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Girardi: Starting Now, It Counts

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 7:00 pm 4 Responses »
Mar 112010

From Sam Borden:

Girardi has said he hopes to make a decision during the final week of March, and — as pitch counts rise and workloads increase — he expects both Hughes and Chamberlain (as well as Mitre and Aceves) to start mixing consistent pitching in their areas of focus with positive results.

“After this one,” Girardi said, “we’re really going to start making our evaluations.”

Spring training results generally do not mean much, as pitchers are working on specific pitches and skills rather than taking the most effective approach towards attacking hitters. That said, if the Yankees feel the need to base their decisions on a three week competition, eventually results will have to enter the equation. I still believe Joba Chamberlain will win the spot, but further outings similar to his first two might preclude that. Beginning with his next start, results will matter. Hopefully, Joba will seize the opportunity.

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Yanks to introduce Towers on Tuesday

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm No Responses »
Mar 112010

According to Tom Krasovic of FanHouse (props to RAB), next Tuesday, the Yankees will announce the hiring of former Padres GM, Kevin Towers. Towers will serve as a special scouting assistant to his friend, Brian Cashman, and will begin working in that capacity following his introduction. A good baseball brain, Towers will be a valuable asset to the organization and is an exciting addition to the front office. It will be interesting to see what impact he has this year.

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Melancon a "victim" of the Yankees' relief depth

Posted by Chris H. at 3:00 pm 14 Responses »
Mar 112010

Right-handed relief prospect, Mark Melancon, previously hailed as Mariano Rivera’s successor because of his live heater and hard curve, tossed 16 1/3 innings last season posting a 3.86 ERA. A closer look at his numbers indicates a much weaker performance than his ERA suggests, however, as Melancon walked 5.51 batters per nine and only struck out an identical 5.51 batters per nine, leading to a 4.44 FIP. Not too impressive, right? This was obviously an extremely small sample though, a mere handful of nervous rookie innings that were atypical of the work Melancon had done while in the minor leagues. With just over 150 innings pitched in the Yankees’ farm system, the confident righty boasts a 2.54 ERA and a 0.906 WHIP, numbers which are understandable given his dominant minor-league peripherals (9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9). Basically, down on the farm, he has been as effective as anyone could have hoped.

And so, I wonder, what will happen to Melancon this season? I definitely expect to see him, at some point, and believe he would be a tremendous asset to the team’s relief corps. Yet, with an already crowded bullpen, it seems the soon-to-be 25-year old will be slated for Scranton for most of the year, although someone could certainly falter or experience an injury that would alter such an outcome. CHONE projects Melancon to post a 4.42 FIP this season and Marcel sees a 4.23 FIP, but, given his legitimate success in the minors, his stuff, and his makeup, I’m inclined to believe FanGraphs’ fan projection, which forecasts the Colorado native as a 3.33 FIP pitcher with stellar peripherals. So far this spring, Melancon has appeared in 2 games, giving up 2 hits and striking out 3 over 2 2/3 innings pitched.

It’s a shame we won’t see Melancon more this season, but, I guess that is a testament to the team’s bullpen depth.

Photo by the AP

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Players to Watch, NL Central

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Mar 112010

On Monday, I widened my scope on baseball and listed some players to watch for the NL West. Today, I’m gonna run down the not-too-highly-regarded National League Central Division. Despite producing a World Series winner recently–the 2006 Cardinals–fans, especially those of the AL East tend to think of the NL Central as one of the weakest divisions in the game. Regardless, there’s still some good talent there.

Let’s start, as we did with the NL West, with the 2009 division winner, the Cardinals. The guy we need to watch here is rather obvious: Colby Rasmus. As a rookie in ’09, he put up “meh” numbers at the plate overall–a .311 wOBA–but his IsoP was a respectable .156. His fielding in center field was also impressive, as he posted a 13.4 UZR/150 in 124 games. In 2010, we should watch for Colby to continue his impressive fielding and also to improve on his hitting. He’s projected to wOBA anywhere from .329 (Marcel) to .343 (CHONE). Those numbers may not be “blow-you-away”, but paired with his fielding, they would make him about a three win player.

For the second place Cubs, there are two guys upon whom to keep an eye. The first is an old friend: Xavier Nady. After what was essentially a career year in ’08, Nady missed most of 2009 with an elbow injury and is now recovering from Tommy John Surgery. The list of position players coming back from a second TJS is rather small, so it will be very interesting to see how Xavier fares this year.

The second Cub to watch is Geovany Soto. After an impressive Rookie of the Year season in 2008, Soto disappointed in 2009. While the peripherals were pretty solid–.103 IsoD, .163 IsoP–his raw numbers were pretty bad: .218/.321/.381. Part of this could’ve been bad luck. His BABIP in 2008 was a robust .332, but was a meager .246 in 2009. Gevoany had a slight dip in Line Drive percentage and a slight uptick in Ground Ball percentage in 2009, and his Fly Ball percentage stayed essentially the same. While the rise in ground balls might suggest more hits (ground balls are more likely to sneak through the infield than fly balls are to drop in the outfield), it appears that they were gobbled up by infielders, which obviously led to more outs, as did the slight fall in line drives. If those numbers can rebound, it’s possible that the Cubs’ backstop will have another strong season.

Moving to Milwaukee, we move to the left side of the infield. With the trade of J.J. Hardy to the Twins, young Alcides Escobar will man shortstop for the Brew Crew. In 2009, he hit .304/.333/.381 in 38 games (134 PAs). Escobar is very fast and if he improves his patience at the plate a bit and plays well in the field, he’ll be a solid player for the Brewers in 2010.

Cincinnati’s Joey Votto turned some head last year after a second place ROY finish in ’08. He pounded the ball in ’09–.303/.414/.567–and after dealing with an anxiety issue, he seems poised to pick up in 2010 where he left off. He hit 25 home runs last year and playing in Cincy, he’s definitely got a chance to crack thirty in 2010. First base is already rich with talent–Pujols, Tex, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Youkilis–and Joey Votto is ready to climb into the ranks of a top first baseman in the Major Leagues.

The Astros don’t really have much going for them. There isn’t much exciting young talent patrolling Houston, so I’m going to go with the vet: Lance Berkman. I pick Fat Elvis for a simple reason: I don’t think we realize how good this dude has been in his career. His line sits at .299/.412/.555/.967/147+. In an 11 season career, he’s gone at least .300/.400/.500 seven times and has had an OBP of at least .420 four times. Last year was a “down” year for Berkman–.274/.399/.509 and his OPS+ was “only” 139. It will be interesting to see how Berkman recovers. This year, and the next ones, will be crucial in cementing his legacy. If there is a quick decline–unlikely–it may rob him of Hall of Fame inclusion. If he picks it back up–or just stays at his current pace–Berkman should be destined for Cooperstown.

Pittsburgh, baseball wise, doesn’t usually have much to look forward to. However, Andrew McCutchen could change that. He was very impressive in his rookie season–11.0% BB rate, .185 IsoP, .368 wOBA, 128 wRC+–and we should all be looking to see what he builds on in 2010. We’ve likely got a budding star on our hands and even if it’s out of a misplaced, and probably inappropriate, sense of pity, it’s nice to see the Pirates have a young star they’ve developed on the rise.

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Discussion: Would You Cut A-Rod?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 11:00 am 12 Responses »
Mar 112010

This is a question I raised on Twitter earlier this week, and I thought it might be fun to address it in a longer format: if you could have cut Alex Rodriguez at the start of this offseason (obviously theoretical, as there is no “cutting” in baseball), with the knowledge that he would sign with another club after doing so, would you have done it? While on the face of it, the suggestion seems ridiculous, I think there are plenty of reasons it would make sense. Let’s look at the pros and cons of such a move:

Pros: The most obvious reason that the Yankees would cut A-Rod is financial. Here are the terms of his contract, courtesy of Cot’s:

08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
$30M marketing agreement based on home run milestones ($6M each for reaching 660, 714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record)

Alex has 8 years and 186M dollars left on his deal, plus another 30M available in bonuses that he has a solid chance of reaching. After he resigned prior to the 2008 season, Dan Szymborski ran a Zips projection for the balance of the contract, and found the following:

The dollars and production start to be incongruent around 2013, and this projection was produced prior to Alex having major surgery and missing a month of the 2009 season. A similar projection run today would be even more frightening. As such, the last few years of Alex’s deal have a decent chance of being a disaster. If the Yankees were to cut Alex, they could take that same money and invest it in replacing his production and improving in multiple areas around the diamond. For example, you could have used that money this offseason to bring in Matt Holliday and Adrian Beltre, and likely would have lost little production.

Another reason that some might want to cut Alex is that he is always surrounded by drama. While I have contended that this is often through no fault of his own, it is simply the nature of being the game’s most expensive player that people will turn everything you do into a story. While this is not something that bothers me and would certainly not be a reason for me to cut him, I could understand if some people believe that it should at least be considered when weighing all options.

Cons: Alex is one of the best players in the game at this moment. While you could likely take his money and upgrade at a number of positions, it usually makes sense to concentrate as much value as possible in one position. Put differently, replacing a 7 win player with a 4 win guy and a 3 win guy means a loss in value, because it cost you an extra roster spot to create the same amount of value.

Now, the argument may be that as Alex ages, his production will decline to the point where that argument no longer holds true. For most clubs, this would mean that cutting Alex and reinvesting in younger players would be the most sensible solution. However, the Yankees can afford to carry some dead salary in the latter years of the deal in order to benefit the club now. Furthermore, the front-loaded nature of the contract will likely make the salary to production ratio a bit more palatable than it would be if the contract was considered in AAV terms. Finally, the publicity sure to follow Alex as he approaches various home run records will likely bring plenty of revenue to the Yankees, mostly in terms of merchandising, thereby offsetting some of the loss in value caused by declining production.

Personally, I would not have cut Alex, as the Yankees financial power allows me to sacrifice some money later for greater value now. However, I think it is a much closer call than it first appears. How about you? What would you have done?

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Yanks closing in on Cuban SS

Posted by Steve S. at 6:36 am 8 Responses »
Mar 112010

George King of the NY Post has the story. It’s a short piece, but one with some juicy nuggets throughout. So I’ll post it in its entirety and break in with comments:

According to sources, the Yankees remain the favorites to sign Cuban shortstop Adeinis Hechavarria.

However, they have company in chasing the 21-year-old who defected from Cuba last year.

“There are five teams that are interested,’’ a source said.

I would expect his agent to say nothing else.

The Yankees have long been the favorites to land Hechavarria for two reasons: They have the money, and they have spent more time than any team scouting him. They have seen him in open workouts in the Dominican Republic and he has been to their complex in the DR several times to work out. The most recent trip was last week.

“He has a body like (Alfonso) Soriano,” a talent evaluator said of Hechavarria. “And he can hit.’’

That doesn’t tell us much in terms of skills, but if his swing resembles Soriano’s then that would be something to get excited about.  Soriano had very quick hands that generated plus power.

The Red Sox gave Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias $8 million, and it’s believed Hechavarria is looking for a similar figure.

“He is very proud to point out that he was the shortstop and Iglesias the second baseman when they played on the Cuban (junior) team,” a Dominican scout said.

That means that he was considered to be the better defensive player by his coaches. Reports are that Hechavarria is considered to have more power than Inglesias as well. Given the large bonus the Sox gave Inglesias and the reports that he could play with the big league club as early as this season, that tells me he could be close to MLB ready.

Hechavarria could be the Yankees’ second baseman. With Derek Jeter set to sign a long-term deal at the end of the season and shortstop the only place he can play, the Yankees could trade Robinson Cano after next season and make room for Hechavarria.

Next season is the final leg of Cano’s four-year, $30 million deal. There are options for 2012 ($14 million) and 2013 ($15 million).

Really? I hope this is just speculation on King’s part. Robbie Cano was an elite performer at his position both offensively and defensively last year. It could just be an early shot in the coming Cano contract negotiation, where adding Hechavarria gives the team added leverage. But Robbie’s going nowhere.

“Things are going very well,’’ Hechavarria’s agent, Bart Hernandez, said. “We should have news soon. The market has been strong. I can’t put a timetable on it, we are engaged with teams.’’

Stay tuned. . .

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