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Hughes to regress?

Posted by Chris H. at 7:57 pm 9 Responses »
May 062010


Are there tough times ahead for the Yankees’ fifth starter, Phil Hughes?

Well, not exactly, however, given a few of his underlying numbers on the season, it does seem as though Hughes is bound to regress a bit going forward. For example, Hughes currently sports a 1.44 ERA, but his FIP is 3.13 (xFIP at 4.24). He seems to be benefitting from the Yankee defense, allowing him to pitch over his head in his 4 starts, thus far (there is not a huge disparity between his ERA and FIP, but his ERA should definitely be higher).

In addition, Hughes BABIP, at .162, is well below the league’s .300 average. He can’t maintain such a low BABIP forever and it will soon inflate as the season wears on. In fact, the inflation could be brought on by an increase in Hughes’ line drive rate, as it is currently 12.1%, another unsustainably low figure (Hughes’ rate is the 5th lowest in the American League). Also, consider the fact that Hughes’ strand rate or his LOB% (left on base percentage), currently at 87.4%, is well above the norm, as the average LOB% on the season is 71.7% (it was 71.9% in 2009). Hughes’ LOB% should see a drop over the course of the regular season. When this mark levels off and fewer base runners are stranded, more runs will then score.

Still, although I am pointing out the obvious, that Hughes likely won’t maintain a 1.44 ERA all season, what we should expect going forward isn’t all that bad, really (not at all). Even with a regression, ZiPS forecasts Hughes to post a 3.76 FIP (4.29 ERA) going forward. I doubt any fan would complain about that (he would then end the year with a 3.63 ERA).

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Gardner swinging at what he can handle

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm 1 Response »
May 062010

On the season, Brett Gardner, the Yankees’ speedy left fielder, is batting a very impressive .346/.430/.432. Even with an abnormally high BABIP of .382, Gardner’s fleet-footed ways will allow him to maintain a BABIP close to .320-.330 or so, meaning that his numbers won’t completely flat line with a regression. He could still end the season well above ZiPS’ current projection of .279/.356/.371. With that said, I want to point to an intriguing number for Gardner that might help to explain why he is hitting as well as he has this year.

100%–that’s the number. While the league average for contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone this season is 88.1%, Brett Gardner’s contact rate on pitches in the strike zone stands at 100%. It seems he is hitting strikes whenever he swings at them (the 100% must be a rounded figure, albeit even with that occurring, it would mean his contact rate is very close to 100%). The key here is that Gardner is not swinging at many strikes. In fact, his swing rate on pitches in the zone is currently 39.5%, the lowest mark in the majors (the season average for the league is… 63.2%). From this, we can gather that Gardner is being particularly selective with the pitches he sees in the strike zone and, when he decides to actually swing at a pitch in the zone, he tends to hit it. This is an interesting situation. It is not as though he is swinging at everything and hitting everything. He is swinging at a very small percentage of the strikes he sees, and he is hitting them with freakish regularity.

What does this mean? I’m not sure, really. Gardner is being very selective in the zone and is identifying pitches he can handle, allowing him to pick and choose what he should go after. When he decides to attack a chosen strike, he almost always puts his bat on the ball. A low swing percentage on balls in the zone and a high contact rate on balls in the zone seems like a pretty positive combination, as it signals that a hitter knows his limitations and knows what he can hit (maybe I’m not seeing something, though, so feel free to comment away below). It will be interesting to see how this inverse relationship looks in a few months.

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THT: Can Gardner Help Yankees Avoid Shelling Out For Crawford?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 13 Responses »
May 062010


From The Hardball Times:

Just in case you weren’t aware, Gardner is hitting a ridiculous .346 this season with a staggering .427 OBP, 12 stolen bases, 21 runs scored, and a impressive 10 to 9 BB/K ratio. Sure it’s early, but those are some mighty impressive numbers from a guy who many thought was nothing more than a fourth outfielder. As long as he stays healthy and productive, there is every reason to think that Gardner can steal 50-60 bases this season while scoring over 100 runs.

Obviously the long term implications of Gardner’s hot start are yet to be determined. But if Gardner continues to hit and utilize his speed on the base-paths, then it’s possible that the Yankees already have a younger and much cheaper version of Carl Crawford. While Gardner has not shown Crawford’s power to date, he brings the same dynamics to the table that Crawford does, namely speed and athleticism.

Then again, Gardner’s hot start could be just that: a hot start. But his performance at the dish has to make us think-or at least reconsider-whether or not the Yankees will need to invest $90-$100 million in Carl Crawford this winter when they already have -gulp- Brett Gardner.

I have often expressed the belief that Cliff Lee, rather than Crawford, would be the Yankees prime target this offseason. In fact, I would not be shocked if the Yankees started to go year-to-year with the position, saving their money for top starters and position players at premium positions. This is what I said in December:

“Holliday is likely a better player than Carl Crawford, and I do not see any superior left fielders becoming available in the next few years. As such, it seems clear that the Yankees are doing their best to maintain some semblance of financial flexibility. To do so, it is important to avoid doling out large contracts for players at non-premium positions.

Piecing all of this together, it means that Brian Cashman likely sees left field as a position that he can fill regularly with players on 1 or 2 year contracts, and save the big money for pitchers and players that play premium positions. This is what I mean when I say that the plan in left field is no plan at all. The long term vision of the club does not include a left fielder, and probably does not include a right fielder either. Those players will be added every couple of years on reasonable contracts to fill holes, while the major contracts will be reserved for the Joe Mauer’s and Felix Hernandez’s of the world.”

In that sense, I am not so sure that Gardner’s emergence, if it holds up, is helping the Yankees avoid a mega-deal to Carl Crawford. Rather, having Gardner in the outfielder will help the Yankees avoid having to scrounge on the free agent market each year for a veteran to fill that spot.

What do you think? Is Crawford a target? Will he be one if Gardner continues to play well?

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Discussion: Etiquette Of The Wave

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 12 Responses »
May 062010


A ongoing discussion that I have been having recently with a number of people on Twitter has regarded “The Wave,” a much derided stadium tradition that purists hate. Every time the wave is done, someone at the Stadium or noticing it at home sends out a frustrated tweet, decrying its existence and ripping those who participate. To be honest, I used to be one of those people, and when I am at the Stadium while the Wave is done, I occasionally tell the people in front of me to stop doing it. However, I have recently had a change of heart on this issue.

The case against the Wave is simple. It is a distraction, as it has thousands of people jumping up while many of us are attempting to focus on the game. Furthermore, it shows a lack of interest in the events taking place on the field, which suggests that those doing the wave might be better served finding another source of entertainment. Finally, as @Larry_Koestler mentioned, it creates a slippery slope issue in that it is hard to draw the line as to what type of entertainment is appropriate at a ball game. If the Wave is alright, how about t-shirt cannons or mascots? As Larry noted, these things tend to cheapen the experience.

What changed my mind was a recent discussion I had with a number of people about John Sterling. While many find him excruciating to listen to, I always note that his voice and antics helped stir my interest in the sport, and I know that he has done so for many others. My nephews are just getting into baseball, and they frequently mimic his home run calls and other assorted expressions. While they are certain to tire of him and his mistake filled broadcast eventually, the fact is that he helps hook the younger or more casual fan. The die-hards may hate his inability to perfectly convey the action, but there is plenty of value in an announcer who helps to build a fan base.

My position on the wave is much the same. Although it may not have any inherent value, it makes the game more fun for casual fans and children. While the ideal situation would be for all fans to take attending a game as seriously as you and I might, that is simply not realistic. I know that when I take my girls to the Stadium for the first time, the odds that they will want to sit through a nine inning game and just watch the field the entire time are slim. When a wave starts, I probably will not do it with them, but I certainly do not plan on telling them to sit down. I’ll explain that there is a time and place for everything, and that it would be inappropriate to do the Wave in the late innings of a close game, or at any point during a playoff game, when all attention should be focused on the field. If the time is right, I have no problem with my kids having some fun that is not centered on the game itself.

By making the experience more entertaining, we make it more likely that these people will attend more games and eventually focus on the contest itself rather than the external stimuli. It may be slightly annoying for the hardcore fan, but I think the positives outweigh the negatives. How about you? Should the Wave be taboo? Or is there a time when it is acceptable?

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Yanks' Starters Dominate another Series

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
May 062010

This is getting pretty ho-hum, isn’t it? The Yankees have all but one of the series they’ve played this year after sweeping Baltimore out of the Bronx yesterday. As they have been all season, the Yankees starters have been the biggest contributors to the wins.

All together, starters CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte pitched 20.1 innings against the Orioles while allowing just three runs (two earned, 0.8612 ERA) on 17 hits and six walks (1.1443 WHIP), while striking out 12 (eight of those coming in A.J.’s start in game two of the series).

Of course, the series doesn’t come without concern as Jorge Posada left game two with a sore calf and Andy Pettitte had an MRI yesterday, and will miss at least his next start. It would appear Sergio Mitre will get his start against the Tigers on Monday in Detroit. I wish it could be Joba, but that’s not going to happen. However, if the Yankees decide to put Pettitte on the DL, I’d obviously like to see Joba get his starts.

Offensively, the Yankees were paced by the New York Nicks (H/T RAB). They reached base a combined 13 times out of a possible 20 times (.650 OBP) including two home runs.

Robinson Cano cooled off a bit, as he was just 2-12 in the series (.167) with no walks or extra base hits. I’m not worried, though. After all, it’s just 12 ABs and he was bound to come down at some point.

Going into the off day today and to Boston for the weekend, there isn’t much to worry about in Yankee-land. Andy Pettitte’s injury doesn’t seem too serious and it won’t really affect the team for this weekend. It could, however, affect them in Detroit and that’s something to look out for.

As for the series with the Sox, it’s always a big deal when they and the Yankees lock horns but I wouldn’t put too much stock into this series. Even if the Sox sweep it, they’ll still be behind the Yankees. With that in mind, we could argue that this series is much bigger from the Sox point of view. In reality, though, it’s just another early May series that won’t have much impact on the end of the season. I said in my last series wrap that the Yankees could end up going 5-1 this week, and I still believe they can. Like I said in my post on the opening series in Boston, though, no matter the result of this series, I won’t be too surprised.

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What if we lost Andy for the season?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:43 am 6 Responses »
May 062010

Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News

Yankee fans had a big scare yesterday when they heard ‘elbow injury’ and Andy Pettitte’s name in the same sentence. Andy has had elbow issues going all the way back to the late 90s, and there has long been speculation that at some point it was going to blow up on him. Andy himself has said in recent years that he would continue pitching as long as his elbow held up. Big ups go to Girardi, who said in yesterday’s post game that he noticed something during the 5th inning. He quizzed Andy about it, and “had to drag it out of him” but Andy eventually admitted that his left arm was experiencing some stiffness, something he had experiencing on and off for the past week or so. This is the second time during his managerial tenure that Girardi’s keen eye has nipped an injury in the bud. You may recall a hot August night in Texas from 2008 where Girardi pulled Joba Chamberlain in the 5th inning after noticing something with his delivery. Joba was soon thereafter diagnosed with shoulder tendinitis and missed a month. In both cases, had they continued to pitch they could have injured themselves far worse.

So Yankee fans breathed a sigh of relief when it was reported that the injury appears to be minor, and even Andy himself is not overly concerned about it. But was a big scare really warranted? Would the Yanks be in big trouble if Andy was flying to Alabama to have season-ending (and in all likelihood career ending) surgery? Would the Yanks be looking at the divisional race being over, and a Wild Card berth as their best case scenario?

I don’t think so. There’s no doubt that whoever replaces Andy would represent a step down, he’s been outstanding so far this year, going 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Were he to continue that production all year, it would be by far the best season of his career, so a regression to the mean would be in order. That’s important, and I’ll return to that in a minute. The Yanks currently have 3 other starters who are pitching like staff aces in Hughes, Sabathia and AJ Burnett. We’ve already got more out of Hughes and AJ than anyone was expecting, Phil was projected for league-average production as the #5 and AJ was supposed to be his usual, inconsistent self. With all that, the Yanks were still targeted for 100+ wins this year before the season began. While its hard to say any of them will continue to be as good as they’ve been out of the gate, they all have top of the rotation stuff and can be expected to perform well going forward. I have also weighed in recently that I believe AJ’s transformation is for real.

Another thing to consider is how many positive regressions we have coming offensively. Teixeira is just starting to break out of his slump in the past week, Nick Johnson isn’t going to hit .171 all year and Alex has yet to really get going offensively. He has 2 measly HRs so far, I don’t think A-Rod will project to hit 12 for the season. We have some negative offensive regressions in order as well. I don’t think Brett Gardner will hit .346 with a .430 OBP all year. As much as we want to say Cano has matured, I don’t think he’s matured into Albert Pujols with his 1.100 OPS. Bench players Francisco Cervelli and Marcus Thames are also looking at drop offs, but as minor contributors that shouldn’t affect things much one way or the other. The fact of the matter is the heart of our order, batters 2-4 have yet to get going this year. Johnson, Tex and Alex have the kind of ability that can carry a team, and have yet to do so.

I also think Javier Vazquez has a big turnaround coming, he’s been too good for too long to have lost it this badly all at once. This isn’t the Chien Ming Wang situation from last year, where you had a pitcher coming off an injury who relied very heavily on one very special pitch. He’s a very good pitcher who’s performed well in both the AL and NY in the past. The one qualifier with Vazquez is if he’s hiding an injury, which is something he said he’s done before in New York. A return to form by Vazquez would mean Andy could be lost for the year and the Yanks would basically be looking for a 5th starter, which is a role that Aceves, Mitre or possibly even an Ivan Nova (who been pitching well in AAA) should be able to fill in effectively. There are also pitchers like Jarrod Washburn and Pedro Martinez still floating around out there, who would represent additional options. Considering that you would expect Andy to regress to the mean anyway, someone coming in and providing league average production wouldn’t represent a significant drop off for the Yanks win total expectancy. If either Andy comes back healthy OR Vazquez returns to form, the Yanks will be fine and still win around 100 games. If both happen, they could still chase history.

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