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Good Josh, Bad Josh?

Posted by Stephen R. at 4:30 pm 6 Responses »
May 082010

AJ Burnett has the reputation for being able to throw a no-hitter or a complete bomb every time he takes the mound. His stuff is excellent but often unpredictable.  If he locates his fastball and can command his “hook”, as he likes to call it, then batters beware.  If he can’t, then he sometimes gets lit up in spectacular fashion.  Blue Jays fans and Yankees fans have a name for this Jekyl and Hyde act: Good AJ/Bad AJ.

On Twitter two weeks ago, JMK the Overshare asked if any pitcher other than Burnett lived entirely by the “good/bad” moniker.  Oliver Perez, Carlos Zambrano and Cole Hamels were tossed out, and I suggested Josh Beckett.  Is this fair?  Let us find out!

First, the methodology.  I’ve evaluated every start by Burnett and Beckett in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and classifying them as either Good, Bad or Average.  Over that time period, Burnett made 99 starts and Beckett made 95. As a side note, would you have guessed that Burnett’s made more regular season starts than Beckett since the start of the 2007 season?  I would not have.

Using Baseball Reference’s fantastic Play Index, I searched between 2007 and 2010 and discovered that there were 15,456 total starts.  Of those starts, 3,567 had a WPA of over 0.200, a percentage of 23.1%. Conversely, 3,878 had a WPA of under -0.200, a percentage of 25.1%.  Using these cutoffs, I classified Burnett and Beckett’s starts.  Any start with a WPA of over 0.200 received a “Good”.  Any start with a WPA of below -0.200 would receive a “Bad”.  Anything in between would receive an “Average”.

The average WPA for Burnett’s 99 starts is 0.045, and the standard deviation on that range is 0.261.  For Beckett, the average WPA for his 95 starts is 0.068, or .023 higher, and the standard deviation on that range is 0.25.  Off the bat, this shows us that Beckett averages a higher WPA per start and has a less extreme distribution of range.  By applying the .200/-.200 labels, we see that in 2007-2010 Burnett had 19 Bad starts, 47 Average starts, and 33 good Starts. In the same time period, Beckett had 18 Bad starts, 45 Average starts, and 32 good starts. They appear strikingly similar.

From there I ran the same calculations for Jon Lester and CC Sabathia, neither of whom have the same Jekyl and Hyde reputation.  Here’s what I found:

Here we see, and note that I’m excluding Lester’s 2007 campaign, that Sabathia has a roughly similar Average Start percentage, but less Bad starts and more Good starts.  Lester, however has both a higher Good and Bad percentage.  We might conclude here that Lester deserves the Jekyl and Hyde moniker more than any of the four, but I think that would be inaccurate.  Here’s why:

When you dive into the underlying information behind the bad starts, you see that Burnett has a higher average Bad Start score than anyone at -0.337. Behind him is Beckett with a -0.329.  On the Good side, Sabathia has the highest Average score with 0.375 with Lester right behind him at 0.361.  Burnett comes in third, with Beckett in last.  To me this shows that Burnett does indeed have a high upside and downside risk, confirming what fans have long thought.  Josh Beckett has a strong element of Jekyl/Hyde in him as well, something that was illustrated perfectly last night at Fenway when he dominated through the first few innings before collapsing in the sixth.  CC Sabathia and Jon Lester have fantastic Good scores, but seem to avoid the huge explosions.  In fact, Sabathia’s Bad score would be dramatically lower if you excluded his early season struggles in 2007 and 2008.

What do you think?  Is there a better way to quantify the Jekyl and Hyde act for starting pitchers?

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In Praise of Phil Hughes

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:30 pm 6 Responses »
May 082010

So, about last night.  Let’s see, Nick Johnson went down with a wrist injury.  Josh Beckett beaned Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter and brushed back Francisco Cervelli two separate times.  Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia both screamed at Beckett from the dugout, and then Sabathia called out Dallas Braden in his postgame interview.  Somewhere in the midst of all the crazy was Phil Hughes, who pitched a gem.  Facing the Red Sox in Boston, Hughes straight dominant.  Over 7 innings, Hughes threw 101 pitches, 70 of which were strikes.  He allowed seven hits and two earned runs, striking out seven and walking only one.  Hughes was also able to keep his head about him in a hostile environment, while Josh Beckett folded like a cheap tent before our eyes.

One of the most fascinating aspects to Hughes’ start was his velocity.  According to Brooks Baseball, Hughes threw 60 fastballs, averaging 94.29 mph and maxing out at 96 mph.  He complemented his heater by throwing 29 cutters, which averaged 89.70 mph and maxed out at 92 mph.  Hughes also threw nine curveballs and one changeup, so he was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, but used the curve to keep batters honest. He even struck out McDonald on a high curve.

As his velocity chart shows, Hughes was strongest in his first 40 pitches and then tired as the game went on.  Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that he was able to touch 94 mph on his 90th pitch.  We’ve all long heard Hughes described as a power pitcher, and saw that he had the capability to dial it up in relief, so it’s exciting to see him doing the same thing in the rotation.

Of Hughes’ seven strikeouts, my favorite was his fifth inning K of Jason Varitek, he of the C on the jersey.  He set Varitek up with a first pitch 95 mph fastball on the outside corner that Varitek took for a strike. He then jammed Varitek on the second pitch with an 89 mph cutter, getting him to swing and miss.  At 0-2, Hughes then blew a 94 mph fastball right by Varitek, who chased a ball clearly out of the zone.  In short, he made Varitek look like David Ortiz.

Hughes’ start to the season could not have gone much better.  He’s 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA over 32 innings .  He’s struck out 8.72 batters per nine innings and walked 3.66 batters per nine, leaving him with a 2.38 K/BB ratio. Sure, he’s due for some regression.  He won’t be able to maintain a .213 BABIP, and his 2.9% HR/FB perentage is due to rise back in line with his career average of 7.3%. Eventually, Hughes’ sub-2.00 ERA will rise and align more closely with his 2.76 FIP and 3.85 xFIP.  Even if that does happen, the Yankees’ fifth starter is pitching like a third starter.  If Hughes’ plus-velocity and command of his cutter can continue to result in an elite K rate, and if he is able to limit the walks, then 2010 could be a special year.  Yankee fans have waited a long time for him to show what he can do in a full season of starts, and so far he is blowing everyone away.

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Yankee Injury Situation Should Be Expected

Posted by EJ Fagan at 12:10 pm 9 Responses »
May 082010

After finishing the semester from hell, I will now be returning to 1-2 posts per day. And I’d like to start with something that I’ve been thinking about for some time.

The Yankees have had a bad week on the injury front. To recap, they are:

  • Curtis Granderson is to miss about a month with a groin pull.
  • Nick Johnson to miss an undetermined amount of time with a wrist injury.
  • Andy Pettitte to miss at least one start with elbow inflammation.
  • Jorge Posada has missed several games with a knee issue, and may miss more going forward.
  • Alex Rodriguez is dealing with a knee issue, has missed some time, and may be slumping as a result.
  • Robinson Cano may miss a few days after being hit in the knee with a Josh Beckett pitch.
  • Chan Ho Park is still on the 15-day DL with a hamstring pull.
  • Mariano Rivera has been unavailable for several days (though could have pitched yesterday) with tightness in his right side.

Its a debilitating bevy of injuries, but the Yankees have mostly held it together thanks to some of the best starting pitching and defense we’ve seen in a long time. However, the injuries are going to cost the Yankees in the future, and the Yankee starting pitching luck will eventually run out.

It seems like a lot of injuries, and some (Cano, Granderson) are legitimate bad luck. However, the injuries to the other players should be expected. A good portion of the Yankee core is really old – Posada is 38, Rivera is 40, Pettitte is 38, Arod is 34, and Chan Ho Park is 37. On top of all that, Nick Johnson is the most injury prone of the crew, despite being a bit younger.  With a lineup as risky as this one is, the team should expect their players to miss a lot of time.

The Yankees have gotten by with an incredibly lucky streak in recent years. Our old players just haven’t played like old players. But you can’t defy the odds forever. With so many aging stars on the roster, the Yankees should be prepared with effective Plan Bs to take their place. But instead of Jerry Hairston Jr. we have Ramiro Pena. Instead of Austin Jackson, we have Greg Golson. Instead of Mike Dunn, we have Boone Logan. Instead of Ian Kennedy, we have Romulo Sanchez.

Unfortunately, the team cleared a lot of their depth away in order to trade for Curtis Granderson and Javy Vazquez this offseason. I don’t think those were bad trades, because they filled necessary holes, but the team is left looking fairly light on depth right now. On top of it all, the Yankees are struggling to settle in David Robertson and Damaso Marte, two incredibly important pieces of their bullpen, and don’t have a whole lot after Mark Melancon to call up.

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Be careful about reading Josh Beckett's mind

Posted by Steve S. at 9:12 am 7 Responses »
May 082010

On last night’s YES broadcast, much was made by Michael Kay in the 6th inning about how Josh Beckett seemed “disinterested” after the Gardner walk. That he was hitting batters intentionally to force Tito Francona’s hand and get him out of a game that he no longer wanted to compete in. This sentiment was echoed by many fans around the message boards and blogosphere. Folks, be careful about trying to read Josh Beckett’s mind. The claim that he intentionally was throwing at batters last night will never be proven one way or the other, without an admission from Josh himself. Were he to do that, a suspension from Bed Selig would swiftly follow. If Kay had done his homework, he would know that Beckett has been struggling all year. He’s 1-1 with a 7.46 ERA and has given up 52 Hits in just 41 IP and his BB/9 are the highest they’ve been since his miserable 06 campaign. Boston papers are speculating about the pitcher’s ‘ sudden demise’ from last night, but that strikes me as premature. 2-pitch power pitchers like him (and AJ Burnett) are prone to the big inning and always have been.

To be sure, Josh was on his game early. He struck out 5 of the first 6 batters he faced and looked invincible. When Beckett is hitting his spots the Yanks will do little against him, he has that kind of stuff. But when good hitters like the Yanks are failing to even make contact, it can often signal some wildness which they will adjust to as the game progresses. After a strikeout, batters will typically ask the Home plate umpire if it was a ball or strike, and will re-watch the AB if they have a video terminal handy. If they see a pitcher is getting them out on balls out of the zone, they will lay off that pitch in that count the next time around. The Yanks made some nice in-game adjustments last night. When Swisher hit the 3-Run HR, he was clearly sitting on the curve after being badly fooled on it earlier in that same AB. If you noticed the curve Beckett threw was hung and right over the middle of the plate. That’s not where he wanted it, and was preceded by a Teixeira walk.

When watching a game,  look at the Catcher’s mitt. If Varitek wasn’t moving his glove and all of a sudden Cano gets plunked, you’d have a case that it was intentional. But Josh was missing his spots often last night, and was flat-out all over the place in the 6th. He gave up 3 BBs and 9 Hits  in just 5.1 IP. It appeared in the 6th that in the middle of an inning where Beckett was struggling with his control to begin with, where he already hit Cano and had a passed ball that I thought crossed up Varitek, then the Gardner intentional walk made him lose what little rhythm he had. After that AB, his shaky control was gone. Ball 4 to Cervelli was nowhere hear the plate. Jeter always crowds the plate, so I don’t even count him getting a HBP. Derek wants to shoot the ball the opposite way, so the book on him is to crowd him inside. Both hit batsman forced in Runs, so nobody can argue that Beckett plunked guys with a base open. The fact that he had the bases loaded at the time should tell you something about his ability to locate up to that point.

When you miss by 6 inches on a pitch that’s low and away, it’s a wild pitch. When you miss by 6 inches on a fastball that’s supposed to be a high and inside strike, you’re called a headhunter and fans and announcers start reading intent and body language (which they weren’t doing previously). Beckett’s demeanor on the mound is that of a cocky Texas fireballer. When he’s on, it’s characterized as the body language of a stud pitcher who’s cool under pressure. When he’s not, he’s a headhunter who doesn’t care if he hits a batter. It’s the same guy, the difference is his control. Beckett simply lost his already spotty control in the 6th, and that’s it. He had a bad inning. Everything else is unprovable mind reading and speculation.

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