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Zach McAllister's Decline Exaggerated

Posted by EJ Fagan at 6:50 pm 3 Responses »
May 222010

Zach McAllister entered the season as the undisputed #1 Yankee pitching prospect. He received a promotion to Triple-A after a year of expertly handling Double-A hitters, and appeared second or third on the Yankee depth chart, but I’ve sensed that the excitement around him has been diminished by a relatively slow start to 2010. Here are his career statistics:

Year Age Tm Lg Lev ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2006 18 Yankees GULF Rk 3.09 1 35.0 35 14 12 1 12 28 1.343 9.0 0.3 3.1 7.2 2.33
2007 19 Staten Island NYPL A- 5.17 15 71.1 80 42 41 3 28 75 1.514 10.1 0.4 3.5 9.5 2.68
2008 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-A 2.09 24 151.0 133 52 35 9 21 115 1.020 7.9 0.5 1.3 6.9 5.48
2008 20 Charleston SALL A 2.45 10 62.1 59 28 17 3 8 53 1.075 8.5 0.4 1.2 7.7 6.63
2008 20 Tampa FLOR A+ 1.83 14 88.2 74 24 18 6 13 62 0.981 7.5 0.6 1.3 6.3 4.77
2009 21 Trenton EL AA 2.23 22 121.0 98 39 30 4 33 96 1.083 7.3 0.3 2.5 7.1 2.91
2010 22 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre IL AAA 4.33 9 52.0 61 26 25 6 10 37 1.365 10.6 1.0 1.7 6.4 3.70
5 Seasons 2.99 71 430.1 407 173 143 23 104 351 1.187 8.5 0.5 2.2 7.3 3.38
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

A few weeks ago, I stated my belief in strikeout rates being more important than any other statistic when evaluating pitchers. After strikeout rates, I listed fastball velocity as the next most important indicator of prospect status. McAllister has never had strong strikeout rates, and never thrown particularly hard. He gets by with movement, control, and endurance.

This season, McAllister continued his decline from a ground ball pitcher to a fly ball pitcher. His ERA, hit rate, and home run rate have all risen, but his BB rate has dropped back toward his 2008 breakout level. His FIP has risen to 4.00, largely thanks to the increased home runs. It hasn’t been a great season, but the statistics that have blown up tend to be more luck-based than the ones that have stayed relatively stable, or improved, since his promotion. Basically, there’s a good chance that we’re looking at the exact same Zach McAllister who happens to be suffering from a terrible string of luck. Its most likely that we’re actually looking at a combination of luck and McAllister adjusting to more experienced hitters.

I’m really not all that sure how to augur McAllister’s MLB career. On one hand, he’s pretty much dominated every step of the minor leagues. On the other hand, his low K rate without a groundball tendency to support it is very alarming. The reality is that McAlliser might be heading toward becoming a slightly better version of Jeff Suppan. I think he’s capable of being better than that, but there’s only so much a pitcher can do when he doesn’t strike people out, and doesn’t get loads of ground balls. McAllister does all of that – he throws strikes, keeps hitters off the bases, limits the home run, and stays healthy. But an ace he is not.

McAllister has one very fortunate thing to fall back on right now: he wasn’t added to the 40-man roster this offseason. While Ivan Nova can probably expect to be jostled between Scranton and New York all season, serving as long reliever or spot starter for a few days before being sent down, McAllister gets to breath a little bit. He’ll have time to produce a full workload, gain some confidence, and try to bring his performance back to meet his own lofty expectations. I generally don’t buy a lot of the home-psychology of minor league analysis, but having a little struggle to overcome can’t be bad for Zach McAllister’s performance. Unless he starts dominating his opponents, I would oppose any move to New York this season.

Pundits love to label people “3rd” or “4th” or “5th” starters without really knowing what they are talking about. The reality is that on most teams a 5th starter is a pretty piss-poor pitcher. If McAllister can take the ball every day and pitch 6-7 innings with an ERA somewhere in the 4s, he’s valuable to the Yankees, and should be given a chance. He’s not Matt DeSalvo or Jeff Karstens or Steve White. He has real talent, real experience, and a real shot at a long major league career. My top-30 ranking next week will reflect that.

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MLB Roto Standings

Posted by Stephen R. at 4:00 pm 1 Response »
May 222010
After last night’s win, the Yankees’ record now stands at 26-16, a total of 42 games.  25% of the season is over, which makes me a sad panda.  Other analysts and pundits are handing out awards, and some teams are already talking about the playoffs, so I put together a review of my own, analyzing all 30 teams as if MLB were a giant 5×5 Fantasy Baseball Roto League.  Yes, baseball is now officially played on spreadsheets.  All stats are prior to last night’s results, and we’ll start with offense.
mlb roto offense
We see that the Yankees come in first place with a grand total of 139 points, with a maximum possible score of 150.  They lead the league in Runs, RBI and Batting Average.  It’s not surprising that the Yankees excel in Runs and RBI, as they are a function of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, both strengths of the Yankees.  In fact, there’s room for more upside in these categories as they get Swisher, Posada and Granderson back to full health, and as Teixeira and Rodriguez fully hit their strides.  The Yankees rank 26th in Home Runs, despite a relative dearth from Teixeira, and 23rd in Stolen Bases, thanks to one very speedy Brett Gardner.  Other notable entries on the offensive side are the Seattle Mariners, aka #6org, who rank second to last in Runs, HR, RBI and AVG.  They do however score a 25 in SB, so kudos to them!  If only it translated into some runs!  In last place are the very very woeful Astros, who have a combined score of 13.  They rank last in every category except SB, where they come in ninth.  For the Astros, it’s the worst of times…and the worst of times.
MLB Roto Pitching
On the pitching side, we see the Rays dominate WHIP, ERA and W while scoring high in Ks and Saves.  Their staff this has been superb.  The Yankees score high in the same categories, and would certainly score much higher if not for the abysmal outings by Vazquez earlier in the year. The Yankees score very low in Ks, which is somewhat odd given that their staff features high strikeout guys like Sabathia, Burnett and Hughes.  Sabathia and Burnett’s strikeout rates have been a bit below average thus far, but there’s no reason as of yet to think that they won’t bounce back. In last are the Indians, with an Astro-esque score of 20.  This particular format doesn’t favor their pitching staff, which features several decent ERA-types with low strikeout totals.

When you put it all together, the Rays come in first place with a total of 249 out of a possible 300.  The Rays have put together a very solid team in every aspect of the game and have more wins than anyone, so this is hardly surprising.  The Yankees come in second with a score of 233, which I think is appropriate.  Other notable entries are the Red Sox, who come in ninth place despite their struggles so far.  Finally, in last place are the woeful Indians, with 54 points.  It’s hard not to feel bad for them, but at least they have a capable and intelligence front office, which is more than I can say for the 28th place Astros. This is really just a fun way to look at how teams are performing a quarter of the way through the year as we await tonight’s game against the Mets.  It’s hardly sabermetric, and I doubt we will see Baseball Prospectus imitate it any time soon.  What do you think, though?  Does anything in particularly interesting stand out to you?

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Javy's Abbreviated Return

Posted by Stephen R. at 12:45 pm No Responses »
May 222010

After a disastrous start to the season, Javier Vazquez had a little spring vacation.  He was skipped in the rotation, and finally returned against the Tigers in Detroit on May 12.  He pitched well, going 7 innings, giving up 5 hits and 2 ER, walking two and striking out six.  Despite this, the Yankees opted to skip Vazquez again when they faced Boston.  He appeared in relief, vulturing a win when the Yankees came back and walked off against the BEST CLOSAH EVAH (h/t NoMaas) on the 17th.  Last night, he returned to the rotation at Citi Field against the Mets and pitched very well.  Needing only seventy pitches to get through 6 innings, Vazquez allowed one hit, a bloop to center, and walked Alex Cora twice.  He also struck out six. This was very good.

Vazquez threw seventy pitches last night, 46 for strikes.  Despite this, he only managed to get five swinging strikes.  Interestingly, these were all on the third strike of his first five strikeouts.  He got swinging strikes on 3 fastballs, 1 changeup, and 1 slider.  His sixth and last strikeout was against Gary Matthews Jr., who was caught looking at a 89 mph fastball on the outside corner.   From a velocity standpoint, Javier was good but not great, still below his averages from 2009.  As the chart from Brooks Baseball below demonstrates, he sat at 88 mph on his fastball and maxed out at 90.

Despite the good results, one concern about Vazquez’s performance was his command of his changeup.  He threw 10 changeups last night, but only four went for strikes.  As this chart from Joe Lefkowitz’s Pitch F(x) tool demonstrates, Vazquez missed consistently up and on the outer edge of the plate (assuming a RHB).  Ideally, Vazquez will be commanding that changeup down in the zone and generate more swinging strikes. This may suggest that he’s still having a bit of trouble with his mechanics.

JV changeup command

Vazquez left the game after the sixth inning after bruising his index finger on his right hand on an attempted bunt.  It’s unclear whether Javier will miss his next start, but it Mike Axisa from River Ave Blues reported last night that he may use the extra day of rest on Monday and still take his next turn in the rotation on Thursday against the Twins.  In Mike’s words, that would be awesome.   While his injury is unfortunate, it’s not the worst type of injury from my perspective.  I’d much rather see Vazquez injure himself batting than pitching.  If he had pulled his hamstring or strained his back while throwing a fastball, then it would have raised a host of questions about whether his mechanics, which were allegedly out of whack earlier in the season, had caused some sort of change in the kinetic chain of his throwing motion, thereby placing additional stress on different parts of his body.  Given enough rest, and assuming the injury is nothing more than a bruise, Vazquez should be able to make a return.  When he does return, his ability to grip the ball well and affect spin on his breaking pitches will be something to watch.

It’s been a rough start for Vazquez this year.  He was booed in his home debut, and despite two good starts in a row still has an ERA of 6.69.  Questions about his command and his velocity still linger, but last night Vazquez mowed down the Mets and helped end the team’s losing streak, taking a big step towards becoming a solid fixture in the Yankees’ rotation.

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Granderson back soon, should he move to Left?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:26 am 19 Responses »
May 222010

Photo courtesy of the New York Post

The Yanks got some good news on the injury front last night, Curtis Granderson should be returning to the team a bit sooner than previously thought. Rick Carpieniello of LoHud has the story:

NEW YORK — The Yankees got some good news on the injury front Friday. Curtis Granderson is expected back sooner than originally thought.

Granderson, on the DL since May 2 with a strained groin, worked out with the team prior to Friday night’s game, and was then to fly to Louisville to join Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on its road trip. There, Granderson expects to play five games in six days — two at DH — and if all goes well, he hopes to return Thursday and be available to the Yankees next Friday.

It will be interesting to see what Girardi does defensively with him. He could use the injury as an excuse to move him to Left Field, and keep the better defensive player in Gardner manning Center.  The Yanks view Gardner as far better defensively, and the main reason why he didn’t win the everyday CF job out of Spring Training was that the Yanks weren’t sure Brett was an everyday player. Also, I’m sure they wanted to smooth Granderson’s transition to the Bronx, a place where so many players have trouble settling in. But that’s all past us now, Gardner has shown himself to not only be an everyday player, but an absolutely vital cog with the Yanks both offensively and defensively. Girardi should feel free to put each player wherever he thinks they will do the most to help the team win. Curtis went on the record in March saying he would have no problem playing Left field, so it’s a convenient excuse for Girardi to give him the easier defensive position, citing the injury.

Personally, I would support the move. I know it doesn’t make a difference all that often, but the plays that Gardner will make that Curtis won’t will most likely be doubles and triples that you’re converting to outs. Even if that only happens a handful of times a month, it could be the difference between winning and losing that individual game. Especially if they come with two outs and/or men on base. It’s easy to dismiss a defensive upgrade, but the team that just left the Bronx on Thursday is an example of how these things can add up for a club that’s already high on the win curve. You’re playing both guys anyway, might as well put them in the best defensive configuration.

What do you think? Where would you play Curtis, and why?

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