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Sabathia's Release Point

Posted by Stephen R. at 3:30 pm 3 Responses »
May 152010

CC Sabathia had a rather subpar outing Thursday afternoon in Detroit against the Tigers. On an overcast and rainy afternoon, he lasted 6 innings, giving up nine hits and six earned runs, walking none and striking out four. Pitchers have bad outings, and Sabathia’s 2010 numbers aren’t exactly mediocre – 47.1 IP, 3.04 ERA (4.16 FIP), 34 Ks and 16 BB. What went wrong on Thursday afternoon? Let’s take a look at his Pitch F(x) data, courtesy of Brooks Baseball.  We can’t exactly blame the velocity:

Here we see that Sabathia’s fastball averaged 93.72 and maxed out at 95. These numbers are largely in line with his past norms. Sabathia also maintained his velocity well as the game progressed, even into the sixth inning when he gave up his three final runs. There may be a culprit, though, in Sabathia’s release point.  Here is his release point from Thursday, May 13th:

Sabathia Release Point 5/13

Now compare this to his release points on his rain-shortened outing against Boston on May 8th (4.2 IP, 4H, 3ER, 2BB, 4Ks):

Sabathia Release Point 050810

And his solid start against Baltimore on May 3rd (8 IP, 6H, 1ER, 2Ks).

Sabathia Release Point 050310

It can be difficult to discern the difference, so I created an animated GIF that may make it easier:

Release Point Gif

Again, here are the respective stat lines for each outing:

5/3: 8IP, 6H, 1ER, 2BB, 2K

5/8: 4.2IP, 4H, 3ER, 2BB, 4K

5/13: 6IP, 9H, 6ER, 0BB, 4K

On May 3rd, which was his best outing of the three, Sabathia’s release point is clustered higher and more closely to the vertical axis. On the 8th, he stays close to the vertical axis like on the 3rd, but drops the release point a few inches. Then on the 13th, his worst outing of the three, his release point is further to the right and lower.

For comparative purposes, I also created a gif with his outings from 4/10 and 4/16.  Both of those outings were stellar.  I also included his bad start from Thursday the 13th.

2nd release point

Here were the respective stat lines for those outings:

4/10: 7.2, 1H, 0ER, 2BB, 5K

4/16: 6 IP, 3H, 1ER, 0BB, 9K

5/13: 6 IP, 9H, 6ER, 0BB, 5K

Here we see that in his outing against Tampa Bay he featured a release point more similar to his outing on 5/3 in terms of horizontal location, if it a bit lower.  On 4/16, his release point is slightly higher, but also slightly further to the right.  Then on 5/13, we see a lower release point further to the right.

Ideally, I’d like to take every outing from this year and create one giant .gif file with all the release points with the stat lines superimposed over the image at the bottom for reference.  Alas though, I am merely working with some free .gif software right now, software which limits me to three images.

That said, it seems to me that Sabathia has better results when he features a higher vertical release point and/or a release point closer to the horizontal axis.  I say and/or because he seems capable of having decent outings with a release point slightly lower and “closer” or higher and “further out”.  The one thing that does seem obvious, though, is that he struggles when his release point is lower and further out.  Unless he’s shifting on the rubber from outing to outing, it would seem that featuring a lower arm angle in the bad outings.  Ostensibly, this would result in less downward plane on his pitches, and it would also enable batters to see his pitches sooner and thus get a better read on what’s coming.  Regardless, it does seem that CC struggles a bit more when his release point is lower and further out, despite being able to generate good velocity on his pitches.  Perhaps this is what it means when pitchers say they are “out of whack” mechanically. It’s certainly something worth checking on as the year progresses.

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Bulls on Parade

Posted by Stephen R. at 12:30 pm 12 Responses »
May 152010

chamberlain

Looks like 2007 Joba is back.

After losing the fifth starter competition to Phil Hughes in Spring Training, Joba Chamberlain quickly “earned’ the 8th inning role.  I say “earned” because to me there was never much doubt that the Yankees wanted to use him as the setup man to Mariano.  Early on in the year, Joba struggled and his velocity was a bit unimpressive.  His fastball was coming in around 92-93 mph, closer to where it normally would sit when he was a starter. There’s no reason why Joba couldn’t succeed at that level, but some wondered if he would regain his plus-velocity as the year progressed.

Whether Joba was simply warming up, working out some mechanical issues, or settling into his role in the bullpen, I can’t say.  However, he is quickly becoming a shutdown force.  On the year, Joba has thrown 16.2 IP, allowed 12 hits, 4 ER, walked 5 and struck out 21.  His 11.34 K/9 is second only on the team to David Robertson (12.54) and represents his highest mark since his 2007 campaign.  He’s also limiting the walks, to the tune of 2.70 BB/9, which leaves him with a splendid 4.20 K/BB ratio.

From a peripheral standpoint, Joba’s  BABIP is a bit lower than his career average (.297 v. .318), but his FIP isn’t drastically out of line with his ERA, which suggests that Chamberlain hasn’t benefited from an unusual amount of luck.  His strand rate is a bit high (83% in 2010 vs. a career average of 75.6%), but this is mostly nitpicking.  The fact is that Chamberlain has been exceptionally good in 2010, and even better as of late.  In his last eight outings, he has pitched 7.1 innings, giving up 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks and striking out 11. In short, Joba is dominating.

Last night he was brought into the eighth inning and performed about as well as you could ask, striking out the side on 14 pitches and employing his old nasty slider.  According to Brooks Baseball, Chamberlain averaged 94.8 mph on his fastball and maxed out at 96.1 mph, and threw his slider at 87 mph. As you can see here, he saved his hardest fastball for the end of the inning, using it to set up his last strikeout, on a slider.

Joba velo chart 051410

It’s early in the year, but it looks like Joba Chamberlain is back to his dominant ways out of the bullpen.  I’d certainly prefer it if he were a starter, racking up innings and getting comfortable in the role, but the organization appears to prefer him in the bullpen, at least for 2010.  If that’s going to be the case, it’s good to see that he is thriving in the role. With Mariano manning the ninth, opponents are going to find that it gets late awful early against the Yankees.

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Damaso Marte's inherited runners

Posted by Steve S. at 7:56 am 2 Responses »
May 152010

Marte's in, start the merry-go-round

Going into last night’s game, a quick glance at Damaso Marte’s numbers would make most fans think he was having a reasonably good year for a Lefty specialist. 7 IP, 3.86 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. But fans who watch the games closely and remember his contributions will have a different impression of those same outings. A relievers job is to get outs and strand runners on base. Marte had 7 Inherited Runners going into last night’s game, 3 of whom have come around to score. By contrast, last year he inherited 21 runners, only 3 scored for the entire season. Last night he came into the game with Denard Span on 2nd base and allowed him to score on a Mauer single. Mauer’s a great player, no real shame in that. He then allowed his own runner to score on a double by Morneau. Morneau’s a terrific player too, but you have to get somebody out. So for the 2010 season, he has now entered games with 8 inherited runners, half of whom have scored, which needless to say is abysmal.

That’s why some fans have been calling for either his head, or for his leash to be much, much shorter. That being said, I really didn’t disagree with Girardi’s moves last night. The Twins lineup is very Lefty-heavy in the middle of the order, after the M&M boys you have the dangerous Jason Kubel batting 6th. I’m also not all that excited at the prospect of seeing Boone Logan, who hasn’t been much better (1.74 WHIP). Damaso job is to get those batters out, and he simply hasn’t been doing it.

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