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Discussion: Yankee All-Stars

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:35 pm No Responses »
Jun 162010

We have had a lot of discussion here at TYU over the last few days regarding the All Star game and whether certain Yankees players should be chosen to attend this year’s contest. I wanted to create a thread where everyone could log their choices for Yankee All-Stars. Simply put, imagine fans did not vote on the game, and you were starting the team with a blank slate. Which Yankees would make your roster, and why? If someone who is generally considered a good candidate is not on your list, why not? I will get us started with my list of 5 Yankee All-Stars and one borderline pick (And yes, Honorable Congressman Mondesi, I know there is still time for this to change).

All-Stars

1) Phil Hughes: As Stephen noted this morning, 3.11 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, and 9 wins. He has been one of the 4 or 5 best pitchers in the AL.

2) Robinson Cano: As Matt outlines in the post below this one, Cano is a legitimate MVP candidate. With his 3.8 WAR placing him second in all of baseball, he is an easy pick.

3) Derek Jeter: Derek is second among all MLB shortstops with 2 WAR, just behind Troy Tulowitzki. He’s had a slightly down year by his standards, but is still the class of the AL at his position.

4) Mariano Rivera: Mo is still the class of the AL relief class, with numbers (1.21 ERA,.63 WHIP) that stack up well against all of the other relief contenders. Another easy choice.

5) Nick Swisher: Swisher leads all AL outfielders at 149 OPS+ and has been a solid defensive player. He has avoided the sort of defensive miscues and baserunning errors that plagued him at times in 2009, and has therefore been able to remain in the good graces of the more finicky elements of the fanbase.

Borderline

1) Andy Pettitte: I happen to agree with Stephen that Pettitte misses the cut, but I think it is quite close. He could easily work his way up the list with a few more good starts.

2) Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez: Both are 3rd in WAR in the AL at their respective positions, but I doubt Joe Girardi will take more than 6 Yankees, and the others are simply more deserving.

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Cano an Early MVP Candidate

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm No Responses »
Jun 162010

I'm really good at baseball

Robinson Cano is hitting really well this year. Not including last night’s 1-5 performance, he’s got a .438 wOBA which is the fifth best mark in baseball. It leads all second basemen by .038 points (Kelly Johnson, .400). He also leads second basemen in average (the majors as well), OBP, SLG, OPS, wRC, and wRAA.

In terms of WAR–FanGraphs version–Robbie Cano and his 3.8 WAR are second only in all of baseball to Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau and his 4.1 WAR. These two have definitely been the best hitters in the Majors all year, and as we start to come to the second half of the season, it’s likely these two will be in the same position by season’s end.

For what it’s worth, ZIPS has Cano posting a .373 wOBA from here on out, ending with a .400 mark for the season. Morneau’s projected for a .404 wOBA the rest of the way, which would result in a .429 wOBA. Using methodology and assuming the same fielding–plus 2.3 for Robbie, plus 6.4 for Morneau– Cano could end up being worth 6.02 WAR, with Morneau being worth 6.96. As they are now, they’ll likely be close with a slight edge to Morneau.

But, as we all know, projections are just projections. Both players could soar from here on out, both players could tank from here on out, one could rise, one could soar…you get the idea. As of right now, they’ve been the two most valuable players in the league and it’s hard to argue that. These guys are both talented enough to be in the very same position come awards season.

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The All-Stars: AL Starting Pitchers

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 8 Responses »
Jun 162010

Yesterday’s debate over my Andy Pettitte piece was for the most part informative and conversational.  Sure, there are some people that think the W-L record is an important way to figure out “who’s good at bearing down”, but for the most part we were able to have a good discussion about what stats were the most appropriate for evaluating who should be in the All-Star Game.  Prompted by one commenter who questioned my inclusion of James Shields, given his 4.55 ERA and his 1.41 WHIP, I promised a more thorough examination of the pitchers that I considered to be the best.  Upon further review, Shields missed the cut.  To the list we go!

1. Francisco Liriano: 2.90 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 2.95 xFIP.  Has struck out 9.71 K/9 batters per nine innings, and has a 4.14 K/BB ratio. He’s been dominant, and his peripherals suggest his start is as good as it seems at first glance.  You could make the case that Cliff Lee has been as good as Liriano, but I’ll take the flashier K rate any day.  Liriano gets my #1 slot.

2. Cliff Lee.  2.88 ERA, 1.93 FIP, 2.95 xFIP.  Cliff Lee has struck out 7.86 batters per nine, and has an incredible 15.00 K/BB ratio in 68 innings.  You read that correctly.  In 68 innings, Cliff Lee has struck out 60 batters and walked 4, and his 0.52 BB/9 rate is the best among American League starters.  It’s true that he missed most of April, but he’s made 9 starts already and has pitched almost as many innings as Phil Hughes. It’s been a masterful start for Lee.

3. Jered Weaver.  3.29 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 3.48 xFIP.  Weaver has quietly put together an excellent 87 innings, striking out 9.86 batters per nine innings and walking only 2.36 batters per nine innings.  His 4.17 K/BB ratio is fourth best, behind Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke and James Shields.  In the comments yesterday, bexy noted that Weaver will be the hometown kid at the All-Star Game in Anaheim and should be considered for the start.  While Liriano and Lee have been better than Weaver, I’d agree with that sentiment.

4. Phil Hughes. 3.11 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 3.70 xFIP.  The xFIP is higher because of an abnormally low HR rate.  That said, Hughes has still been dominant with an 8.84 K/9 rate, a 2.66 BB/9 rate and a 3.36 K/BB ratio.  Hughes has been the best pitcher on the Yankees.  I wish it was 2011 already and he had no innings cap.

5. Jon Lester.  My preseason AL Cy Young pick has pitched very well after a rough start.  He has a 3.18 ERA and his FIP is 3.09, fourth-best in the American League.  Over 85 innings he has posted a K/9 of 9.42 and a BB/9 of 3.81, which leaves him with a K/BB ratio of 2.47.

6. Ricky Romero. 3.29 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.23 FIP.  Gotta love it when those three line up neatly, it makes my job easier.  Over 90 innings, Romero has a K/9 of 9.07 and a K/BB of 3.39, which leaves him with a K/BB ratio of 2.68.  His BABIP, strand rates and other peripherals all seem largely in line with past norms, which can only lead to the conclusion that Romero’s great start is no illusion.  Give the man his dues.

7. Justin Verlander.  In 13 starts and 86 innings, Verlander has a 3.56 ERA, a 3.28 FIP and a 4.15 xFIP.  The xFIP is higher because of an artificially low HR/FB% of 4.9%. He’s striking out batters at a rate of 7.74 per nine and walking batters at a 3.24 BB/9 clip, which leaves him with a K/BB ratio of 2.39.8.

8. Felix Hernandez.  3.61 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 3.61 xFIP.  He’s striking out 8.38 batters per nine innings and walking 3.14 per nine, slightly up from his 2009 mark of 2.68.  It’s another solid start for King Felix, and he’d be my final selection for the All-Star Game.

The Just-Missed List

9. Shaun Marcum.  Another underrated Blue Jay, Marcum has a 6.53 K/9 and a fifth-best BB/9 of 1.75.  His 3.72 K/BB ratio is 7th best, right behind Carl Pavano (gag).  In 14 starts, Marcum has logged 92 innings and has put together a 3.31 ERA, a 3.48 FIP and an xFIP of 4.06.  His performance is impressive for someone coming off Tommy John surgery, in particular his ability to control the walks.  He’s my “last out” All-Star.

10. John Danks.  Danks has a 3.27 ERA and an eight-best 3.31 FIP.  Like Verlander, Danks’ xFIP (4.17) is higher, thanks to a low HR/FB ratio is 4.6%. Despite that, Danks has K/9 and BB/9 rates of 7.13 and3.16, respectively, which gives him K/BB ratio of 2.26.

11. Andy Pettitte.  We went through this yesterday, but to summarize: 2.46 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 4.09 xFIP.  High strand rates and a low BABIP suggest some luck has come into play, and Pettitte has a K rate of 6.16 per nine, a BB rate of 2.46 per nine, and a K/BB ratio of 2.5, good for 24th best in the American League. I’m ranking him higher than Buchholz, despite having a higher FIP, because of his ability to limit the walks.

12. Clay Buchholz.  This piece on FanGraphs does a good job of analyzing Buchholz’s season thus far.  Buchholz has an ERA of 2.67, a FIP of 3.42 and an xFIP of 4.20.  His K rate is down from past seasons at 6.19, and his BB/9 is 3.63, leaving him with a somewhat mediocre K/BB ratio of 1.71.

13. James Shields.  Over 85 innings, Shields has posted a 4.55 ERA, a 3.89 FIP and a 3.39 xFIP.  It’s worth noting that his total number of earned runs allowed is 43, and that 17 of them came in two disastrous starts against the White Sox and Marlins.  This isn’t to say that those two outings shouldn’t count against him.  They should.  It merely contextualizes his year slightly. Shields has a 8.68 K/9 and a 2.01 BB/9, and his 4.32 K/BB ratio is third-best in the American League.  Despite that, I can’t get past his ugly ERA.  I overrated Shields the first time around, and he’s fallen down my list.

14. Doug Fister. Fister has the second-best ERA in the American League with 2.45.  His FIP stands at 3.66 and his xFIP is 4.23.  Fister also has the fifth worst K/9 rate (4.13) amongst qualified AL starters, but his BB/9 (1.29) is second-best, behind Cliff Lee.  He’s an anomaly, and while his BABIP (.240) suggests that some correction is coming, he’s managed to get results thus far in 2010.  To be honest, I can’t figure out where to put him on the 9-15 list because his performance is so odd.  Do you really want someone with a K/9 lower than his xFIP on the All-Star team?  Maybe he should earn a spot because of that.  I can’t decide.

15. David Price. Price is the cause celebre of ERA and W-L enthusiasts, thanks to his  2.31 ERA and his 10-2 record.  Far be it from me to rain on his parade, but I’m not overly enthused about everything else.  His FIP is 3.87 and his strikeout and walk rates (6.72 and 3.68, respectively) leave him with a K/BB of 1.83.  This is good, not great.

Honorable Mentions: Zack Greinke, Jeff Niemann, Jason Vargas, Carl Pavano and Colby Lewis.

At the end of the day, I understand the argument posed by Moshe in the comments of my post about Pettitte.  ERA shouldn’t be ignored, as it stands as an historical record of what actually occurred.  Since the All-Star Game is ostensibly about celebrating and showcasing the best players of the first half of the year, it would be unwise to simply look at projection stats like xFIP and select the players that we expect should have done the best.  I buy this, and it’s why I chose Price over Greinke for the last spot despite the fact that they have identical FIPs.

At the same time, we should not conflate stats like FIP with projection.  Like ERA and WHIP, FIP shows how well a pitcher has done at controlling things like strikeouts, walks and home runs.  It certainly has weaknesses.  xFIP was created, among other reasons, when later research demonstrated that pitcher’s don’t have the ability to control their HR/FB rate.  Regardless, FIP shows is something, and it shows us something real.  Despite what some of the commenters yesterday suggested, ERA is no more “real” than FIP.  It has simply been around longer and is ingrained in our consciousness.  But simply because we’re used to it doesn’t make it better, and it doesn’t mean our analysis should stop there.

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Platoon split? What platoon split?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Jun 162010

Coming in to 2010, we all weren’t sure if Brett Gardner was going to be an everyday player. In 2009, he posted a .337 wOBA, an average mark, but it was in just 284 plate appearances. Through 232 this year, not including last night’s win versus the Phillies in which Gardner tripled and singled, he has a .382 wOBA. That’s really, really solid. But, it does come with the caveat of being in just 232 PAs. We’ve yet to see Gardner reach even 300 PAs in a season, so we’re really unsure as to how good he really is. I don’t think he’s .382 wOBA good, but I also think he’s better than .337 wOBA good. I’d expect Gardner to be solidly in the middle of that, around .340-.350, mostly due to an improved walk rate of 11.6%. Regardless, Gardner’s impressed this year and I hope he can keep it up.

Perhaps the biggest question facing Gardner coming in to this season was whether or not he’d be able to handle left handed pitching. When Gardner was routinely platooned early in the season, we naturally assumed that he wouldn’t get much of a chance to prove himself. Well, we were likely wrong to think that.

In 2008, Gardner looked woeful against lefties, wOBAing just .112 against them (-45 wRC+). In 2009, though, Gardner had a reverse platoon split. He posted a weak .312 wOBA against righty pitchers in the Yankees’ championship year, but put up a solid .350 wOBA against lefties. That trend has continued in 2010. He may not have a reverse platoon split this year (.376 wOBA vs. RHP), but he’s still hitting well against lefties with a .349 wOBA.

During the game last night, one of the color guys–I can’t remember if it was Paul O’Neill or Al Lieter–wondered if Gardner would be platooned with recent call up Chad Huffman. Michael Kay disagreed, though he didn’t bring up these numbers (duh). In a rare move, I’m going to agree with Kay. There’s absolutely no need to platoon Gardner at this point. Until he proves otherwise, he’s an every day player.

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Underreported Yankee Notes

Posted by Steve S. at 7:40 am 8 Responses »
Jun 162010

This is something I’ll be adding to my other regular feature “Keeping up with the ex-Yanks”. Many Yankee stories get covered to death, but then there are others seem to fly under the radar. Anything that could impact the Yanks, from rumblings in the trade market to a hot prospect in the minors will be covered here, bullet point style.

-Andrew Brackman has put himself back on the prospect map. After a horrendous season last year and rough start this year, he’s finally putting things together.  He’s throwing strikes (7 BB in 55 IP) and his velocity is back up after being down last year.

-Since coming back from elbow surgery, Dellin Betances has been dealin’. He’s pitched twice, allowing  1 Run and walking only 1 while striking out 13 in 12.0 IP. He’s had stretches like this before (2nd half of 2008)  only to fall back again, although we later learned his elbow was hurting. If he and Brackman can keep it up, will we finally have the ‘Twin Towers’ we all drooled over? Stay tuned.

-Francisco Cervelli has continued to be good in clutch spots for the Yanks. He had a 2-run single last night and is 6-8 on the season with the Bases loaded. While his RISP numbers (.447) are bound to regress, a slap hitter like him figures to do well when infielders are holding runners on base. So you have to like his chances in those situations.

-Peter Gammons is reporting that Arizona plans to have a fire sale this trade deadline where they’ll shave about 25 mil off payroll (h/t NYBD). The Yanks don’t want anyone from that bullpen, which is the worst in Baseball, but some of their other players could be fits for the Sox or Rays. Haren is on Minnesota’s wish list as well.

-Jon Albaladejo has been destroying AAA. He’s reinvented himself, featuring a 4-seamer that he goes up the ladder with and a knee bucking curve. But the Yanks don’t seem overly impressed, opting to call up Boone Logan yesterday instead of Alby or Royce Ring.

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