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Gardner's approach -- just slap it to left field

Posted by Chris H. at 7:34 pm 2 Responses »
May 112010

If you’ve watched most of the Yankees’ games this year, the spray chart below probably isn’t much of a surprise.

Whenever Gardner gets a hit, most of the time he finds a way to slap the ball to left field, just over the head of the third baseman, or he hits a knee-high pitch just over the second base bag. This is captured further by batted ball data, as Gardner’s line drive percentage to left is 21% while his LD percentage to center is 18%. Meanwhile, his LD percentage to right field, where the fewest hits tend to fall, is just 10% (a related note—his ground ball percentage to right is a high 70%). As a left-handed hitter with no real pull power, this approach makes sense for Gardner.

The funny thing is, because of his speed, third basemen can’t really adjust to his manner of hitting. If they were to play a step back and closer to the grass, where they could possibly snare one of Gardner’s slappy liners, they would then be more susceptible to a bunt single (pitchers might eventually pitch to him differently, though). At the end of the season, it will be interesting to see who will have gone to the other field more often, Gardner or Derek Jeter.

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Advocating Signing Elijah Dukes, Again

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 27 Responses »
May 112010

I have long advocated that the Yankees give Elijah Dukes a shot on their bench. With Curtis Granderson hurt, Randy Winn struggling, and Marcus Thames occupying the DH slot, the time is right for the addition of another bat. Yes, I know the offense is just fine and that the Yankees are a playoff team without Dukes. But the difference between Dukes and Winn could make a difference in October, and unlike other external bench options, it will not cost the Yankees any players to obtain Dukes.

I outlined the pros and cons during the offseason:

PROS

1) He has plenty of talent: He had a poor 2009 that was marred by injury and a strange loss of power, but his 2008 was fantastic and suggested that he was a star in the making. I am not really sure why he fell of a cliff in 2009, but it is clear that he has the skills and athleticism to be an above average player with the bat and adequate with the glove.

2) He projects to be better than the Yankees current options at 4th and 5th outfielder. His projected wOBA based on an average of four projection systems is .346, significantly better than that of Marcus Thames and Randy Winn.

3) This is a good fit for Dukes: While he may not start right away, New York is likely his best shot to play in a winning environment for the first time while also affording him a reasonable chance of grabbing a starting spot. Being that Dukes has played for two awful franchises thus far, it might be a strong motivator for him to play with regularity for a winner.

4) He’s cheap, you can cut ties immediately if there is a problem, and he gives them options next offseason: Dukes will likely require less than a million dollars to sign, and can be stashed in the minors if he does not make the team immediately. Furthermore, there is no real downside here. If he acts up or plays poorly, he can simply be cut or traded without any repercussions.

CONS

1) His performance dropped in 2009, and he cannot stay healthy: His performance in 2009 was fairly shoddy, and he gained a reputation amongst National fans for having poor baseball instincts in the field and on the basepaths. Furthermore, Dukes has had trouble staying on the field, with 4 stints on the DL over the last 2 seasons. Then again, if he gets hurt, the Yankees would simply be right back where they are right now.

2) There are some very serious behavioral issues. I do not want to sweep these under the rug, because Elijah has had some serious issues that include multiple arrests and prompted the Nationals to hire someone to follow him around and keep him out of trouble. Furthermore, dropping that a player with that sort of history into the shark tank that is the NY media frenzy may not be the brightest of ideas.

Ultimately, I think it is worth a shot. As I noted above, if Dukes does not work out, the club is right back where they started and can go look for other options. If he succeeds, the Yankees will have obtained a young power bat for practically nothing. Why not give him a shot?

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Valverde's Histrionics and Joba's Fist Pumps

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
May 112010

Anyone watching last night’s 9th inning was treated to an odd sight. Tigers closer Jose Valverde looked fantastic, striking out Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez in succession to finish the game. What was odd was that after each strikeout, Valverde did a little dance off the mound and a fistpump. Take a look at these stills, taken from the conclusion of each at-bat, where you can see Valverde in mid gyration:


As a Yankees fan that has long defended Joba Chamberlain’s fist pumps as a reasonable outpouring of emotion, I have absolutely no standing to get on Valverde, even though fist-pumping after each out is more over the top than anything Joba, Papelbon, K-Rod, and anyone else in the “expressive on the mound” category has ever done. I am not a huge fan of showing up your opponent, but I do not think expressing emotion should be taken that way. This game needs some characters, and it certainly needs an injection of fun. Everybody needs to just relax and realize that this is a game played for entertainment purposes.

My issue is with the media and fans who constantly criticize Joba for the fist pumps, as well as the players that have publicly taken umbrage with Joba’s antics (see Aubrey Huff). From what I am told, this is nothing new with Valverde, yet it is the first time that I am hearing of it. Where are the mocking jokes from fans and broadcasters about Valverde’s little dance? Why hasn’t there been a full episode of Baseball Tonight dedicated to his histrionics (rather than just a brief mention)? Why haven’t beat writers interviewed former players and Hall of Famers to see where they stand on Valverde’s actions?

Ultimately, Joba has long been victim of a double standard, whereby other players can do the same thing as Joba and do not get nearly the same amount of flak. Frankie Cervelli pumps his fist all game, and no one says anything about it except to gush about how intense he is and how invested he becomes in the games. Meanwhile, Joba gets dubbed as a guy with a “ten cent head” who cannot control his emotions. The same people who celebrate intensity on the mound and ask for him to be a “bull in the china shop” coming out of the bullpen then want him to temper those emotions once he succeeds.

It is time to treat Joba Chamberlain like everybody else. If you do not like celebrations on the mound, criticize the others, such as Valverde, who are doing it as well. Until then, just stop the hypocrisy and leave Joba alone.

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Winn Must Improve

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 7 Responses »
May 112010

Perhaps this is unfair to him because I’m writing this right after Winn’s infield fly ball in the 8th inning was the biggest WPA swing of the game, but Winn needs to step it up. Quickly.

With the injury to Curtis Granderson, Winn is going to be seeing a lot more playing time. As of right now, his line sits at .190/.250/.308. If this doesn’t start trending upwards in a timely manner, left field will become a black hole for the Bombers. Granted, they have the offense to make up for a bad bat.

Of course, it’s worth noting that Winn’s BABIP sits at .222 right now, and his career mark is .100 points higher than that. So, we should expect a correction soon. I should also mention that Randy’s line drive percentage is at a solid 21.1%, so maybe the hits will begin to fall. He is hitting a lot of balls on the ground at this point (57.9%), so that could show us that maybe he’s not hitting the ball as hard as his LD% suggests. Still, the low BABIP and good LD% shows us that something could be coming for Winn. However, if Winn doesn’t start to experience a correction soon, it may be time to let him go and call up someone else.

So, whom could the Yankees elect to bring up if Winn doesn’t get better and they need someone to fill in?

The first option is Greg Golson because he’s on the 40 man roster and has been up. I’m not a big believer in his bat (.667 OPS at SWB in ’10), but if he could add some defense from his ridiculous speed, it’d be more than what we’ve seen of Winn.

The second option, and only other outfield option on the 40 man is Chad Huffman. He’s OPSing .727 at Scranton right now (.300/.427).

If the Yankees do grow weary of Winn, it’s likely that they’ll eat his salary and designate him for assignment, thus opening a spot on the 40 man for an outfielder. First in that line would be Colin Curtis. After being left unprotected for the Rule V Draft, Curtis has hit well. He tore up the Arizona Fall League and played well in Spring Training and is currently raking in Scranton to the tune of an .875 OPS. Next would be David Winfree, who’s hitting well, too. His AAA OPS sits at .837. These two are already knocking on the door and the moer Winn struggles, the louder those knocks will be.

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07 Joba makes appearence in Yankee loss

Posted by Steve S. at 7:06 am 11 Responses »
May 112010

Last night we saw an old friend, one we haven’t seen in quite a while. Someone who many of us wondered if he even existed anymore. One who lit up radar guns and set the world of Baseball on fire back in 2007. A pitcher who blew away hitters with his high 90s fastball and buckled their knees with a devastating high 80s slider.  Yankee fans welcomed him with glee and opposing batters would be greeted with his patented ‘Good morning, good afternoon, and good night’.

The first batter he faced was Scott Sizemore, and he went 96-97-97-97 and struck him out on three swings and misses. The next batter was Gerald Laird, who managed to see 6 pitches and foul off two but struck out looking. The final batter was Adam Everett, who looked completely over matched, striking out swinging on 4 pitches. All totaled Joba threw 14 pitches and hit 98 three times during Adam Everett’s at-bat.

Questions were raised on air by Kay about the radar gun, which also seemed to have every Detroit reliever throwing somewhere between 97-101 MPH. But don’t shortchange that Tigers bullpen, it’s currently the best in Baseball and the best in the AL by a wide margin. Zumaya throwing triple-digit heat should surprise no one, he’s been doing it for years. Gameday had Joba sitting at the same 96-98 MPH with little variation pitch by pitch. It was for real, and hopefully was a sign of things to come.

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Minors Report 5/10

Posted by Eric Schultz at 2:15 am 3 Responses »
May 112010

Who’s Hot

  • Austin Romine is off to a scorching start for AA Trenton, putting up a .326/.396/.516 line on the season, for a nifty .912 OPS.  Romine has started off the month of May relatively slowly in the average department, only hitting .267 (compared to .354 in April).   However, Romine has flashed more power in May, slugging .567 (compared to .492 in April).  With all the attention heaped on Jesus Montero, Romine has sometimes fallen under the radar, but if he continues to hit like this he will shoot up prospect lists.  He is hitting above .300 against both lefties and righties, though his high .388 BABIP may indicate that he is due for some regression in the average department.  I haven’t heard any overly negative reports on Romine’s defense this season, but going by the stats, he has improved his receiving (only 1 passed ball on the season).  His CS% of 19 is below his career average of 25, but this could improve over the season.
  • 23 year-old Hector Noesi turned in another solid start tonight for Tampa, fanning 8 in 6 innings of 2-run ball, with 4 hits allowed and no walks.  On the season, Noesi is 5-2 with a 3.08 ERA, and a stellar 47:5 k:bb ratio in 38 innings.  The strikeout to walk rate shows that Noesi has been successful commanding his low-90′s fastball, and the high strikeout rate indicates progress in his secondary offerings.  With a few more starts like this one, Noesi could find himself promoted to AA to face new challenges.  At 23 in high-A Noesi hasn’t gotten much hype, but if he pitches this well in AA, he will get noticed.

Who’s Not

  • Jesus Montero is off to a rough start in AAA Scranton, putting up a mediocre .234/.294/.362 line on the season so far, with only 2 homers, and he went 0 for 4 on the day today.  His 8:16 walk:strikeout ratio is not terrible, and does not demonstrate a major lack of discipline.  Rumors were that he turned up out of shape for spring training, and this may be a potential explanation for some of his struggles.  Another red flag was raised in the last few days when Montero was benched for not hustling, which may be the result of Montero’s frustration.  Remember folks, he’s just 20 years old and playing just one rung below the majors, but the pressure may have gotten to him a little bit.  Montero has barely struggled at any level when healthy, but he may need to make some adjustments against the more experienced opposition.  Although the average looks ugly, neutralizing his season stats for luck and park gives him a .289/.347/.433 line.  That is hardly worthy of a top 5 prospect, but it does indicate that Montero may be getting a little unlucky thus far.  His line drive rate of over 20% would usually correspond to a higher BABIP than the .278 he has posted this season (though it should be noted that minor league line drive rates are potentially unreliable).  Once Montero gets his head together and gets more comfortable with AAA pitching, I expect him to start posting impressive numbers again.  At age 20, though, there is reason to believe that he is still improving and making adjustments, so it’s too early to panic.
  • Although Andrew Brackman seems to have tamed the control problems that plagued him last season (with only 1 walk in 15+ innings this season), he has been absolutely tattooed by Florida State League hitters this season.  In 15 2/3 innings, the tall righty has given up 20 earned runs on 29 hits, good for an ugly 11.49 ERA.  Brackman has simply been too hittable, unable to throw his fastball by hitters or use his curveball as an effective strikeout pitch.  I’m not sure he has his mid-90′s velocity currently (and he may never have it again), so he will need to work on his command (not just control) if he is going to be an effective starter going forward.  One potential positive for Brackman is that he has kept the ball on the ground, with a 2.55 GO/GO ratio.  The bad news: a lot of those ground balls are becoming hits, and his BABIP against of .444 is likely unsustainable.  His 3.27 FIP also supports the notion that he has been unlucky, and that with better infield defense behind him, his numbers might improve a decent amount.

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