IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

Graphing The AL East Projections

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 7:00 pm 4 Responses »
Mar 292010

Dave Allen at Baseball Analysts compiled the projected standings created by the various projection systems, and created a nifty graph to present the data:

As you can see, most of the systems have the division finishing in the same order, going Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays. PECOTA is the lone outlier, but they have been tweaking their system the entire spring and the standings have vacillated with each tweak. The data confirms the generally held belief that the division will be a dog fight between three teams, with the other two likely to come in at below 80 wins. On paper, the Yankees are the class of the division by a small margin, but the margin of error on these projections is generally high enough to make that gap close to meaningless. The Yankees may in fact have the best team, but it should be a thrilling race, and I would not be shocked by any order of finish amongst the three AL East powers.

Tagged with: , , , , ,

Joba's so-called "development program"

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm 7 Responses »
Mar 292010

On Friday, when asked about Joba Chamberlain, who recently lost the fifth starter competition to fellow teammate, Phil Hughes, Yankee GM, Brian Cashman, offered the following. “What we did was, we finished off [Joba’s] development program,” Cashman said. “We have choices with him. He can start if we need him to start, he can relieve if we want him to relieve. So I don’t feel it’s a waste at all. We completed the mission on him, and what will be, will be.” Now, if Joba is expected to join the Yankee rotation in 2011 – many Yankee fans believe that, though I am a bit more skeptical – with no rules attached as the program is, according to Cashman, over, will 200-plus innings be an actual goal?

Joba pitched just under 170 innings in 2009 – regular and postseason included – and will likely toss just under 90 innings in 2010. Is he simply going to slot back into the rotation a season from now after logging such a small amount of innings the year prior? This “development program” seems remarkably haphazard and distinctly unmethodical.

Consistent innings and a steady role are extremely important for pitchers. This build-him-up, scale-him-back, starter, reliever sort of approach – it is not even an approach, really – in my opinion, is hardly constructive developmentally. I think the Yankees know this, however, which is why, as Billy Eppler suggested, Joba could remain in the bullpen beyond the upcoming season.

Photo by Getty Images

Tagged with: , , , , , ,

Early and Irresponsible Awards Picks

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 4 Responses »
Mar 292010

It’s March 29th. The season doesn’t even start for another six days. However, in this lull before the start of the season, there isn’t all that much to talk about. I’m sure you’re all incredibly tired of talking about Joba/Hughes (though I doubt we’ve heard the last of that situation, including from me), so I thought I’d go a little more whimsy with my post for this Monday and give some very early picks for the awards. The guys over at Mystique and Aura recently did the same, so go check their predictions out, too.

Let’s start at the top with the MVP Awards. Three of the last five years, the NL installment has gone to Albert Pujols, but this year, I think it’ll go to someone who probably would’ve had one by now, if not for Mr. Pujols: Chase Utley. This isn’t to say that Pujols won’t have an MVP caliber season, but I think Utley will finally get his recognition. As more and more people pay attention to defense, they’ll hopefully see what a total package Utley is and give him his due.

As for the American League, like Steve H at Mystique and Aura, I’m gonna go A-Rod. He finished 10th in the voting last year despite missing a month and, with a full season, he could put up monster numbers again. His numbers likely won’t be quite as epic as his 2007 MVP campaign but with the addition of Nick Johnson (along with Tex and Jeter), Rodriguez will easily knock in 100. Voters still love HRs and RBI and A-Rod gets these in big bunches. In 2010, A-Rod will finally win an MVP in an even numbered year.

The Cy Young Award is a wide open race like it is every single year. Tim Lincecum’s won it two years in a row in the NL and I predict the award will stay in California this year. However, it won’t be in San Francisco; it’ll be in Los Angeles. in my NL West post, I said to watch for Clayton Kershaw and I think he could win the award this year. He’ll need to bring the walks down below 4.8 but with the way he misses bats, Kershaw could be the NL’s best this year.

For the AL, I’m gonna guess a previous winner: Cliff Lee. He’s a fly ball type pitcher in a big ballpark with some incredible defense in the outfield. There are some health issues, though, so he could miss time. If he does, his teammate Felix Hernandez could win the award. I think the top three of the CY this year will be some combination of Lee, Hernandez, and our very own CC Sabathia.

Alright, that takes care of the major ones, so let’s move on to the other ones, without much explanation.

SILVER SLUGGERS (AL/NL):
C: Joe Mauer/Brian McCann
1B: Mark Teixeira/Albert Pujols
2B: Robinson Cano/Chase Utley
3B: Alex Rodriguez/Pablo Sandoval
SS: Derek Jeter/Troy Tulowitzki
LF: Carl Crawford/Matt Holliday
CF: Grady Sizemore/Matt Kemp
RF: J.D Drew/Jayson Werth

GOLD GLOVES (AL/NL, not necessarily pos. spec. for each OF spot):
C: Joe Mauer/Yadier Molina
1B: Kevin Youkilis/Albert Pujols
2B: Dustin Pedroia/Chase Utley
3B: Evan Longoria/Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Elvis Andrus/Troy Tulowitzki
OF: Brett Gardner, Franklin Gutierrez, Ichiro Suzuki/Jayson Werth, Nyjer Morgan, Colby Rasmus

RELIEF MAN OF THE YEAR (AL/NL):
Mariano Rivera/Jonathan Broxton

MANAGER OF THE YEAR (AL/NL):
Don Wakamatsu/Jim Tracy (The CoRox may just win the WC or NLW)

So, there you have it. On March 29th, I’ve made my official award season predictions for 2010. When the season’s over, we’ll look back on these and either laugh, cry, or marvel in my all knowing-glory. Either way, I’m excited for the season to start in less than a week. We need real baseball in the worst way.

RAB's Axisa: Develop Joba In Bullpen, Not AAA

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Mar 292010

When the Yankees announced that Joba Chamberlain was headed to the bullpen, most of the Yankee blogging community went into a tizzy. While most conceded that picking Hughes over Joba was a defensible decision, we were confused as to why Joba was going to the bullpen rather than AAA, where he could further develop as a starter. One notable exception was Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues, who graciously agreed to speak to me on the subject.

Me: A few days ago, I stated that I could survive if Joba went to the bullpen, provided that he uses all his pitches and that he went back to the rotation in 2011. Many bloggers have disagreed and believe that he should be in AAA no matter what the circumstances. When this same discussion was brought up a few weeks ago regarding Phil Hughes, you advocated that he go to the bullpen rather than AAA. Do you feel the same way about Joba, and why?

Mike: I do still feel the same way. The biggest thing he has to work on is his command and willingness to attack the zone. Triple-A hitters are in Triple-A for a reason, they’re not good enough for the big leagues. Joba can still nibble down there like he did last year, except he’ll get outs because hitters will chase. There’s nothing to be learned by that.

It sounds harsh, but he’ll have to take his lumps in his big leagues if he wants to improve. This isn’t something unique to Joba, basically all young pitchers go through it. And you know what? There’s a chance he’ll never learn to be more aggressive, and if that’s the case, then he was never going to be great to begin with.

Me: Are you concerned that he will not be using all of his pitches in the bullpen? He has already stated that he will be almost exclusively fastball-slider in the bullpen. What happens to those other pitches?

Mike: Yeah somewhat, but I think that concern is generally overstated. It’s been clear that he would be a fastball-slider guy since college, the curve and change just came along for the ride.

Me: What about the decrease in innings? If the organization changes it’s stance and Joba goes into the rotation in 2011, do you think that jumping from around 80 innings back to the rotation might be a problem?

Mike: The innings thing sucks, it does. I don’t think he can throw 80 or even 100 innings out of the pen this year and then magically go into 2011 as an uncapped starter. He’ll have to be built back up.

But as far as I’m concerned, innings are secondary to learning how to pitch. I’d rather see Joba spend the year in the bullpen learning how to attack hitters so he can give you say, 150 above average innings in 2011 instead of spending the year in Triple-A overmatching hitters so he can give you 200 league average or worse innings in 2011. It would be a different story if he was 5 years older than he actually is. The sooner he learns how to consistently get big league hitters out, the better.

Me: That sounds eminently reasonable. Last question, Mike. It seems like you have a pretty clear plan for how you would develop Joba. If you could go back and start over in August 2007, and put yourself in Cashman’s shoes, is there anything you would have done differently from 2007-2009 in terms of Joba’s development?

Oh sure, in hindsight moving him to the bullpen in 2007 was a mistake for his development (he certainly helped them get into the playoffs, so it worked in that sense). Remember, he pulled a hamstring in Spring Training and didn’t get into a minor league game until May. If he stays healthy, then he would have hit his limit at the end of July instead of the end of August, and calling him up wouldn’t even have been an option. I thought in 2008 that he should have started in the rotation instead of either Hughes or IPK (probably IPK knowing me), then you worry about shutting him down when he gets whatever his limit was.

There’s a lot of people clinging to that 2007 reliever version of Joba, and he’s just not coming back. Even if he was still throwing 100, it wouldn’t matter, it was an unsustainable pace.

Thanks again to Mike for answering my questions. I think he makes a strong argument, and he certainly has me reconsidering the issue. Are you convinced?

Tagged with: , , , , , ,

Cashman discusses Eppler's Joba admission

Posted by Chris H. at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Mar 292010

Yesterday, Steve pointed to an interesting WFAN interview from Saturday, in which the Yankees’ director of professional scouting, Billy Eppler, discussed Joba Chamberlain’s future as a pitcher. To the dismay of many – myself included – in the interview, Eppler basically stated that Joba would remain a reliever in 2011, rather than transition back to the starting rotation. Luckily, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch caught up with Yankees GM, Brian Cashman, to discuss Eppler’s comments, and he seemed to indicate that Eppler was offering a personal opinion – his perspective on what Joba’s future should look like – not a plan of action that had already been agreed upon by those within the organization.

“We haven’t had any team meeting and said, ‘He’s a reliever for the rest of his life,’” said Cashman, claiming that the Eppler interview was an example of the “healthy dialogue going on behind the scenes” regarding Joba’s role. “Billy’s good,” Cashman added, “He’s been an asset and he’s going to continue to be an asset… Although, at times, I might disagree with his opinion, he makes us better. I want him to be out there talking to you guys as much as he can. I don’t want him shying away from his opinion.” Note Cashman’s repeated use of the word opinion here. He is trying to frame Eppler’s comments as such, though it did seem as if Eppler was speaking for the club at the time of his interview.

Photo by Getty Images

Tagged with: , ,

Werth lunches with Reggie, denies Yankee recruiting

Posted by Steve S. at 6:44 am 6 Responses »
Mar 292010

Paul Hagen of Philly.com has a follow up to the recent NY Post story about Reggie Jackson getting together with Phillies Right Fielder Jayson Werth. He downplayed the meeting as a Yankee recruiting effort, but did say something interesting. Here’s the story:

The New York Post reported over the weekend that Yankees Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson and Phillies rightfielder Jayson Werth had an hourlong lunch at the Tampa Hyatt last Friday afternoon and then another on-field conversation before that night’s exhibition game at George M. Steinbrenner Field.

The strong implication was that Jackson was doing some early recruiting since Werth can be a free agent at the end of the season.

Jackson was a Yankees teammate of Werth’s stepfather, Dennis, from 1979 through 1981. And Werth’s mother, Kim, is the sister of Dick Schofield, who played with Reggie on the Angels from 1983 to ’86.

According to the paper, the Yankees denied that Jackson was representing the team in any way and general manager Brian Cashman said he was unaware that a meeting had taken place.

From the day he arrived in camp this spring, Werth has consistently maintained that his only concern is helping the Phillies win in 2010.

“Reggie’s an old family friend,” Werth said after yesterday’s game was canceled. “I’ve known him since I was 7 years old, I think. I’ve known him forever. There’s nothing to tell, really. Two friends having lunch.”

While there are rules against tampering, this would seem to fall into a gray area, even if Jackson had just happened to mention the benefits of playing for the Yankees during the conversation.

“What we talked about is our business. But, honestly, it was just two friends having lunch,” Werth said.

Given the rules on tampering, if I was recruiting someone I would do it exactly the same way. Talk in generalities, and try to get a sense of where the player is at. We know that the Yanks will have an interest in Werth, but what level of interest remains to be seen. If Brett Gardner has a big season (like Kevin Long thinks he will) they could be happy with their current outfield arrangement. They could be more interested in Carl Crawford, but Carl is a prime candidate to get traded mid-season and could sign an extension with his new team. They may not have any payroll space left if they sign a big pitcher like Cliff Lee, since they also have Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera to bring back. This is an interesting little tidbit, but I wouldn’t pencil him into the 2011 lineup just yet. I think they’re just covering their bases.

On a side note, Brian Cashman being unaware of the meeting is a little hard to swallow. He seems to want to muddy the waters at every turn. His lieutenants were just giving their own personal opinions about Joba yesterday, and yet those are two of the same people who will have the most input on where Joba is used. Whenever there is talk of any player, on his team or another, his answer is some variation of “Hey, you never know”. He should be doing Lotto commercials. He insists on having complete control of the Baseball ops in 05, and ever since then he has no idea what’s going on about anything. Color me dubious.

Tagged with: ,
© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha