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Lefties and the bullpen

Posted by Chris H. at 8:51 pm 1 Response »
Jun 212010

Currently, the Yankee bullpen boasts a 4.15 FIP and a 4.35 xFIP. When compared across the two leagues, both numbers are fairly average, however, it should be noted that each figure is somewhat illusory. In reality, Joba Chamberlain – 2.25 FIP and 3.15 xFIP – and Mariano Rivera – 2.79 FIP and 3.46 FIP – have helped to bring the Yankees’ collective FIP and xFIP down, as no other reliever on the staff can claim an FIP lower than 4.28 or an xFIP lower than 4.03 (most of them have FIPs closer to 5, with xFIPs well over). The numbers have been evident on the field, too, as the bullpen has repeatedly faltered.

One of the Yankees bigger ‘pen problems has been their left-handed relief. Damaso Marte owns an ERA of 3.65, yet his BABIP is .214 (.289 career). Plus, his FIP and xFIP are 5.16 and 6.43. Meanwhile, Boone “Freakin” Logan (he has earned that name) currently sports a 4.20 ERA, yet he owns a 4.66 FIP and a 5.07 xFIP. Basically, though the numbers these two have put up against lefties have not been particularly poor, there doesn’t appear to be a light at the end of the tunnel, as both are performing over their heads. Neither left-hander really inspires much confidence and the numbers suggest that this is understandable.

So, what should the Yankees do to better this aspect of their bullpen? After all, it is an area that manager Joe Girardi seems to care about a great deal. Should they seek a trade? Matt Thornton of the White Sox could very well be available (he is probably one of, if not the best, left-handed relievers in the American League). Or perhaps the club should consider its internal options at the minor league level? Royce Ring is currently doing very well in Scranton – 1.50 ERA over 24 innings – though his FIP against left-handers is 4.76. There is also a guy named Kei Igawa down there who, despite a 5.45 ERA over 33 innings pitched, has posted an impressive 1.98 FIP against left-handers this season (albeit across only 11 innings).

Neither of these ideas – trades or internal options outside of Marte and Logan – seem to be guaranteed improvements over what the Yankees currently have, however. Therefore, might it be best to try and “fix” Marte and Logan – mechanically, mentally, whatever – in the hopes that they can beat the numbers and perform better than the stats suggest going forward? To be honest, I don’t know what the correct route is.

What do you think should be done?

Photo by Getty Images

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Previewing the Diamondbacks

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm No Responses »
Jun 212010

The Yankees take on the Diamondbacks for the next three games, so let’s run down who they’re going to run out against our beloved Bombers…

OFFENSE

Basically, this season has been Kelly Johnson and everyone else. He leads all D-Backs (min. 100 PA) in OBP (.371), SLG (.512), OPS (.833) , wRC (47.8), wRAA (13.6), wOBA (.383), and WAR (2.1). Justin Upton (.336 wOBA) has scuffled for most of the season and Mark Reynolds (.351) is flashing his trademark power (.186 IsoP), but is whiffing 41.7% of the time he steps up to the plate.

As a team, the D-Backs have a .335 wOBA, which is actually good for third (eighth in MLB) in the senior circuit, below the Reds (.346) and the Brewers (.340).

PITCHING:

This is where the D-Backs fall a bit short. They have the worst FIP (4.98) in the National League, which is mostly due to a league “leading” 1.46 HR/9 innings.

Among pitchers with at least 20 innings–eight guys–Aaron Heilman leads in FIP (3.84), while Dan Haren–the de facto ace–leads the staff with a K/BB of 5.07. Despite that, though, Haren’s got a 4.71 ERA (though that should come down, as he’s got a 4.10 FIP and 3.43 xFIP).

Overall, Arizona sits at 27-42 (Pythag: 28-41), as they’ve allowed 402 runs while scoring 328. The Yankees should be able to take two of three in this 2001 WS re-match, but, of course this is baseball and we can’t count wins before they happen.

The pitching matchups will be (numbers are ERA, FIP, xFIP):

Game One: A.J. Burnett (4.33/4.62/4.60) vs. Rodrigo Lopez (4.70/4.90/4.58)

Game Two: Andy Pettitte (2.47/3.80/4.06) vs. Dan Haren (4.71/4.10/3.43)

Game Three: Javier Vazquez (5.01/5.15/4.53) vs. Dontrelle Willis (4.78/4.95/5.27)

CHONE Wrap-Up

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm No Responses »
Jun 212010

Over the weekend we examined how the Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, and first-place New York Yankees were stacking up against their preseason CHONE projections.  In Tampa Bay, we saw that Evan Longoria was already outpacing his fairly aggressive (for CHONE, anyway) projection of .283/.361/.514 with 26 HR and 88 RBI, while Carlos Pena was having a difficult time walking as much as he had in the past and was registering a lower line-drive percentage.  In Boston, we begrudgingly noted that the Adrian Beltre experiment was working out perfectly for the Red Sox and the Scott Boras Corporation, but also got to take some time to laugh at John Lackey and his antebellum understanding of statistics, in particular the strikeout.  Finally, we gloried in the greatness of the AL MVP-hopeful Robinson Cano yesterday, while noting some reasons for optimism and pessimism for underperformers Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.  It is interesting to re-read this in light of Tex’s grand slam yesterday afternoon:

Now, Teixeira has been in a league of his own ineptitude this season. That’s not news to Yankees fans, and I’m not going to detail his failures.  I will simply note, by way of reference, the following reasons to expect improvement from Teixiera going forward: 1. Career low BABIP. 2. LD% largely in line with career norms. 3. Career low HR/FB ratio. I know that many authors have noted his troubles with offspeed pitches, and I’m certain that his problem is multifaceted.  But it is also good to keep in mind that he appears to be having a lousy time with things entirely out of his control.

Emphasis added.  After yesterday’s performance, Teixeira is now hitting .226/.344/.410 with a .238 BABIP (.304 career average, or C.A.), a 13.4% BB rate (2% higher than C.A.), 19.5% K rate (1% lower than C.A.), and a HR/FB ratio that is creeping back up towards normal (12.8% v. 18.5% C.A.).

That aside, I wanted to look at what CHONE projected for the entire league before the year started, and how the standings were matching up against what CHONE saw back in February.  Baseball Projection has CHONE’s 2010 preseason projected standings, and they can be found here (starting lineup version) and here (depth chart version).  For our convenience, I’ve also created a screenshot using the depth chart version:

Here are the American Legaue Standings as of this morning, June 21, courtesy of ESPN:

In the AL East, we see that CHONE probably underestimated the Rays and the Blue Jays, and overestimated the Orioles.  However, it’s difficult to imagine a projection system ever pegging a team, especially a team with as much talent as the Orioles, to go 19-50 in their first 70 games.  In the Central, CHONE’s projection for Cleveland looks just as confusing now as it was in February, as does their projection for Detroit.  It does seem to have pegged the White Sox, the Royals and the Twins, however.  In the AL West, CHONE’s projections match up perfectly with the standings: Texas, Angels, Oakland and Seattle.  The Angels are outpacing their projection slightly (as usual), and Oakland is underperforming slightly, but CHONE has the AL West nailed thus far.

To the National League, here are the standings as of today:

In the NL East, we see that CHONE has the standings projected almost perfectly, except for the Mets and the Phillies.  It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see those two teams switch spots soon, though.  In the NL Central we see everything largely matching up, except for the Brewers underplaying their projection and the Reds slightly overperforming theirs.  The Reds were my preseason sleeper team, and they had a rough weekend. There’s plenty of time for them to turn it around, but they can’t give the Cardinals too much room in that division.  The National League West is where things get the most screwy, with the teams projected to do the worst (Padres, Giants) occupying the top two slots and the Dodgers and the Rockies trailing behind.  The division is close though, so there’s plenty of time for things to continue to fluctuate.  There does not appear to be any hope, however, for our current opponent, the Diamondbacks.  May we add to their misery.

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The Case for Cooperstown: Tim Raines

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 7 Responses »
Jun 212010

The first baseball glove I remember having was a small black one that I used from age eight to age twelve or so. It was black and had a red tag on the side that said “Signature Series.” The signature inside my glove was that of Tim Raines. It was in gold colored cursive and didn’t just say his name, but included his nickname: Tim “Rock” Raines. It wasn’t until just recently that I realized how good a player my first glove’s namesake was.

Rock had a .294/.385/.425/.810/123+ line for his career and led the league in steals four times, runs twice, and average and on base percentage once. He is fifth on the all time steals list with 808 and owns a fantastic SB% of about 85% (84.6960 to be more exact). His wOBA is a solid .374 and his wRC+ is also solid at 137.

For my fellow WAR Hawks out there (can we make this a real term, people?), Raines ranks 81st all time with 64.9 Wins Above Replacement. That puts him ahead of 82 Hall of Fame players, which is incredibly impressive considering his -105 position adjustment. Basically, Raines was so valuable because he did the getting-on-base thing before it was en vogue (suck it, Jim Rice). Raines is 41st all time in Times on Base with 3,977, ahead of guys like Tony Gwynn, Nap Lajoie, Lou Brock, Mike Schmidt, Richie Ashburn, Roberto Alomar, Billy Williams, and Eddie Mathews.

Tim Raines was a player who played at a high level for a long time and he should be rewarded for it. He did the best thing a player can do: avoid making outs. He did that for a long time and should be rewarded for that with a plaque in Cooperstown.

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