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Checking in on Jeter's plate patience

Posted by Chris H. at 6:00 pm 1 Response »
May 212010


I have written about Derek Jeter‘s lack of plate patience this year a number of times, as such a change in a hitter’s approach can often be predictive for older players, indicating that a decline is ahead. For Jeter, that could very well be the case given that he is swinging at balls at an alarming rate (compared to his career averages). On the season, Jeter’s O-Swing rate is currently at 32.6% – he is swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone 32.6% of the time – while his career average in that area is a hair under 20% (it has been closer to about 22% from 2008-2009). However, despite the disappointing season percentage, there are some positive developments that perhaps indicate Jeter’s plate patience is starting to come around.

In April, Jeter swung at 34.4% of the balls he saw outside of the strike zone. In May, though, Jeter has knocked that number down a bit, swinging at 30% of the pitches he has seen that were off the plate. It is a marginal improvement, but an improvement nonetheless. In addition to that, Jeter has also swung at fewer strikes between April and May. In April, Jeter swung at 72.5% of the pitches he saw in the zone, while his career Z-Swing is 74%. Jeter’s Z-Swing percentage fell further than his career average in May, as he has swung at 65.1% of the strikes he has seen. Basically, this is a good thing, as it would indicate that Jeter is taking more pitches, particularly those that he may not be able to do much with. Compared to the month of April, he is being more selective inside and outside of the zone, and it shows, as his walk rate has increased from a measly 3% in April to 6.5% in May. In my opinion, these are positive developments for the elder statesmen, as long as they continue to trend in the right direction.

Sometimes, the 35-year old has looked awful at the plate, especially with pitches on the outside corner (or just outside). He does, however, seem to be improving upon his overall plate patience, which will hopefully boost his rather disappointing .275/.319/.399 triple slash line.

Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images

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Discussion: Has The Subway Series Lost Its Luster?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 9 Responses »
May 212010


For many years, the Subway Series between the Yankees and Mets has been a series that I have circled on the proverbial calendar. No matter the relative fortunes of the two teams, it has always been fun to watch the teams meet to determine intra-city supremacy. Some of the more memorable moments of the 2009 season came against the Mets, with the dropped pop-up by Luis Castillo and Mariano Rivera’s first career RBI being particularly notable. Throw in the World Series from 2000, and this rivalry has produced plenty of indelible moments.

However, the players and managers of the Yankees have often lamented the fact that the series is usually a no-win situation for the Yankees, as they are expected to take each series against the typically lesser Mets and only a sweep will suffice in the minds of some fans. Artificial pressure is infused into games that hold no more significance, and likely less, than a mid-June series with the Royals or Indians. Players who fail against the Mets get tagged with the “cannot win in big spots” label, while a 2-1 series win is often shrugged off as denoting a club that is simply fulfilling expectations.

With this seasons Subway Series upon us, I realized that I am experiencing a similar ambivalence to the matchup. When I posted my thoughts on this on Twitter, noting that these games are not big games just because the opponent is the Mets, a number of fans from both sides of the rivalry concurred. Artificial pressure added to a not particularly meaningful series that comes while both clubs are struggling leads me to view these three tilts as annoyances rather than exciting events. Bragging rights are not currently on the line, simply because no matter what happens in these two series, the Yankees will be fighting for a playoff spot and the Mets are unlikely to contend. In a way, the Castillo play from last season symbolizes the direction this rivalry has taken, heading from a compelling matchup to a quirky sideshow. The Subway Series seems to have lost a lot of luster, and I think only a move towards contention by the Mets could solve that. Even then, the drama would likely be born out of a matchup of 2 strong clubs rather than any inherent tension in this rivalry. Right now, with the current state of the two teams, I’m just not that into it.

How about you?

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Revisiting The 2000 Subway Series

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:22 pm No Responses »
May 212010


With the Subway Series upon us, I thought it would be fun to take glance back at the 2000 World Series between the Yankees and Mets, a 5 game series that was actually a lot closer than that. Here are the key players with their WAR in that season. The Yankees are listed first at each position.

C: Jorge Posada (5.7), Mike Piazza (5.2)
1B: Tino Martinez (0.0), Todd Zeile (2.2)
2B: Chuck Knoblauch (0.1), Edgardo Alfonzo (6.7)
SS: Derek Jeter (4.4), Mike Bordick (2.1)
3B: Scott Brosius (-0.4), Robin Ventura (1.7)
LF: David Justice (5.0), Benny Agbayani (1.9)
CF: Bernie Williams (5.0), Jay Payton (2.2)
RF: Paul O’Neill (1.2), Derek Bell (1.3)
DH/Bench: Jose Vizcaino(-0.1), Todd Pratt (1.2)

SP #1: Andy Pettitte (3.3), Al Leiter (4.7)
#2: Roger Clemens (4.7), Mike Hampton (4.6)
#3: Orlando Hernandez (3.0), Rick Reed (2.4)
#4: David Cone (-1.3), Glendon Rusch (2.5)
#5: Denny Neagle (0.2), Bobby Jones (0.6)
RP #1: Jeff Nelson (2.0), Turk Wendell (1.0)
RP #2: Mike Stanton (0.9), John Franco (0.9)
RP #3: Ramiro Mendoza (1.4), Dennis Cook (-0.3)
CL: Mariano Rivera (2.9), Armando Benitez (2.5)

Game 1

The Yankees took Game 1 at the Stadium 4-3 in thrilling fashion. The contest was scoreless headed into the 6th, with the lone excitement coming when Andy Pettitte picked Mike Piazza off first in the 4th inning. Timo Perez lead off the 6th with a single and was still at first with two outs when Todd Zeile hit a long fly ball to left. Perez, thinking the ball was a home run, slowed to a trot, only to have the ball bounce off the top of the wall and land right in the vicinity of David Justice. Justice relayed to Derek Jeter, who made a nice throw home to nail an embarrassed Perez at home plate.

In the bottom of the 6th, Justice knocked in two runs with a double off of Al Leiter, and the Yankees took a 2-0 lead into the 7th. However, Pettitte allowed two singles and a walk with one out in the 7th to load the bases, at which point singles from Bubba Trammell and Edgardo Alfonzo gave the Mets a 3-2 lead. The game went to bottom of the 9th with the same score, at which point Armando Benitez entered to close it out for the Mets. With one out, Paul O’neill fought back from a 1-2 count to work a walk in a 10 pitch at-bat, and Luis Polonia followed with a pinch hit single. Jose Vizcaino kept the line moving with a single to load the bases, and Chuck Knoblauch lofted a sac fly to LF to tie the score and send the game to extra innings.

The Yankees put runners on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out in the 10th, but a pop-up by Tino Martinez and an intentional walk followed by a double play from O’Neill killed that rally. They did the same with 2 outs in the 11th, but Glenallen Hill flew out to end the threat. Finally, in the 12th, the Yankees once again put runners at 2nd and 3rd, after Tino singled and Posada doubled with one out. O’Neill was walked and Sojo popped out, and once again it looked as if the Yankees would squander a fantastic opportunity. However, Jose Vizcaino finished a fantastic 5-5 night with a single to left, and the Yankees took home a very important victory.

Game 2

This game was hyped as the Piazza v. Clemens game after Clemens had hit Piazza in the head during the regular season, and it did not disappoint. Piazza hit a foul ball in the first inning that resulted in bat shards flying at Clemens, who caught a shard and flung it up the first base line, just where Piazza happened to be running. Benches cleared, some harsh words were thrown about, and then things calmed down. Once they did, Clemens was masterful. He went 8 shutout innings, striking out 9 while allowing just two hits.

Meanwhile, the Yankees scored three times off Mike Hampton in the first 2 innings, and added 3 more runs in the game, with Tino and Scott Brosius knocking in 2 apiece. The game entered the 9th inning 6-0, and looked to be over. However, Jeff nelson allowed a two run homer to Piazza, and left with a runner on first and nobody out. Mariano Rivera entered, and notched two outs while allowing one hit to put runners at 2nd and 3rd for Jay Payton, who homered on a 1-1 pitch to narrow the gap to 6-5. The game ended with that score, as Rivera struck out Kurt Abbott to end the contest, and the Series moved to Shea with the Yankees up 2-0.

Game 3

The Mets took game 3 by a 4-2 margin on the strength of 2 8th inning runs off of El Duque, who was fantastic up until that point. The Yankees lead 2-1 heading into the bottom of the 6th, when Hernandez allowed a run scoring double to Todd Zeile that also put runners at 2nd and 3rd with nobody out. After a walk loaded the bases, El Duque proceeded to get two strikeouts and a groundout to escape without further damage. With Rick Reed out of the game, the Yankees had a chance against the Mets bullpen, but Wendell, Cook, Franco, and Benitez were up to the task, allowing 4 baserunners but no runs in the final 3 innings. In the bottom of the 8th, El Duque allowed a single to Zeile and a run scoring double to Agbayani, who later scored as well on a sac fly, and suddenly we had a series.

Game 4

With a thrilling pitching matchup of Denny Neagle against Bobby Jones, Game 4 was truly up for grabs. However, Derek Jeter set the tone early with a home run on the first pitch of the game, and the Yankees never trailed. Jeter tripled leading off the third and scored on a groundout to give the Yankees a 3 run lead. Neagle was on a very short leash, and was pulled with 2 outs and no one on in the 5th as Mike Piazza, who had homered in the 3rd to cut the lead to 3-2, came to the plate. Joe Torre went to David Cone, who put a bow on his Yankee career by getting Piazza to pop out. Nobody threatened much for the rest of the contest, as Nelson, Stanton, and Rivera pitched 4 innings of shutout ball, and the Yankees were one win from their 26th title.

Game 5

The Mets lead for much of Game 5, taking a 2-1 lead in the second after a Bernie homer had given the Yankees an early lead. With two outs and runners on second and third, Pettitte made an error on a Leiter bunt that allowed one run to come in, and an Agbayani single gave the Mets the lead. The score held until the 6th, when Derek Jeter homered to tie the game and essentially clinch WS MVP for himself. Leiter, pitching a gem of a game, struck out the first two Yankee hitters in the 9th, and it looked like he would finish a complete 9 and give his chance to win it with a walk-off.

The next hitter was Jorge Posada, and he worked a walk after a 9 pitch at-bat. At this point, Leiter was at 138 pitches and the Met bullpen had pitched well in the series, but Bobby Valentine decided to stick with Leiter and it cost him. Brosius singled to put runners on first and second, and on the next pitch, Luis Sojo hit a 20 hopper through the middle. Posada scored on the play, and the throw hit him and bounded away, allowing Brosius to score as well. The Yankees handed the ball to Mariano Rivera to close things out, and he made things interesting by walking Agbayani with one out and Alfonzo and Piazza due up. Alfonzo flew out to right, and Piazza took a big hack that looked off the bat as if it might tie the game. However, Piazza just missed it, Bernie caught the ball in front of the track, and the Yankees were once again World Champions.

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A Jorge-less Lineup

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 1 Response »
May 212010

The return of Nick Swisher? Good.

The ankle injury to Marcus Thames? Not good.

The foot injury to Jorge Posada that will sideline him for 3-4 weeks? Really not good.

With Posada (and Johnson and Granderson) sidelined, the Yankee lineup remains much less circular than it did at the start of the year. Jorge’s return would have helped greatly. Obviously, it’s not going to happen so the Yankees must construct a lineup without their regular catcher for a little while.

Marcus Thames’ absence will also have a negative effect. This means there will either be a rotating DH (read: Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo will be in the lineup while a regular DHs) or the Yankees will have to let Juan Miranda hit against left handed pitching. This may not seem desirable, but after two years–2007 and 2008–of awful hitting against lefties in the minors (OPS’s of .664 and .551), Miranda’s apparently learned how to hit southpaws (.874 in ’09, .952 in ’10). Major League lefties are definitely a different beast all together, but the improvement is much welcomed. For the time that Thames is out, there really isn’t another option, unless the Yankees want to put a free out in the lineup in the person of Ramiro Pena. When Thames returns, a Miranda/Thames DH platoon should work out nicely.

A key to the Jorge-less lineup is going to be Nick Swisher. That he is back in the outfield is a big plus, especially now that Thames is hurt. If Swisher couldn’t play, the Yankees’ outfield would have absolutely no power threat. The return of Swisher also means a better, more powerful bat behind Robinson Cano. While he’s hit well, I don’t think we liked seeing Francisco Cervelli as the six hitter the last few nights. And while it may not be as intimidating as it was on Opening Day, a Swisher inclusive lineup is much deeper than the one the Yankees trotted out this week. The moral of this paragraph? It’s a good thing Nick Swisher is coming back right now.

If I had to guess, I’d say the lineup will look like this each night:

1. Jeter SS
2. Gardner CF
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Cano 2B
6. Swisher RF
7. Miranda DH
8. Cervelli C
9. Winn LF

The 7-8-9 isn’t great, but the 1-6 is still very solid. If the pitching staff can rebound from an awful stretch against Boston and Tampa, the Yankees should be fine while waiting out Granderson, Posada, and Johnson.

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Starters let Yanks down during losing streak

Posted by Steve S. at 7:39 am No Responses »
May 212010

Photo courtesy of the New York Times

We all know that the Yanks are dealing with more than their fair share of injuries right now. They’re 5-9 over the past 14 games, and in 5 of those losses (and 1 win) the Yankee starter has failed to deliver a quality start where he delivers his team to the 6th inning giving up 3 Runs or less. To be honest, the Yankee starter hasn’t given the team much of a chance to win in 6 of those games. I’ll quickly recap  some of the carnage for you:

(5-9-2010 3-9 Loss to Boston Red Sox) AJ Burnett – 4.1 IP 9R 8 ER

(5-10 2010 4-5 Loss to Detroit) Mitre 4.1 IP 4 R 3 ER

(5-13-2010 0-6 Loss to Detroit) CC Sabathia 6 IP 6 R 6 ER

(5-17-2010 11-9 Win vs Boston) Hughes 5 IP 5 R 5 ER

(5-19-2010 6-10 Loss to TB) AJ Burnett 6.2 IP 6R 6 ER

(5-20-2010 6-8 Loss to TB) Pettitte 5.0 IP 7 R 6 ER

Simply put, the Yankee rotation that carried the team through has let them down lately. Phil Hughes’s performance from yesterday doesn’t fall in this category, but it recaps just how the rotation carried them through the April, and even with the losses to the lineup it is the Starters that have let them down. The one win they enjoyed required rare late-inning heroics from both Alex and Thames facing Paps. You won’t win many games getting performances like that out of your rotation.

This was to be expected, Hughes, Pettitte and Burnett were all due for regressions to the mean after their hot start to the season. I never believed Phil and Andy were going to finish the year with ERAs hovering around 1.50.  Hughes has given up 9 ER in 10.2 IP over his past two starts, and is now getting criticized for throwing too many strikes, which is a common refrain over Phil’s career. AJ Burnett has given up 16 ER over 17.2 IP over his past 3 starts. But the normal ebb and flow of a Baseball season for the rotation came at a time when the Yankee lineup was breaking down, and the offense simply hasn’t been able to pick up the slack. But make no mistake, it all begins with pitching in Baseball.

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