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Trading for Ted Lilly

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 14 Responses »
Jul 192010

Ted Lilly facing the Phillies

The recent injuries to AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte have many wondering whether the Yankees will reignite their pursuit of a starting pitcher on the trade market.  Aside from big names like Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren, one option would include Cubs lefthander Ted Lilly.  At 34 years old, Lilly is in the final year of his 4 year, $40 million contract that he signed before the start of the 2007 season. He is owed roughly $6M on this deal and will be a free agent at the end of the year.  Would he make sense as a trade target for the Yankees?

Over the course of his career, Lilly has been a 4.24 ERA pitcher with an ERA+ of 108.  He’s averaged a strikeout rate of 7.6 batters per nine innings and a walk rate of 3.1.  His best years have come as a Chicago Cub, and last year he seemed to take a big step forward when he lowered his walk rate to 1.8, leaving him with a nifty 4.19 K/BB ratio.  This year has been slightly different.  After undergoing offseason shoulder surgery and missing the first three weeks of the season, Lilly has struggled to regain his form with subpar fastball velocity.  Lilly has never been a hard-tosser, averaging 88-90 mph over the course of his career, but in April and May his fastball came in at 85.8 mph.  In June, it jumped to 87.3 mph, and now in July it is back at 86 mph.  However, during his best performance of the year on July 16, when he struck out 10 Phillies over 7 innings, his fastball averaged 88.3 mph and topped out just over 90 mph.

Aside from his troubles with velocity, there is also the question of results.  As David Golebiewski showed a few weeks ago, Lilly is exhibiting decent control but is generating far fewer swings and misses on his fastball, slider and curveball.  For this reason it’s not surprising that Lilly’s strikeout rate has fallen in 2010 to 6.49.  So while Lilly’s ERA this year is 4.07, his peripherals suggest he has been slightly worse than advertised.  His BABIP is a measly .253, well below his career average of .284, and his FIP is 4.70.  Eleven percent of Lilly’s fly balls are going for home runs this year, right in line with his career average, and his xFIP is 4.62.  This represents his highest mark since leaving the Blue Jays for Chicago.

There is also the question of Lilly’s Type A status as a free agent after this season. As RJ Anderson noted several days ago, Lilly is a borderline Type A pitcher and it’s an open question as to whether he will gain Type A status before the end of the year.  Anderson writes:

The problem is that Lilly isn’t guaranteed Type-A status. Bajek has done yeoman’s work and his rankings suggest that Lilly is only a borderline Type-A. The rankings weigh stats like wins, win percentage, and ERA, three things Lilly doesn’t have going for him, particularly the wins metric. You see, as Joe Posnanski pointed out here, to qualify for a win the pitcher needs to exit with the lead, which is a problem when your team never scores while you’re in the game, and that’s the case for Lilly. Among all qualified starting pitchers Lilly has the lowest run support at a tick more than 2.40.

Lilly could pick up a few more wins if put on a team with an offense like the Yankees.  At the same time, the win is a fickle stat, and he could see his ERA continue to rise both in conjunction with his fielding independent statistics and as a result of facing tougher opposition in the American League.  Further, it’s not even certain that his Type A status would matter.  There’s no guarantee that the Yankees would offer Lilly arbitration (they’ve eschewed that strategy in recent years) or that he would decline if offered. If Lilly has a mediocre second half, perhaps he would consider accepting arbitration, taking a $10M+ salary for 2011 and attempting to rebuild his value before hitting the open market after the 2011 season.

Finally, there is the question of cost to the Yankees.  The remaining balance on his contract is around $6M, which is neither cheap nor prohibitive for the Yankees.  However, the rumors were circulating last night that the Cubs had asked for Jesus Montero in exchange for Lilly.  This is, quite obviously, a ludicrous demand.  Lilly isn’t worth Montero, and he’s not worth Romine.  Is he worth Zach McAllister, the AAA pitcher with little major league value to the Yankees, and a handful of lower-level prospects?

All things considered, probably not. Any team trading for Ted Lilly and paying a premium in prospects must believe that his Friday performance against the Phillies is a truer representation of his skills going forward.  This is no sure thing.   Lilly is a fly ball pitcher with mediocre results in 2010.  He’s had injury trouble, and it’s doubtful that the cost in prospects of bringing him aboard can be recouped.  Ted Lilly simply looks too much like Jarrod Washburn right now and the Yankees would be wise to pass.  The injuries to Pettitte and Burnett aren’t the end of the world.  The Yankees aren’t desperate, and Ted Lilly is  no savior.

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Contemplating the 2011 DH Situation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 13 Responses »
Jul 192010

Due to Nick Johnson’s extended absence–during which he’s concentrated on his mustache growing skills–the DH situation for the Yankees has been a bit in flux. With the recall of Juan Miranda, though, it appears that the Yankees are going to let Jorge Posada catch as much as he can while platooning Miranda and Marcus Thames in the non-fielding spot. This all has me wondering what’s going to happen in 2011. There’s at least one free agent worth wondering about (and he could be a possible trade candidate) and of course, there’s El Carpentiero.

The FA candidate is, of course, Adam Dunn. His contract is up after this season and we’ve gotten wind in the last week or so that extension talks between the Nationals and him are cooling. As a strict DH, Dunn could do some serious damage in the American League, especially in Yankee Stadium III. Of course, we don’t know if Dunn would like to just DH. His defense is objectively horrible, but he may still want to get a chance to “play” a position every day. If he wants to DH, though, the Yankees should take a look.

Other free agent big bats include Lance Berkman (has an option), Jason Giambi, Paul Konerko, Derek Lee, Lyle Overbay, and Carlos Pena.

Of course, though, signing a full time DH is likely to shoot the Yankees plans for the catcher position. Though he could benefit from more time in the minors–as all could–it could end up that Jesus Montero breaks 2011 camp with the big league team. We know all about Montero: the bat is there, but we’re really unsure on the glove/position.

If the Yankees are smart, and I generally assume that they are, they will attempt to let him fail at catcher before sending him to the DH pasture.

What I outlined above is probably the most likely scenario for the 2011 Yankees. If this comes to fruition, I assume the Yankees will do what we generally do not like: carry three catchers. Francisco Cervelli will be the back up catcher for at least one more year while Posada and Montero split the catcher/DH duties. This lets Jorge get a breather every once and a while ’cause he’s old and it lets Montero ease into the position and, if he’s awful at it, will cut down on his time catching.

And, honestly, option two (the Posmontvelli option), is the one I’d prefer the Yankees to do. It saves the Yankees money on a non-versatile player and it gives them a chance to lightly break in their biggest prospect bat.

There is, obviously, a chance that Montero doesn’t immediately play with the Yankees, though. In that case, I assume the Yankees will again do a cheap DH platoon to start the season. What do you guys think the Yankees should do for their 2011 DH?

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Remaking the Yankee bullpen

Posted by Steve S. at 6:00 am 20 Responses »
Jul 192010

Can Robertson emerge from the darkness to save the bullpen?

If there’s one area of concern on the 2010 Yankees it’s been the bullpen, despite yesterday’s fine effort. More specifically, the problem has been the bridge to Mariano Rivera, who at age 40 is remarkably having one of his best seasons. I’ll go through the issues one by one and then propose some changes, all internal and none of which involve a trade. I’m not big on giving up talent for relievers due to their volatile nature and the learning curve involved with how to use them. Might as well just go with internal options that you are more familiar with and see if they can do the job.

-Joba Chamberlain has been put on notice by Joe Girardi, but unless he starts dominating (ala  Joba 07) it’s hard to imagine him being able to doing anything to regain the trust of fans and his manager. We all know his peripherals have been good, but he’s been far too combustible in his current role. You can’t bring Mo in for 6 out Saves on nights when Joba doesn’t have it, so it’s best to either bury him in the bullpen or send him to AAA. I prefer the latter. There has long been whispers about Joba needing a wake up call, riding the buses in Scranton would certainly be that.

-Damaso Marte was placed on DL with a shoulder strain on Saturday, and Boone Logan was called up. Does that injury sound familiar? Yep, he had what was described as a mild shoulder strain in his first year with the Yankees, then again last year when he spent m0st of the season on the DL. It’s anyone’s guess how serious it is this time, but all we can say for certain that it is a recurring issue for him. Yanks are saying 2-3 weeks, don’t hold your breath.

-David Robertson is being discussed taking over Joba’s role as the primary setup man. While his overall numbers don’t look great, he’s been reliable since his ERA peaked at an ugly 14.21 early in the season. Since May 5th, over his last 22 outings he’s had a 2.70 ERA and has  SO 27 batters in 24.1 IP. Walks have been high, with 15 BB over that same time frame. But he’s always walked batters, it’s part of who he is. That doesn’t preclude him from being effective.

-Sergio Mitre is due to be activated from the DL, and is expected to join the team on Tuesday for the Angels series. I have to assume he takes Pettitte’s place and slots into his spot in the rotation with Andy on the shelf for 2-3 weeks minimum.

-Andy’s injury probably saved Chad Gaudin’s spot on the roster, who was one of the most likely candidates to be released when Mitre was activated. Chad has done little in his second go round with the Yanks, posting a 6.52 ERA this year. But looking at Gaudin’s game log he’s been better of late,  giving up just 4 ER over his last 13.1 IP. Despite this, I think the Yanks will want to give Dustin Moseley more of a chance and Gaudin remains the one on thin ice. Moseley has only pitched 6.0 innings for the team this year and could be useful as a Ramiro Mendoza-type who can either get you a ground ball or give you a few innings.

Now that we’ve laid it all out, I would do the following to remake the current bullpen:

-Release Chad Gaudin when Pettitte returns

-Release Chan Ho Park, call up Jon Albaladejo to take his place.

-Demote Joba to AAA call up Ivan Nova

The beauty of this is that the guys you’re calling up can’t be much worse than Park, Gaudin, or (in all honesty) Joba have been this year. If any of them pitches to an ERA below 6.00, it’s an upgrade. Of these 3 items, I fully expect the first two to happen. Demoting Joba would take some guts, and the Yanks may be swayed by his peripherals enough to stick with him. Assuming Joba pitches well in Scranton, he would be recalled when their season ends in early September (if not sooner) and could still contribute to the MLB club this year.

The Yankee bullpen would then be as follows:

Mariano Rivera (Closer)

David Robertson (Set up)

Damaso Marte/Boone Logan (LOOGY)

Sergio Mitre

Jon Albaladejo

Ivan Nova

Dustin Moseley (long man)

What do you think? What moves would you like to see the Yanks make?

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