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May 042010

Yesterday, I pointed out that Nick Johnson might be experiencing some bad luck, as his BABIP is extremely low while his line drive rate is solid. Thanks to Lin, we should also add to this argument the fact that his K% is uncharacteristically high. Johnson’s current K% is 34.3% – the second highest mark in the American League – yet his career K% is 20.9%. Essentially, there is an extreme gulf between his career average and his annual rate in 2010, suggesting that the 2010 mark is an outlier that will correct itself over the upcoming weeks. When you look at his BABIP, line drive rate, and his K% in 2010, bad luck seems to be a tremendous factor for Nick Johnson this season. Hopefully he’ll break through it soon.

Photo by Getty Images

May 042010

According to Donnie Collins (props to RAB), with Curtis Granderson on the disabled list the Yankees are set to recall outfield prospect (goodbye, Mark Melancon), Greg Golson, from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Golson is currently hitting .253/.289/.430 in Triple-A, and is a career .263/.307/.396 minor-leaguer. While he isn’t much with a bat, he does offer defense and speed (4 SB this season), which the Yankees could presumably use now that Marcus Thames’ role has expanded.

May 042010

I just noticed this link as a comment on an old post, placed there by Dylan Sharek, who writes Blogging about Baseball. He apparently is a frequent attendee of Charleston River Dogs games, and did a fantastic write-up of Yankees phenom Jose Ramirez, complete with pictures and video. Here is what Dylan had to say about Jose:

In six very, very strong innings, the 6’1″ righthander gave up just two hits. One of those hits, a first inning double by Hickory’s Cody Podraza, was all the Crawdad’s needed to secure the 1-0 victory. Still, we all know wins and losses don’t mean everything.

Sitting at 80-83 miles per hour, Ramirez’s changeup is as advanced as any pitcher’s I’ve ever seen, at any minor league level. With his motion, you can’t tell the difference between his fastball, which ranges from from 89-93 and routinely touches 94, and his changeup. At this level, the batters are completely overpowered, overmatched, and overwhelmed.

He shows the ability to adeptly work both halves of the plate, popping fastballs in on hitter’s hands and stretching them out with changes on the lower half of the zone.

Ramirez’s curveball, which ranges from 79-84 and is an 1-to-7 offering, leaves a lot to be desired, but it has shown flashes of development. He threw it much more tonight than during Monday’s game against the Rome Braves, but he routinely left it up in the zone or down in the dirt. Still, it’s clear that it’s the pitch he’s working on. He never seemed to get a good feel for it tonight, but if he ever does, well…

What makes Ramirez so intriguing isn’t his great natural stuff, but the projection left in that stuff. He’s so tall (6’1″) and so thin (just 155 pounds), that it’s not improbable to believe he can add another 2-3 miles per hour to his heater as he ages.

Did I mention he’s not even 21 yet?

Ramirez’s free and easy motion makes me like him even more. There aren’t too many moving parts and it appears as though he’s made an unnatural movement as natural as possible.

He goes on to compare Ramirez favorably to Arodys Vazcaino, who the Yankees traded for Javy Vazquez and who Ramirez outdueled in their matchup last month. Jose is a player who will likely move quickly up the prospect lists as scouts begin to determine that his stuff will play at higher levels. I think it is fairly likely that he will be in the top 5 among Yankee prospects according to most publications when this offseason rolls around. He should be fun to follow.

I highly recommend that you visit Dylan’s site to read the rest of the report and see the fantastic photos and video he has of Ramirez.


Marc Carig chimes in with news on the injury front:

Catcher Jorge Posada has a mild strain of his right calf and is day-to-day. The Yankees haven’t made a roster move but Yankees manager Joe Girardi said Posada’s status would help shape their decision. With 13 pitchers on the pitching staff, the Yankees could send an arm down to call up an outfielder, or another catcher….

Closer Mariano Rivera has stiffness in his left side and has been unavailable since Saturday, which is why Joba Chamberlain worked the ninth and picked up the save on Monday against the Orioles. Rivera, who played down his injury, said he plans to throw off a mound today…..

Third baseman Alex Rodriguez experienced cramping in his right leg. And though it caused a bit of a stir on Sunday, when he was held from the lineup, it didn’t seem to be an issue on Monday when Rodriguez started.

A-Rod has already returned, and it sounds like Posada and Mariano could be back in action as soon as Friday. That said, these minor injuries tend to highlight the precarious nature of a baseball season, particularly when discussing a team depending on a number of older players. While the Yankees have enough talent to weather the loss of one or even two of these players, a rash of injuries to a handful of key veterans could torpedo their chances at taking the division. The Yankees were fairly fortunate in 2009 in terms of health, and that luck was certainly a factor in helping them run away with the division. Hopefully, this good fortune continues, and guys like Mariano, Posada, and Andy Pettitte can help the Yankees contend for a division title again in 2010.

Curtis Granderson is on the 15-Day Disabled List and will miss all of May.
Chan Ho Park has been a ghost after a few solid outings
Randy Winn has a -57 OPS+.
Nick Johnson is off to a slow start.
Javier Vazquez looks bad. Real bad.

It’s the end of the world as we know it. And I feel fine.

I feel like I’m going to be preaching to the choir, but with the hot start of Austin Jackson and the solid start of Ian Kennedy, I feel it’s necessary to put forth a reminder: it’s still way, way too early for us to judge the most recent offseason. As Moshe said yesterday, we must balance process and results when evaluating the moves of a general manager.

In terms of process, I think we all know how GM Brian Cashman was approaching this offseason. He was going for comparable pieces at more reasonable prices. I think Cashman’s process was right. As a DH, Nick Johnson will likely be just as valuable as Hideki Matsui, just in a different way–Matsui will hit for more power, but Johnson will get on base. A lot. Curtis Granderson is younger than Johnny Damon and plays a more premium position. The two are also comparable on offense, and Granderson is in his age-prime, while Damon is in his age-decline. It was unforeseeable that Granderson would be injured. Granderson’s price was also lower than originally expected, and was still good, despite how well Austin Jackson’s been playing.

The same goes for Javy Vazquez. His price was right and it was a good move to trade for him. The early returns have not been good, but the operative word there is “early.” There is still plenty of time for Javy to improve himself and remind us that Cash’s acquisition of him was as much about results as it was the process.

Regardless of what’s happened in the 25 games played so far, it’s still May 4th. We don’t judge players and teams at this point in the season and we shouldn’t judge transactions either.

May 042010

Photo courtesy of the New York Times

The Yanks made it official yesterday, that struggling starter Javier Vazquez will be skipped for his next turn in the rotation. He will continue working on the side, and will actually have two bullpen sessions of “greater intensity” instead of making his start.  They won’t make him wait another full 5 days before getting back out on a mound, opting to pitch him Monday at Comerica Park. Had he made his regular turn in the rotation, he would have pitched Wednesday in Detroit. I would imagine that the Yanks are doing this to give Phil Hughes an extra day of rest and bump him back a few days, since Phil is working on innings restrictions for the 2010 season. Andy would wind up getting an extra day as well. But Monday is an interesting choice, it means he would miss the Mets series coming up May 21-23 and would instead face the Twins and Rays. Had he pitched Tuesday, his next two starts would have been facing the Twins and Mets and Hughes would still get his extra day.

Much has been made about the fact that they’re skipping him at Fenway, which feeds into the theories of  people who believe the root of Javier’s issues is he ‘can’t pitch on the big stage’. I’m not one of them. He’s pitched poorly on the road this year in Anaheim, Tampa Bay and Oakland as well as struggling at home in New York. He’s also pitched well in New York in the past, going 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in the first half of 2004.  I think skipping him is primarily about the schedule and Fenway Park, but the intensity of Yanks-Sox series certainly doesn’t help matters for a pitcher who’s struggling like Vazquez is right now.

The ballpark splits don’t back up the idea that Javier should fare better in Comerica Park instead of Fenway . Javier has gone 1-4 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.526 WHIP in 6 starts at Fenway. In 7 starts in Comerica, his record is 2-5 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.489 WHIP.  But Fenway is an unforgiving park for a fly ball pitcher like Javier under the best of circumstances, and these are anything but. The Red Sox lineup may not still be the scary Manny-Ortiz editions, but they’re still packed with dangerous veteran hitters who can shake a slump at a moments notice. Detroit has some tough veteran hitters as well, but Miguel Cabrera is the only one that really scares you. The rest of that lineup is playing way over their heads right now, and is predominantly Right-handed. The sole everyday Lefty batter is the always tough Johnny Damon, and two switch-hitters in Ramon Santiago and Carlos Guillen, both of whom are eminently pitchable. It’s a better match up for Javier then the more balanced Boston lineup, and spacious Comerica Park should help a fly ball pitcher like Vazquez.

But now that the Yanks have made this move, it begs the question ‘What’s their next move if this doesn’t work?’. They’ll need 5 starters for most of the month of May, with no off days for the next 3 turns through the rotation. I have to think he’ll make those 3 starts, and if things don’t improve they probably repeat their course of action with Chien Ming Wang from last year. DL stint, followed by rehab outings and bullpen duty when the rehab clock runs out. At which point Vazquez may very well be begging for a change of scenery, with his contract set to expire at season’s end. Hopefully he snaps out of this funk and we never get to that point.

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