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Looking at Tex's Plate Discipline and Batted Ball Data

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 7:00 pm 2 Responses »
Apr 302010

Mark Teixeira has a .152 IsoD. His .127 IsoP is disappointing, but he’s at least taking his walks. And, despite the poor raw stats, he’s still seeing a robust 4.20 pitches per plate appearance. When his batting average does start to rebound, he’ll look a whole lot better. Let’s start with that upcoming rebound.

Tex has started to hit the ball a bit harder of late, or so it’s seemed, but his BABIP still sits at an unthinkably low .153. This comes despite a solid 19.7% line drive rate and first rate raw power. When those line drives start to fall in for hits, the rebound will begin. Obviously, Tex doesn’t have much control over this. All he’s got to do is keep hitting the ball hard.

What’s different from last year, but not wildly different from his career, is that he’s hitting the ball on the ground more. So far, he owns a 41.0% ground ball rate (36.4 in ’09, 39 career). So he’s hitting more grounders than his career numbers suggest he should and more than he was last year. Unfortunately for him, and the Yankees, those grounders aren’t turning into hits.

His fly ball percentage (39.3) is also slightly down from his career mark (39.5), and way down from last year (43.8). My guess? Those fly balls last year more frequently turned into homers and led to more hits. That hasn’t happened yet. It will.

Before Mark hits the ball, he has to see it, right? So let’s look at the pitch data and see what we can find.

The first thing we notice is that his K-Rate is up to 22.8%, which is a 4.1% increase from his 2009 total and a 2.7% increase from his career total. Though he’s seeing a lot of pitches, he’s ending more of his trips to the plate with strike three than before. If this rate continues, it will be the highest percentage of his career.

He’s swinging at about the same amount of out of zone pitches he normally does–just above 20%–and he’s actually making contact with those pitches at a 68.9% rate (average is 64.5, Tex’s career is just below 55%). As for balls in the zone, Tex is swinging at 67.1% of those and making contact 83.7% of the time. Neither of those represent a drastic swing from his norms.

What’s my guess, then? I would guess that the balls Tex is making contact on that are out of the zone are the trouble. I surmise that he is hitting bad pitches weakly and that’s what’s making him ground out and fly out rather than single, double, and homer. If his O-Contact% comes down, his strikeouts may go up (imagine swinging and missing) or his O-Swing% might come down (taking more pitches, more walks). Either way, hopefully the latter, we’re likely to see fewer weakly hit balls off the bat of the first baseman and three hole hitter.

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Discussion: What Would You Do If Nick Johnson Went Down

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 14 Responses »
Apr 302010


As we have stated many times since he signed with the team, Nick Johnson is not the greatest bet to make it through a season unbothered by injuries. Nick has never played more than 147 games, and missed all of 2007 and most of the 2008 season. He has had myriad injuries of all sorts, with various different body parts being afflicted. Already, he has sat a few games with a sore back, and missed a bit of time in Spring Training as well. The question I pose to you is, what would you do if he got injured and was slated to miss a long stretch of games? How would you alter the roster?

As I see it, outside of a trade, there are three options. One option that is quite unlikely to happen is to call up Jesus Montero. While his potential is enticing, he has struggled a bit at AAA and likely needs to log some more at-bats there to adjust to superior pitching. Furthermore, the most important element of development for Montero remains his defense, as his bat is close to ready while his glove lags far behind. Bringing him to the Major Leagues to DH would stop the development of his glove entirely, and would hinder his chances of ever turning into an adequate backstop.

The second option is to call up Juan Miranda. Much like Johnson, he would be the backup first baseman as well, and should be able to provide decent on-base ability and a bit of power. However, he is atrocious against left-handers, with a career .725 OPS against them (vs. .890 against righties) and therefore would need to be platooned with Marcus Thames. That would be a solid platoon, and should keep the Yankees in decent position while Johnson recovers.

The last option is to keep the roster as is in terms of hitters, and simply play Frankie Cervelli at catcher against all right-handers. Basically, Jorge Posada would DH against righties and catch when the opposing pitcher was a lefty (with Thames as the DH). This would help keep Jorge fresh while allowing the team to play their best defensive catcher more frequently. The team could use the extra roster spot to call up Mark Melancon, giving Joe Girardi another arm to throw in the mix.

Thankfully, this is simply a hypothetical at this point, as Johnson has remained relatively healthy. Hopefully, the fact that he is rarely going to play the field will help keep him healthy for the entire year, and these contingency plans are rendered moot. However, if they do need to fill in for him, I would go with the third option and just play Cervelli more. He is not atrocious offensively, and his value defensively makes this the best of the three choices to me.

What do you think?

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Robinson Cano and "clutch"

Posted by Chris H. at 3:03 pm 1 Response »
Apr 302010

According to FanGraphs, a “clutch score” measures “how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in context neutral situations.” Therefore, one can do extremely well in “neutral” (low-leverage) situations, and perform admirably in high leverage situations, yet their performance in high leverage situations isn’t as good as their performance in the neutral situations. Clutch score, in this context, is predicated on the notion of going above and beyond in those pressure packed, game-changing moments. So, if a hitter hits .300 in a neutral situation – no men on base, for example – he should hit .330 with RISP.

Last season, Robinson Cano owned the lowest clutch score in baseball at -2.37. Basically, the disparity between his offensive production in high leverage and neutral situations was tremendous (everyone knew that, too). Thankfully, that has changed this season, in 2010.

Currently, Cano owns a clutch score of -0.42, which is the lowest on the Yankees. However, his score, while negative, speaks more to how great he has been in every situation, as that has led to his negative mark. If Cano is hitting .489/.529/.979 with no men on base, an absolutely mind-boggling offensive line, it is then difficult to go above and beyond with men on base. For Cano to have a positive clutch score, he would have to do even more with RISP, or with RISP with 2 outs. Cano is hitting well with RISP this season as his current triple slash line in such situations is .300/.333/.550. He may not be producing in the way that he does when there are no men on base, but given that he hit .207/.242/.332 with RISP in 2009, his latest clutch score, though a negative number, is certainly read positively.

Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images

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Heyman: Ryan Howard's bat > Mark Teixeira's bat

Posted by Chris H. at 1:00 pm 11 Responses »
Apr 302010


Here’s an interesting comparison via Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated:

That [Ryan] Howard received $2 million more than [Mark] Teixeira also seems about right under the circumstances. Teixeira has a more diverse set of skills, is slightly younger and signed in New York as a free agent, but he couldn’t make a case that he has the same offensive impact as Howard, a classic slugger. With the $39 million Howard is making this year and next on his current deal, that means he’ll get $164 million though 2016, or just $16 million less than the eight-year contract Teixeira signed with the Yankees. Teixeira’s defense is superior, but considering all the variables, $164 million isn’t unreasonably high for Howard.

I would have to disagree with Heyman’s notion that Mark Teixeira “couldn’t make a case that he has the same offensive impact” as Ryan Howard and therefore, because of that advantage, Howard will receive more annual money than Teixeira. I think, because Teixeira walks more, hits for a higher average, strikes out less, and does not give up much to Howard with regards to power (Howard’s ISO is higher, but Tex is no Melky Cabrera), he is as impactful, and maybe even more so. Plus, let’s also not forget that Teixeira is a switch-hitter. As I see it, the Phillies simply overpaid Howard due to who he is—the face of their franchise (the Yankees do that, too, so I’m not knocking the overpay, I’m just demarcating it). It really had nothing to do with being more of an offensive threat than Mark Teixeira.

Photo by Getty Images

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Cano's Success Not A Product Of Melky's Absence

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 11:00 am 6 Responses »
Apr 302010


When Robinson Cano hit his second home run in last night’s game, I sent out a sarcastic tweet about his success being tied to the fact that long time buddy Melky Cabrera was no longer on the team to distract him. Much to my chagrin, a number of people responded by taking my statement literally, and agreed that the absence of Melky was at least part of the reason for Cano’s amazing start. Quite frankly, I think that this is a bit ridiculous, for a variety of reasons.

Most notably, this sort of performance is nothing new for Cano, as he had a similarly hot April in 2009. Robbie hit .366/.400/.581 in last season’s first month, notching 5 home runs and knocking in 16. While his 2010 April has been better than that, the difference is certainly not stark enough to conclude that we are looking at an entirely reborn or more focussed player. I would like to see him sustain his great performance for more than a few weeks (obviously he will not be THIS good all year, but I’d like to see him show improvement over 2009) before I declare that he has taken the next step in his development.

However, even if he does sustain that performance, I still would not link the change to Melky’s departure. Robbie Cano is 27 years old, and is just entering what should be the prime of his career. It is only natural that he would take a step forward this year, simply because he is at the stage of his career where great young talents turn into stars. It is not necessary to impose a ridiculous narrative about Melky and distractions onto these events when a much simpler explanation exists.

Quite frankly, I cannot fathom where this storyline came from in the first place. Cano and Melky were close both on and off the field, but plenty of players have close friends and enjoy the city nightlife. As I recall, Derek Jeter was an avid club-hopper, and even did a commercial with George Steinbrenner that touched on that subject. Cano had one season where he struggled during day games, and suddenly fans were convinced that it was because he was staying up late the nights before games, partying with Melky. This narrative never disappeared, despite evidence that Cano was in fact a very hard worker who tirelessly attempted to hone his craft. Now that Melky is gone and Cano is mashing, the narrative is simply reinforced, despite little evidence to suggest that the two things are related. Cano is not red hot because his distracting buddy is gone. Rather, it is because he is a 27 year old with amazing talent just entering the prime of his career.

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The new AJ Burnett

Posted by Steve S. at 7:50 am 4 Responses »
Apr 302010

Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News

When AJ Burnett signed with Yanks last year, he made much of the fact that he had matured. Going to ‘the School of Halladay’ he learned what it took to stay healthy and not miss so much time with ticky-tack injuries on the DL. He also said that he learned how to become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower. Brian Cashman echoed these sentiments, and it seemed the Yanks were signing a starter who was finally putting all the pieces together. Last year, part of that was true. He showed us that he did indeed learn how to stay healthy, pitching his 2nd consecutive full season without missing any time on the DL. But AJ the pitcher seemed like the same old guy. When his stuff was working, he would dominate. When it wasn’t, even if for just one inning, he would get clobbered. The School of Halladay appeared to have a pupil who quickly forgot what Roy was preaching.

But this year, something’s different. He seems to be relying more on spotting his fastball with good movement and letting his fielders catch the ball behind him. Down in the count, he doesn’t try as often to blow a hitter away, preferring to induce a ground ball. He’s also getting quick outs, something we rarely saw from him last year.

Or at least, that’s what my eyes have been telling me. So I wanted to dig through his numbers to see if they confirm what I’ve been seeing. Looking at his Fangraphs page, some interesting things jump out at me. First, his Ground ball % up from last year, and is identical to that of 2008 (his last year with the Blue Jays). His GB/FB rate is virtually the same as 08 as well. He’s also throwing more fastballs, but his average velocity is down by about 1 MPH. In his case, that’s a good thing. It means he’s either spotting the pitch more with some natural movement on the pitch or he throwing more 2-seamers. Either way, it matches up with the increased ground balls we’ve been seeing. His SO Rate is way down as well, sitting at 5.40/9 IP this year as compared to 8.48 last year. His Walk Rate is also way down, from 4.22/9 IP last year to 2.43/9 IP this year. This is a completely different pitcher from the guy we saw last season. Pitching to contact and trusting the guys behind him to make a play.

To be sure, it’s only 5 starts and the teams he’s faced (BOS/TAM/TEX/LAA/BAL) may have played into this. It’s always tough to hit in cold April weather and veteran hitters are still getting settled into the season. But this is a new AJ Burnett we’ve seen this year, and maybe the best is yet to come after all.

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Swisher's being more aggressive at the plate

Posted by Chris H. at 5:58 pm 1 Response »
Apr 292010

Nick Swisher appears especially excited about his new batting stance. In fact, Swisher is so excited; he seems to be swinging a lot more this season, trying to hit balls in the zone and balls out of the zone. So far, Swisher’s O-Swing percentage is 26.1%, while his career mark is 17.6%. Relative to previous seasons, he’s swinging at quite a few pitches outside of the strike zone. Interestingly, though, he is also making more contact with those pitches, as his contact rate on such offerings is 90.3%, Meanwhile, his career mark in that regard is 84.7%.

The same is occurring for actual strikes, as well, and to a great degree. So far, Swisher has swung at 71% of the pitches he has seen inside of the strike zone. His career Z-Swing percentage, on the other hand, is 61.7% (it was 56.7% last year). Like with balls, Swisher is being very aggressive with pitches over the plate. And, like with pitches outside of the zone, Swisher’s contact rate on strikes is solid at 90.3%. For comparison, his career rate is 84.7%.

We’re only a few games into the season, but Swisher is making more contact (so far). If this approach is maintained, perhaps it will be the end-result of Swisher’s new batting stance.

Photo by Getty Images

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Is Eduardo Nunez The Future At SS?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:30 pm 6 Responses »
Apr 292010

A few days ago, I noted that the Derek Jeter contract situation might get contentious, but that ultimately an agreement made too much sense for both sides. One portion of that belief was the conviction that the Yankees have no one in the system close to ready to take over for Derek, and that he would likely be the best option going forward. I continue to believe that unless the price reaches Ryan Howard levels, Jeter is the best choice, but a number of people asked me about Eduardo Nunez as a possible replacement. Luckily for me, Greg Fertel of Pending Pinstripes recently profiled Nunez:

If you were to start touting Nunez now, based on what he’s done in 2010, I couldn’t argue with you. The sample is small, but what Nunez has done is extremely impressive. On the season, he is hitting .377/.438/.507 with a .413 wOBA. That is a very impressive line, but it is not without the help of an inflated BABIP.

On the year, Nunez holds a career high .391 BABIP. However, he also has a career high 21 percent line drive rate. The BABIP will drop, there’s no doubt about that, but there is still a lot to like.

Nunez has shown great contact ability this season. He has only struck out in five percent of his at bats. Before 2010, his career low strikeout rate was 11.9 percent. He also has a career high walk rate of 10 percent. His previous high was 6.9 percent.

Much like Greg, I have never considered Nunez a real prospect, likely because he was clearly being overhyped by a segment of the fanbase. Furthermore, his defense is not great, his power is minimal, and his batting eye was (until now) atrocious, suggesting that he was simply the beneficiary of some empty minor league numbers that were unlikely to translate into anything more than a utility role with the Yankees. However, as Greg notes, he is giving Yankees fans something to get excited about thus far, albeit in a small sample. If he can maintain the improvements in his plate discipline, that will go a long way towards making him a starting caliber Major League shortstop. I would not count on it, but this is something that is worth tracking for the remainder of the 2010 minor league season.

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Vazquez's horizontal movement

Posted by Chris H. at 1:44 pm 5 Responses »
Apr 292010

Here’s some pitchFX data, via FanGraphs, on Javier Vazquez, detailing the horizontal movement on his pitches.

The peach colored rows represent league averages. Though Vazquez is largely above average (not to a great degree, but above average nonetheless) with each pitch, except for his slider, notice the degree to which Vazquez’s horizontal movement is lacking relative to previous years. His fastball (FA), slider (SL), and curveball (CU) are all moving less this season (thus far). Only Vazquez’s changeup (CH) and his two-seamer (FT) are demonstrating substantial horizontal movement when viewed alongside his career averages (they are actually well above his own averages).

Now, I’m not sure what is causing Vazquez’s horizontal movement issue. It could be mechanical, as that would be the best case scenario. It could also be brought on by an unspoken injury or even a change in velocity. Whatever the case may be, the lack of horizontal movement is likely another reason for Vazquez’s early season struggles.

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Derek's Plate Discipline Dipping?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 8 Responses »
Apr 292010

Derek Jeter’s gotten off to a fine start. He hasn’t quite heated up yet, but he’s not exactly been cold either. Going into last night’s win against the Orioles, his wOBA was at a solid .344, and that’s going to be higher today thanks to a double and a single last night. There is one thing, though, that’s been troubling about the Captain thus far in 2010: his walks. Well, really, it’s the lack of walks that is concerning.

Derek didn’t walk last night and has been sent down to first by four balls only three times this season. At this (very early) point in 2010, Jeter’s walk rate sits at 3.5%. Remember, league average is around 9% and Jeter’s career mark is exactly 9.0%. So while Derek hasn’t been Nick Johnson up there in terms of walks, he’s at least average at taking his free passes. This year, it’s a different story. What’s leading to the lack of walks?

(Note: these numbers do not include last night’s game vs. the Orioles)

Part of the reason is that Derek is seeing (slightly) fewer pitches than normal. Using the FanGraphs numbers (since 2002 only), Jeter’s seen 3.74 pitches per plate appearance. This year, it’s dropped a bit to 3.54. He hasn’t seen that few P/PA since 2004, when he saw the exact same number. Between then and now, the fewest he’d seen in a single season was 3.72 in 2007.

Next is the fact that Jeter is simply swinging at more pitches than normal. Right now, his swing percentage sits at 53.5%, a 5.5% increase over his career mark of 48.0%. It’s also up from last year, when Derek swung at 46% of the pitches he saw (league average is consistently around 45%). This uptick is on both balls in the zone–72.3% this year, 69.9% last year–and out of the zone–33.1% this year, 22.2% last year.

In terms of zone swing percentage, league average is about 65-70% and Jeter’s career percentage is 74.1. It’s worth noting, though, that his Z-Swing% had been trending downward since 2006. Out of zone (O-Swing%) has an average of around 25%, and Jeter’s career mark there is 19.6, but it’s been creeping upwards since 2005 (with the exception of 2009).

For now, Derek has been able to survive his lack of walks because he’s making a lot of contact. His O-Contact% is at a robust 72.1%, which is well above the league average of about 60-65% and his career average of 58.8%. His Z-Contact% is also very high at 95.1% (average is 88%, DJ’s career is 88.9). Overall, Jeter’s making contact on 88.3% of the pitches he sees. The league average contact percentage is about 80, and Jeter’s got an 83% for his career. If Jeter is able to keep making contact and keep turning batted balls into hits–which is possible as he’s due for a bit of a positive BABIP correction–I’ll be able to stomach the lack of walks. However, if his contact rates start to fall back down to his career norms, the small amount of base on balls will grow very frustrating, especially considering Derek’s leadoff spot.

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