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Jun 142010

As the Yankees enjoy today’s off-day, let’s take a look at the week ahead.

On Tuesday, the Phillies come to the Bronx for a three-game set.  The Phillies, which hail from the city that has now lost two major sports titles in the past calendar year, are currently in third-place in the NL East, 3.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves, but only two games back in the loss column.  The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games, and come off a series in Boston in which they dropped 2 of 3.  On Tuesday, the Yankees will send CC Sabathia to the hill to face off against Roy Halladay.  I’m certain that at least one TV commentator will refer to it as a “potential Game 1 World Series matchup”.  I’m equally certain that this will annoy me, but I can’t seem to pin down why that is.  The following evening, the Phillies will send Kyle Kendrick to face AJ Burnett.  This game has the misfortune of being shown on ESPN and my heart goes out to all of you who have to listen to Joe Morgan.  The man is a national disgrace.  The last game of the series features Jamie Moyer and Andy Pettitte, who have a combined age of over 175 years, approximately.  Obviously anything can happen, but the latter two matchups are very favorable for the Yankees and if they are able to win the first game I will be vociferously calling for the sweep.

When the Phillies leave town, the Yankees will host the crosstown Mets.  The Mets are currently 35-28, one game ahead of the Phillies and a game and a half behind the Braves.  Winners of their last four straight, the Mets are 8-2 in their last 10 games and sport a +36 run differential, second-best in their division.  This is much better than I expected from this team.  Interestingly, they are better at home than on the road.  At Citi Field, the Mets are 24-10.  Everywhere else, they are 11-18.  This series will feature rematches of every pitching matchup from the last Subway Series in May.  On Friday night, the Yankees will send Javier Vazquez to face Hisanori Takahashi.  Last time they faced off, neither Takahashi nor Vazquez gave up a run, but the Yankees scored off the Mets’ bullpen and won 2-1.  On Saturday, the Yankees will send Hughes to the mound against Mike Pelfrey.  Last time they met, Pelfrey outdueled Hughes and the Mets won 5-3.  The final matchup of the weekend will feature Johan Santana and CC Sabathia, as well as commentary from every Yankees outlet on the time the Yankees almost dealt for Johan Santana.  To me, the storyline is getting a bit stale, which is why I am starting the completely false rumor that Cashman was prepared to part with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes for Santana, but balked at the Twins’ demand that he include Melky Cabrera.  Now that would be interesting.  Last time Santana and Sabathia faced off, Santana won and the Mets took the series.  Hopefully this weekend will be different.

The Yankees feasted on the Orioles and the Astros last week and now face more of a challenge in the Phillies and the Mets.  I will continue to be very pleased if they can win 2 of 3, especially against the Phillies.  I don’t know if it was the World Series, but Philadelphia has quickly become my second most-hated sports city.  I think you can probably guess the first.

The Cost

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Jun 142010

It is May 28 and you are about to go 17 days without watching a Yankees game.  First you are going to move across town and not have cable hooked up in your new apartment.  Then you are going to have an unscheduled, last minute trip out of town as soon as your move is done.  You’ll return to New York for one night, and go on a scheduled vacation for 8 days.  You are going to have a great time.

This will be easy.  You’ve done this before.   Baseball has been a part of your life for as long as you could walk, but you have the winter every year, don’t you?  Yes, you do. You go months and months without having baseball in your life every winter and you have not died.  Not even once.  Sure, you have your blogs and you have mlbtraderumors.com and you’re still connected, but there’s no first pitch in December.  There’s no game after work in February.  This will be easy, right?

For the first week, you still have your iPhone.  Your iPhone is your gateway to baseball information and you run the battery down a few times a day.  You are in the United States and you have 3G.  This is almost as good as watching a game.  You’re feeling fine, and then you board the plane, turn off data roaming and land in another country.  You can make and receive calls.  You can send and receive texts.  That is all.  You twitch(?)  Was that a twitch?

After being connected to the Yankees, to every score, every game, every roster move and machination, to the news cycle, to blogs and to Twitter, you have nothing and you are feeling just a bit disoriented.  You would have to pay the equivalent of a month’s rent to AT&T if you wanted to turn on data and check out TweetDeck and the MLB app and your fantasy team on your iPhone, and while you’re pretty sure it would be worth it, you’re more certain your wife would kill you and dump your body in the ocean.  You will settle for CNN International on the hotel room’s television, hoping and praying for a box score on the bottom line to find out if the team won. You’re drinking data through a coffee stirrer and you’re used to a Big Gulp.   Forget checking WPA graphs on Fangraphs after the game; forget looking at all 15 box scores of each game; forget reading the postgame comments and previewing the next day’s game.  No, you will settle for a final score and be happy if the Yankees won.  You are bargaining with CNN International like you’re in the third stage of grief.

CNN International will not have the box scores for Major League Baseball.  For the first time in as long as you can remember you go to bed not knowing if the team won or lost, forgetting all those interminable West Coast games that you skipped.  You will feel sorry for yourself.

In a few days something weird will happen to you.  You’ll discover a New Normal.  You will start to feel, just a bit, like Bubs in the opening lede from that episode of The Wire, the one where he comes down from his heroin high and is finally clean.  He starts to hear the birds chirp and the trees rustle and realizes that there’s a beautiful world out there.  You will feel guilty and very weird for likening your baseball information addiction to a hardcore drug addiction, but you will not feel that it is entirely misplaced.

You will get five minutes on the hotel lobby’s computer one morning and you will split your time between glancing over your email and looking at the box score from last night’s game.  You will wonder about the K/BB ratios of the Yankees’ starters.  This will be all the Yankees you will have for 24 hours.  You will feel OK, and you will be happy the team is winning.  You won’t check Twitter once.  One morning you will find out about last night’s game from the USA Today, which is an actual newspaper.  You will recall that this is what you used to do when you were six years old.

You will come to dread returning.  Like getting sunburned, you will wear the vacationers’ badge of honor when you wax nostalgic about the simple life, about “unplugging”, about getting disconnected and reorienting your brain and reading books and feeling the sun.  You will be typical.  You will think that you would be OK without your iPhone.  You will not be so stupid as to say the same about the Yankees, and you will wonder if they are going to manage a sweep of the Astros and wonder whether they can finally close that gap on the Rays.  When you land at JFK Airport, you won’t turn your phone on right away.  You will feel proud of yourself.  You will wonder if you’ve actually missed anything after all.

The next day you won’t have an answer and you will not know what to write about.  You will have 1000+ unread items in Google Reader. You will feel like an amateur.  You will have half a dozen false starts about the team’s progress while you’re gone, and you will feel stilted and forced. You will say what’s on your heart and hope that it is good enough.

Here at TYU, we like to branch out of the Yankee realm every so often and bring you content relating to the non-Yankee teams in baseball. This series, which we’re calling the Case for Cooperstown Series, will deal with some non-Yankees and, obviously, their cases for Cooperstown.

I’m leading off here with everyone’s favorite HOF case, Bert Blyleven. I have a good feeling that I’ll be preaching to the choir when I say this, but Bert Blyleven should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Bert owns a career 287-250 record (more on this in a bit), a 3.31 ERA (118 ERA+), a 1.198 WHIP, a 2.80 K/BB, and a 3.19 FIP. These are very good numbers. In more terms of counting stats, he’s got 3,701 strikeouts, fifth most in the history of the game. He has the 14th most innings pitched in history (4,970) and the 9th most shutouts in history (60). It’s worth noting that he gave up the 8th most homers ever (430), but he still overcame that to have a good FIP; that’s what a lot of strikeouts and not too many walks will do for you.

In terms of pitcher WAR, Bert is 13th all time. He is the only eligible pitcher in the top 25 not currently in the Hall of Fame (Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, and Pedro Martinez are obviously not eligible yet). So, basically, Blyleven was more valuable that almost each HOF pitcher in baseball. This sort of longevity is remarkable and should be rewarded.

Now, a lot of people think that longevity allowed Blyleven to “compile” his stats. That is, he was just okay for a long period of time, so his numbers look better than they really are. Let’s look more deeply into that…

Category/Times finished in the top ten:
ERA: 10
ERA+: 12
WHIP: 11
IP: 11
K/9: 14
K: 15
K/BB: 16

So, for the majority of his career, Blyleven was a top pitcher in his league. Now, he also appeared in the top ten for losses a handful of times. Let’s look at this years…

In 1971-4 and 1976, Blyelven had between 15-17 losses each year, despite ERAs under three. His ERA+ numbers in those years: 126, 119, 158 (led league), 142, 125 (116 w/Min, 131 w/Tex). His FIPs those years? 2.51, 2.63, 2.32, 2.37, 2.71. It’s clear that Blyelven was doing his part, but he wasn’t getting much support. In those seasons of 15+ losses with ERAs under three, Bert’s average run support was 3.64. His career run support was 3.77. That’s not a lot of support. At all. Want more proof? Rich Lederer, please:

Rich Lederer, a baseball analyst and historian, studied Blyleven’s career and estimates that if he had received even league-average run support, his record would be closer to 313-224 than his 287-250.

Blyleven was victimized by some pretty bad teams and if he’d even had just league average offensive production from those guys behind him, he’d've had a bunch more wins. That “magic” 300, or lack thereof, is getting in his way and it’s pretty unfair. As you can see by his numbers, mainly his ERA+ and FIP numbers, Blyleven did what he could to help his teams win. But, as in every sport, one man can only carry a team so far.

Blyleven pitched a lot of innings as a great pitcher. Those things should get you into the Hall of Fame. Bert Blyleven should be in the Hall of Fame.

Jun 142010

With Alex on the shelf for the past few days, fans and pundits are beginning to wonder out loud if he will ever be the dominating player we saw in the past. Radio show hosts have wondered aloud how much he has left. My buddy Mike Silva from NYBD penned a piece this morning that asks if that contract will wind up being an albatross around the neck of the Yankees for years to come.

I wouldn’t be burying Alex’s status as a dominant offensive player just yet. We were just saying similar things about Derek Jeter a month ago, and now he’s playing great, turned things around and we find out that something was going on with his hamstring. When players are banged up they can look old at any age, and clearly something was going on with Alex. The Yanks were reportedly upset at him for not telling them sooner. As far as aging goes, Alex’s work ethic is second to none. So if anyone figures to age well, it’s him.

Another thing to remember about Alex is his contract was front-loaded, where he made 32 mil per year in 2009-10 and then glides downward to 20 per by the end of the deal. Here’s the info-

(Age 32)2008:$27M, (33)2009:$32M, (34)2010:$32M, (35)2011:$31M, (36)2012:$29M, (37)2013:$28M, (38)2014:$25M, (39)2015:$21M, (40)2016:$20M, (41)2017:$20M

While I was never a fan of the contract, assuming some Baseball salary inflation and that Alex shows up for the entire deal, it’s not awful. Also, it’s the Yankees were talking about here, who have by far the highest revenues in the sport. If anyone can carry a 39 year old OF/DH who’s making 21 mil per year, it’s them.

Next, the injury wasn’t in the same area as the surgery according to the Yanks. Here’s what Yankee manager Joe Girardi said on Saturday:

“I think anytime you get where you’re looking in that region, you’re going to start thinking about what happened the year before,” Girardi said on Saturday. “But being something completely different than the hip socket makes you feel a lot better.”

Finally, some have looked at his numbers from last year (post surgery) and think it’s reflective of a diminish player. It’s not, it’s reflective of diminished playing time. He missed roughly 1/4 of the season last year rehabbing from his hip surgery, and played just 124 games (535 PA). A typical season from Alex would be 150-155 games played and around 675 PA. He posted a line of 30 HRs 100RBIs and a triple slash of .286/.402/.532. His career triple slash in his time with the Yankees is .299/.400/.566. I highlighted ‘time with the Yankees’ for a reason, you can’t compare his career numbers that included playing home games in the hitter’s havens of Texas and Seattle (pre-Safeco). As a Righthander hitting in Yankee Stadium, we all knew his numbers would suffer a bit, but seem to have forgotten that since he’s had hip surgery. His 147  OPS+ from last year was higher than 2004 or 2006 seasons with the Yanks, and equal to that of his final year in Texas at age 27. Also, if you pro-rate his HR/RBI numbers from last year over a full season, you get 38 HRs and 125 RBIs, which is a fairly typical year for Alex in pinstripes. Pro-rating his number from this year, you would get 24 HRs and 129 RBIs. One good week of hitting HRs and he will be on pace to have a typical A-Rod year. Lets also not forget the monster postseason he had last year, post surgery.

What I suspect is going on here is that things are going so well with the Yanks, that were digging for things to worry about. But personally, I’m not worried about Alex one bit.

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