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Flaherty disses A-Rod (sort of)

Posted by Chris H. at 10:15 pm 15 Responses »
Mar 182010

I’m calling it a diss, although you might disagree.

Here’s the quote in question, via Seth Livingstone of USA Today:

John Flaherty, former big-league catcher in his fifth season as a broadcaster for the YES Network, came up through the Boston Red Sox system ahead of Garciaparra and now sees Jeter and Rodriguez on a regular basis. He remembers well the discussions in the clubhouse similar to those among fans who debated the merits of the three stars.

“(Players would say) Alex might have the best all-around ability of the three — the fielding, the power, the tools scouts would see,” Flaherty says. “But then you’d go in a different direction: Who would you want on your team? Who would you want up in a big spot? Kind of throw the tools and talent out and the competition starts coming. You’d start thinking about Derek and Nomar.”

Each was different when it came to working them behind the plate.

“Nomar went up there, and you knew the first thing he saw he would let it fly,” Flaherty says. “He could do some damage on the first pitch of an at-bat. There was no trying to set him up. He wasn’t going to give you a strike. He was going to be very aggressive and, in Fenway, create a lot of damage.

“Derek’s the same way — very aggressive. He’s not going to hurt you as much (with power), but in a big spot you really had to be careful.

“Alex was more patient. He would try to work into a hitter’s count, so you could try to jump ahead, get strike one, then go to work.”

There’s a tacit, “Alex Rodriguez isn’t clutch,” argument embedded in here, isn’t there?

Photo by the AP

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Yanks likely to announce 5th starter next week

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm 6 Responses »
Mar 182010

Not sure if this was mentioned at some point earlier this week, but, according to Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, Yankees skipper, Joe Girardi, “has said he would like to decide on a fifth starter by next Thursday or Friday,” meaning that it is imperative for each of the five competing starters vying for the team’s final rotation spot to make the best of their remaining opportunities (possibly one more game a piece). Basically, this is it. It’s crunch time down in Florida.

Now for a quick tangent…

When you think about it strictly from a statistical perspective, spring training “battles” – assuming there are absolutely no preconceived notions going into them – are extremely asinine. In essence, Girardi, an example here, is making a pivotal pitching decision, one with real consequences, based on a few abbreviated and meaningless outings. Now, I do not view the Yankees’ fifth starter battle as a true spring competition, as Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain have always seemed to have inside tracks, but it is still worth noting the inanity of the longstanding spring competition. The only utility I see provided by this practice is that it forces a complacent player to think he is fighting for his spot.

In this case, Joba Chamberlain is that particular player.

Photo by the AP

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Guest Post: Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and 2011 Free Agency: Irresponsible Speculation

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 16 Responses »
Mar 182010


The last of our guest posts was done by (sic). Some of you might recognize him from RAB as “the artist formerly known as (sic)” or from twitter as @tafkasic, and you can read more of his work at thebatshatters.blogspot.com. He took a look at the 2011 free agent market and the Yankees’ place within it. It is an entertaining read that I think you will enjoy.

The 2010-2011 offseason could be one of the most exciting Hot Stove periods in recent memory for Yankees fans. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera will both become free agents, and the contracts of Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez will both expire. Additionally, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Ted Lilly and Brandon Webb will all become free agents. Will CC and Cliff Lee stand side-by-side in pinstripes as the new New York Knick LeBron James throws out the first pitch of the 2011 season, causing the entire city of Cleveland to light itself on fire? Will they go for shorter contracts on pitchers, and pursue speedster Carl Crawford? Will they package IPK and Melky for Johan Santana? Wait…what?

There are a lot of moving parts, so the best way to attack this is to determine how much cash the Yankees will have to spend, try to hazard a guess at how much Lee and Crawford will earn on the open market, and see if there are any scenarios in which one, or both, fit into the Yankees 2011 payroll.

For the sake of simplicity, I’m going to be making several assumptions. First, I’m assuming that the Yankees resign Jeter for something close to $100M over 5 years. I’m also assuming the Rivera is resigned for $30M over 2 years. Finally, I’m assuming that the 2011 payroll will be in the $200-210M range. The first two are huge assumptions, obviously, but I can’t see those two leaving. The money may be different, but hopefully won’t be too much in excess of what I’m envisioning.

2011 Salary Commitments
Thanks to the invaluable tool at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we see that New York already has $144M committed to the 2011 payroll. When you add my proposed $20M to Jeter and $15M to Rivera, and the payroll is already at $179M. From there, you have to factor in raises for Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, who will become eligible for arbitration for the first time. Using Liriano as a comparison, it won’t be unexpected to see them both pull in $1.5M apiece. This bumps the payroll up to $182M, and I’m going to round it up to $183M to cover raises for Boone Logan, if he’s still around, and for the pre-arb guys like DRob, Aceves and others.

With a budget of $183M, the Yankees will have, at the most, $17-27M to spend.

2011 Free Agents
The premier OF free agent in 2011 will be Carl Crawford. Crawford will be 28 years old at the time of his next deal, and is the owner of a career tripleslash of .295/.335.437, an OPS of .772. This line is a bit misleading, because its weighed down by his first two seasons as a 20 and 21 year old when he posted a line of .274/.304/.364. If you remove that, he’s good for a .300/.342/.456 line. Crawford has averaged 50 steals per year over 7 full seasons and has posted phenomenal defensive numbers over the course of his career in LF.

I can’t envision Crawford earning as much as Holliday, who scored a $120M/7 year deal from the Cardinals. A better comparison might be Jason Bay, even though Crawford and Bay are as different as they come in LF. Bay received a 4 year deal worth $66M, with a $17M vesting option for the 5th year from the Mets, a total value of 83M over 5 years. Still, I expect Crawford’s lack of power to keep the value of his deal low, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him find a new home for a contract of 5 years and 65M, an AAV of 13M. His age, his defense, and his speed will work in his favor, but his lack of power ought to prevent him from earning an eight-digit deal.

Cliff Lee is the biggest starting pitcher to hit the market in 2011. He’s the owner of a career ERA+ of 109, but has seemingly put it all together to become one of the best pitchers in the game. In his last two years, he’s posted a 2.89 ERA over 455 IP, striking out 6.9 batters per nine and walking only 1.5 per nine. His K/BB ratio over that period is one of the best, 4.56. That’s superb. The risk with Lee is his somewhat low K/9, and his age. As a 31 year old free agent, it’s hard to see Lee getting more than five or six years guaranteed, despite the Phillies’ claims that he is looking for “Sabathia-type” money. Instead, I look for Lee to receive a six year deal worth $100M, an AAV of $16.67M. It’s expensive, but it is becoming increasingly rare to see bona fide aces hit the open market in free agency, and Lee’s price may go up even further if the Red Sox sign Josh Beckett to an extension.

Roster Analysis
The most obvious holes in the 2011 roster are starting pitching and LF. Here’s where it gets dicey (as if it weren’t already confusing):

Scenario 1: Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain have successful, injury-free 2010 campaigns, and are considered locks for the 2011 rotation.
In this scenario, the Yankees can simply resign Pettitte to another one-year deal worth around $11M. This would bump payroll to around $194M, and leave around $6-14M to spend elsewhere. With a full rotation, the Yankees could become players for Crawford. Signing him to a $13M AAV deal would max out the payroll for 2011.

Scenario 2: Either Hughes or Joba gets injured or very ineffective in 2010, and is slotted for a spot in the bullpen in 2011.
Here, the Yankees will only have 3 starters under contract for 2011. If they bring back Pettitte for around $11M, they’ll have $6-14M to spend elsewhere, and will need a fifth starter. The Yankees could attempt to pursue Lee, creating a formidable rotation of Sabathia-Lee-Burnett-Pettitte-Joba/Hughes. This would leave them unable to sign Crawford and completely maxed out on budget.

Scenario 3: The Andy Pettitte Era ends
If Pettitte decides to retire, or the Yankees decide to go in a different direction, then any number of things could happen. With a healthy Joba and Hughes in the rotation, the Yankees could bring in Lee for $16.67M per and sit right at the $200M threshold. This would give them a rotation of Sabathia-Lee-Burnett-Chamberlain-Hughes, and leave them with up to $10M to spend elsewhere.

Scenario 4: The Andy Pettitte Era ends and only Joba or Hughes is in the bullpen
If one of Chamberlain or Hughes is in the bullpen, or injured, then the Yankees would still need a fifth starter in addition to Sabathia, Lee, Burnett and Hughes/Joba. Here, we might see the Yankees use Zach McAllister in the 5 spot, or attempt to bring back Vazquez for $10M per year. Other alternatives include Lilly or Webb.

Scenario 5: The Twins fail to resign Joe Mauer
Twins fans, avert your eyes! If Mauer hits the market, all bets are off with Lee and Crawford. The Yankees could offer Mauer a deal of $180M over 8 years, an AAV of $22.5M. Assuming they were able to outbid the Red Sox and ink him to a deal like this, no sure thing, they would see their budget rise to around $205-207M. Accordingly, they would need Joba and Hughes to man the 3 and 4 spots in the rotation, and then attempt to get a 5th starter for cheap. Signing Mauer would also mean the end of the Jesus Montero experiment at catcher, and so the Yankees could shift him to LF and have him split time with Posada at DH. Scenarios like this are why non-Yankee fans hate us so very, very much.

Summary
Personally, I think Scenario 5 is very unlikely. I think the Twins will pony up the dough they’re about to get from their new stadium and sign him to an extension, allowing Twins fans everywhere to come back in off the ledge. That said, I can’t see the Yankees landing both Crawford and Lee. Their payroll is already precipitously high, and management shows no inclination to blow past the $210M ceiling. Of the four remaining scenarios outlined above, I’m fairly excited about #3, even though it involves saying farewell to Andy Pettitte. Signing Lee would provide them with a second ace, and a good hedge against the risk of Sabathia leaving after 2011. The best thing that can happen to the Yankees in the meantime is Joba and Hughes putting together successful 2010 campaigns, which will give the Yankees more flexibility and more options going into the 2010-2011 Hot Stove.

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Should The Yankees Pursue Elijah Dukes?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Mar 182010


(I know, terrible headline. The NY Post would be proud).
As I am sure most of you know by now, Elijah Dukes was released by the Nationals yesterday. The Nats stated clearly that Elijah had not done anything wrong in terms of behavior, and that this was purely a baseball decision. The first question on the mind of many Yankee fans was, should the Yankees pursue Dukes?

Last offseason, I felt fairly strongly that the Yankees should try and trade for Elijah:

If I were Brian Cashman, I would strongly consider swinging a deal for Dukes. The Nats have a very weak farm system, so that the Yankees may be able to put together a package of pitchers enticing enough to aquire the mercurial outfielder. He would fill the Melky Cabrera role in 2009, as he is a much better bat than Melky, is not appreciably worse in the field, and runs as well as, if not better than, Cabrera. He would allow the Yankees to field offers on Xavier Nady at the deadline, and could slot into left field in 2010 when Damon and Nady leave. At worst, he would give the Yankees the ability to walk away from Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez if the cost got too high.

I turned out to be wrong about Melky, and he put up a strong year while Dukes regressed mightily. The regression was such that if Dukes would cost prospects now I would definitely stay away from him. However, being that he is now a free agent likely to command a minor league deal or something close to the minimum, he becomes a more interesting option. Let’s take a look at the pros and cons:

Pros
1) He has plenty of talent: He had a poor 2009 that was marred by injury and a strange loss of power, but his 2008 was fantastic. I’ll let JMK at Mystique and Aura explain:

Dukes mostly destroyed the minors in the Tampa Bay system, then struggled mightily in his 2007 callup, and was shuttled off to Washington, where he rebounded to hit a line of .264/.386/.478/.864, an OPS+ of 127 in 81 games. His power numbers were excellent with .214 ISO, and he posted a strong UZR in RF (11.2), albeit in a very small sample. He snagged a few bags, too. All in all, Dukes was one of the few bright spots in Washington that year with his 2.8 WAR.

Those numbers from 2008 represent those of a star in the making. I am not really sure why he fell of a cliff in 2009, but it is clear that he has the skills and athleticism to be an above average player with the bat and adequate with the glove.

2) He projects to be better than the Yankees current options at 4th and 5th outfielder, and may be better than Brett Gardner: His projected wOBA based on an average of four projection systems is .346, significantly better than that of Jaime Hoffmann, Marcus Thames, and Randy Winn. Brett Gardner would likely remain the starter as he is a bit closer with the bat than the others and is much stronger with the glove than Dukes, but it is not hard to envision Dukes wresting the job from Brett at some point. Dukes is also a right-handed bat, so he provides the same advantages that a guy like Thames or Hoffmann does. From a purely baseball standpoint, this is a logical move that would improve the ballclub.

3) This is a good fit for Dukes: While he may not start right away, New York is likely his best shot to play in a winning environment for the first time while also affording him a reasonable chance of grabbing a starting spot. Being that Dukes has played for two awful franchises thus far, it might be a strong motivator for him to play with regularity for a winner.

4) He’s cheap, you can cut ties immediately if there is a problem, and he gives them options next offseason: Dukes will likely require less than a million dollars to sign, and can be stashed in the minors if he does not make the team immediately. Furthermore, there is no real downside here. If he acts up or plays poorly, he can simply be cut or traded without any repercussions. On the flip side, if he plays well and behaves, he can allow the Yankees to pass on an expensive left fielder such as Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford this offseason. It is the very definition of low risk, high reward.

Cons

1) His performance dropped in 2009, and he cannot stay healthy: His performance in 2009 was fairly shoddy, and he gained a reputation amongst National fans for having poor baseball instincts in the field and on the basepaths. The article quoted above from M & A suggests that pitchers were picking on him by throwing significantly more breaking pitches, and the Fangraphs data does support the idea that pitchers were cutting down on fastballs to Dukes. Furthermore, Dukes has had trouble staying on the field, with 4 stints on the DL over the last 2 seasons. Then again, if he gets hurt, the Yankees would simply be right back where they are right now.

2) There are some very serious behavioral issues. I do not want to sweep these under the rug, because Elijah has had some serious issues that include multiple arrests and prompted the Nationals to hire someone to follow him around and keep him out of trouble. Furthermore, dropping that a player with that sort of history into the shark tank that is the NY media frenzy may not be the brightest of ideas.

That said, I think that the Yankee clubhouse might be the best place for Dukes, as it is a tight-knit group filled with professionals who can set a positive example. Dukes is unlikely to disrupt such a veteran clubhouse, and as Mike Axisa explains, it might be the right place for Dukes to learn how to be a positive asset to a baseball team:

I think this is exactly the kind of support system that could help him thrive. Joe Girardi and Jorge Posada provide the tough love, A.J. Burnett and Nick Swisher would allow him to loosen up and be himself, and even guys like Alex Rodriguez and Joba Chamberlain, who’ve had their fair share of off-the-field troubles, can help him relate. I hate to bring race into it, but CC Sabathia and Curtis Granderson are two African American guys widely considered to be class acts and great people, and I can’t help but think they would be a positive influence on Dukes.

Might that be wishful thinking? Certainly. But once again, if he does something stupid and becomes a distraction, the Yankees can simply cut him. While it may add to the media circus around the Yankees, that should be irrelevant to the club, as they are certainly used to that sort of thing. I think that this is a risk worth taking.

Do you agree?

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On Brett Gardner and his skill set

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Mar 182010

Wednesday, Chad Jennings wrote an article about Brett Gardner and how he has the “inside track” for the centerfield job. We’ve already discussed that quite a bit, so I wanted to talk about something else that caught my eye.

Brett Gardner

But those numbers hide two things Gardner has done better than any other outfield candidate in Tampa: He’s walked twice as often as he’s struck out, and two of his three hits were bunt singles. Dropping bunts and avoiding strikeouts have been two of the necessary adjustments to Gardner’s game.

I will not argue with the latter part. Gardner avoiding strikeouts is crucial. In both his Major League (.352 SLG, .096 IsoP) and Minor League (.383 SLG, .094 IsoP), Brett Gardner has not hit for nearly enough power to justify the amount of strikeouts he’s had. He made up for it in the minors with a walk rate that pushed 14%, but that wild success hasn’t followed to the majors. His walk rate is still okay at 8% in the bigs, but with his lack of power, we shouldn’t be expecting the walks to keep coming.

Gardner has not shown any power ability at the Major League level and once pitchers start getting hip to that, they will challenge him in the zone. They may think, “What’s the worst that could happen? This guy’s not going to take me deep. And, he may even get himself out with a strikeout.” The less power Gardner has, the more he’s going to be challenged. If he’s going to be challenged in the zone more, the walks will definitely decrease. There are two ways he can combat this. Well, there’s really only one. Developing power just isn’t going to happen for Gardner, so instead, he must improve his eye and put more swings on balls in the zone.

In 2009, he displayed a good eye. He swung at only only 17.2% of pitches outside of the strike zone, while the average hitter swung at 25.1% of balls out of the zone. Laying off of bad pitches isn’t Gardner’s problem. His problem is laying off of pitches in the zone. His zone swing percentage was only 50.7, 15.2 points behind the league average of 65.9%. This is something that could have contributed to Gardner’s relatively high strikeout numbers. While his K% (16.1) was lower than the league average (20.3), it’s a bit much for a guy who hits for as little power as Gardner does. Brett has to do a better job of recognizing good pitches and turning them into singles, with the occasional double.

The part of Jennings’ article I disagree with is the part about Gardner improving his bunting. While it’s good for a bottom of the order hitter to be skilled at bunting, I’m not sure how much sense it makes for Gardner. While he does have the speed to beat out good drag bunts, how often will that happen? A good part of Gardner’s offensive contribution is his speed on the basepaths. If he’s giving himself up through bunts, he won’t be able to get on base as much as when he’s swinging away or working a walk. A sporadic sac bunt out of Gardner will be a good thing since he’s not exactly a big bopper, but the more he works on bunting, the less he works on actual hitting (see above paragraphs). I’d much rather Gardner work on turning good pitches into singles than see him work on turning good pitches into bunts–be they sacrifices, drags, or foul balls.

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Second thoughts on Spring Training 'competitions'

Posted by Steve S. at 6:28 am 2 Responses »
Mar 182010

While we all have bitched about the absurdity of a spring training competition for the #5 spot for all sorts of valid reasons, I want to take a step back for one minute and look at it from an organizational and developmental standpoint. All of the pitchers involved (including the top 2) have parts of their game that they needed to work on and focus on correcting:

-Joba has had trouble finding his fastball early in games, and hasn’t been very efficient as a Starter. His pitch selection makes you scratch your head at times as well. He has also had weight issues in the past, and at times last year looked soft and out of shape.

-Hughes has been working on that changeup since he was in AA. His splits facing lefties as a MLB starter are awful. Even with adding a Cutter last year he still showed a substantial split. He needs an effective change to take it to the next level as a starter.

-Alfredo Aceves needs to show he’s more than just a 6th starter/long man.

-Mitre needs to show that he’s fully recovered from TJ and that he’s better than the pitcher we saw last year.

Each of these guys have something to prove this Spring. Setting up a competition with the carrot of the #5 spot as the prize will get all of the participants to bear down and try to figure out how to do what they know the Yanks are looking for. It can help them take that next developmental step forward. Reports of Hughes’ improved change shouldn’t just be taken for granted, I think the Yanks know of his desire to start and have used that motivation to make him a better pitcher. It’s smart to do it now, in the heat and fog of the regular season it’s much harder for a player to focus on these things.

I’m not saying the Yanks deserve all the credit for the players performance(s) but I do think they deserve some. When you see players taking a step forward in this context, it’s something you have to consider. Look at this Joba quote from yesterday:

“I give [Girardi] a little bit of the credit, because sometimes you need a little bit of a kick in the rear,” Chamberlain said.”

The Yanks deserve praise for how they’ve run this camp. Many other teams are just going through the motions, getting in shape for the season. The Yanks are using this time to maximize every asset they have, and the 5th starter competition is part of that process.  Girardi loves to set up these competitions each spring, and has often said “it brings out the best in everyone”. It sounds trite (and it is) but that doesn’t mean it isn’t true. To me, this is just another example of why they’re a well-run organization.

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