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No decline for Derek

Posted by Chris H. at 7:00 pm 2 Responses »
May 312010

On May 11, I questioned whether or not Derek Jeter, a soon-to-be 36-year old, had finally begun to decline as a ballplayer. On the season, his offense seemed relatively weak – his .286/.324/.436 line was certainly indicative of that – and, at times, he looked about as bad as anyone at the plate. Rather than just connecting his problems to age without any sort of internal discussion, however, I did wonder, in the piece, if Jeter’s anemic output could be tied to a bit of bad luck. Perhaps a few balls just did not drop for the normally productive Yankees shortstop.

Looking back on it, it seems like that could very well be the case. On May 11, Jeter’s batting average on balls in play was .304, while his career BABIP was .359. In accordance with that number, Jeter’s BABIP and, subsequently, his triple slash line should have been higher. He was due for an increase in those areas and Jeter has definitely delivered, surging at the end of May. After going on to hit just .190/.264/.228 from May 1-19 – his bad luck seemingly plaguing him for most of the month – from May 20-29, Jeter has hit .415/.455/.585 with 4 doubles and a homer. His BABIP has increased from .304 to .326, and his triple slash line is now a more respectable .297/.340/.425. While we might see this as a bit of good luck, which it is, it is also signifies a statistical correction. Jeter’s unlucky stretch was bound to pass and he was due to hit the cover off of the ball in order to make up for it. We are seeing that now.

If age is not a big factor, then this is how we can view the situation. In my May 11 post, I wondered if age, rather than luck, was the reason Jeter’s hits were not falling (thus, the low BABIP). I was concerned that Jeter, who will turn 36-years old next month, had entered his decline (a fair thought). Jeter seems to be finding his groove, however, so perhaps that is not the case and what we saw earlier in the month (and a bit in April) was just an unlucky stretch. He is currently in the midst of a hitting streak and has improved his walk rate significantly, from 3% in April to 6.6% in May, which is another good sign. Jeter obviously won’t go on to hit .415/.455/.585 for the rest of the season, but, as his numbers continue to unfold, citing an age-related decline seems like it was a little premature on my part.

Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

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No room/need for Oswalt

Posted by Chris H. at 5:01 pm 4 Responses »
May 312010

As most of you know by now, Roy Oswalt, Houston’s reliable right-hander, might be up for grabs as the Astros continue to sputter through another lost season. As a result of their of their terrible losing record, the loyal Oswalt reportedly requested a trade about a week ago in the hopes that he could ultimately join a contendor. However, do not expect the Yankees to enter the bidding for the 32-year old’s services.

Although Oswalt is a dependable workhorse, logging 200-plus innings on a seemingly regular basis, and despite his proven track record as one of the most effective pitchers in the game – he owns a 3.35 career FIP and has posted a 3.20 FIP over 69 innings this year – the Yankees simply do not have any room for him in their rotation. “We have five starters we like,” responded “one Yankees person” to Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman last week, when asked about the team’s interest in Oswalt. Perhaps if Phil Hughes were not proving his mettle this season, struggling like he has in the past, the Yankees might have been singing a different tune. That has not been the case, though. In fact, outside of Javier Vazquez, who can certainly turn things around this year (he was on the right rack prior to his latest effort), the team’s starting staff has been very strong. Hence, there is no real need to bring Oswalt on board. Oswalt also has a rather unsightly contract, paying him at least $33M from 2010-2012. I doubt Hal Steinbrenner, the financially prudent son, would like to take on such a commitment.

Inline with the Oswalt case outlined above, I also doubt the Yankees will acquire any brand-name starters this season. Seattle’s Cliff Lee is included in that category, of course, as he could become available later on. According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees will likely pursue him via free agency, instead – just as they did with CC Sabathia – when rotation spots are actually available (Javier Vazquez will depart, Andy Pettitte could retire). As of right now, though, in 2010, the need for starting pitching just isn’t there and, barring a huge injury, it won’t be there.

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

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3 New Mock Drafts Have Yanks Taking 3 Different Guys

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 4 Responses »
May 312010

This morning, I talked a bit a bout Anthony Ranaudo and the 2010 MLB Draft. Of course, over the next few hours, I saw 3 new mock drafts from BA, Keith Law, and Frankie Piliere, and each had the Yankees taking someone else at #32.

Law has the Yankees taking Christian Yelich, a 1B/OF out of high school. Law thinks Yelich should make plenty of contact in the majors but could struggle to generate a ton of power. Defensively, he sees him as a left fielder due to good speed, and could even see him ending up in center if his arm improves from its currently abysmal state. Yelich is 26th on Law’s big board, and would be a solid but unimaginative pick.

Piliere thinks the Yankees will take West Virginia SS/2B Jedd Gyorko, who is 57th on Law’s draft board. Gyorko is a solid bat without a clear position who may eventually be forced out of the middle infield. He has no plus-plus skills, but is average at worst across the board. I really do not love this idea, as Gyorko is the kind of unspectacular prospect that the Yankees have no business taking in the first round. I am not particularly concerned, as Gyorko does not seem to fit Damon Oppenheimer’s typical first round wishlist, and seems more in line with the David Adams (3rd round) and Brad Suttle (4th) selections.

BA predicts that the Yankees will snag Tyrell Jenkins, a high school righty out of Texas. Mike Axisa at RAB provides the following scouting report:

With a live arm and a fluid delivery, he pumps fastballs in the 91-93 mph range and has touched 95. There’s lots of room to fill out in his 6-foot-4, 180 lb. frame, so he should add velocity. Jenkins has also flashed the ability to spin two kinds of breaking balls as well as maintain arm speed on his changeup, but he’s inexperienced on the mound and it’s all a work in progress.

Like Mike, I would be highly in favor of picking Jenkins (23rd on Law’s board), as I am of the belief that the Yankees should be drafting with a focus on high upside in the first round. They can try and fill in with high probability types later on by going above slot and enticing those players with signability concerns or college commitments.

Interestingly enough, all three mock’s have Anthony Ranaudo, the player I have discussed twice in recent weeks, going to Boston at #20. With Ranaudo looking healthier in the last few weeks, it seems that everyone sees him as having recouped his first round status, and no one sees him sliding past Boston. I was unsure about whether I wanted the Yankees to take him, but I hope he does not end up with Boston, as he has good upside and should move through the minors quickly.

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Memorial Day Beisbol

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
May 312010

This afternoon, the Yankees will wrap up their four-game series against the visiting Cleveland Indians at 1:05 pm.  Fresh off their come from behind win on Sunday afternoon, the Yankees will send Andy Pettitte to the mound to face one Mitchell R. Talbot. The team will be looking to seal a series victory against Cleveland, after taking the first two of three.

The Indians acquired Talbot in a deal with the Rays over the offseason.  This year, he is 6-3 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.  Now watch as I do my best Joe Morgan impression: “My pick for the Cy Young so far in 2010 has to be Mitch Talbot.  If you look at his record, you see 6 wins.  And only 3 losses.  When Talbot pitches, the Indians win and without winning your team can’t do well.  Talbot is a winner.  Some people think that stats should decide the Cy Young but as you can see Talbot has the most wins and should be the Cy Young”.

That said, Mitch Talbot is the best advertisement so far in 2010 for looking past the W-L record and even the ERA and WHIP when evaluating a pitcher.  His FIP is 5.22 and his xFIP is 5.01, a discrepancy of over a run.  The reason is that Talbot has benefited from an unusually lucky BABIP of .235.  Best of all, Talbot features an identical strikeout and walk rate: 3.58.  That’s an incredibly low amount of strikeouts, and a decent sized amount of walks.  If Talbot was a stock, I’d be shorting it.  He’s going to crash, it’s simply a question of when.

The Yankees counter with Pettitte, who is also off to a decent start.  Through 58.1 innings, Pettitte has a 2.62 ERA.  Like Talbot though, Pettitte’s FIP and xFIP, 3.74 and 4.18, respectively, betray a relatively lucky year thus far.  Pettitte’s luck doesn’t stem as much from a beneficial BABIP, although at .276 it sits around 40 points lower than his career average of .315, as much as it comes from his strand rate of 81% (10% higher than career average) and his HR/FB rate of 7.0% (2% lower than career average).  One small point of concern with Pettitte is that his K rate has fallen to 5.85, which is a batter less per nine innings than it was in 2009.  It’s still early in the year, so it remains to be seen whether this is a permanent change.

The Yankees are sending a lefty-heavy lineup to face the righty Talbot.  Courtesy of LoHud, the lineup is:

Jeter SS

Granderson CF

Teixeira 1B

Rodriguez 3B

Cano 2B

Swisher RF

Miranda DH

Cervelli C

Gardner CF

Hopefully the lineup can bang out some runs early and stake Pettitte to an early lead.  After this past few games, I could really go for a good old-fashioned blowout.

Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t wish you all a happy Memorial Day.  I hope you enjoy the day off and the nice weather.  I will be trying to put together my new grill in time to cook out on my new deck.  To any veterans out there, I want you to know how much we appreciate your service and your sacrifice for our country.  This is hardly sufficient, but I think I speak for all of the writers here at TYU in offering my sincere thanks and gratitude for all that you’ve done for us.  Thank you.  And to all of the service members in Afghanistan and Iraq, including my buddy Tim: stay safe, and get home soon.

Go Yanks.

LSU's Ranaudo Regaining Some Of His Lost Luster

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 11:00 am 1 Response »
May 312010

Two weeks ago, I asked whether the Yankees should consider drafting dropping right-hander Anthony Ranaudo with their first round pick. Poor performance and injury issues forced a player who was once the presumptive #2 pick down most draft boards, and many had Ranaudo dropping out of the first round. In fact, Keith Law left him out of his mock of the first round one week ago. However, Ranaudo did look better on Wednesday, leading Law to file the following report:

LSU right-hander Anthony Ranaudo hadn’t been the same since taking three weeks to recover from a minor, non-structural elbow injury earlier in the spring, but for the first two innings of his start on Wednesday evening he was back to his old self, mostly 92-94, touching 95 to strike out the last hitter in the first inning, and driving his fastball down in the zone. His curveball was inconsistent but flashed plus, 79-83, and he even threw it to left-handed batters, going at their back feet as if it was a slider with good depth. He also showed a solid-average changeup at 79-84 with good arm speed, although it was clearly his third pitch in his mind. After the second inning, he settled in at more of a 90-92 clip, but held that through the seventh inning before finally tiring in the 8th.

When he was struggling, Ranaudo was leading with his elbow and couldn’t extend his arm out in front as he finished his delivery, but he looked cleaner and freer on Wednesday, getting on top of the ball better and repeating his arm action in back well. The hitch with Ranaudo will be with his medicals, as it’s never been entirely clear what was bothering him; even if it’s no longer an issue, teams will still want to know the full history before giving him a major-league deal and a large bonus — but they’re not likely to get it.

Today, just four days later, Ranaudo pitched 3 innings in relief and looked excellent. He did not allow a hit and struck out 5 while walking 2 to help LSU win the SEC tournament. Keith Law commented on the outing on Twitter, and when I asked him whether Ranaudo was creeping back towards the first round, he said:

I think Ranaudo goes in the first round. Reward good enough for someone to take the risk.

Being that KLaw was the most vocal of pundits about Ranaudo’s fall, I would think that Ranaudo will likely go in the first round. BA has him going to Boston at #20 (h/t to @mikeaxisa), while Frankie Piliere has him going to the Yankees, although it now seems that he may be gone by the time they pick. Now that he has shown some signs of recovery, it may make sense for the Yankees to take a shot on Ranaudo, although that depends on their other options at #32. I would probably still stay away, but would not be furious if they made the high upside play.

What do you think they should do if Ranaudo falls to them?

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Players to Watch in the Dominican Summer League

Posted by Eric Schultz at 9:00 am 2 Responses »
May 312010

For most prospect watchers, there is virtually no point in following the Dominican Summer League, but for some reason, I enjoy keeping track of it anyway.  The DSL is a short season rookie-level league with a level of competition traditionally below that of the Gulf Coast League, where most American high school draftees make their professional debuts.   The DSL is traditionally the first professional stop for Latin American teenagers signed on or after July 2 who are not considered advanced enough to make their stateside debuts, because of some combination of a lack of professional coaching, lack of English skills, or youth.  Advanced Latin American free agents have been known to skip the DSL, with Jesus Montero and Arodys Vizcaino serving as two primary examples.  In the Yankee system currently, prominent alums of the DSL include Jose Ramirez, Ivan Nova, and Francisco Cervelli.  DSL play has just begun, so I think it is worth taking a closer look at some of the names you may be hearing about years down the road.

On the two Yankee teams in the league are dozens of prospects with ages ranging from 16 to the early 20′s.  There are 6-7 figure bonus babies playing alongside guys who signed for a few thousand.  While information on the prospects in the DSL is pretty sparse, I am going to point of some of the players to keep an eye on this summer.  Some of these assessments are based on previous information I have heard about these prospects, namely bonus figures, hype, or previous performance in the DSL.  For guys about whom there is little information, the main criteria to pay attention to are age and position.  The younger a DSL player is, the more likely they are to be a legitimate prospect.  Guys who haven’t made it stateside by age 19 are likely filler at this point, and it is certainly important to notice which players are playing premium positions.  I’ll take a look at a few intriguing guys from both teams.

DSL Yankees 1

  • RHP Cristofer Cabrera, age 17, is likely the top pitching prospect on this team, and probably the top Yankee prospect in the DSL.  The 6’0″ righty signed for $400,000 last year out of the Dominican Republic, drawing comps to Arodys Vizcaino for his ability to hit mid-90′s with his fastball despite his small stature.  He reportedly has a decent breaking ball and feel for a changeup, but evidently was not believed to be advanced enough to go stateside right away.
  • LHP Melvin Croussett is not much of a prospect (unless you ask the folks at RAB), but he has put up ridiculous numbers for the past few seasons in the DSL.  Apparently, there are no plans to bring him to the states anytime soon.
  • Outfielders Yeicok Calderon (18) and Erickson Lianora (18) are somewhat surprisingly repeating the DSL, despite putting up strong numbers last season.  Calderon posted an .854 OPS with a very encouraging 38:45 bb:k ratio.  Lianora put up a .778 OPS with 15 steals.  I expected both of these guys to be in the GCL outfield this season, but evidently the Yankees are taking it slowly with them.
  • 18 year-old catcher Jackson Valera was a 6-figure bonus guy from the 2008 class who struggled last year, but if he puts together a strong season, could be another piece in the deep catching pipeline.
  • A few recent signees to watch:  6’3″ RHP Angel Rincon (17) from the DR, a projectable righty already hitting the low-90′s, and 17 year-old shortstop Jamiel Orozco (no information obtained from google search)

DSL Yankees 2

  • 18 year-old shortstop Gian Arias, a $750,000 dollar signee from 2008, is repeating the league after posting a .642 OPS last season at age 17.  Although Arias’s hitting was fairly weak, he did show great plate discipline, with a 48:49 bb:k ratio.
  • Outfielder Eladio Moronta is an interesting player to watch.  He is old at 21 for the DSL, and is getting a late start because he was suspended for lying about his age.  This didn’t stop the Yankees from shelling out a $570,000 bonus on him in November.  Although Moronta is old and fairly raw, he flashes great tools, including plus-plus speed, a plus arm, and above-average raw power.  Moronta’s tools make him worth watching, but if he doesn’t tear up the league at 21, he may never prove to be a legitimate prospect.
  • Some other recent signees to watch include 17 year-old RHP’s Samuel Garcia and Reynaldo Polanco, 17 year-old catcher Rainiero Coa, 17 year-old shortstop Rafael Polo, and 16 year-old outfielder Sandy Brito.

Notably absent from these teams is catcher Gary Sanchez, the 3 million dollar bonus baby from last year’s free agent class.  This likely indicates that the Yankees perceive that his game is advanced enough to make an early stateside debut.  Given the unpredictable nature of the DSL, however, it is quite possible that none of these guys will ever see the majors, and somebody completely unexpected can rise through the ranks.  Even if a player succeeds in the DSL, there are many hurdles remaining before he becomes a legitimate prospect.

Cano enters his prime

Posted by Steve S. at 8:28 am 8 Responses »
May 312010

Very quietly at age 27, Robinson Cano is starting to fulfill his promise as a big league player. Across most (prominent) offensive stats he is among the league leaders in category after category. He currently sits at #2 in MLB for Batting Average at .362 (behind Justin Morneau @ .368) #3 in the AL for Slugging at .607, 4th in OPS at 1.012, 6th in RBIs, #1 in Hits, #3 in Doubles and 5th in Runs Scored. He leads the Yankees in every major offensive category with Hits, Runs, 2B, HRs, RBIs, Total Bases, BA, OBP and SLG. For those who prefer advanced stats, he is 4th in the AL in wOBA. His stellar ability to make contact has shined again this year, sitting at 11th in Z-Contact% (#1 is …wait for it…Brett Gardner). He is 3rd overall in WAR at 2.6, and first among all 2B (Hudson 2.0). Through the first two months of the 2010 season, the best hitter on the Yanks hasn’t been named Jeter, Teixeira or Rodriguez, it’s been Robbie Cano.

Defensively, he hasn’t fared quite as well of yet. His UZR/150 stands at -4.7 for the 2010 season, which represents a small improvement over his career mark. For his career his rating stands at -6.9. While he’s never been the rangiest at his position, his plus arm for his position still makes him an asset.

Even the much-debated ‘Clutch’ issue with Robbie has melted away this season. He’s currently hitting .333/.391/.630 (1.020 OPS) with Runners in scoring position, which mirrors his overall production. Some have even started wondering if he should bat cleanup, and with the Yanks recent struggles with RISP it’s something you can’t dismiss entirely. But those things happen just about every year to most teams (look at the Phillies lately) and it’s just part of the ebb and flow of a long season. Robbie profiles better as a #5 hitter because of his ability to make contact and propensity to swing the bat. But it’s time to adjust the much-overused tag attached to Robbie of “He’ll win a batting title someday” and replace it with “One of the best Second Basemen in Baseball”.

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A-Rod Is "One Class Act"

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:00 pm 5 Responses »
May 302010

Because I know that this story will soon disappear into the ether and A-Rod will quickly go back to being a villain for daring to trod near a pitcher, I wanted to highlight it here. First, we hear from Chad Jennings:

When today’s game ended, Alex Rodriguez left Yankee Stadium and began making his way to New York-Presbyterian Hospital to check on David Huff. Before Rodriguez could get there, Huff was released from the hospital and was back with his teammates in time to catch the bus to the Indians hotel.

Rodriguez asked for Huff’s phone number so that he could call him this evening.

And then, from Huff’s Facebook page:

I’d like to thank the Yankees team doctors and our training for making sure i was ok. I’d also like to thank the NY Yankees security staff for taking care of my family, they were amazing. finally, to A Rod for contacting me on his way to the hospital, one class act. Everything is good. It was a little scary but I’m out of the hospital now and with my family. Thank you all for you concern and support.

Thankfully, Huff seems to be alright, which is shocking considering the ball ricocheted off his head into right field for a double. It was gentlemanly of Alex to jump in his car immediately after the game to track down Huff, and then to call him once he found out that the injured pitcher was already back at the Stadium. Alex does plenty of stupid things, but he does a lot of positive, likable things as well, such as his reaction this incident and his pulling a child out of the way of a truck in Boston a few years ago. The positive things simply do not get the sort of attention that the negative controversies do, and Alex comes off to most outside of New York as the source of all things evil. Hopefully, people around the game begin to recognize that Alex is not all that bad.

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Sherman: Yankees To Pursue Lee In Offseason

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 2 Responses »
May 302010

From Joel Sherman:

One AL executive went so far as to say last week, “I have no doubt that the Yankees will sign Cliff Lee.”

The assumption is logical. Javier Vazquez ($11.5 million) will come off the payroll, and Andy Pettitte ($11.75 million) contemplates retirement annually. Their combined salaries are roughly what it is going to take on an annual basis to secure Lee.

There is no doubt the Yankees front office is enamored of Lee. The Yankees can imagine going forward with Lee and his former Indians teammate, Sabathia, heading the rotation followed by A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes, and if he wanted to come back again, Pettitte. If not Pettitte, then the presence of horses such as Lee and Sabathia would more comfortably allow the Yankees to break in someone such as Ivan Nova as a low-cost No. 5 starter.

It has long been the contention of the writers here at TYU that the Yankees will focus their available money and resources for the 2010 offseason on Cliff Lee. It simply makes more sense than investing that money in a corner outfielder, particularly with Brett Gardner emerging as an adequate option in the outfield. Building an incredibly deep and talented rotation should be the priority for Brian Cashman this winter, and Sherman’s piece suggests that the Yankees have already begun scouting Lee in advance of their pursuit.

Sherman goes on to note that the Yankees are unlikely to acquire Lee during the 2010 season, a contention that I have to agree with. Starting pitching is unlikely to be a major issue for this club, as they should have at least 4 solid starters to depend on. Their in-season resources will likely be focused on building more depth for the lineup and the bullpen, and rightfully so. He suggests that a package would start with Jesus Montero and Joba Chamberlain, although I am uncertain as to what sort of value Joba has at this point. I would be loathe to trade Montero for a rental player, particularly one that seems determined to reach free agency under all circumstances.

Finally, speaking of Montero, Sherman has a brief blurb on him that, if accurate, further cements his status as practically untouchable:

Montero has endured a tepid offensive start this season. But the Yankees have come to strongly believe that his defense has improved and he will catch in the majors. A veteran scout backed up that thinking, saying, “His body looks better, leaner, and he is moving better and quicker behind the plate. He also is throwing much better. He has shown indications he can catch.”

I would take quotes from unnamed scouts with a grain of salt, but Sherman seems to be echoing the comments of some other evaluators who have found that the team itself believes Montero will defend well enough to catch in the majors. That sort of belief should make him untouchable, particularly in a deal for someone like Lee. For that reason, Lee is unlikely to be a Yankee in 2010. 2011, however, may very well see him pitching in pinstripes.

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What's the next move with Joba?

Posted by Steve S. at 10:18 am 23 Responses »
May 302010

Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News

The level of disgust in Yanklee land directed at Joba Chamberlain is palpable these days. Bill Madden referred to yesterday’s outing as “Comic relief”. The NY Post has a new nickname for Joba, calling him ‘Chamber-Lame’. Even his (always measured with the media) manager Joe Girardi effectively laid down the gauntlet in yesterday’s post game, and the frustration in his voice was evident. He said this:

“We had the game where we wanted, we had our eighth-inning guy in, we needed four outs from him … and he left pitches in the middle of the plate. He just didn’t make the pitches when he had to. Players aren’t going to be bulletproof, but he’s had some bad outings. He’s our eighth-inning guy and he’s got to get it done for us.”

Yesterday may have been the nadir of Joba’s 2010 campaign, but it wasn’t just one bad outing in isolation. He’s given up a whopping 10 ER in his last 5 IP. He’s currently sporting a 5.82 ERA and has allowed 3 runs or more in 3 of his past 5 outings. Some questioned the move by Girardi, but if you don’t bring him in there you never will. The next three batters were all right handed, and there were two outs in the inning. If he’s supposed to be the ‘Bridge to Mariano’ then he has to be able to preserve a 4 run lead with 2 men on base.

Mike Axisa of RAB has long hinted at sending him back to the minors as a much needed wake up call, and while I understand his rationale I’m not quite there yet. My take is to go in phases, burying him in the bullpen first and letting him earn his demotion step by step. He’s potentially too valuable to just give up on, and all relievers (non-Mariano division) struggle from time to time. One of the top candidates to replace Joba would be David Robertson, who’s just getting past his own early season struggles from April of this year. But that being said, I know where Mike A is coming from. Anyone who has observed Joba’s jiggling midsection as he jogs from the bullpen knows he’s not taking things as seriously as he needs to. There have long been questions about his conditioning and that was likely a big factor in why Joba lost out on the starting role to Phil Hughes this past spring. Success came very quickly and far too easily for Joba, and now he needs to learn the type of commitment it takes to maintain success at this level. If not, then he’ll just be another guy with a great arm who was a flash in the pan in the bigs.

What do you think? What’s your next move with Joba?

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