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Teixeira, luck or approach?

Posted by Chris H. at 7:00 pm 3 Responses »
May 142010

According to batting average on balls in play (BABIP), Yankees slugger, Mark Teixeira, is currently the unluckiest first baseman in baseball (with 140 plate appearances or more). Though his career BABIP is a healthy .305, Teixeira’s season number is significantly lower than that, sitting at .202. Examining his other statistics this year, there are few anomalies to consider outside of BABIP, as Teixeira’s walk rate, strikeout rate, batted ball percentages (liner, grounder, fly), and contact rates are all inline with established norms. There might be slight deviations – his contact rate is a bit higher than his historical average – however, there are no highs or lows that would work towards explaining the rough patch he is currently in. Therefore, perhaps his extremely low BABIP – often analogous with luck, and in this case, bad luck – is the main tell-all here. It is the only revealing stat, really.

If we dig a bit deeper and further probe the data, we might be able to find a better explanation than just luck, as it is a tremendously abstract – and for some, hollow – concept. Gazing over the stats, we see that Teixeira has had a particularly ill-fated stretch against right-handers this year. On the season, he is currently batting .157/.299/.281 as a left-handed hitter and his BABIP against righties is .169 (versus a career BABIP of .290). Is that luck? It could be, indeed. However, if we look at where Teixeira is hitting the ball – right field, center field, left field – the picture becomes clearer. As a left-hander, Teixeira has posted an .865 OPS to right field, i.e., he is pulling the ball fairly well. Beyond that, though, batting lefty, Teixeira owns a .222 OPS and .227 OPS to left and center field. For comparison’s sake, his career OPS batting to left is .712 and his OPS to center is .943. Obviously, his stats this season are not inline with those marks.

This is an issue I have alluded to before. Given these numbers, it seems reasonable to say that Teixeira is pull-happy. Don’t get me wrong, of course, as I am sure bad luck has something to do with it as well (to a certain degree). But, bad luck and a bad approach have likely intersected here. Whatever the case may be, Teixeira has shown signs of breaking out this month. He has a .955 OPS in May, and you can see that he is trying to hit some balls away and up the middle as a left-handed hitter. Still, whether he has actively changed his approach or his bad luck is finally beginning to turn – or maybe there has been a combination of these two – is uncertain.

Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images

Evaluating Nick Swisher's fielding

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm 4 Responses »
May 142010

Let’s check in on Nick Swisher for a moment, shall we? Specifically, let’s take a look at his defense on the year. In 2009, Swisher posted a -2.6 UZR/150 (-1.5 UZR) in his first season as the Yankees’ full-time right fielder. It was an average line, although I’m sure many Yankee fans had actually pegged Swisher for a bad fielder given his often adventurous routes. This season, thus far, Swisher’s UZR/150 stands at -0.4 in right (-1.1 UZR). Basically, he has been an average right fielder, according to UZR. In addition, his RZR isn’t great at .854 but his OOZ is pretty solid at 16, so perhaps he falls in between (he is still average).

Now, I am actually surprised by Swisher’s rating on the year and, to be honest, I think most fans, even those who were taken aback by his fielding in 2009, would agree. Is it just me or has Swisher looked excellent in right field this season? He is making accurate throws (for the most part), he has been appropriately aggressive (checking runners), and his range, in particular – especially down the line – has been very good. His UZR is neutral, however.

Maybe my love for Swisher is simply clouding my judgment. That could be the case. What have you thought about his defense? Has he looked good, bad, or just average out in right?

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Lee v. Carpenter Shows How Silly The Unwritten Rules Are

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 2 Responses »
May 142010

From bnd.com, courtesy of BBTF:

Carpenter called out Houston’s Carlos Lee after Lee popped out to shortstop in the third inning of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 4-1 loss to the Astros.

Lee was frustrated with his at-bat, expressing it in a way Carpenter didn’t appreciate. The two exchanged words as the benches and bullpens emptied. Plate umpire Jim Joyce then issued warnings to both teams.

“It wasn’t a big deal,” Carpenter said. “I don’t know why it turned into a big deal.”

Carpenter, a fierce competitor, implied that players from both teams have become too soft in their relationships with one another.

“I guess it’s turned into we’re all supposed to be best friends in this game,” Carpenter said. “That’s what (Lee) did. I said something, he said something. He kept coming at it. He’s the one that caused everybody to come out, not me.”

Lee said Carpenter yelled something after allowing Lance Berkman’s RBI single before Lee came to the plate.
“I guess he’s allowed to yell and say anything he wants, because when Lance got that hit he was screaming and yelling and saying all kinds of stuff,” Lee said. “He can get emotional and we can’t get emotional as hitters?”
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa blamed Lee for the disagreement escalating.

“It’s really an unfortunate thing to get Carp highlighted there,” La Russa said. “Pence hits the ball out of the ballpark. Carp didn’t make a good pitch. Carp doesn’t say a word. He doesn’t say anything to the guy that hit it. It’s his mistake.

“Well, routinely now, hitters pop up a pitch they think they should deal with and they start making noises, and that really is disrespectful to the pitcher. Most of the pitchers just turn around and ignore it. Carp doesn’t. I think Carp’s right, and I think Carp’s in the right. Respect should go both ways.

“If he gets you out, he gets you out. Zip it and go back to the plate. If he gives it up, you zip it and let the guy go around the bases — or single, double, whatever it was. Most pitchers let the guy jabber. I don’t think Carlos Lee is anything special as far as a guy who disrespects, but it’s so common now. Carp will let you know.”

So Player A thinks a certain action was a sign of disrespect, while Player B has no idea what the guy is talking about, nor do most fans. Hmm, where have I heard that before?

This story, coupled with the Dallas Braden silliness, just displays how silly the unwritten code of baseball is. Players take themselves so seriously that they expect the opposition to be automatons who never celebrate or get frustrated. Baseball is the only sport where excitement, joy, and frustration are taboo, and the refrain of “be a professional” means to take a business-like approach to what is, at heart, an enjoyable game. Players simply need to grow up and ignore the fistpumps and bat-slams of the opposing team, and focus on doing their own jobs and regulating their own behavior. The “Code” is a nebulous group of self-important, undefined rules that allow players like Carpenter and Braden to justify their own actions by disparaging the actions of others. It is time to let it fade into oblivion.

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ARod is just fine

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
May 142010

ARod Homers off Nathan in 2009 ALDS Game 2

Pictured: My all-time favorite Alex Rodriguez moment, his game-tying home run in Game 2 of the ALDS off Nathan

Much has been made of Mark Teixeira’s slow start this year, and rightfully so. Teixeira was an offensive vortex in the three hole for the entire month of April, posting a .136/.300/.259 line. But while Teixeira’s struggles received a lot of attention, it’s worth noting that Alex Rodriguez has had a bit of a peculiar and underwhelming start to the year as well.

So far, Rodriguez is hitting .272 with a .361 on-base percentage and a .440 slugging percentage. This is well below his career average of .304/.389/.573. There’s no need to panic, though.  Firstly, the difference in his batting average can largely be explained by a BABIP of .290, which sits about 30 points below his career average of .321.  That’s right, the Gods of BABIP have been robbing him of some hits.  The good news is that his line-drive percentage is 19.1%, a tick higher than his career average of 18.3%.  This means that he’s still hitting balls with the same authority that he has in the past, but just isn’t seeing them fall in for hits.  The only troubling sign is that his ground-ball percentage has crept up slightly (45.5% vs. a career average of 41.9%) at the expense of his fly-ball percentage (35.5% vs. a career average of 39.9%). This isn’t a huge trend, especially given his LD%, but it bears watching going forward. ARod’s lower OBP appears to be driven by his troubles with BABIP as well, as his walk rate currently sits at 12.2%, 1% higher than his career average.  So as some of those line drives start falling in for hits, Rodriguez’s average and on-base percentage should rise back up to his career norms.

From a power perspective, it’d be easy to say that Rodriguez is experiencing an outage. His slugging percentage is .440, the lowest he’s notched since 1995 when he played 41 games with the Mariners, and his ISO (SLG-AVG) .168, a full hundred points lower than his career average. Is there a reason to fret? I’d say no, for this reason:

Anything in 2010 stand out to you? Anything at all? How about his HR/FB ratio, which is an incredible 15.7% lower than his career average? This is an outlier, pure and simple, and you don’t need a Masters in Statistics to know that it ought to regress to the mean, given that other relevant metrics like LD% have stayed static.  Additionally, ARod has cut his strikeouts down so far in 2010, from 14.4% in 2010.  In sum, Rodriguez is going to be fine.  He’s walking more, striking out less, and hitting the ball with just as much force as he has in the past. As his fly balls start leaving the park and avoid the glove of Brennan Boesch, and as some of his line drives turn into singles and doubles, we ought to see his AVG, OBP and SLG fall right back into line. It would be OK with me if that process started tonight.

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More on Runs per 100 Pitches

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 5 Responses »
May 142010

First off, I want to thank everyone who commented, both positively and negatively on yesterday’s article. I really appreciate your insights.

Moving on, I know that such a system is not perfect, since it has many limitations: A 5 inning, 5 walk, 4 hit, somehow-no-runs, 100 pitches performance looks the same as a perfect game. Conversely, a one inning disaster, think Johan vs. the Phillies, can sway performance wildly. Basically, all segments of 100 pitches are not created equally.

Still, I want to take a look at it over a whole season, because I’m curious as to whom it will overrate, underrate, and get right. I’ll compare the Runs per 100 Pitches number to the pitcher’s ERA/FIP/tRA and see if it comes close to any of those, though I doubt it will come close to the latter two. After all, I’m not accounting for hit type or weighing anything differently. Let’s see what happens when I apply this pseudo-stat to the 2009 Yankee starters. I have a feeling it’s definitely going to overrate the pitchers.

CC Sabathia
R/100P: 2.67
ERA: 3.37
FIP: 3.39
tRA: 3.70

A.J. Burnett
R/100P: 2.86
ERA: 4.04
FIP: 4.33
tRA: 4.88

Andy Pettitte:
R/100P: 3.07
ERA: 4.15
FIP: 4.16
tRA: 4.77

Joba Chamberlain (not including relief outing):
R/100P: 3.45
ERA: 4.75
FIP: 4.82
tRA: 5.30

Alright, what’ve we got? Well, we’ve got something really, really stupid. My first attempt at stat making? Epic Fail.

I thought this would be something worth trying, considering the importance of the 100 pitch mark in today’s game and lack of nine inning performances by starters, but it was not to be. Live and learn, right? I think I’ll leave the stat-making up to the big guys from now on.

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Nick Johnson's On-DL%

Posted by Steve S. at 7:27 am 9 Responses »
May 142010

Didn't take long to find this one

When Nick Johnson signed with the Yanks this past off season, much was made about his keen batting eye and his robust .424 On-Base% from last year. Much was also made about the fact that he’s always hurt, and how much time he’s missed since becoming a MLB ‘regular’. Just to have a little fun, I wanted to calculate a new stat for Nick called ‘On-DL%’ which will compare how many games he was available to play in, and how many he actually did by dividing his number of games played by the total played by his team. This won’t be precise, it may include days off that all starting players will get, but we’ll just assume something was hurting Nick those days. I will include his minor league games in 2001 and 2002, since that was the beginning of his MLB career. But I’m not including minor league rehab games after that, because he was still lost to his MLB club at that time. Here goes:

Total Games played by Johnson 2001-2010-907

Total Games played by MLB club-1492

On-DL%- .392

Amazingly enough, his .392 On-DL% is almost identical to his career .401 OBP, displaying remarkable consistency across every facet of his game. Perhaps by year’s end he can get both to line up perfectly. He’s well on his way.

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