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Net Stolen Bases and the 2009 Yankees

Posted by Stephen R. at 3:05 pm 2 Responses »
May 012010

Cano stealing second

This year in my ultra-competitive 7×7 fantasy baseball league (oh great, now I sound like Simmons), we swapped out Stolen Bases in favor of Net Stolen Bases.  This means that the stolen base total is net of any instances in which the player is caught stealing.  I like it because it adds an additional element of strategy and because it increases downside risk in scoring stolen bases.  For instance, I don’t view Lance Berkman’s attempt to steal a base as an “Aw, thanks for trying, Puma!” moment anymore.  It’s more a “WHAT ARE YOU THINKING FOOL?” moment when he inevitably gets thrown out.

There are better ways to measure baserunning impact but ESPN doesn’t give me the option to use Equivalent Base Running Runs in fantasy, so for now I’m stuck with Net Stolen Bases. It can still be useful, though.  For instance, take a look at Troy Tulowitski’s SB total last year.  He stole 20 bases, which is a nice accomplishment, but was caught stealing 11 times, a net of 9.  Kosuke Fukudome managed to swipe 6 stolen bases last year, but was caught 10 times, a net of -4.  So, I wanted to see how the 2009 Yankees fared in Net Stolen Bases.  First though let’s see what the Stolen Base leaderboard looks like, courtesy of ESPN:


1. Derek Jeter—————30                                                                        9. Cody Ransom————–2

2. Brett Gardner————-26                                                                      10. Mark Teixeira————-2

3. Alex Rodriguez———–14                                                                       11. Eric Hinske—————-1

4. Johnny Damon———–12                                                                      12. Jorge Posada————–1

5. Melky Cabrera————10                                                                      13. Francisco Cervelli———0

6. Robinson Cano———–5                                                                        14. Hideki Matsui————-0

7. Ramiro Pena————–4                                                                        15. Jerry Hairston Jr———0

8. Freddy Guzman———–4

Now let’s look at the leaderboard while including Caught Stealing and Net Stolen Bases.

1. Derek Jeter————30 SBs, 5 CS, 25 NSB                                         9. Cody Ransom————2 SBs, 0 CS, 2 NSB

2. Brett Gardner————–26 SBs, 5 CS, 21 NSB                                 10. Jorge Posada———–1 SBs, 0 CS, 1 NSB

3. Alex Rodriguez————14 SBs, 2 CS, 12 NSB                                  11. Eric Hinske————-1 SBs, 0 CS, 1 NSB

4. Johnny Damon————12 SBs, 0 CS, 12 NSB                                 12. Hideki Matsui———-0 SBs, 1 CS, -1 NSB

5. Melky Cabrera————–10 SBs, 2 CS, 8 NSB                                 13. Jerry Hairston Jr.—–0 SBs, 1 CS, -1 NSB

6. Ramiro Pena—————-4 SBs, 1 CS, 3 NSB                                    14. Robinson Cano——–5 SBs, 7 CS, -2 NSB

7. Freddy Guzman————-4 SBs, 1 CS, 3 NSB                                   15. Francisco Cervelli——0 SBs, 3 CS, -3 NSB

8. Mark Teixeira—————2 SBs, 0 CS, 2 NSB

The only significant movement we see is Robinson Cano, who slides down from sixth place to next to last, thanks to a horrific 7 CS in 12 attempts.  Above Cano on the Net Stolen Bases leaderboard are Mark Teixeira and Jorge Posada, both legendary speedsters.  So far in 2010, Cano has a Net Stolen Base total of 0, thanks to 2 SBs and 2 CS.  The moral of this story is that Cano should just stop trying to steal bases.  Please Robby, I’m asking nicely. .

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How's Brett Doing?

Posted by Stephen R. at 12:00 pm 8 Responses »
May 012010

Before I get going, I’d like to introduce myself.  I’m Stephen R, and I’ll be posting here on the weekends.  You may remember me from my 2011 Free Agency post back in March. I’m very excited to join the The Yankee U team and hope I can make a contribution to the great analysis that happens here daily.  You can find me on Twitter here, and also check out some of my other stuff at my other home, The Bat Shatters.

Gardner

When Brett Gardner won the starting day left field position for the 2010 Yankees, Yankees fans had mixed feelings.  Some fans still missed Johnny Damon.  Some were happy to see Gardner get a chance, but feared that his bat wouldn’t be able to produce at even replacement level for a year.  Others were hopeful that he would add a positive impact to the team even with a weak bat, given his reputation as a superb defender.  20 games in the 2010 season, Gardner has produced to the tune of .323/.397/.385.  He is not hitting for power, as usual, but his on-base percentage has increased by over 50 points from 2009.  This is quite obviously a statistically insignificant sample, but are there any developing trends in Gardner’s approach that bear watching going forward?

So far in 2010, Gardner’s walk rate has only increased from 9.2% to 9.5%.   Over 600 plate appearances, an increase of 0.3% represents about 2 more walks.  Gardner has also decreased his K rate, which was 23.6% in 2008 and 16.1% in 2009 but now sits at 12.3% in 2010.  Quite obviously, his K/BB ratio has improved (0.65 in 2009, 1.00 in 2010) as a result.  These are mostly miniscule changes, and probably don’t indicate an improved batting eye.  In fact, Gardner’s increased OBP is probably the result of an inflated BABIP that stands 57 points higher in 2010 than it did in 2009 (.368 to .311).  Given that his LD% has stayed static while his GB% has gone up(49% in 2009, 59% in 2010), we can likely conclude that some of Gardner’s ground balls have just been squeaking through more often than last year, or that he’s simply legging out more infield hits.

From an approach standpoint, Gardner has seen a decrease in his overall swing percentage from 34.1% in 2009 to 30.3% in 2010.  This is probably the driving cause behind his increase in pitches per plate appearance. He currently averages 4.39 P/PA, good for 9th best in the major leagues.  Unfortunately, his decrease in swing percentage is manifesting itself in a decrease in the percentage of times he swings at pitches inside the zone (Z-Swing%).  In 2009, his Z-Swing% was 50.7%.  In 2010, it is 40.1%.  Additionally, Gardner’s O-Swing%, or the percentage of times he swings at pitches outside the zone, has gone up from  17.2% in 2009 to 19.7% in 2010.  Gardner might be due for some regression as pitchers adapt to this increasingly passive approach to strikes.

This early in the season, it’s almost impossible to cut through the noise and draw any definitive conclusions about the 2010 Brett Gardner. It’s easy to like the OBP, which has allowed him to swipe ten bags already.  It would be nice, though, if Gardner would take a more active approach towards pitches inside the zone, which Chris H argued for back in January.  If he’s somehow able to maintain his Ichiro-ean BABIP and continue to get on base at a 38% clip, Yankees fans will be very pleased. If not, then Gardner might be due for some serious regression.

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YS3 no longer a bandbox

Posted by Steve S. at 9:06 am 6 Responses »
May 012010

The newly built Yankee Stadium earned a quick reputation as a bandbox last year. In the pre-opening exhibition series against the Cubs 8 HRs were hit in just 2 games. During the first two series facing the Indians and Oakland, a grand total of 25 HRs were hit in the first 6 games played at the facility. Panic ensued amongst fans and Yankee execs. Sportswriters were referring to the facility as “Coors Field East”. The Babe must be mad that his house was torn down for the ‘House that George Built’. The curse has been reversed. Newly signed pitchers AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia must have been wondering what they got themselves into, and surely the Yanks would never be able to attract a big free agent pitcher again.

From the Yankee front office perspective, they were befuddled as to why this was happening. They took great care in constructing the new building to make sure the new facility was perfectly aligned with the old one, located just one block north. Theories abounded, but none seemed to take root. But as 2009 progressed, things seemed to normalize. The team still set a record for team HRs last year with 244 (previous record was 242 in 2004) but fell far short of the all-time ballpark number of 303 hit in 1999 at Coors field. Just 13 HRs have been hit over the first 6 games played at YS3 this year, almost half the pace from last year. Manager Joe Girardi has noticed the change:

“I know the first six games it didn’t carry like it did last year,” Girardi said. “That’s the only difference I felt. It seemed last year, it turned around, around May 15th. It played like the old Yankee Stadium.”

There have been a number of theories put forth as to what happened back in April of 2009, and Yankee beat reporter Andrew Marchand of ESPN.com examines them in his latest piece. They are as follows:

• There have been only two “Just Enough” home runs, compared to eight last year. A “Just Enough” homer, according to HitTracker, is a homer that clears the fence by 10 feet or less. There is often variance in this statistic from year to year, so this isn’t that unusual.

• However, the average temperature has been seven degrees cooler (63 to 56) on average for Yankees home games this year. Lower temperatures usually mean less homers.

• The average wind speed is four mph faster this year (7.8 to 3.8). However — and here is the big one — the wind direction, according to ESPN Stats & Information, has changed slightly from a left-to-right field stream to a trajectory blowing in from left field.

• On April 17 and 18, 2009, the pitchers were Joba Chamberlain, Anthony Reyes, Zack Johnson, Jensen Lewis, Fausto Carmona, Chien-Ming Wang, Anthony Claggett, Edwar Ramirez and Jose Veras. There are not many groundball pitchers in that group, and some, if not most, are not very good. Over those two days, 14 of the last year’s 25 homers were hit.

For me, when dealing in a small sampling of games I find the last explanation most persuasive. The HR situation normalized as the Yanks sorted out their early season bullpen issues, and I’m sure many of the teams they played did the same. There were still were some real cheap ones hit in May (Swisher’s end-of-the-bat dunk off Guthrie stands out) but if people weren’t so hyper-sensitive about the new ballpark they would have simply chalked it up to a high pop fly on a windy night. Now that we’ve disposed of this one, the bridge-jumpers will just have to find something else to panic about.

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