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Who Is Better, Pedroia or Cano?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 15 Responses »
Apr 272010

From the NY Post:

Reggie Jackson’s belief that Robinson Cano has passed Dustin Pedroia as the premier second baseman in the American League isn’t simply Mr. October’s bias because he works for the Yankees.

“After this season he will be the best second baseman in the American League and then chase Chase [Utley],” Jackson told The Post. “He is a better player than Pedroia and I think Pedroia is a great player, an MVP.”

Jackson has company from the fraternity that scouts everything from tools to makeup.

The Post contacted six scouts and asked them who was better. Three clearly favored the sizzling Cano, another said it was close but went with Cano and while the fourth picked Pedroia, he admitted Cano was the better hitter. The sixth said Cano had better skills but Pedroia’s all-out effort every game made it a push.

I started this post to dispel the notion that Robbie is better, as I was certain that Pedroia has been the better player since he entered the league. However, I always try and go where the data takes me, and now I am not certain that a definitive evaluation can be made on this question. Here are the WAR numbers from baseballprojection.com, with Cano first and then Pedroia:


Using Fangraphs WAR gives a slightly different picture in 2009, with Pedroia edging Cano, but the general point holds true. Cano was better in 2007, they were about equal in 2009, and Pedroia was vastly superior in 2008. Cano also had solid seasons in 2005 and 2006 while Dustin was toiling in the minor leagues. Another important variable is the home road splits:

Cano Home: .307/.336/.485 wOBA: .350
Cano Road: .310/.345/.485 wOBA: .352

Pedroia Home: .326/.384/.501 wOBA: .382
Pedroia Road: .288/.354/.420 wOBA: .341

Cano does not have a noticeable split, while Pedroia clearly benefits greatly from playing in Fenway Park.

I think the choice between Cano and Pedroia hinges upon how heavily you weigh Pedroia’s lesser numbers on the road and Cano’s poor 2008. If you see 2008 as a fluke and consider the home-road splits to be vitally important to this analysis, then you will likely take Cano. If you believe that 2008 is indicative of Cano’s inconsistency and find that the splits are not that significant for a guy who is a pretty good player away from home, you will choose Pedroia. I’m torn on this, although if I was forced to make a choice, I would probably take Dustin. 2008 scares me a bit, and Pedroia is a slightly more well-rounded player. But a choice for Cano would be equally valid, and I’m sure I’ll vacillate on this one as their careers progress.

Who do you think is the better player? Why?

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Curious About Curtis

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Apr 272010

With Mark Teixeira’s and Nick Johnson’s collective struggles at the plate getting a lot of the Yankee press–along with the success of the starting pitchers–Curtis Granderson’s getting lost in the shuffle. Perhaps that’s a good thing, as he’ll be able to fly under the radar and not come under too much scrutiny while getting used to a new environment.

Right now, Curtis is hitting .246/.343/.443/.785/117+. He’s got a .356 wOBA and a 121 wRC+. Combine those offensive numbers with a 1.4 UZR, and you’ve got a 0.6 WAR player so far (over 650 PAs, that’d be a 5.714 WAR player).

All through the winter and Spring Training we were pondering how Granderson would fare against left handed pitching. Thus far, he’s got just a .268 wOBA vs. LHP, though that’s a pretty decent improvement over the .223 mark he had in 2009. Still, that’s not a good number. So, delving deeper into his splits page on FanGraphs, I thought I’d look to see why Curtis is struggling against LHP so far.

The first thing that really caught my eye was the ridiculous walk and strikeout rates. His walk rate versus LHP is a paltry 4.3 and his strikeout rate is an eye-poppingly bad 38.1% (career rates of 9.5% and 23.8%). Let’s see how it’s come to this.

At first, I thought it would be that Granderson was being impatient and not seeing a ton of pitches against left handed pitchers. However, when I crunched the numbers, it turned out that Curtis has seen about 3.9 pitches per PA against lefties. 4.075 P/PA is his career mark and he sees 4.333 P/PA against righties. So, it would seem that seeing pitches isn’t the problem. Unfortunately, FG’s splits don’t include swing numbers against lefties and righties so we can’t see if Curtis is chasing pitches he’s seen against left handers. From my not-too-scientific-observations, though, it’s seemed that Curtis has had a tendency to chase against lefties more so than against righties. Have you guys noticed the same thing? Perhaps that’s what causing Curtis to struggle against lefties. I think, in the end, it’s safe to infer that he’s chasing against lefties, especially considering the very high strikeout rate and very low walk rate. Whatever the problem is, I have faith in Granderson’s talent and hitting coach Kevin long’s ability to diagnose exactly what it is and attempt to correct it. I’m not expecting Granderson to have an even platoon split, but I think he can get up to at least a .270 wOBA vs. LHP by season’s end.

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Could Howard Deal Impact Jeter Negotiations?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 11:00 am 2 Responses »
Apr 272010

From the AP:

Ryan Howard preferred securing his future in Philadelphia to testing free agency in two years — and boy is he getting his pay day.

The slugging first baseman agreed to a $125 million, five-year contract extension Monday that could keep him with the Phillies until 2017…..

While he has put up monster numbers, averaging 49.5 homers and 143 RBIs over the past four years, he has averaged 191 strikeouts over that span.

Howard’s deal could influence Derek Jeter’s next deal with the Yankees and Pujols’ next contract with the Cardinals.

Jeter, who also is represented by Close, is in the final season of a $189 million, 10-year contract.

Pujols is making $16 million this year, and St. Louis has a $16 million option for 2011 with a $5 million buyout. Of the 2011 salary, $4 million would be deferred without interest.

Twins MVP catcher Joe Mauer signed a $184 million, eight-year extension this spring.

“It allowed us to see how the market was shaping up,” Close said of 28-year-old Mauer’s deal.

Upon first glance, it would seem unlikely that Howard’s insane contract will have a major impact on the Jeter negotiations. Howard is a slugging 30 year old first baseman, while Jeter is a shortstop in the latter stages of his career. Players with Jeter’s skill set do not commonly receive deals with average annual values near 20 million, as that sort of contract is generally reserved for the sluggers of the world. Whether that makes sense is another story, but teams tend to pay more for home runs and RBI’s. It seems strange to think that the contract of a much younger player with an entirely different skill set would alter the market on Jeter.

However, upon closer inspection, it is clear that this will impact the Jeter negotiations, for a variety of reasons.

1) The entire market for player salaries just shifted upwards. With Howard getting A-Rod dollars and Joe Mauer nearing that level as well, it will be hard for the Yankees to argue that no one is paying that sort of money anymore. Now that Howard has signed, Albert Pujols may move forward on an extension which could push salaries into a new stratosphere. The market has been established for elite talents, and a 2010 season that is even close to his 2009 will have Jeter claiming that he still belongs in that category. I have a hard time believing he will settle for an AAV under 20 million.

2) Casey Close is Jeter’s agent as well. Close duped Ruben Amaro into giving a player that was under team control through 2011 a 125 million dollar extension for his age 32 through 37 seasons. Cashman is significantly shrewder than Amaro, but I think it is fair to say that Close likely has an inflated sense of what he can draw from a club at this point. I would not be shocked to see a long standoff between the two sides this summer as Close asks for a 5 year deal that would have Jeter signed with the club for as long as A-Rod is locked up.

3) Howard is getting paid for what he has done in the past and what he means to his franchise. There is absolutely no way that the Phillies actually believe Howard is worth 25 million a season in on-field value. Howard was paid because he has been a perennial MVP candidate and is the face of the franchise. Amaro simply could not fathom letting him walk, knowing that Phillies fans had built a bond with a player that had helped them win one World Series and play in another.

The Yankees will be facing a similar situation in Jeter’s case, as he is unlikely to provide enough on-field value to justify the salary he is almost certain to receive. Rather, he will be getting paid, at least in part, for past performance and his status as the Captain and face of the franchise. While many of us may find this stuff silly and insist that Jeter be paid solely based on production, this is not a realistic goal. The club will take Derek’s goodwill value into account when computing a suitable salary level, and I think the Howard contract illustrates what can happen when a team becomes too attached to the “face of the franchise” concept.

Despite the complications presented by the Howard contract, I expect a deal between the Yankees and Jeter to get done. He means too much to the franchise for them to show him the door, and he is very much interested in maintaining his legacy as a career Yankee and the Captain. An agreement simply makes too much sense to fathom him leaving for another club. I see the Yankees offering something in the 3 year, 55-60 million range, Close countering by asking for 5 years and 100 million, and the two sides meeting somewhere around 4 years and 75-80 million. While that is likely to represent an overpayment of at least 5 million per season (minus any off-field value that you believe he brings), it is a burden that the Yankees can shoulder.

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Curt Schilling-Occupation Foole (part deux)

Posted by Steve S. at 7:50 am 10 Responses »
Apr 272010

The always opinionated Curt Schilling was at it again yesterday, this time with our very own Javier Vazquez in his cross hairs. Appearing on ESPN radio’s  Colin Cowherd show yesterday, he made some comments addressing Javier Vazquez’s slow start in pinstripes, and brought up some commonly heard tags on Javier that I think don’t hold much water. Here’s what he said, courtesy of the Daily News:

“I never, ever thought the move to New York the first time was a good one, and I didn’t think this (move) was good as well. I don’t think he suddenly learned how to pitch when he went back to Atlanta and dealt last year,” Schilling said. “It’s hard to say this without sounding disrespectful, and I don’t mean it that way – the National League is an easier league to pitch in, period, and some guys aren’t equipped to get those same outs in the American League. And he’s one of those guys.”

He adds:

“(Vazquez) thrived in Montreal and he thrived in Atlanta, and those are both second-tier cities from a baseball passion perspective. He’s not a guy that I’ve ever felt was comfortable in the glow,” Schilling said. “… You’re seeing what you’re gonna get from him consistently all year. Having said that, he could turn around next week and throw a one-hitter with his stuff. I just don’t see him being a consistent winner in the American League.“

First on the move. Is he arguing that the Yanks would be better off with Melky Cabrera on the team? Melky is barely holding onto his job in Atlanta, hitting .153/.284/.186 over 68 PA for the Braves.  I don’t care if  Vazquez’s right arm falls off tomorrow, the ‘move’ was an absolute steal at the time it was made. His health history is stellar, he gives you league average (or much better) performances annually, and he was only asked to be the Yanks 4th starter this year. There’s not a GM in Baseball who wouldn’t have made that trade, and many of them commented at the time what a terrific deal Cashman struck for his team.

Finally, onto the ‘can’t pitch in the glow’ nonsense. Refresh my memory, but didn’t he pitch well in the first half of the season back in 2004? Wasn’t that in New York? He did, he went 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.154 WHIP. His SO/BB rate was almost 3-1 and he gave up just 105 Hits in 118.2 IP. He was so good, he was named to the All-Star team that year. He wasn’t just bad in the playoffs and World Series that year, he was equally bad for the entire 2nd half, when he says he was pitching hurt. Also, its important to remember that when he gave up the famous Johnny Damon blast, the runners on base were Kevin Brown’s, not his. He was working out of the bullpen in a situation that he had rarely done before, in what was a desperation move by manager Joe Torre, who regrets starting Brown to this day. I’m sure Curt would hate to have his entire career summed up by one bad pitch, yet that’s precisely what he’s doing to Javier.

All of that being said, I don’t doubt that Javier’s confidence is down right now. He’s had trouble getting into a groove so far this year and his results have been horrendous. But he’s been too good of a pitcher for too long not to snap out of it eventually. As an ex-pitcher, you would think that Curt should understand that.

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