stand to pick up two high draft picks when Downs leaves.  Downs profiles a lot like Billy Wagner last year – a lefty reliever whose value is inflated by the bizarre free agent compensation system.

The Yankees and the Red Sox are two teams known to be interested in Downs.  As with anything, this comes down to a cost/benefit analysis.  The Yankees bullpen has clearly been subpar this year.  Whether it be because of bad luck or bad stuff, Joba Chamberlain has disappointed and the bridge to Mariano has been a bit shaky.  There’s no doubt that Downs would help in the eighth.  At the same time, there is reason for optimism going forward.  David Robertson is showing signs of improvement and has struck out 11 batters over his last 7.2 innings without allowing a run.   Additionally, the Yankees have Jonathan Albaladejo and his 11.76 K/9 wasting away in Scranton with another interesting reliever starting to put it together as well.  Further, the acquisition of Dan Haren would likely mean that Phil Hughes would move to the bullpen for September and October.  Given that, the relative paucity of quality relievers on the trade market this summer and the number of teams looking for relief help, I wouldn’t recommend that the Yankees surrender much for Downs.   Relievers are fungible, there is bigger game to hunt right now.

Jul 252010

I must admit I’ve been surprised at some of the push back among fans who don’t want the Yanks to make a deal for Dan Haren for a variety of reasons. So I wanted to go through some of the most common complaints I’ve heard, and see if they have any merit. Here they are-

-”He’s having a bad season”

No, he’s not. We went over this yesterday.

-”He’s a 1st half pitcher”

This argument has merit. Here’s the numbers:

I      Split   G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR SB CS  BB  SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS   TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
    1st Half 117 3187 2959 323 695 143 13 84 60 16 166 664  4.00 .235 .279 .377 .657 1116  50  24 20 18  13  38  .274    86
    2nd Half 100 2487 2310 293 641 130 19 79 36 15 133 512  3.85 .277 .319 .453 .772 1046  48  15 17 12  11  19  .325   118
I      Split  W  L W-L%  ERA   G  GS GF CG SHO SV    IP   H   R  ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP BK WP   BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
    1st Half 47 37 .560 3.29 117 117  0  7   1  0 781.1 695 323 286 84 166  13 664  24  1 35 3187 1.102  7.6  4.00
    2nd Half 39 33 .542 4.27 100  91  2  3   1  0 586.1 641 293 278 79 133  11 512  15  0 27 2487 1.320  7.9  3.85

The numbers are indisputable, he hasn’t been nearly as sharp in the 2nd half of most seasons. Clearly, he gets hit harder. His BABIP goes up 51 points, OPS against rises by .115. Overall, his ERA has gone up anywhere from 1.5-2 Runs every year after the All Star break since 2005 which ironically was his first full season in the bigs. But I have to think that wearing down over the course of a season comes down to getting enough rest and proper conditioning, which are things you can generally deal with. While it may be an issue this year, I wouldn’t let that stop me from acquiring a pitcher of his caliber, one that you’d control until 2013.

-”He can’t perform in the AL East”

Yankee Stadium

I           Year W L  W-L%  ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP  H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
            2006 2 0 1.000 1.23 2  2  0  1   0  0 14.2 13 2  2  1  0   0 11   2     0 57 0.886        6.8
            2007 1 0 1.000 8.44 1  1  0  0   0  0  5.1  8 5  5  0  2   0  5   1     0 27 1.875  8.4  2.50
    Career Total 3 0 1.000 3.15 3  3  0  1   0  0 20.0 21 7  7  1  2   0 16   3     0 84 1.150  7.2  8.00

Rogers Center

I           Year W L  W-L%  ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP  H  R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
            2005 0       0 6.00 1  1  0  0   0  0  6.0  8  4  4  0  1   0  6   0     0  26 1.500  9.0  6.00
            2006 2 0 1.000 8.31 2  2  0  0   0  0 13.0 17 12 12  3  4   0 11   0     0  59 1.615  7.6  2.75
            2007 1 0 1.000 6.00 1  1  0  0   0  0  6.0  6  4  4  3  0   0  9   0     0  24 1.000       13.5
    Career Total 3 0 1.000 7.20 4  4  0  0   0  0 25.0 31 20 20  6  5   0 26   0     0 109 1.440  9.4  5.20

Fenway Park

I           Year W L  W-L%  ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP  H  R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
            2005 0 2  .000 2.53 2  2  0  0   0  0 10.2 11  8  3  1  5   0 10   1     0  47 1.500  8.4  2.00
            2006 0 1  .000 9.00 1  1  0  0   0  0  5.0  9  5  5  0  1   0  3   1     0  26 2.000  5.4  3.00
            2008 1 0 1.000 0.00 1  1  0  0   0  0  7.0  2  0  0  0  1   0  5   1     0  25 0.429  6.4  5.00
            2010 0 1  .000 6.35 1  1  0  0   0  0  5.2  7  6  4  1  3   1  4   1     0  28 1.765  6.4  1.33
    Career Total 1 4  .200 3.81 5  5  0  0   0  0 28.1 29 19 12  2 10   1 22   4     0 126 1.376  7.0  2.20

Tropicana Field

I           Year W L  W-L%  ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP  H  R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
            2005 0 1  .000 2.57 1  1  0  0   0  0  7.0  4  2  2  0  0   0  4   0     0  24 0.571        5.1
            2006 1 0 1.000 6.00 1  1  0  0   0  0  6.0 10  6  4  2  0   0  2   0     0  28 1.667        3.0
            2007 0 1  .000 3.46 2  2  0  0   0  0 13.0  8  7  5  3  0   0 19   0     0  49 0.615       13.2
    Career Total 1 2  .333 3.81 4  4  0  0   0  0 26.0 22 15 11  5  0   0 25   0     0 101 0.846        8.7

Camden Yards

I           Year W L  W-L%  ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP  H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
            2005 1 0 1.000 2.08 2  2  0  0   0  0 13.0  6 3  3  3  4   0  9   2     0  50 0.769  6.2  2.25
            2007 2 0 1.000 1.29 2  2  0  0   0  0 14.0  7 2  2  1  2   0  8   1     0  50 0.643  5.1  4.00
    Career Total 3 0 1.000 1.67 4  4  0  0   0  0 27.0 13 5  5  4  6   0 17   3     0 100 0.704  5.7  2.83

AL East Totals

W-11 L-6 ERA-3.92 GS-20 IP-126.1 H-116 HR-18 BB-23 SO-106 WHIP-1.10

The ERA is a shade higher (3.71 career) which is to be expected facing better teams. But more importantly, the rate stats don’t change. That is the same pitcher he’s been everywhere else in his career, including the ‘AAAA’ NL West. Nothing to this one whatsoever.

-”We don’t need him, the rotation is fine”

The rotation isn’t broken, but the bullpen is definitely a concern. You slot Haren into the rotation and put Hughes in the 8th inning once Andy comes back. That keeps Phil’s innings down and fixes the bridge to Mo for the remainder of this season and the playoffs. One deal fixes two problems, that’s the same thing that would have happened if they would have got Cliff Lee.

Note-The fact that the Yanks have been in on TWO starters this year should tell you something about how they feel about Joba. They clearly don’t trust him if they want another starter this badly, and that’s why any idea that he’s “off-limits” is just nonsense. They’ll try to keep him if they can (like any other asset) but push comes to shove and I’ll bet he’s in a deal.

-”I don’t want to give up Joba, I still think he can be a top-flight starter”

People need to give up the ghost already. Maybe Joba can be a top flight starter, but it’s not going to happen with the Yankees. Billy Eppler made that abundantly clear this spring. The Yanks aren’t the type of organization that can wait forever and let a young pitchers take his lumps indefinitely. They’re always in win-now mode, and the fact of the matter is they’ve given him the past two seasons to produce, and he hasn’t (for whatever reason). Joba also looks like he’s lost a lot of confidence in his stuff out there. A change of scenery could benefit all parties, and even if Joba regains his 07-08 form don’t assume it would have ever happened here.

© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha