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What if Ace Has to Stay up the Sleeve?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 3 Responses »
May 272010

(Yes I know my title is incredibly cliched)

So we’ve gotten word that Alfredo Aceves suffered a set back while throwing on flat ground and will see a doctor soon. If the prognosis isn’t good and Aceves must be sent do the 60-day DL, there may be a bit of a strain put on the Yankee bullpen.

As it is now, the Yankees have three guys that can give multiple innings with ease: Chan Ho Park (CHoP), Sergio Mitre, and the recently re-signed Chad Gaudin. If Aceves has to be out for a long time, there needs to be improvement from Park, steadiness from Mitre, and progression from Gaudin.

Starting with Park, he’s been downright unimpressive in his brief time with the Yankees. He’s sporting an ERA over 7, an FIP pushing 9, and an xFIP just over 5. The results, aside from one game, have been ugly. Park isn’t making a ton of money this season and his salary will be easy to eat if the Yankees become dissatisfied with him. Ivan Nova had a decent cup of coffee earlier this season and is pitching well in AAA so if CHoP continues to struggle, look for Nova to be moved up and Park to be let go.

Sergio Mitre has impressed me this year, but I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop. His 2.86 ERA is obviously nice and shiny, but the 4.88 FIP and 4.54 xFIP are scaring me a bit. I don’t think he’ll keep up a H/9 of 6.14 and his .193 (!!) BABIP is just ridiculous. His career BABIP is .325 so if the correction comes, it’s going to come hard. The Serg is also stranding 79.8% of the runners that have reached compared to a career average around 66% and a league average around 70%. I’m not going to root for Mitre to regress, but I won’t be surprised if that does happen.

As I mentioned in my post from earlier today, I’m looking forward to Chad Gaudin coming back. I doubt he’s going to pitch as poorly as his ERA suggests and, like Park, he’s cheap and easy to let go if he falls on his face again. It’s unlikely he does so, though, considering his 3.92 xFIP, 10.38 K/9, and 4.00 K/BB. Of these three non-Ace-long/swingman options, I’ve got the most faith in Gaudin because he’s the youngest and his peripherals–minus the 2.60 HR/9–suggest a positive correction rather than a negative correction (Mitre) or stagnation (CHoP).

The best option, Aceves himself, is one that the Yankees may be without for some time. Hopefully, Ace gets a clean bill of health and can return to vulturing wins in short time.

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Anatomy of a Double Play

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm No Responses »
May 272010

Apart  from Swisher’s home run, no other play in the entire game last night had a higher Win Probability Added, in terms of absolute value, than when Andy Pettitte got Joe Mauer to bang into a double play in the eighth inning.  This was a glorious moment, and it was brought about by two key factors: Pettitte’s approach and Jeter’s positioning.

First, some background.  In the sixth inning, Pettitte struck Mauer out on five pitches, which you can see here:

In this at-bat, Pettitte began with a curveball high and inside, which Mauer took for a strike.  He then followed this with a fastball on the inside corner, and Mauer fouled it off.  With the count at 0-2, Pettitte threw Mauer three consecutive cutters.  The first one was low and away, and Mauer took it for a ball.  Pettitte elevated the next one slightly more, but Mauer took it for a ball as well.  Pettitte then elevated it a few more inches, and Mauer swung and missed for the strikeout.  The pattern was clear: fastballs in, cutters away.

When Pettitte faced Mauer in the bottom of the eighth, with runners on first and third and only one out, the pressure was on.  As you can see in this screenshot of the at-bat, he varied his approach:

Here he began the at-bat by throwing him two consecutive mid-80s cutters on the outside corner.  This was the same approach as the sixth inning, just with the opposite order.  The first cutter barely missed, but the second one nipped the corner and was called a strike.  With the count even at 1-1, Pettitte attempted to go inside on Mauer, placing two 90 mph fastballs right on the inside corner.   These weren’t brushback pitches, but Pettitte was no doubt attempting to set up the fifth pitch of the at-bat, which was away and offspeed, by changing the velocity and the location.  Certainly he was hoping that at least one of the two fastballs would have been called a strike or fouled off, because he would have had Mauer 2-2 and could have gone for the strikeout.

With the count 3-1, Pettitte threw the same cutter than he had gotten Mauer to chase in the sixth and had thrown for a strike on the first pitch of this at-bat.  This cutter was a bit more outside (and clearly ball four), but Mauer chased it anyway.  It’s unclear why.  Maybe he was frustrated by the strikeout in the sixth.  Maybe he thought the pitch was just too hittable.  Regardless, it was a ball, and instead of walking and loading the bases for the wOBA-leading Morneau, he drove it up the middle.

Off the bat, I thought the ball would go through and the Twins would score the go-ahead run.  However, as you can see in the video, Jeter was positioned perfectly.  He only had to take one step to the right in order to field the ball, and didn’t even need to backhand it.  Maybe the Yankees coaching staff had read JMK’s piece from yesterday on Mauer’s spray data, or maybe they do their own research, but they had Jeter positioned perfectly.

The Yankees were out of the inning, and a few minutes later Nick Swisher launched a flat changeup into the night air.  It was a good fifteen minutes, and a great ending to a very successful day for the Yankees.

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Bye Bye Boone

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
May 272010

Since the Yankees re-signed Chad Gaudin yesterday, there had to be some sort of “casualty” on the Yankee roster. It turned out that Shane Lindsay was Designated for Assignment and Boone Logan was sent packing to Scranton. I think this is something just about everyone in the Yankee blogosphere is happy about.

The lefty’s first stint (and hopefully only stint for a long time) in Pinstripes wasn’t 2009-Wangian, but it was frustrating nonetheless. While Logan flashed some good velocity–average fastball of 93 MPH–that was the only real positive.

Starting from the top, Logan’s got a 5.06 ERA with a 5.17 FIP and 5.23 xFIP as well as a 6.45 (60+) tRA. That’s just all sorts of bad right there.

Then, there’s the control issue. In 10.2 innings, Logan walked 7 (5.91/9 innings) while striking out only 6 (5.06 K/9) leading to a K/BB of 0.86. Any time you’ve got a K/BB of less than one, you’ve done something very wrong.

As the second lefty out of the bullpen, Logan’s primary job was to get lefties out. He didn’t do that. At all. His line against lefties reads: .357/.526/.500/1.026 with five walks and three strikeouts. LOOGY fail.

Perhaps we’re being too hard on Boone, as he was just the second lefty out of the bullpen, but I’m definitely glad to see him go. It seemed as if he was around just for the sake of having another lefty, and that’s not really a good strategy. I am, however, looking forward to Chad Gaudin’s second go ’round with the Yankees.

His 8.83 ERA and 5.94 FIP look really bad, but it’s worth noting that his xFIP is 3.92. I don’t think he’ll be giving up 2.60 HR/9 all season. If and when that number comes down, so will the others.

So, in summary: welcome back to the Bombers, Chad; enjoy scenic Scranton.

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Keeping up with the ex-Yanks May 27th edition

Posted by Steve S. at 7:14 am No Responses »
May 272010

It’s been 2 weeks since my last update, so it’s time for another edition. In recent news, Brian Bruney has been released by the Nats. Mike Scioscia has dropped Hideki Matsui from the clean up spot and is considering platooning the Japanese slugger, who’s done little after his hot start. Austin Jackson and Tyler Clippard are coming back down to Earth after their extremely hot starts. Ian Kennedy has continued to pitch well for Arizona and Mike Dunn is earning himself an MLB call up from the Braves.

Here’s the full list:

Melky Cabrera-

G-43 PA-142 H-27 BB-15 HR-1 SO-17 BA-.220  OBP-.304 SLG-.276 OPS-.581

Hideki Matsui-

G-45 PA-176 H-36 BB-17 HR-5 SO-34 BA-.231  OBP-.307 SLG-.372 OPS-.679

Johnny Damon-

G-44 PA-187 H-45 BB-26 HR-3 SO-27 BA-.283  OBP-.385 SLG-.428 OPS-.813

Ian Kennedy-

W-L 3-3 G-10 ERA-3.41 IP-63.1 H-53 ER-24 BB-20 SO-51 WHIP-1.153

Austin Jackson-

G-43 PA-196 H-60 BB-15 HR-1 SO-52 BA-.333  OBP-.388 SLG-.450 OPS-.838

Arodys Vizcaino (A)-

W-L 6-3 G-9 ERA-3.16 IP-51.1 H-50 ER-18 BB-9 SO-49 WHIP-1.154

Xavier Nady-

G-33 PA-76 H-15 BB-5 HR-1 SO-14 BA-.227  OBP-.316 SLG-.318 OPS-.634

Brian Bruney-

W-L 1-2 G-19 ERA-7.64 IP-17.2 H-21 ER-15 BB-20 SO-16 WHIP-2.321

Phil Coke-

W-L 3-3 G-15 ERA-1.80 IP-15.0 H-15 ER-3 BB-8 SO-412 WHIP-1.533

Mike Dunn (AAA)-

W-L 1-0 G-15 ERA-0.83 IP-21.2 H-15 ER-2 BB-9 SO-27 WHIP-1.132

Jose Tabata (AAA)-

G-42 PA-178 H-58 BB-16 HR-2 SO-27 BA-.326  OBP-.382 SLG-.433 OPS-.814

Tyler Clippard

W-L 7-3 G-23 ERA-2.12 IP-29.2 H-18 ER-7 BB-16 SO-33 WHIP-1.146

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Pitching, timely hitting, gives Yankees sweep of 1.5-header

Posted by Eric Schultz at 1:53 am No Responses »
May 272010

Despite only scoring four runs in thirteen innings of play on Wednesday, the Yankees managed to walk away with two wins.  Game 1 began in the top of the 6th inning of the suspended game from Tuesday.  After a strikeout by Kevin Russo, Derek Jeter put the game’s first run on the board with a solo homer to center.  That would be all the scoring that the Yankees would need, as the bullpen combined for four scoreless innings.

David Robertson “started” the game in the 6th inning, and was greeted by a stinging line drive off the bat of Joe Mauer.  Mauer’s liner nailed Robertson in the back and somewhat improbably, bounced into the air, and was snagged on the fly by Alex Rodriguez for a painful first out.  While D-Rob will likely have a nice baseball-sized bruise on his lower back, he was able to continue on and toss 1 2/3 scoreless innings.  He gave way to Joba Chamberlain with 2 outs in the 7th, who got Orlando Hudson to ground out with a runner on first.  Joba, whose fastball reached 95 in the 8th, gave up a hit and a walk but managed to avoid giving up the tying run.

Mariano Rivera had a somewhat exciting 9th inning to close the game out, beginning with a long fly ball off the bat of JJ Hardy that looked like a game-tying home run.  Hardy’s shot was caught at the warning track by Kevin Russo, and Rivera, catching a break, was able to close the game out.  After a walk to the still-dangerous Jim Thome, the speedy Denard Span grounded into a double play, giving the Yankees their first win of the day, with Jeter’s homer the only offense.

A few hours later, with a short bullpen (Robertson and Chamberlain were unlikely to be used again), the Yankees went back to work, with Andy Pettitte on the hill against Francisco Liriano.  It was up to the old workhorse Pettitte to provide length and give the bullpen a breather.  And that’s exactly what happened.  Pettitte went toe-to-toe with the resurgent Liriano for 8 innings, giving up just 2 runs on 8 hits and striking out 4.  He was also very efficient with his pitching, leaving with just 94 pitches on the night.

The Yankees fell behind in the first when Joe Mauer singled in Denard Span.  With Liriano dealing and the Yankee offense looking lethargic, it was up to the bottom of the order to get the Yankees back in the game.  After a leadoff single by Robinson Cano in the 4th and a popout by Marcus Thames, Francisco Cervelli made a big play by beating out a potential double play ball, keeping the inning alive.  Kevin Russo rewarded Cervelli’s hustle by stroking an RBI double to left, plating Cervelli and tying the game.  The bottom of the order struck again in the 6th with 2 outs, as a single by Russo was followed by a triple by Gardner, whose recent struggles have dropped his average below .300.

Pettitte took the hill in the 7th with a low pitch count and a slim 2-1 lead, but was unable to hold the lead.  After retiring Morneau on a grounder to 2nd, Michael Cuddyer singled.  Cuddyer was followed by Delmon Young, who boasts a career average over .500 against the veteran lefty.  True to form, Young doubled in Cuddyer, tying the game.  Pettitte was able to escape further trouble, catching Young too far off of 2nd base on a grounder to the mound, and then forcing Brendan Harris to ground out.

Pettitte once again was in trouble in the 8th inning.  Drew Butera led off the inning with a fly ball that just eluded the reach of Brett Gardner, who almost made a phenomenal running catch.  The ball bounced off of Gardner’s glove, and Butera was on with a leadoff double.  Things got worse for Pettitte as Alex Rodriguez, charging Denard Span’s bunt, mishandled the ball.  All hands were safe, and suddenly, the Twins had runners on first and third with no outs, with Hudson, Mauer, and Morneau coming up.  Hudson smashed a liner up the middle that Pettitte was able to reach up and snare.  This brought up reigning MVP and batting champion Joe Mauer.  Pettitte fell behind Mauer 3-1, before Mauer smashed a hard grounder that was snared by Jeter, who turned a neat 6-4-3 double play to get out of the inning.  After seeing Jeter field the ball, the 37 year-old lefty jumped with excitement and pumped his fist.  With a little bit of luck, Pettitte got the job done.

Pettitte’s efforts were rewarded in the 9th inning, as Nick Swisher put the Yankees ahead 3-2 with a lined-shot homer to right field off closer Jon Rauch.  I am sure Joe Girardi did not want to use Mariano twice tonight, but in a 1-run game, out trotted #42 to nail down the save.  With 3 groundball outs, Rivera got the job done, and the Yankees went home with their second win of the day.

The pitching, both by the bullpen in game 1 and by Pettitte in game 2, kept the Yankees in both games despite the lack of offense.  While A-Rod and Teixeira have continued to be non-factors in the offense, Teixeira did go 2 for 5 in the 2nd game, raising his average to a paltry .210.  It’s only a matter of time before these two guys heat up, but currently, the lack of production from the 3-4 spots is killing the Yankees.  When they get going, the offense will really take off.  Kevin Russo came through in the clutch twice in game 2 with big 2-out hits, and could be earning himself a permanent spot on the 25-man roster at the expense of Pena or Thames.

The Yankees will face the Twins again on Thursday, as Javy Vazquez matches up with Nick Blackburn.  I imagine Rivera will likely be unavailable after doing double-duty on Wednesday, so Joba Chamberlain could get the opportunity to close out the game.

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