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Giving credit to J.D. Drew

Posted by Chris H. at 6:39 pm 3 Responses »
Mar 312010

Unbeknownst to many baseball fans, for the past three seasons, the Boston Red Sox have had a secret weapon roaming their outfield and anchoring their lineup. Quietly, since donning the white and red and being treated to Neil Diamond on a regular basis, this particular player has produced with both his glove and his bat, to the tune of 10.4 WAR, the eighth best total for an outfielder in the American League since 2007. Yet, many are quick to ignore and neglect J.D. Drew, the silent yet productive player I speak of, in favor of discussing a David Ortiz or a Jason Bay. Yankee fans do this too, often underestimating the abilities Drew brings to the table, which is why I write this post.

Though I have already cited the value numbers at large, Drew would probably be considered a top five outfielder in the American League, WAR-wise, if it weren’t for his “poor” debut with Boston three years ago. In his first season in Beantown, Drew hit .270/.373/.423 and was worth just 1.4 WAR, as his defense was somewhat questionable – he posted an UZR of -3.1 – and his power never really materialized (he hit only 11 home runs). At the end of the year, because of his disappointing performance and a checkered health history, many wondered whether or not he was actually worth the five-year, $70M contract that the golden child, Theo Epstein, has provided him the winter prior.

However, in 2008, J.D. Drew demonstrated that he was no Nancy, rebounding to hit .280/.408/.519, with an UZR of 6.4 in right field and 19 home runs to boot. The quiet outfielder was valued at 4.2 WAR and would have had the highest wOBA in the American League that year at .400 if it had not been for some dude named Carlos Quentin and his .414 mark. In 2009, Drew further cemented his well-rounded, run saving and run producing ways, as he batted a robust .279/.392/.522, swatting 24 home runs, while making it look easy out in right field with an UZR of 10.5. It is difficult for me to say this being a Yankee fan and all, but the man can flat-out play and is worthy of his big deal. For whatever reason though, despite his talents, Drew is generally part of the Boston backdrop. Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are more valuable to the team, hence they receive and deserve more fanfare, however, Drew’s name should be mentioned in the same breathe as those two. Without him, the Sawx lineup would be significantly weaker.

As a Yankee fan, unless CC Sabathia is on the mound, I generally worry a great deal when Drew steps to the plate. I also worry when a Yankee hits a ball to right field, for I know that he can probably catch it if he can just get near it. As we reflect briefly on Drew’s tenure in Boston, it is clear that such concern is warranted and valid. His numbers over the past three years – well, his stats over the past two years in particular – indicate just how good he is (one of the best in the American League, in fact). When he is on the field, I worry for good reason and, to be honest, you should too.

Photo by Getty Images

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Running Game Should Again be Effective

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 1 Response »
Mar 312010

In 2009, the Yankees were middling in the stolen bases category (at least at first glance). They stole 111 bases, seventh in the American League. However, the Yankees were successful in their stolen base attempts 80% of the time, six percent better than the league average (74%).

No player was caught stealing more than five times (both Jeter and Gardner), but even they had high stolen base percentages (86% and 84% respectively). Johnny Damon was never caught stealing (12 SBs), and A-Rod and Melky were both caught only 2 times each (88 and 83 percent). The 2009 Yankees didn’t run all that often, but when they did, they made it safely. This running strategy is much more effective, especially considering the team, than just running whenever and risking unnecessary outs.

While the Yankees lost a good runner in Johnny Damon, they gained two good runners in Curtis Granderson and Randy Winn. Over the past three seasons, both have been very efficient on the basepaths. Winn’s averaged 19 steals and 2 caught stealings and Granderson has averaged 19 steals and 4 caught stealings. Those equate to a 90.48 success rate for Winn and an 82.61 success rate for Granderson. Add in the fact that Brett Gardner (86.67% for his short career) will likely get more time at the plate and (hopefully) on the bases, and the Yankees should again have a strong stolen-base game. They are a team built on efficiency–they get on base and hit lots of homers, the most efficient ways to score runs; they have a high amount of strikeout pitchers, the best way to get hitters out–and the running game is now a part of that. With runners who don’t get caught, the Yankees are simply adding another piece of ammunition to the firearm that is their offense.

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Food For Thought

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Mar 312010

Happy Wednesday afternoon, TYU readers. I’ve got some ideas that I’d like to briefly touch on, and of course I’d like your input as well.

–Will Andy Pettitte’s lack of meaningful Spring Training innings hurt him in the regular season? I’m not quite sure of this one, but I’d lean towards it hurting him a bit. I don’t think he’ll be awful or horribly ineffective, but I have a good feeling it will affect his stamina, at least for the first start or two.

–Can Sergio Mitre be effective a a long reliever? My first reaction is no, but I’m not a big Mitre fan to begin with. He’s looked pretty good in Spring Training, but that can be very deceptive. I would’ve preferred it if the Yankees kept Chad Gaudin, but that obviously didn’t happen. Anyway, Mitre’s lack of missing-bats-ability will likely hurt him as a reliever. His good control is helpful, but he does give up hard contact. Hopefully, he can carry his ST success with him to the regular season, but I’m not about to hold my breath. Trading him is an option, too, but the returns would be meager. Perhaps it’s better to just hold on to him and hope for the best.

–Does Marcus Thames really deserve his roster spot? I don’t think so, but sending Jamie Hoffmann back to the Dodgers pretty much seals that deal. I have to wonder if the Yankees would be better served taking Jon Weber with them to NY, even if he is left handed. Thames’ playing time will be very limited and he’ll give back almost all of his offensive value with probable poor defensive play.

–Will Ramiro Pena hit enough to keep his job? We all know Ramiro Pena can field like a pro, but I don’t think any of us are confident that he can even repeat last year with the bat. A related question is if we’ll see Kevin Russo in the utility role at some point. I think the answer to that question is yes. Eventually, Pena will have a bad stretch and he and Russo will swap places.

–Will the Yankees’ announcing cops. at least be respectable this year? Meh. I’m not holding my breath on this one, right guys? Sterling and Waldman are nails on a chalkboard, Kay is as full of self-importance as ever, John Flaherty is painfully boring, and David Cone is gone. The only acceptable voices on YES are Bob Lorenz–who’s sadly stuck in studio–and Ken Singleton, who has bouts with inconsistency. I dream of the day when the mute button is not an option.

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Should the Yankees trade Joba Chamberlain?

Posted by Chris H. at 11:00 am 22 Responses »
Mar 312010

The Yankees should trade Joba Chamberlain.

Yes, I said it. Now, before I am criticized – such a response is understandable – or, at the least, ridiculed for that statement, allow me to explain my perspective. First, from a macro standpoint, good starters are generally more valuable than good relievers. Let’s establish that much, at least. As Dave Allen of FanGraphs notes, “an elite reliever is worth about the same as a just slightly above average starter,” which underscores this notion of good starterdom versus good relieverdom, with good starterdom winning every time. With that said, moving from macro (general) to micro (specific), Joba Chamberlain’s value is intimately tied to his role on the Yankees. As a reliever, even an elite reliever, he is just not as valuable as he would be if he were an above average piece of the team’s starting pitching. Joba has that ability, though – to be an above average starter – and other ballclubs know that. They have seen it.

So, if the young righty is “stuck” in the Bronx bullpen, why not cash in?

Despite the face saving comments made recently by Yankee GM, Brian Cashman, now that Joba will be reinserted into the back-end of the bullpen, I, like Billy Eppler, truly doubt we will see him in the rotation in 2011 or beyond. It appears as though his Yankee career is destined to be that of a setup man, bridging the gap to the impregnable Mariano Rivera (until Rivera retires, at that point, if Joba is still around, the closer job would be his). If that is the case, why not move Joba now, while his value as a starter – his potential in that regard – is still high? Relievers are just not that valuable and can often be replaced. So, trade him for something more important than a reliever (this post can be applied later in the season, when a true need arises). If he were moved, I’m sure that a David Robertson, a Chan Ho Park, a Damaso Marte, or a Mark Melancon could replace his current role on the team.

Photo by Reuters Pictures

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Pinella looks forward, and looks back

Posted by Steve S. at 7:08 am No Responses »
Mar 312010

John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus posted his mid-week update yesterday, and had some amusing quotes from former Yankee and current Cubs manager Lou Pinella. Here’s the story:

Those who have been around Cubs manager Lou Piniella this spring say he seems rejuvenated. However, he takes exception to that observation. The Cubs finished second in the National League Central last season after winning the division the previous two years and a perception started to grow that the fiery skipper had lost his spark.

“I was hurt by it because that couldn’t be further from the truth,” Piniella told the Chicago Sun-Times. “I’ve got no quit in me. I never had and I never will. I’m very competitive.”

Piniella, though, admittedly toned down his on-field theatrics last season. He has come to understand that kicking dirt and his cap all over the infield during an argument with the umpire is not becoming of a 66-year-old man.

“‘I like myself a heck of a lot better, I’ll be honest with you,” Piniella said. ”I don’t like getting kicked out of games and sitting in my office and having a beer and thinking, ‘What the hell did I do that for? ”I know the fans enjoy a show. I remember when I first started managing, (Yankees owner George Steinbrenner) would call me into his office and say, ‘Look, part of your job is to put some fannies in the seats, and when you go out there to argue, put on a damn good show.’ And it worked then but it doesn’t now.”

Speculation that Piniella might retire after this season has also led some to believe he has mellowed. However, he says finishing second last year makes him hungrier than ever in 2010, even if he is now Sweet and More Mellow Lou.

‘Believe me, I come to the ballpark every day, and I want to get the job done for this club, for the new owners and for the city and the organization, and, of course, for the players,” Piniella said. “There’s no apathy in me, believe me. No. If there was any apathy in me at all, I’d go home. I want to win. The losses hurt.”

I find that highlighted part hilarious because I can relate 100%. Also, I think the fact that it doesn’t work now reflects the changing demographics of the game’s audience. When I was a kid in the 1970′s and went to a game with my Dad, the crowds were almost all men, with a few wives sprinkled in here and there. If you look at old photos of Baseball crowds, they are almost always exclusively all men. But now whenever I go to a game, I’ll see complete families with wives and daughters, guys with their girlfriends, pairs of women attending games. Even more so in the fancy new ballpark than in the old facility. The Yankee blogosphere has it’s share of blogs from the female perspective, with our very own Rebecca as a prime example. The gender composition of the Baseball fan base is different today than it was 40 years ago. As such, Pinella’s antics play differently today than they did in the 1970′s and 80′s. Baseball has grown in recent years to levels unseen in it’s history, so by it’s very nature that means that they’ve attracted groups beyond the traditional core audience. Pinella’s come to learn that he’s not just ‘hanging out with the boys’ anymore.

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Thames must earn it all season

Posted by Chris H. at 5:29 pm 1 Response »
Mar 302010

This spring, over 42 at-bats, Marcus Thames, the right-handed, power-hitting outfielder the Yankees signed to a minor-league deal for a base salary of $900k, is hitting a mere .143/.200/.286, while leading the club with 17 strikeouts. Now, spring statistics are generally hollow numbers, however, in some instances, particularly when a player is signed to a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training, the numbers can be poor enough to cause concern. Thames might actually be one of those cases. And, though a roster spot has always seemed within his reach despite the numbers – the Yankees seem to believe that they need a right-handed bench option, which Thames is – yesterday, GM Brian Cashman indicated that the Yankees could pursue another player if one becomes available.

“Right now, he’s the last man standing,” stated Cashman in relation to Thames after the 33-year old went 1-for-4 with a home run against the Orioles in a 11-7 Yankee victory. “But I still need him to compete for the job because I don’t know who might become available. I know this is where he wants to be.” Note Cashman’s comment about the potential availability of other players. Given that the season is starting shortly, this is mainly just motivational language, put forth to push Thames as he will likely face the left-handed Marc Rzepczynski of Toronto tonight. Yet, Cashman’s comment is interesting in that it confirms the Yankee roster is always open to interpretation. If another player “becomes available” that can possibly do a better job than Thames, the Yankees might be willing to give that person a look. Thames may not be doing much this spring and will probably make the team regardless of that fact, but, once spring training is in the rearview and the regular season is underway, he will have to fight to keep his spot as Cashman is certainly willing to adjust accordingly. The Yankees want a right-handed bench bat and if Thames won’t do the job, someone else will.

Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

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A Quick Look at the Revised SP Depth

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm No Responses »
Mar 302010

Last week was rather eventful for the Yankees’ pitching staff. It gained Phil Hughes as its fifth starting pitcher and lost Chad Gaudin as a long man/reliever/whatever he was going to be. Both of these moves obviously affected the Yankees’ depth at starting pitcher, so let’s look at how it’s going to shake out.

Alfredo Aceves

No matter who won the fifth starter’s competition, Joba or Phil, the pitching depth was likely to be hurt. While Brian Cashman hasn’t ruled out sending Chamberlain to AAA, I still think it’s unlikely (I hope this is what happens, but I’m not holding my breath). Because the loser, now Joba, will likely be relegated to the bullpen, the Yankees lose a starting pitcher and their depth takes a bit of a hit.

This leaves Alfredo Aceves and Sergio Mitre as the 6th and 7th starters as swingmen out of the bullpen. While this isn’t necessarily bad–either one would likely be in the starting rotation of many, many teams–I’d prefer it if these guys were the 7th/8th starters behind Joba.

After Aceves and Mitre, it gets kind of dicey. The next candidates are guys like Jason Hirsh, Ivan Nova, and Zach McAllister. Hirsh isn’t young, he just turned 27, but he’s not over the hill yet and he’s pitched very well since joining the Yankee organization. Nova had a solid season last year, but still has a way to go; the same goes for Z-Mac, whom I like a lot. It’s doubtful that these guys see any meaningful Major League time, but they’re there just in case. The fact of the matter is, after the 7th starter, most teams don’t have anything too great. If the Yankees have to count on these guys for meaningful innings, something as gone terribly wrong (see: Ponson, Sidney and Rasner, Darrell in 2008).

With Joba likely heading to the bullpen, the Yankees’ SP depth has gotten a little more shallow. It’s not bad by any means and with a starting five as strong as the Yankees’, it’s quite possible that no one past the sixth starter really matters this year. For the second straight year, I’m very confident in the Yankees’ pitching staff going into the season, no matter who’s taking the mound.

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Players to Watch, AL Central

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Mar 302010

With the start of the regular season less than one week away, I’m starting to wrap up my series on players to watch outside of Yankee-land. Today, we’ll swing into the NL Central:

At Target Field, it’s time to put up or shut up for Delmon Young. After lot’s of minor league hype and a respectable showing in 131 ABs in ’06 (.343 wOBA, 4.4 UZR), Young’s fallen off a bit. His wOBAs from ’07-’09 were .315, .324, and .312. This is not what Minnesota expected when they traded Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to the (Devil) Rays for Young. His batting averages have been good–.288, .290, .284–but his awful walk rates–3.8, 5.6, 2.9–and anemic bat–IsoPs of .119, .114, and .142–has held him back. If Young doesn’t get some patience and power (and improve on the field…back to back UZR marks of -16.8), he’ll be considered a big time bust.

For the Tigers, we’ll all have to keep an eye on a familiar face: Austin Jackson. We all know Jackson from his time in the Yankee farm system and we’ll definitely miss him. Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland has said Ajax will play CF and leadoff for Detroit from day one. This is a big assignment for a young guy who could probably stand to get some more seasoning in AAA. While part of me likes the aggressive move, this could be setting Jackson up to fail. I wish him luck, though.

Jake Peavy, presumably healthy, will pitch his first full season in the AL in ’10. After being one of baseball’s best for the last few years, we’ll have to see how he adapts to the big boy league (and a relatively small park in Chicago). Peavy’s a great pitcher and shouldn’t have much trouble adjusting to life in the American League. No matter what, the White Sox do have a pretty strong rotation and could make a run at the division title.

That Grady Sizemore’s 111 OPS+ was a disappointment last year shows us just how good he’s really been. The Indians won’t have a lot to celebrate in 2010, but Sizemore should be just fine. I think he’ll rebound just fine from an injury filled ’09 (not to mention some bad BABIP luck) and return to his ’05-’08 (128 OPS+) form.

Oh Kansas City. What can we say about you, Royals? I’d say “Well, at least you’re not the Astros” but you’re worse off than they are. There are three guys worth watching here, though: Zach Greinke (obvious), David DeJesus (slightly less obvious), and Alex Gordon. I’m not going to waste words on why we should pay attention to ZG, but DeJesus is a fairly solid player and more attention should be paid to him. As for Gordon, he’s in a similar boat to Delmon Young. However, Gordon’s had much more Major League success and has clearly been the better player. It’s unlikely that Gordon ever becomes the star we thought he’d be, but he can still be an above-average player. Let’s hope he takes a step in that direction this season.

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Two-inning appearances for Joba?

Posted by Chris H. at 11:23 am 2 Responses »
Mar 302010


Could Joba Chamberlain pitch multiple innings – two at the most, the seventh and the eighth – out of the bullpen this season? According to Joe Girardi, it remains a possibility. “I think it’s something that you can look at,” noted Girardi on Saturday, after Joba’s first “official” appearance as a reliever, in which he tossed a single scoreless inning against Detroit. “A lot of that would depend on the group as a whole, and how they’re doing,” Girardi added. “Mo did it very well in ’96–probably as good as it’s ever been done. Because [Joba] is stretched out, he has the ability to do that.”

If the Yankees actually view Joba as a future starter, allowing the young righty to throw two innings in certain outings – not all, but some – would provide valuable opportunities to work on his secondary pitches. However, as Girardi outlined, that decision will depend on how the bullpen, which Joba is again a part of, is performing collectively.

Photo by Reuters Images

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Aceves' back may open door for Logan

Posted by Steve S. at 6:45 am 9 Responses »
Mar 302010

In his latest post, Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave discusses something that been quietly bubbling under the surface this spring. Alfredo Aceves has been having back trouble for his past few starts, and he may begin the season on the DL. That would open the door for a 2nd Lefty, either Boone Logan or Royce Ring. He writes:

All spring long Joe Girardi has expressed a desire to carry two lefties in the bullpen. Given the team’s construction, however, that didn’t seem realistic. Seven pitchers lay claim to the seven bullpen spots, only three of whom have options. With David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, and Aceves ready for significant roles, there is no way the Yankees would option any of them. It seemed for a while that Girardi would have to settle for a bunch of righties who fare well against both same and opposite handed batters. The Aceves injury, however, now appears to open a spot for either Boone Logan or Royce Ring, both of whom have fared well this spring.

Logan would be the most likely choice since he’s already on the 40-man roster. While a 2nd Lefty is always nice, it’s not something essential. You’re generally better off going with your 12 best pitchers than taking a lesser one based on handedness. Many of the Yankee relievers get batters out on both sides of the plate, and Mariano Rivera has always been better facing Lefty batters throughout his career. Dave Robertson actually has a reverse platoon split going all the way back to his days in the minor leagues. Robertson is for all intents and purposes your 2nd lefty specialist. The biggest concern is the ability of  to Damaso Marte to stay healthy, which is something we’ve yet to see in his time with the Yanks. But you’ll simply cross that bridge when you come to it. Personally, I’d rather get another look at Mark Melancon, whose upside is far greater than that of Boone Logan or Royce Ring.

Who would you take?

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