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Checking in on a Few Things

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 6 Responses »
May 202010

OFFENSE

Going into last night’s game, the Yankees led the Major Leagues in wOBA with an impressive .365 mark. That’s ten points above the closest competitor, the Milwaukee Brewers (.355). The Yankees also lead the league in FanGraphs WAR at 10.6, mostly due to their 50 batting runs.

Speaking of WAR, Baseball Reference has added WAR to its player pages and I noticed last night that Alex Rodriguez has gone over the 100 WAR mark as I discussed way back in March.

DEFENSE

Right now, the Yankees are 10th in the Majors in UZR/150 (5.1). That’s a good mark, but it’s worth noting that the sample is still small and UZR for teams isn’t always as good as UZR for individual players. In terms of defensive efficiency, that is how good the Yankees are at turning batted balls into outs, they rank 4th in the Majors with a .719 mark. The Giants lead the league with a .726 mark.

RUN EXPECTANCY

This doesn’t speak to the Yankees per se, but more just baseball in general. To make a Yankee connection, go back to Tuesday night’s game when Francisco Cervelli bunted in the ninth, giving the Red Sox an extra out and moving a runner–the tying run–to third that never ended up scoring.

Looking at the run expectancy chart, we can see that there is literally no situation in which bunting a runner, or runners, over that will increase the amount of runs that a team could expect to score.

The Rays are Here! Previewing James Shields

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 2 Responses »
May 202010

Yesterday I looked at Wade Davis and concluded, inter alia, that he was due to hit a rough patch.  Unfortunately, that didn’t happen last night and it was Burnett who suffered at the hands of the Rays.  Davis and his Garland-esque ERA-FIP discrepancy will face the music later, I suppose.

Shields and Crisp

Tonight the Yankees will throw Andy Pettitte against James Shields in the final game of this two-game series.  Unfortunately for the Yankees, Shields has been one of the better pitchers in the American League so far in 2010.  With an ERA of 3.00 over 54 innings, he has proven to be every bit the ace the Rays were hoping they had when they dealt away Scott Kazmir last year.  The most notable thing about him this year is the increase in his strikeout rate.  Striking out 59 batters over 54 innings, Shields has a K/9 of 9.83, good for 7th best in the major leagues.  However, these totals are padded by a few outings against advantageous lineups.  In his first four outings, he faced Baltimore, Boston, the Yankees and the White Sox and struck out 6, 5, 7, and 3 batters, respectively.  Since then, Shields has faced Oakland and Seattle in successive turns and struck out 12, 10, 6 and 10.  While the strikeout numbers are impressive, they may be more representative of the quality of the Athletics and the #6org’s respective lineups. It’s doubtful that he will be able to continue putting up similar totals against better lineups throughout the year.  Accompanying this increase in strikeouts has been a decrease in his walk rate, from 2.13 to 1.83, leaving him with a K/BB ratio of 5.36.  Again, it remains to be seen if he can keep pitching like Halladay against superior lineups.

Shields’ year has been something of a mixed bag when it comes to luck.  On one hand, his BABIP is .353, 44 points higher than his career average.  While this seems unlucky at first glance, his line drive rate is actually up 4%, from  20.5% in 2009 to 24.%, which may account for the increase in BABIP.  At the same time, his strand rate is 83.3%, a solid 10 percentage points higher than his career average, which may suggest that he’s had a bit of luck in holding runners on base.  Working against him is his HR/FB%, which is up 3 percentage points in 2010.  This difference accounts for his xFIP of 2.94.  So, Shields has had bad luck on balls in play and his HR/FB%, but these are mitigated by the increase in the line drive rate and the advantageous strand rate.  As he faces tougher lineups, he may see his strikeouts regress back down to the 7.5 K/9 range and his ERA rise slightly.  Regardless, the Rays still have a top 10 AL starter in Shields.  K/BB ratios of 3.5 or higher don’t grow on trees.

According to Texas Leaguers, Shields throws some six pitches: a four-seam and two-seam fastball, a cutter, a changeup, a curveball and a slider.  He alternates between his two-seamer and the four-seamer frequently, throwing them 24.6% and 22.7% of the time.  He uses the two-seamer to bear in on right-handed batters and tail away from left-handed batters.  Complementing these pitches is his cutter, thrown 12% of the time around 4 mph slower than his fastball combo.  His cutter has the opposite action of his two-seamer, tailing away from right-handed batters and bearing on left-handed batters.

Shields throws his changeup as frequently as his straight fastball (23.4%).  It’s definitely his favorite offspeed pitch, and for good reason.  Since 2009, batters have swung at 58% of his changeups, more than any other pitch he throws, and have missed nearly 20% of the time, also a best for Shields.  When they aren’t whiffing on it, batters are fouling it off 20% of the time and putting in play a mere 18% of the time.  In other words, his changeup is deceptive, hard to hit, and very good.  In fact, Fangraphs ranks it his most valuable pitch in 2009, worth 12.4 runs above average per 100 pitches.   Aside from the changeup, Shields mixes in a curveball around 10% of the time, a pitch which has gotten the second-most swings and misses percentage-wise since 2009.

In Shields, the Yankees will be facing a very hot pitcher with great control.  He has the ability to locate his fastball well and use his cutter and two-seamer to dart in or away from hitters.  He complements these with a very good changeup and respectable curveball to generate swings and misses.  The Yankees have have hit Shields very well throughout the course of his career, to the tune of .299/.347/.545.  They only faced him once 2009, roughing him up for 9 hits and 5 ER over 5.1 innings in a 11-4 Yankees victory.  Shields is a worse pitcher at night than in the day, and worse outdoors than in a dome, so hopefully the Yankees will be able to take advantage.  It’s not much, if anything, but when Randy Winn is the starter left fielder, I’ll take what I can get.

Oh, and please feel free to mock Michael Kay tonight when he refers to Shields as Big Game James.  It’s a myth.

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Rising: Brandon Laird

Posted by EJ Fagan at 11:00 am 1 Response »
May 202010

So far, I’ve looked at some guys who are really potentially top-notch prospects. Today, I look at Brandon Laird, whose ceiling isn’t nearly as high. Still, he could be a useful player, and is making his case early in 2010. His statistics:

Year Age Tm Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2007 19 Yankees GULF Rk 45 178 168 27 57 14 1 8 29 6 26 .339 .367 .577 .945
2008 20 Charleston SALL A 122 506 454 71 124 31 1 23 86 40 86 .273 .334 .498 .832
2009 21 Tampa FLOR A+ 124 501 451 53 120 20 4 13 75 39 75 .266 .329 .415 .744
2010 22 Trenton EL AA 37 158 144 23 41 7 1 7 36 12 23 .285 .335 .493 .828
4 Seasons 328 1343 1217 174 342 72 7 51 226 97 210 .281 .337 .477 .814
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

The man is pretty good at hitting home runs, doesn’t strike out a lot, and plays third base. That’s the good news. The bad news is he doesn’t have amazing on base skills, doesn’t hit for a high average, and grounds in to tons of double plays. However, he has been remarkably consistent across minor league levels. If you discount his terrible April and May in Tampa, he’s basically hit .275/.333/.490 across all levels. He’s also remarkably consistent against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers: .278/.330/.461 against left-handers, .282/.338/.475 against right-handers. His K and BB rates are also consistent through all levels.

Laird’s start in Trenton is encouraging because its a confidence builder. Take a look at his RBI’s – he leads the Yankee system, including the majors, and is also first in the Eastern League. Normally, I wouldn’t quote the statistic, but I think that his success in games will lead to increased confidence, which could help him take his game to another level. Laird has the raw power skill to be an effective major league player. He has shown flashes of huge power, but generally hasn’t kept it going for any lengthy period of time. One day in August, we might wake up and realize that Laird is slugging .550, and on track for 30+ home runs. That’s the track he is going to take to become a major league starter. And it all starts with confidence. There’s nothing really holding Laird back from becoming the next Vinny Castilla.

More than likely, Laird figures in the Yankee picture as a bench player. I think he can do a lot of good in that role. Power off the bench can help swing games, and Laird is helped by not having a platoon split. He is currently playing both 1st and 3rd, but I don’t think its unreasonable for him to play a little left field in the future. That’s a pretty useful player – Juan Miranda with more versatility.

So yeah, pretty good rebound year for Brandon Laird. After you get passed the higher ceiling guys, he’ll hold up well in next week’s prospect ranking. I honestly think he’s a pretty safe bet to make the majors in some capacity. Good for him.

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Missing Marcus

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 9:00 am 3 Responses »
May 202010

Marcus Thames has a sprained ankle and will now miss time. I’m assuming that he will go on the Disabled List, and maybe he’ll be there by the time this is posted (being written at about quarter to ten weds. night).

So, what’s going to happen now? Presumably, Thames will be DLed and Greg Golson will be recalled to play outfield. This isn’t much of a problem, unless Nick Swisher’s left bicep is still feeling bad. If it is, the Yankee outfield will have absolutely zero power. If Swisher is feeling better, which he likely is and he’ll probably be in the lineup tonight, then the Yankees can put him back in right, Randy Winn will stay in left, and Greg Golson will be the fourth outfielder.

I’m not a huge Golson fan, but as a defensive replacement and/or pinch runner, he’s a good option. The dude can flat out fly, so he can add value there. With Curtis Granderson running and taking batting practice, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. His return will push Randy Winn back to the bench and will push Greg Golson back to the minor leagues.

With Posada out, could Montero get the call?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:22 am 15 Responses »
May 202010

In case you missed it, Yankee Manager Joe Girardi announced during last night’s postgame that Jorge Posada’s MRI showed a hairline fracture in his foot, and will be out 3-4 weeks as a result. Jorge’s name will be added to the already long list of Yankee injuries that includes Nick Swisher, Nick Johnson, Curtis Granderson, and Alfredo Aceves. Marcus Thames also left yesterday’s game early with an injury, but was diagnosed with an ankle sprain and is listed as day to day. So the Yanks currently have no backup Catcher, no regular DH and a list of uninspiring options at AAA to fill in. Let’s look at each one by one:

Jermaine Dye-First, let’s quickly dispose of any ideas that Dye would be a fit. I’d love his bat coming off the bench, and given his defensive liabilities he’d be a good fit as a DH. But signing him would mean he’d need minimum 2-3 weeks to get ready, at which point Jorge will be a few days from returning. Even if he’s kept himself in good shape (we have no idea if he has) there’s a difference between playing shape and gym work. This one just doesn’t work in terms of timing.

Austin Romine-This one gets dismissed even faster than Dye. He’s in AA and they have at least 3 other Catchers ahead of him on the positional depth chart.

Chad Moeller-Many pundits had him as the likeliest choice last night. Moeller’s a MLB veteran and a defensive specialist who you know can handle a pitching staff. But the Yanks already have a premium defender in Cervelli. What they really need is a DH who can catch if necessary, and that’s Montero. But Jesus has his own issues, which I’ll address next.

Jesus Montero-Off to a slow start this year, there were rumblings he reported into camp out of shape and has yet to get it going. He’s already been benched for lack of hustle in Durham, but has also been reported to be making big strides in his throwing from behind the plate of late. The Yanks may want to keep that defensive momentum going, and not reward him with promotion after doing little to deserve it thus far. He’s the best fit, but it would be very hard to do considering the season he’s had.

Neither Moeller or Montero is on the Yanks 40-Man roster so calling one up would mean you risk losing whoever he replaces. From that end, Chad Huffman strikes me as a likely choice of the one to go. Pitching is too fragile and bullpens are too volatile, so you can’t cut loose any of your arms at this point of the year. The Yanks like Greg Golson as pinch runner/late inning defensive replacement and have already called him up once this season. At Jeter’s age, you can’t lose the one pure SS you have at AAA in Eduardo Nunez. Kevin Russo had a very good season in Scranton last year and has the defensive flexibility that makes him too valuable to lose.

Let’s define what the need is. The Yanks already have an outstanding defensive Catcher in Cervelli. Nick Johnson and Jorge Posada were the everyday DH’s, and both have gone down with injuries. A DH who can catch would be the best fit for the club, and that’s Montero. But he’s had too many issues in AAA this year to reward him with a big league promotion and he’s too important to the team’s future to screw up his development. You want to promote a player when he has nothing left to prove at that level, and Jesus is far from that goal both with his glove and bat. My money’s on Moeller getting the call.

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