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The Pursuit of Haren: Rumor Roundup and Analysis

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 8 Responses »
Jul 242010

Dan Haren

As the city broils this afternoon and the Yankees take the field against the Royals, trade discussions continue between the Diamondbacks and the Yankees over Dan Haren and other players.  Last night, the teams were believed to be close to a deal, but we later learned from Jayson Stark that the teams were much further apart than was believed.  As Ben Kabak’s from RiverAveBlues writes,

Earlier in the evening, Arizona team president and CEO Derrick Hall went on the record and echoed Stark’s sources. The Yanks, he said, are not leading the pack. “We are not close on a deal with the Yankees, and there are some other teams involved that have deals of at least equal value out there. I would not categorize the Yankees as a front-runner,” he said.

The sticking points appeared to be whether the Yankees would include Joba Chamberlain and how much of Haren’s contract the Diamondbacks would assume.  This morning, Jon Heyman gave an update on trade talks, which was significant in that Dan Haren is not represented by Scott Boras, tweeting that the Yankees were willing to include Ian Nova, Zach McAllister and 2 other prospects for Haren, but balked at taking reliever Chad Qualls and backup catcher Chris Snyder.  He also reported that the Yankees were not willing to include Joba and assume the entire remaining balance on Haren’s contract.  Bob Klapisch complemented this, saying that the Yankees were not willing to include Joba in any deal for Haren, but that the talks remained ongoing. The latest as of post time was from Buster Olney (via MLBTR) who said that the Diamondbacks had prioritized a closer in their attempt to deal Haren, which is why they requested Joba Chamberlain.  If true, we will all have a good hearty chuckle.

Dan Haren is a fantastic pitcher signed to a reasonable contract.  In 2010, he makes $8.25M.  In 2011 and 2012 his salary jumps to $12.75M, and his contract has a club option for 2013 for $15.5M with a $3.5M buyout.  For a frontline pitcher, this is a bargain.  Haren is durable and has spent time on the Athletics and Cardinals before going to the Diamondbacks.  He has a lifetime ERA of 3.71 with a FIP of 3.69 and an xFIP of 3.39.  In the past few years, he has increased his strikeout rate dramatically, averaging 8.58, 8.75 and 9.00 in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively.  Haren’s calling card is his ability to limit his walks, and he’s walked a mere 1.97 batters per nine innings over the course of his career, leaving him with an otherworldly K/BB ratio of 3.93.  Since 2008, that ratio has been even higher – 5.15, 5.87 and 4.86.  In 2010, Haren has struggled some and has an ERA of 4.60.  However, he is a textbook example of looking past his ERA.  His BABIP is .350, 50 points higher than his career average and 70 points higher than 2009.  As a result, his FIP and xFIP stand at 3.92 and 3.39, respectively.  In other words, don’t let his 2010 ERA fool you: Dan Haren is good at pitching.

This acquisition would come on the heels of the failed attempt to acquire Cliff Lee.  At the time, this was believed to be a unique opportunity, and I don’t recall many analysts expecting the Yankees to make another run at a big name.  However, it seems that Brian Cashman does not appear content to send the team into the homestretch and the postseason with a rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Vazquez and Hughes.  Certainly the struggles of Burnett and Vazquez, the injury to Pettitte, and the pending innings limit of Hughes have motivated him to make a move.  If the Yankees acquire Haren, they can certainly be cautious with Pettitte now, and not rush his return.  This also seems to imply that we will see Phil Hughes moved to the bullepn in September, and for the postseason.

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Breaking down 2010 Dan Haren

Posted by Steve S. at 7:36 am 23 Responses »
Jul 242010

Some fans are less than enthused about the prospect of landing Dan Haren. They look at his 7-8 Win-Loss record and 4.60 ERA this season and think he’s having a bad year. Nothing could be further from the truth. He’s a good pitcher on a bad team with a horrendous bullpen, one that’s so bad it’s a Run and a half worse than anyone else in the sport. The bullpen alone can affect his W-L and inflate a pitcher’s ERA by allowing so many inherited runners to score. A better way to analyze a pitcher is to look at the numbers he can control. Dan Haren leads the NL with 141 Strikeouts (9.0/9 IP) and has outstanding Walk rate at 1.9/9 IP. He’s given up too many HRs (23) this year, but I think that’s a function of him just trying too hard. Check out his Pitch FX velocity numbers:

Season FA-Vel SL-Vel CU-Vel CH-Vel FC-Vel FS-Vel FT-Vel IN-Vel PO-Vel UN-Vel Pitches
Total
91.0
84.3
79.7
84.7
86.5
85.5
90.2
72.9
85.6
42.6
11392
2007 91.8 83.6 81.7 84.1 88.5 85.6 89.9 78.7 87.2 42.6 2628
2007 91.7 84.0 76.9 82.4 88.3 85.4 89.1 71.7 84.2 45.6 - – -
2008 91.1 83.9 80.3 84.9 88.4 85.7 90.5 74.9 84.8 3122
2008 91.5 83.9 76.7 82.5 88.2 84.9 89.3 71.2 83.9 50.6 - – -
2009 90.6 84.9 78.0 84.9 87.2 89.6 70.9 84.5 3438
2009 91.9 83.9 77.3 82.8 89.1 86.7 90.3 71.3 84.7 52.3 - – -
2010 90.4 85.5 78.9 85.2 86.2 85.4 90.5 69.7 85.0 2204

(NOTE-Numbers not in bold are seasonal averages)

His Fastball is down a shade, but that’s a rounding error. It could also simply be a function of comparing mid season numbers to full season, and as we all know pitchers tend to build up arm strength and add velocity as the season progresses. But here’s what I found really interesting. His Slider, Cutter and Change are all UP this year. He’s throwing his secondary pitches harder? Classic case of someone who’s trying to do too much. Look at his horizontal and vertical charts as well. Less up and down movement (depth) on his Slider and Cutter, less side to side movement on his Change. He’s overthrowing.  That explains his HR numbers being up, a Slider with no bite might as well be put on a tee for most MLB hitters.

Dan Haren is still just 29 years old. He’s been healthy throughout his career, pitching 200+ innings and making 33-34 starts every full season he’s been in the bigs. He was great in 2009, posting a 6.0 WAR and finishing 5th in NL CY Young award voting. Dan Haren is simply on a bad team with a bad bullpen. You can’t blame him for trying to do everything himself, especially as the Ace of the staff. He won’t be asked to carry the Yanks with CC as the #1 and Andy, Javy and AJ in the fold. He can simply go about his business and the results should follow.

Make no mistake, Arizona is having a fire sale. You couldn’t touch Dan Haren last year, so when a pitcher of his caliber becomes available you have to seize the opportunity. Even a package that includes Joba Chamberlain will be buying low unless he reaches his full potential as a Starter or Closer, and right now he looks lost out there. I’ll trade potential for a finished product any day of the week. If the deal is Nova/McAllister and we take back one of their overpriced relievers, then it’s an absolute steal in terms of talent. I’ll let Cash and Hal worry about the budget. But if the deal includes Joba, Mo can drive and I’ll pay the tolls.

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