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Comparing Hughes' Last Two Starts

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 2 Responses »
Jun 302010

Last night was the first start under the “Hughes Rules” and it did not go well. Phil gave up ten hits, seven runs (six earned), with two walks and three strikeouts in 5.2 innings. Let’s examine his last start before the extended rest–6/19 vs. the Mets–and his start last night through the ever friendly Pitch F/X lens.

In the start against the Mets, Hughes went seven innings on 99 pitches which averages out to just over 14 per inning. Last night, Hughes tossed five and two thirds while using 73 pitches, again just over 14 per inning. Let’s look at what pitches he threw.

June 19: 71 four seamers, 2 changeups, 15 curves, 9 cutters, and 2 two seamers.
June 29: 49 four seamers, 2 changeups, 12 curves, 13 cutters, and 9 two seamers.

I’m assuming those two seamers are mislabeled cutters. One of my peeves with Phil this year has been his inability/refusal to mix in non-fastballs, but in the last two games, he’s done a much better job of doing so than before. I’m glad he’s been able to do that and I hope it’s a trend that continues. The changeup still isn’t prominent, but that he got two swings and misses on it last night is very encouraging. Hopefully that gives him confidence in it and he starts to throw it more, especially with two strikes.

In terms of velocity, not much changed. His average fastball velocity last night was 92.46. On the 19th, it was 92.12. For the season, it’s been 92.4. The time off clearly did not affect Phil’s ability to throw hard.

Let’s now to command of the different pitches.

Last night:

June 19:

The four seamer last night is the first thing I notice. There were many fewer fastballs that ended up near the corners than during the game with the Mets. A lot of them ended up over the heart of the plate and that led to Hughes getting hit hard. The location on his curveball, though, seemed better last night as they were more towards the bottom of the zone.

I wasn’t exactly sure what I’d be looking for when I ventured on this post, but I just wanted to look at Phil’s last two starts side-by-side. Honestly, in terms of the Pitch F/X, they don’t look all that different. His fastball location was a little off last night, though, and because of that, he got hit much harder against the Mariners (ironically enough) than he did against the Mets.

In ending this, I do not think that the layoff had anything to do with Phil scuffling last night. Sometimes, a guy just doesn’t have it. Since that monster outing against the Tigers–7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K–Hughes has been struggling. Since that time, he’s got a 5.40 ERA, given up 10.43 H/9, and 1.3 HR/9. He has walked only 2.42/9 and has a 3.23 K/BB, though, so I’m not completely worried. I have every confidence that Hughes can regain some form and pitch better from here on out.

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Nick Swisher's Weird Year

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:02 pm 29 Responses »
Jun 302010

swisssshhhhhhhhhhh

Nick Swisher has had something of a scorching first half.  In 305 plate appearances, he’s knocked 13 home runs and 47 RBI with a batting average of .292 and an on-base and slugging percentage of .372 and .517, respectively.  If you prefer the more advanced stats, Swisher has the second-best wOBA in the AL amongst right-fielders with .385 and the sixth-best amongst all AL outfielders.  It’s an All-Star year for Swisher, and I’d like to take this moment to publicly thank Kenny Williams, once again, for being unable to evaluate stats like BABIP and concepts like “don’t sell low”.  Without you, Kenny, none of this would have been possible.

Digging beneath the surface, we see two equal and opposing statistical oddities at work in Swisher.  On one hand, his walk percentage has dropped to 10% this year, down from his 2009 rate of 16% and his career rate of 13%.   This is in large part due to his newfound free-swinging tendencies.  Swisher is chasing balls out of the zone 8% more frequently than he has in his career, and and is swinging at pitches in general 5% more often.  The odd part, though, is that he’s making contact with these pitches: his contact on pitches outside the zone is up 10%, and his overall contact percentage is up 5%.  In other words, Swisher is swinging with reckless abandon and making contact as he wills.  It’s hard to blame him so far in 2010.  Once he puts these pitches in play, they’re dunking in for hits 33.5% of the time.  This BABIP is almost 100 points higher than it was in 2008 when he played for the White Sox, and a solid 50 points higher than his career average.  Given that, it would be reasonable to conclude that Swisher is getting a bit of luck, and that his tripleslash stats are being propped up accordingly.

HOWEVER, Swisher isn’t getting any luck in the HR/FB department, averaging 14%, which represents a decrease of 3% from 2009 and 0.8% off his career average.  Of his 13 home runs, Hit Tracker shows that 5 of them would have been home runs in every major league park, 5 would have been out in the overwhelming majority of major league parks, and only three were either wind or park-aided, or “lucky”.  Additionally, Swisher has increased his line-drive percentage a full five percentage points from 2009, and three points up from his career average.  This has come exclusively at the expense of ground balls.

So on one hand you have a new, free-swinging Swisher who is making contact with everything and getting lucky on balls in play.  On the other hand, he’s hitting the ball with more authority and not getting very many cheap home runs.  What does one make of this?  Well, his luck on balls in play might abate some, but given his increase in LD% it might be unwarranted to expect a precipitous collapse.  If his BABIP decreases, though, his free-swinging ways wouldn’t seem so cute anymore.  His batting average is what’s propping up his on-base percentage, and so Swisher could be looking at an OBP of .340-.350 range. Still, Swisher is hammering the ball in 2010.  It’s looking like a career year for the man once traded for Wilson Betemit.

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The Case for Cooperstown: Jorge Posada

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 9 Responses »
Jun 302010

It’s always tricky to engage in a player’s Hall of Fame merits when he’s still playing if his case is not slam-dunk in either the positive or negative direction. Such is true of Yankee backstop, Jorge Posada. At first thought, most may not make the leap to say Posada is worthy of enshrinement in the baseball Hall of Fame, mostly because his numbers are solid, not gaudy. However, like most things in terms of baseball analysis, this requires a closer inspection.

Since making his debut as a defensive replacement back in 1995, Jorge leads all catchers in a number of categories including at bats, hits, doubles, home runs, runs batted in, total bases, and walks. This is partially because most catchers don’t last fifteen years in the majors, but it’s also a testament to Jorge’s consistency (Copyright: Joe Morgan).

In a season of at least 200 plate appearances, Posada has just once put up an OPS+ of under 100 (91 in 1999, career 124). Likewise, he’s never put up a wRC+ of less than 100 with the same qualifications, except in 1999 (96). This is getting repetitive, but he’s also never had a wOBA below .340 except in 1999. So, despite some shaky defense and lead feet, Jorge has managed to stay behind the plate for a long time and put up some excellent offensive numbers.

That’s just the general case, now let’s look at some more specific numbers.

Against the other HOF Catchers, Jorge beats five of them in OPS+ and six of them in WAR per season (3.05 for Jorge, which sells him short a bit since that number includes 2010 as a season, though it is incomplete and puts him at only 1.3 WAR) and in terms of raw WAR, Posada bests 19 current Hall of Fame players.

Always on teams with star-studded lineups, Posada has flown somewhat under the radar during his career, but that fact doesn’t make Jorge’s career any less impressive. A 124 OPS+, a .371 wOBA, a 128 wRC+, and a .204 IsoP across fifteen years would be great for a player at any position. That Jorge has put up those numbers at catcher makes him look quite remarkable. Five years after Posada retires, he should wind up with a plaque in Cooperstown, New York.

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Question for the MSM

Posted by Steve S. at 6:52 am 3 Responses »
Jun 302010

Since Dave Eiland was the reason for pitchers NOT pitching well in his absence, do we now get to BLAME him for bad outings now that he’s back?

Fair’s fair, you know.

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Gardner's Injury Coming at a Bad Time

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jun 292010

Allow me to play captain obvious for a second: it’s never a good time for a player to get injured.

This, however, is a particularly bad time for Brett Gardner to suffer a setback, even if it is just a day-to-day injury.

In June, Gardner is hitting a ridiculous .383/.424/.533/1.006 with a fantastic wOBA. The year’s sixth month has seen Gardner put up highs just about every statistic so a bump in the road is clearly unwelcome.

Delving deeper into the splits, there’s one trend I like: Brett Gardner’s walk rate has been improving each month. It started off at a solid 9.5 in April, rose to double digits in May, and has gone all the way up to 12.5% so far in June. One of the most important aspects of Gardner’s game is his ability to get on base and prior to 2010, this was a question mark because of his lack of power and relative abundance of strikeouts. It’s worth noting that Gardner’s strikeout rate has been on the rise each month, but if he keeps the walk rate up, I’ll take it.

Speaking of power, Gardner’s IsoP, which is never going to be very high, has also climbed upwards since the beginning of the season. We likely won’t see any more power from Gardner going forward, but if he can keep that Iso above .100, I’ll be happy.

Let’s take a closer look at where Brett’s balls are falling when they dunk in for hits. June comes first:

As we can see, when Gardner goes oppo, good things happen. By that count, Gardner’s got 23 hits in June and more than half of them have gone to center or left field.

Looking at the season-wide chart below, we see a similar trend:

While the hits are more distributed, there’s still a decent concentration of hits to left field. As for Brett’s outs, both the June chart and the season chart show us a lot of outs in the infield. This likely comes from Gardner’s very downward-plane-swing that produces a lot of chops at the ball (his relative lack of hip movement could lead to this too). If there’s one thing that frustrates me about Gardner, it is his swing. I’ve commented on it before, but who am I to be complaining when it’s working for him?

With Gardner, I’ve always been cautiously optimistic. His swing and the holes in his game made him seem unlikely to have much success at the Major League level. At the same time, though, he’s shown the ability to adjust at each and every level and thus far, the majors have been no different. Brett has shown a ton of improvement this season and hopefully, he continues on this trend to be a solid ML player.

Photo Credit: Robert Occhialini, @bump on Twitter; Bump on Flickr.

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On Anonymous Sources

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Jun 292010

Those of you that follow me on Twitter know that I have recently been railing against the cloud of misinformation surrounding the impending NBA free agency season. On the same day, anonymous sources will be the basis for reports that have LeBron James going to Miami, Chicago, and New York. Conflicting reports continue to emerge, with “sources familiar with his thinking” and “people in the industry with knowledge of the situation” popping up everywhere. With the insanity reaching a fever pitch this week, ESPN ombudsman Don Ohlmeyer chimed in on the use of anonymous sources:

There is no question that some of America’s most important stories could never have been told without relying on sources who don’t want their names revealed: Watergate, the Pentagon Papers, Guantánamo, etc. In earlier times, unnamed sources were used judiciously and required corroboration. But in the current atmosphere of instantaneous information, it seems that caution too often can be thrown to the wind, along with the confidence of the audience…..

In theory, anonymous sources are a last resort. Reporters are challenged to get people to speak on the record, but sometimes that’s just not possible. If the source remains unnamed, it must be a trade-off for candor and quality of information. Of course, there are times when information a source ardently believes to be true … turns out to be false. That’s why independent corroboration by a reporter is key. Bad sourcing or lax oversight can result in the equivalent of a journalistic drive-by shooting, aided and abetted by information cloaked in a shroud of anonymity.

It can be difficult for the audience to determine whether information attributed to an unnamed source is reliable, simple rumor or totally untrue. An outrageous example of bad reporting was coverage of the Duke lacrosse team and allegations against several of its players in 2006. News organizations around the country quoted ever-present unnamed sources, public officials, court records, and each other for months, opining in synchronicity on what turned out to be a lie…..

There’s no question that anonymous sources lead journalists to valuable information and that their motives can be pure — to right an injustice, to call the public’s attention to outrageous behavior, to correct dangerous situations, to shine a light on corruption. And there’s also no question that sometimes, if the source is to avoid retribution, the only way this can be done is anonymously.

But they can also be used to further personal agendas that harm others, benefit the source and/or mislead the audience — agents attempting to create a bidding war for their clients, players attempting to undermine their coaches, disgruntled or former employees seeking revenge, conferences attempting to poach new members, rivals looking to denigrate one another, etc.

I recommend reading the entire post, as Ohlmeyer discusses in detail the mechanics of using anonymous sources in trade rumor columns. As the trade deadline approaches and rumors begin to float, you will hear from many unnamed sources who believe the Yankees are willing to give up Jesus Montero, or value Romine more than Jesus, or have made Joba Chamberlain available and Andrew Brackman untouchable. But, as Ohlmeyer states, it is important to note that these sources always have a reason for revealing this information.

Agents and team executives like to muddy the waters through the press, so that each side seems like they have multiple suitors and can walk away from the table if they so choose. This leads to hundreds of false rumors that often go uncorroborated by members of the press and then are regurgitated for our consumption. Because the agenda of the source is unknown to us, the validity of the statements that they make is questionable, and should be taken as such. If something that such a source says seems extremely unlikely or too good to be true, it likely is. Do not believe everything you read, and be skeptical of that which you hear until a source puts their name on it. Otherwise, you are likely to be chasing false rumors until the trade deadline passes.

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Belated Reflections on the Dodgers Series

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 2 Responses »
Jun 292010

So the Yankees-Dodgers series ended in style on Sunday night with a fantastic come from behind win but I wasn’t around to write about it, so I’m going to do it now.

Let’s start with Sunday. The ninth inning was definitely awesome to see. Maybe it was the heat, but I was feeling incredibly frustrated with the Yankees as my girlfriend and I watched and had almost resigned myself to a loss. I’m glad the Bombers restored my faith. On Robinson Cano, well, he’s just all sorts of fantastic. He’s tied for the WAR lead (4.5) with Justin Morneau and I get a giddy feeling watching him play.

Saturday…well, A.J.’s just lost right now. I don’t know what else they can do but send him out there every five days and hope he gets back on track.

Friday was pretty sweet, too. A-Rod homered and CC was CC. And while I generally get annoyed with the whole idea of bean-ball-wars, it was nice to see Sabathia plunk Padilla and stare him down. I could totally see CC jumping on that goomba looking mother fucker Mario style.

Anyway, onto the storylines, ’cause everyone loves a good narrative…

The whole A-Rod/Torre thing: While I would’ve liked to have seen Rodriguez give Torre the cold shoulder all weekend, but it was nice to see A-Rod take the high road and greet Torre.

As for facing Torre, I’d be lying if I didn’t say it felt good to see the Yankees take two of three from his team. I appreciate what Torre did for the Yankees, but I’m not going to line up for the Torre worship that usually takes place in the main stream media. I’ve always said the Yankees made Torre more than Torre made the Yankees. Both parties have culpability in the current fractured relationship, but I don’t see the cold war lasting forever. Before long, there will be a thawing.

Prospect Stock Watch: Hitters

Posted by Eric Schultz at 4:05 pm 3 Responses »
Jun 282010

In an earlier post this afternoon I profiled the performances of a few Yankee pitching prospects, and in this post, I intend to do the same with a few hitting under-the-radar (for the mainstream prospect follower) prospects.

Eduardo Nunez

It seems like Nunez has been around forever, and he has been in the Yankee system for a while, making his stateside debut at age 18 in 2005 for Staten Island.  The .785 OPS he posted as a teenager has yet to be replicated in his career, and until last season, he failed to even break .700.  In 2009, Nunez had a breakout season for Trenton with a .318/.344/.428 line and 9 home runs, good for a .772 OPS.  At age 23 in Scranton, Nunez has thus far put together a similar season.  While Nunez’s home run rate is down from 2009 (only 2 homers through 324 PA’s, compared to 9 in 523 last year), Nunez has shown improvement in his previously paltry walk rate.  Nunez had 22 walks all of last season, a total he has nearly equaled with his 18 thus far in 2010.  This is perhaps indicative of his great patience at the plate, and his .320/.361/.420 line shows that his OPS is more on-base heavy than it was in ’09, and hence, more valuable.  Nunez has also stolen 15 bases (caught 3 times) so far this season, compared to 19 in all of 2009 (when he was caught 7 times).  Nunez’s performance in 2009 so far has been very impressive, but is it sustainable?  His career-high .369 BABIP would indicate the potential for some regression, though his career-high line drive rate of 19% (compared to 13% in 2009) does indicate some real improvement.  Nunez’s defense may also have improved this year, as he has made just 4 errors in 69 games at shortstop, compared to a whopping 33 in 120 games last season.  Although Nunez may need to show more patience and power, as well as sustained defensive improvement to prove that he can be a major league shorstop, at present, he is the closest thing the Yankees have to a Jeter successor (let’s see Cito Culver in full season ball before we start to make broad judgments on him).

Brandon Laird

Laird has long been a prospect with excellent power, questionable patience, and mediocre defense.  In putting together the best season of his career so far in 2010 with Trenton (leading the minors in RBI with 76), Laird has shown a power spike, though his defense and patience are still problems.  After a .264/.328/.413 2009 with 13 homers in Trenton, Laird is breaking out in a big way in 2010, batting .295/.352/.565 with 19 home runs already, putting him on pace to exceed 30 on the season.  His k rate has jumped 2.4% from last year (to 17.4%) and his walk rate is identical to 2009.  Laird’s power has always been impressive, but the question is whether his hitting ability will develop enough to allow him to be something more than a AAAA slugger or bench bat a la Shelley Duncan.  Working in Laird’s favor is his age (at 22, he still has room to improve) and the fact that he has never repeated a level in the minors.  He seems like he has been around a while, but if he were drafted out of college (as opposed to junior college) he would likely in his first or second pro season (instead of his 4th), and his AA performance would look even more impressive.  Laird’s .309 BABIP likely indicates that he is not getting exceptionally lucky with batted balls this year (his BABIP was .293 in 2008 and 2009), and the increase in home run power appears substantial.  Laird also has only two fewer doubles so far (18) than he had all of last season, so he doesn’t appear to just be swinging for the fences.  The hitting improvement appears legitimate for Laird, but unless his defense (14 errors at 3rd) and patience improve, he may not be able to crack a major league starting lineup.  If he can figure things out, I see him as a potential Aubrey Huff type, a corner infield/outfield bat with pop who plays mediocre defense.

Corban Joseph

A 4th-round selection in 2008 out of high school, Joseph has continued to show strong offensive abilities for a 2nd-baseman, though his future defensive position remains in doubt.  At age 20 in 2009, Joseph posted a .799 OPS with 17 doubles, 8 triples, and 4 homers for Charleston.  In 2010, Joseph is OPS’ing .826 so far, with 23 doubles, a triple, and 4 homers on the season.  While his .311/.377/.447 line is strong, it may be reasonable to expect some regression given that his .391 BABIP greatly exceeds his previous career high (.349 in 2009).  Even if some BABIP correction does occur, Joseph’s power numbers will likely exceed those posted in 2009.  Despite the increase in power, two red flags emerge for Joseph so far in 2010.  His strikeout rate has increased (from 14% to 20%) and his walk rate has decreased (11.2% to 9%).  While none of these percentages are in the dangerously extreme territory, the trend indicates that Joseph could have problems as he advances up the ladder, and his batting average could drop off.  Joseph is still a very good hitting prospect since he is a middle infielder with legitimate pop (or at least doubles power, for now), but he definitely has to cut his strikeout rate and/or increase his walk rate if he is going to improve.

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Prospect Stock Watch: Pitchers

Posted by Eric Schultz at 2:00 pm 1 Response »
Jun 282010

The dominant return of Dellin Betances to the prospect map has understandably attracted significant buzz, but in this post, I am going to write about of the performances of a few Yankee pitching prospects that have gone under the radar.

David Phelps

Phelps, a 14th-round pick out of Notre Dame in 2008, has put up strong performances at every level of the minors, and has continued to do so in 2010 with Trenton.  Phelps posted a 2.72 ERA and a 3:1 k/bb ratio in 2008 with Staten Island, and a 2.38 ERA with a k:bb ratio of about 4:1 in 2009 between Charleston and Tampa.  Despite making moving up to a much higher level of competition in 2010, Phelps has handled AA with as much ease as the lower levels.  Through 14 starts, Phelps is 6-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings against 23 walks.  Phelps’s strikeout rate of nearly 1 per inning in 2010 is significantly higher than it has been in previous years, which points to the development of his secondary offerings that have helped him tackle the higher level of competition.  Phelps’s FIP of 2.45 would seem to indicate that his stellar ERA is not greatly influenced by luck, and could be sustainable going forward.  He may only have the ceiling of a #4 starter, and at 23 he’s not likely to improve drastically, but Phelps’s performance in AA could bode well for potential big league success.

Hector Noesi

Like Phelps, Noesi has a strong record of minor league success, and is posting an impressive season in AA at age 23.  Noesi began the season in Tampa, and after 8 strong starts (2.72 ERA, 53 strikeouts against 6 walks in 43 innings), the Yankees promoted him to Trenton.  Noesi has continued to pitch well through 45 innings in the Eastern League (with a 2.20 ERA), though his strikeout rate decreased and his walk rate increased.  Still, his k:bb ratio of 5:1 in AA is more than sufficient, and Noesi has 44 strikeouts in 45 innings, so his strikeout rate remains strong.  As with Phelps, Noesi’s FIP is not way out of line with his low ERA, though his FIP of 3.37 in Trenton is about a run above his ERA, so he could be due for a minor correction.  Noesi has a similar profile to Phelps, though his superior k:bb ratio could be indicative of a higher ceiling (maybe a #3 starter at best).

Zach McAllister

While Noesi and Phelps have raised their stock through strong performances in AA, McAllister, who has posted great ERA’s throughout his minor league career, has seen some uncharacteristic struggles at AAA at age 22.  McAllister was great in Trenton in 2009, with a 2.23 ERA, a k/9 rate of 7.14, a k:bb ratio around 3:1, and a GO:AO ratio of 1.07.  Everything has regressed for McAllister in 2010, as his k rate has gone down to 5.51 k/9 and his GO/AO ratio is down to 0.77.  The combination of fewer strikeouts and more flyballs, combined with a career high 5% HR/FB percentage have led to an ugly 4.55 ERA, with a FIP of 4.26 indicating that Z-Mac has not been exceptionally unlucky either.  While McAllister has maintained his good control (his walk rate actually went down between 2009 and 2010), his inability to get strikeouts or groundballs like he has in previous years is responsible for his greatly increased ERA, and indicates that he may need to make substantial changes to recover his form of previous years.  I’m not sure if his velocity or pitch selection has changed, but McAllister will continue to struggle if his strikeout and groundball rates remain this low.  Zach is a year younger than Noesi and Phelps and a level ahead of both of them, so he has plenty of time to get things figured out.

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Did Anderson and Martin Have a Gripe?

Posted by Stephen R. at 12:00 pm 7 Responses »
Jun 282010

Last night Garrett Anderson and Russell Martin managed to get themselves ejected after arguing with home plate umpire Chris Guccione over balls and strikes.  They were both unhappy with the size of the strike zone Guccione was granting Rivera and made their displeasure clear.  This begs an obvious question: did they have a legitimate complaint, or were they melting down just like their overworked closer?  To the tape, er…screencaps!

First, Garrett Anderson.  Here is the MLB Gameday screencap of his at-bat, followed by the Brooks Baseball strikezone plot.

anderson rivera

bb rivera v. anderson

It would seem to me that Guccione called a very good strike zone here.  The first three pitches were balls, but they were all just barely out of the strike zone.  Rivera is known for getting a wide zone from umpires, but he wasn’t getting any benefit of the doubt in this at-bat.  After going 3-0, he put one right on the inside corner to go to 3-1, and then placed a cutter low in the zone for the second strike.  In short, the umpire called all five of those pitches correctly.  What about Russell Martin?

rivera v. martin mlb gameday

rivera martin bb

In the Russell Martin at-bat we see roughly the same pattern.  Guccione called three straight balls against Rivera to open up the at-bat, and all three were around the strike zone.  MLB Gameday shows the third pitch as borderline, but Brooks Baseball’s chart actually shows that it should have been a called strike.  Regardless, after getting up 3-0 against Rivera, Martin took two cutters directly in the middle of the strike zone for strikes.  At 3-2, Rivera put a cutter roughly where the second ball had gone, but places it slightly higher and towards the middle of the plate.  Clearly, it was a strike.  Given that the cutter would have been running away from Martin and cutting across the plate the entire time, it’s hard to see how Martin had the right to upset at anyone other than himself.

The Dodgers were not robbed, and Guccione called a fair strike zone.  More than anything, it looks like both players were hoping that Guccione would give them a called ball four and a free base against Rivera.  Perhaps they doubted their ability to get a hit off Rivera and went up angling for a walk.  Regardless, the calls were correct.  In a year that has been seemingly full of umpire and referee mistakes (also here,  here, here and here) it’s nice to see the men in blue get one right for a change.  Guccione did his part to stave off the robot umpire army for one more day.

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