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Johnson leaves game with sore wrist

Posted by Chris H. at 9:20 pm 6 Responses »
May 072010

In the 5th inning of today’s game, which is still underway, Marcus Thames pinch-hit for the Yankees’ designated hitter, Nick Johnson. In the 6th inning, we learned that Johnson had been pulled due to a “sore right wrist.” Now, this could be a big problem for the Yankees given that Johnson played in 38 games in 2008, only to miss the rest of the season after tearing a tendon in the same right wrist (I’ve written about it before). Johnson has also missed some time earlier in his career – 2003 and 2002 – with similar right wrist issues. We’ll have more info on this as it becomes available.

Has Johnson's mechanical changes hurt him?

Posted by Chris H. at 5:15 pm 3 Responses »
May 072010

Here’s an interesting bit of text via Bryan Hoch from early March:

The goal is to cut out the movement of Johnson’s back foot in the box, which should help him generate power.

“I’m just trying not to drift, trying to be more direct,” Johnson said. “I’m working on turning my back foot. When I don’t do it, I slide. That’s what I’ve done pretty much my whole career.”

The flaw was something that [Kevin] Long identified shortly after the Yankees signed Johnson to a one-year, $5.75 million contract to serve as their designated hitter, replacing World Series MVP Hideki Matsui. Clearly, there was something that could be done to make Johnson operate more efficiently.

“When I watched his film and the video, it was striking that his back foot was slipping out and collapsing,” Long said. “I thought that was one of the first areas that we’d address.”

So Johnson bunked up with Long at his Arizona home for two days over the offseason, going through the paces of a mini-hitting clinic that could open him up to the inside pitch more often.

“I just try to put a good swing on the ball,” Johnson said. “I’m not up there trying to hit homers. I just get on base and try to turn that back side, that’s all I’ve been working on.”

It’s amazing that the problem hasn’t been previously corrected, one that leaves Johnson pelting line drives over the third-base dugout when he’s going bad. It dates back as far as his first Yankees go-round, a reporter reminded Johnson humorously on Tuesday — frustrated during batting practice, shortstop Derek Jeter once yelled out, “Pull the ball, Nick!”

“I knew I always had a bad lower half,” Johnson said. “It’s something that I’ve never really gotten comfortable. I just use my hands. I watched a lot of film of guys who do it that way, so I’m looking forward to that.”

I know Long and Johnson were working towards “correcting” the back leg issue, however, I also wonder if Johnson’s early season struggles are at all tied to the decision to alter what he has admittedly done for his entire career. Even if his stance is not perfect from a mechanical point of view, one could argue that it has worked for him offensively. Perhaps modifying his stance has been counterproductive, as it is forcing Johnson to do something that he isn’t particularly comfortable with. In this sense, Johnson would be the anti-Nick Swisher (Swisher’s stance change is working). Now, I don’t know whether or not this could be true, rather, I’m just speculating for discussion’s sake.

What do you think? Is it possible Johnson tried to adjust and, instead of helping, it has hurt him?

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Discussion: How Does A GM Want Traded Prospects To Perform?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 11 Responses »
May 072010


This was a thought that I saw posted elsewhere over the last few days, but cannot remember where I saw it first. If this was your point, I apologize for not linking to you.

With Austin Jackson performing incredibly well in Detroit, Ian Kennedy looking good in Arizona, and Arodys Vizcaino getting glowing reviews from scouts, many have suggested that Brian Cashman must be hoping for a regression from these players. As the Yankee ends of these trades struggle, Cashman begins to look bad to those making very hasty evaluations of those deals, and is only escaping significant criticism due to the team’s strong play. It seems only natural that he would want those players to fail, making him look like a genius who consistently wins trades. However, I think that there is a flip side to this situation, one that fans often fail to consider.

After Moneyball was released, Billy Beane supposedly had a hard time making trades with the freedom that he had previously, because the book presented him as a genius that always won trades. Opposing General Managers eventually became wary of dealing with Beane, suspecting that he was fleecing them with overvalued prospects in order to obtain undervalued assets. There is value in having prospects that the team trades work out: it gives the GM some cachet with his peers, as it displays that he is willing to give up talent to obtain talent. This trust will help the GM make deals in the future, as those across the table will know that the team’s prospects are not simply overhyped and may actually have legitimate potential.

As fans, we want our team to win every trade, and I am sure that on some level, Brian Cashman would not mind that result at all. But there is value in having a trade work for the other party as well.

What do you think? Do you want your GM to “win” every trade? Or do you think it is important that some traded assets succeed?

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Alex's Improved Fielding

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 5 Responses »
May 072010

After coming off of hip surgery in 2009, many of us wondered what would happen to Alex Rodriguez in regards to defense. We knew that, eventually, his hitting would come around, but we weren’t quite sure about his fielding.

The early returns at the hot corner were not encouraging. Alex looked, as expected, pretty bad at third, despite his hot hitting. As the season went on, though, Rodriguez started to improve. The farther away from the surgery Alex got, the more movement he had. Another positive was his always strong arm; it definitely helped him make up for his lack of range. While Aelx did come a long way in 2009, his fielding numbers were still pretty bad

Of all American League third basemen with at least 950 innings in 2009, Rodriguez had the fewest out of zone plays, lowest Revised Zone Rating (RZR) and second lowest Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games (UZR/150).

In 2010, we’ve seen an improvement. As it stands right now, Alex has a 7.0 UZR/150 and a .763 RZR (which is fourth best among AL 3B’s w/at least 200 innings played). In the early season, the numbers show that Alex has improved quite a bit on defense.

If you prefer the “eye test,” I’d say Alex passes. Even just by watching the games this season, I’ve seen Alex moving much better to his left than he did last year and his arm is as strong as ever. Watching him throw inspires quite a bit of jealousy.

As the season moves on, I don’t think we can expect much more improvement UZR-wise, but I wouldn’t expect a big drop off either. I don’t want to be greedy, but I think a 3-5 UZR/150 is possible for A-Rod this year, even if it’s only because of a hot start. I think you guys would agree that we won’t see him post something as bad as his -8 mark last season, but we’re not going to see his 11.2 mark from 2004.

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Great Moments In Self-Promotion

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 11:37 am 3 Responses »
May 072010

Larry Koestler of Yankeeist recently interviewed me, asking questions about the blog, my fandom, and other assorted issues. If you want some insight on how the blog started, how the writers joined up, and other fun tidbits about the site (or me, for some reason), check it out here.

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New Stat For Relievers: Shutdowns and Meltdowns

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 11:00 am 5 Responses »
May 072010

One frequent complaint of baseball fans attempting to quantify the performance of relievers is the lack of a metric that provides an adequate representation of how a reliever impacts the game. ERA is faulty for players who frequently enter with runners on base, and other stats like inherited runners scored and WHIP tend to give only a partial picture. The save is the least helpful indicator, as it does not differentiate between a save with a 3-run lead and a much more difficult 4 or 5 out save in a one run contest. Attempting to remedy this situation, Tom Tango and Fangraphs have created a new metric for evaluating relievers, based on WPA. For those who are not familiar with WPA, here is a quick primer:

WE (win expectancy): The percent chance a particular team will win based on the score, inning, outs, runners on base, and the run environment.

WPA (win probability added): WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.

Using WPA, they have devised a way to credit relievers for particularly good performances, called shutdowns, and give demerits for poor performances, called meltdowns:

A Shutdown is when a reliever accumulates greater than or equal to 0.06 WPA in any individual game.

A Meltdown is when a reliever’s WPA is less than or equal to -0.06 in any individual game.

This is simply a more precise way to evaluate the impact the reliever had on the game, and considers the context of the situation, such that 2 runs allowed in a 12-2 game are weighed differently than the same 2 runs in a 4-3 game. In the comments, Tango notes that the ratio is 1.6 Shutdowns for every Meltdown, and that a poor reliever would have a ratio of 1 to 1. Let’s take a look at the Yankees bullpen and how it has performed in this area thus far:

The last two columns represent Shutdowns (SD) and Meltdowns (MD). It all seems fairly intuitive to me. Alfredo Aceves has been used in a number of tight spots, and his ability to eat 2-3 innings in an outing contributes to his good showing. Mariano and Joba have also been excellent, with the two of them combining for just one poor outing. Meanwhile, Boone Logan has been neither great nor poor, while Chan Ho Park and David Robertson have shown wild inconsistency. Finally, Damaso Marte has been atrocious, allowing a number of inherited runners to score. The metric seems to fit with the observed performances, and gives a quick and dirty way to measure impact on the game. I hope it catches on.

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Cashman-Andy to miss 1 start

Posted by Steve S. at 7:06 am 1 Response »
May 072010

Brian Cashman gave us the update we’ve all been waiting for yesterday. He said that a trip to the DL is not being considered, and it looks like one start and some anti-inflammatories for Andy. Here’s the quotes via Chad Jennings of LoHud:

“Right now the DL is not something that’s being considered,” general manager Brian Cashman said this afternoon.

Pettitte left last night’s game after 77 pitches and went for an MRI that showed only mild inflammation.

“The MRI came back negative other than some inflammation,” Cashman said. “And they’re going to address that conservatively with some anti-inflammatories. Hopefully that nips that in the bud.”

Cashman said no decision has been made about Pettitte’s next start, and a decision won’t be made until Cashman meets with Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland tomorrow. Cashman has his preference, but said he wants to hear from his manager, coaches and medical staff.

“We’ll gather all the troops tomorrow and we’ll make a decision on his next start,” Cashman said. “I’m inclined personally to have him skip his next start.”

He added:

Andy Pettitte’s left elbow has taken a turn for the better, but general manager Brian Cashman is in favor of him skipping his next scheduled start for the Yankees when they play Tuesday night in Detroit.

“I’m inclined that’s what my recommendation would be,” Cashman said over the phone Thursday. “I know he feels better today, which is good. But we’ll get everybody together (Friday) — our doctors, our trainers, our pitching coach, our manager — and we’ll make a decision.

So there you have it. The appears to be fairly minor and it looks like he will make his next start after Detroit, which is scheduled to be on May 15th against Minnesota.

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